ScalpingX

$BASED - Mcap 20.28M$ - 24h Sentiment +6.00 Bullish

SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry contains POC + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 0.83% wide. The uptrend has lasted 3 hours 59 minutes, with the largest recorded price increase at 7.68%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.

📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR AND GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 15/08/2026

The latest statistical data shows that the correlation between FGI and Win Rate remains weak and continues to lean negative, with r ≈ -0.285. This suggests that FGI is not suitable as a standalone tool for determining order entries, but it can still be useful for quantifying risk. Trading performance generally tends to deteriorate as market sentiment moves into extreme optimism, making FGI more appropriate as an early risk-warning indicator rather than a signal for expanding profit expectations.

Below is a summary of Win Rate (WR), minimum breakeven R:R, and the number of recorded days (n) across different sentiment zones:

🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R=1:1.47 • n=25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R=1:1.22 • n=215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.2% • R:R=1:1.21 • n=150
😰 Fear (20–40): WR 47.1% • R:R=1:1.12 • n=269
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.4% • R:R=1:0.91 • n=115

The percentage of days with performance above the overall average win rate of 46.75% by sentiment zone:

🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
🤤 Greed: 36.3%
😐 Neutral: 38.0%
😰 Fear: 53.9%
😱 Extreme Fear: 67.8%

➤ Short-term traders can use FGI as a guide for adjusting expected profit targets when entering trades:

📈 When FGI is high, higher profit expectations may be required to maintain a sufficiently favorable R:R ratio and compensate for the lower win rate.

📉 When FGI is low, profit expectations can be reduced to increase capital turnover and make profit realization easier.

#TradingPerformance $GRAM $NVDAB $AAPLB

Update 2026-08-15, based on community-wide trading

📊 The average win rate is 46.75%

🏆 The highest daily win rate was 78.08% on 2026-04-01. The lowest daily win rate was 15.69% on 2026-01-25

📅 Wednesday has the highest average win rate at 47.11%. Sunday has the lowest average win rate at 46.57%

⏱️ The highest 7-day average win rate was 63.27% for the period ending 2026-04-05. The lowest was 35.60% for the period ending 2026-06-24

⚖️ The number of days with a win rate above the overall average is 360. The number of days with a win rate at or below the overall average is 414

📈 The number of days with a win rate above 50% is 220. The number of days with a win rate between 40% and 50% is 417. The number of days with a win rate below 40% is 137

#TradingStatistics $BNB $HYPE $SOL

8月10〜15日の暗号資産市場概況：ビットコインは65,000ドルから後退、資金フローとボラティリティが落ち着く

📉 ビットコインは週初め、約64,800〜65,200ドルで推移し、一時65,300ドルを上回ったものの、その上昇を維持できず、週末には62,800〜63,100ドルへと下落しました。イーサリアムはより狭いレンジで約1,880〜1,910ドルを中心に取引され、一方でより広い市場は週末にかけて流動性が薄れ、横ばい〜やや弱い状態へと移行しました。

🏦 スポット型ビットコインETFは週の序盤に堅調な資金流入を記録し、機関投資家の需要が依然として存在することを示しました。ただし、その後の複数の流出セッションが短期的な勢いを弱め、選択的な積み増しと利益確定の入り混じった状況を反映しています。

📊 BTCとETHのファンディングレートは概ね中立〜わずかにプラス圏を維持した一方、オープン・インタレストは急激な拡大が見られず、清算（リクイデーション）も穏やかな水準にとどまりました。オプション市場では短期のビットコインが示すインプライド・ボラティリティが引き続き圧縮しており、1週間のATM IVは約26%で、直近での急なブレイクアウトに対する期待が限定的であることを示唆しています。

🐋 オンチェーンデータでは、主要取引所へのBTCのネット流入が確認され、短期の売り手側の供給増につながる可能性があります。同時に、大口（クジラ）ウォレットは引き続き積み増しており、短期の需給圧力と中期的な構造的な下支えとの間にズレが生じています。

💵 ステーブルコインの時価総額は概ね横ばいで、追加の新規流動性が強い値動きを生むほどにはまだ拡大していないことを示しています。アルトコインは選別色が強く、$AVAX 、$ARB 、$APT 、そしてSEIを含むプロジェクトでのトークン解禁（アンロック）が、局所的な需給の売り圧力を押し上げる可能性があります。

🔎 目先では、ビットコインにとって$62,500〜$63,000が重要なサポート領域であり、価格構造を改善するには$65,000〜$65,500を取り戻すことが鍵になります。ETFフロー、流動性、IVはいまだ強い方向性シグナルに欠けているため、新たな材料（触媒）が現れるまで、レンジにとどまる取引が優勢となるかもしれません。

#CryptoMarket

Global chemicals market overview for the week of August 10–15, 2026 showed rising cost pressure from energy, while weak downstream demand continued to limit broad-based price gains

🛢 Crude oil’s weekly advance continued to spill over into petrochemicals and feedstocks across Asia. China methanol rose around 4.9–5%, butadiene gained nearly 5%, while benzene, propylene, styrene and PTA were generally steadier or posted mild recoveries after earlier declines.

🏭 Polymers reacted more slowly, with PP and LLDPE in China rising only around 1.5–1.7%, while PVC was broadly flat. Higher naphtha and cracker feedstock costs supported prices, but cautious demand from packaging, automotive and construction limited producers’ ability to fully pass costs on to buyers.

🌾 Fertilizers remained mixed as China urea fell around 1.7%, while ammonia and phosphate prices stayed elevated. The divergence suggests improving urea supply, while other chains continue to reflect the lingering impact of earlier Middle East supply disruptions.

🌍 Elsewhere, excess capacity in Asia continued to pressure caustic soda, acetic acid and parts of the phenolics chain. No new systemic plant disruptions emerged during the week, meaning geopolitical risks were reflected mainly through energy, naphtha and logistics costs rather than widespread product shortages.

📊 Overall, the market remains more “cost-push” than “demand-pull.” Over the next 1–2 weeks, petrochemicals may stay supported if crude remains elevated, PE/PP could trade sideways to slightly higher, while urea may remain under pressure if supply continues to improve. Hormuz developments and crude oil prices remain the key variables to watch.

#ChemicalsMarket $CL $NATGAS $BNB

Global Energy Market Overview for August 10–15, 2026 — Hormuz risks lift oil prices while demand signals remain cautious

🛢️ Crude oil ended the week up around 5–6%, with Brent near $88.5 per barrel and WTI around $82.4. The main drivers were stalled U.S.–Iran negotiations, attacks on oil tankers, and concerns that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could remain constrained.

📦 However, underlying supply-demand conditions do not fully support a sustained rally. U.S. crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels, the largest increase in more than 3.5 years, while both OPEC and the IEA lowered their 2026 oil demand outlooks. At the same time, the IEA estimates the market is still facing a supply deficit of around 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter due to Hormuz-related disruptions.

🚢 Physical market tightness remains visible in shipping and refining. VLCC freight rates stayed above $100,000 per day on several major routes, while diesel and jet fuel crack spreads remained elevated amid constrained refining capacity and relatively tight middle-distillate supplies.

🔥 Natural gas markets continued to diverge by region. European TTF and Asian JKM prices remained supported by LNG supply risks and import competition, while U.S. Henry Hub held around $2.7–3 per MMBtu thanks to strong domestic production and relatively comfortable inventories.

🌏 Asian demand has yet to show a strong recovery, with Chinese crude imports remaining below normal levels in recent months. This has helped limit some of oil’s upside despite persistent geopolitical premiums and elevated logistics costs.

📊 In the near term, oil prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments around Hormuz. Continued restrictions on flows through the strait could keep prices elevated, while diplomatic progress, further U.S. inventory builds, or weaker-than-expected demand data could trigger a correction.

#EnergyMarket $CL $NATGAS $BNB

Agricultural Market Overview for the Week of August 10–15, 2026

🌾 Agricultural markets leaned positive over the past week, led by grains, with the August 12 WASDE report serving as the main catalyst. USDA cut U.S. corn yield to 180.7 bushels per acre and lowered ending stocks to around 1.653 billion bushels, providing strong support for corn prices after the release.

🌽 Wheat also strengthened as Black Sea logistics risks increased. Operations at several Russian ports faced disruptions, while USDA lowered its wheat export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine. Supply concerns encouraged buyers to seek alternative origins and added further support to CBOT prices.

🌱 Soybeans posted more moderate gains as the U.S. supply outlook remained relatively balanced. Sinograin auctions and the potential for stronger purchases of U.S. soybeans supported near-term demand, although large Brazilian supplies continued to limit upside. Conab currently estimates Brazil’s total grain production at around 360.8 million tonnes.

🍬 Soft commodities were mixed. Sugar stood out with a weekly gain of around 9.5% amid weather concerns, while coffee and cocoa remained under pressure as markets assessed a more favorable supply outlook. Speculative flows were generally more concentrated in grains.

📊 Looking ahead, markets are likely to focus on U.S. Crop Progress data, Corn Belt weather, actual export demand and developments in the Black Sea. Corn and wheat retain support following WASDE, although ample South American supply and improving weather conditions could limit further gains.

#AgriculturalMarkets $GRASS $CAKE $BNB

Global Equity Market Overview, August 10–15: Asia Leads as U.S. Stocks Hold Near Record Highs

🌍 Global equity markets remained divided over the past week. In the U.S., the S&P 500 gained around 0.4% and stayed near record territory, while the Nasdaq edged higher and the Dow Jones fell about 0.6%. Europe was mostly flat to slightly lower, while Japan and South Korea stood out on strength in semiconductors, memory and AI-related expectations.

🇺🇸 U.S. economic data generally pointed to easing price pressures and softer demand. CPI, PPI and retail sales reinforced expectations that the Fed may not need to tighten further in September, supporting risk assets. At the same time, weaker consumer signals increased attention on the pace of economic cooling.

💻 Q2 earnings continued to provide support as corporate results remained broadly solid. Within technology, flows showed signs of broadening beyond selected mega-caps toward memory, storage and AI infrastructure, while Japan and South Korea benefited more directly from semiconductor strength.

🔄 Market leadership also became more diversified. Energy was supported by oil prices and Hormuz tensions, while Financials and Defense improved and small- and mid-cap stocks participated more strongly in several sessions. Consumer Discretionary lagged as the U.S. consumption outlook became more cautious.

⚠️ Oil volatility and geopolitical risks remain potential sources of rapid sentiment shifts, although they were not enough to reverse the broader weekly trend. The VIX stayed low, indicating relatively stable risk sentiment.

📊 In the near term, the bias remains sideways to slightly positive if U.S. data continue to soften and earnings remain stable. Markets will focus next week on Fed signals, remaining earnings releases and oil developments to assess whether the current rotation can broaden further.

#GlobalEquities $NVDAB $AAPLB $GOOGL.US

8月10〜15日の世界の金属市場概況：金は回復を継続、銅がベースメタルをけん引

🟡 過去1週間、金属市場では明確な分岐が見られました。貴金属は、より弱い米ドルと低い米国債利回りに支えられた一方、ベースメタルは在庫状況や供給リスクに対してより強く反応しました。夏場の流動性が比較的薄いこともあり、市場の全体的なボラティリティは抑えられました。

🥇 金は回復をさらに進め、週の終盤にかけて横ばいで推移する前に、約2か月ぶりの高値圏まで一時的に到達しました。米国のデータを受けたFRB（連邦準備制度）の見通しの軟化、ETFへの資金流入、そしてくすぶる地政学リスクが引き続き支援材料となりました。銀は相対的に優位な値動きとなり、金の強さに加えて、工業需要の追い風も受けました。

🔶 ベースメタルの中で際立ったのは銅で、価格は高水準に近い水準を維持しました。LME在庫は引き続き減少したのに対し、金属が米国に流入したことでCOMEXの在庫は増加し、国内以外の供給可能性が引き締まりました。アンファガスタはロス・ペラレスでの混乱を受けて生産ガイダンスを引き下げ、またインドネシアでの製錬上の問題が、より広範な供給懸念を押し広げています。

🏭 鋅（亜鉛）とアルミニウムも、低い在庫と生産リスクによる下支えを受けました。ニッケルは、市場がインドネシア産鉱石の供給増の可能性を織り込むにつれて出遅れました。鉄鉱石、鉄鋼、そして電池関連の金属は、従来型の工業需要が限定的にしか改善しなかったことから、相対的に弱めの動きが続きました。

📊 総じて、注目すべき主要な金属は金と銅です。金は主にマクロ要因によって動かされている一方、銅はより直接的に、現物市場の逼迫によって支えられています。来週は、米ドル、米国債利回り、中国の指標、ジャクソンホール、そしてチリとインドネシアにおける供給動向が、引き続き重要な市場ドライバーとなる可能性があります。

#Metals $XAU $XAG $COPPER

Weekly Forex Market Overview 10–15 Aug: USD Weakens as GBP and CAD Lead G10

📉 The USD came under pressure this week as July CPI and PPI both cooled, while Retail Sales fell 0.6% month-on-month. The softer data reduced expectations for further aggressive Fed tightening, pushed short-term US yields lower, and left the DXY ending the week around 99.7–99.9.

🇬🇧 GBP ranked among the strongest G10 currencies, with GBP/USD holding above 1.350. UK Q2 GDP grew 0.4% q/q, reinforcing the view that the British economy remains relatively resilient compared with the US and supporting sterling.

🇨🇦 CAD also posted a positive week as USD/CAD fell toward 1.387–1.393. The Canadian dollar was supported by a softer USD, relatively stable oil prices, and potential short covering as bearish CAD positioning remained elevated.

🇪🇺 EUR/USD held around 1.155–1.157 with a mild upside bias, while USD/JPY recovered toward 159.0–159.5. The yen remained pressured by interest-rate differentials and carry trades, suggesting the impact of previous intervention is gradually fading.

🏦 The RBA kept rates at 4.35% and Norges Bank held at 4.25%, while both maintained relatively hawkish guidance. This policy divergence provided some support for AUD and NOK as the Fed outlook became less restrictive.

📊 In the near term, the USD retains a soft bias if US data continues to avoid renewed strength. EUR/USD could move toward 1.160–1.165, while USD/JPY may test 160 if carry demand persists.

⚠️ Key risks remain centered on Hormuz and oil prices. A sharp rise in energy costs could revive inflation concerns and support the USD, while thin summer liquidity may keep FX markets largely range-bound until a stronger catalyst emerges.

#Forex $USDC $USDE $USDS