ScalpingX

Australia Opposes New U.S. Tariffs as Markets Await Negotiation Signals

🇦🇺 Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Canberra would raise its tariff concerns with President Donald Trump at every level of the bilateral relationship, while describing the 12.5% duty on Australian goods as unjustified.

📦 The measure could pressure exports including beef, wine, agricultural products, minerals and processed goods, mainly through higher costs and narrower profit margins.

🤝 Australia is likely to prioritize dialogue and seek tariff exemptions or reductions for strategic products rather than retaliate directly. The deep alliance between the two countries may preserve room for negotiation.

📊 The broader impact on Australian growth is expected to remain limited, although exporters may face short-term volatility. Markets will focus on upcoming high-level talks and whether the U.S. adjusts its policy in the coming weeks.

#AustraliaTrade $BNB $BTC $AR

$LA - Mcap 13.6M$ - 24h Sentiment +2.91 Bullish

SC02 H1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 8.04% wide. The uptrend has lasted 3 days 6 hours, with the largest recorded price increase at 42.60%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.

$KAITO - Mcap 285.69M$ - 24h Sentiment Neutral

SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 1.56% wide. The uptrend has lasted 5 hours 25 minutes, with the largest recorded price increase at 17.30%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.

$BOME - Mcap 35.52M$ - 24h Sentiment +5.35 Bullish

SC02 M5 - pending Long order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 3.29% wide. The uptrend has lasted 20 hours 20 minutes, with the largest recorded price increase at 26.75%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.

📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & MARKET SENTIMENT INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 25/07/2026

The latest statistics show that the correlation between the FGI and Win Rate remains weak and continues to be negative (r ≈ -0.289). This further supports the view that the FGI is not suitable for predicting price direction or determining entry points. However, it still has practical value for quantifying order risk.

Overall trading performance tends to decline as market sentiment moves into extreme optimism. Therefore, the FGI is better used as an early risk-warning indicator rather than a signal for increasing profit expectations.

Below is a summary of Win Rate (WR), minimum breakeven R:R, and the number of recorded days (n) across each sentiment zone:

🤑 Extreme Greed (≥80): WR 40.5% • R:R = 1:1.47 • n = 25
🤤 Greed (60–80): WR 45.1% • R:R = 1:1.22 • n = 215
😐 Neutral (40–60): WR 45.2% • R:R = 1:1.21 • n = 150
😨 Fear (20–40): WR 47.0% • R:R = 1:1.13 • n = 248
😱 Extreme Fear (<20): WR 52.4% • R:R = 1:0.91 • n = 115

The percentage of days with performance above the overall average of 46.73% in each sentiment zone:

🤑 Extreme Greed: 8.0%
🤤 Greed: 36.3%
😐 Neutral: 38.0%
😨 Fear: 53.2%
😱 Extreme Fear: 67.8%

➤ Short-term traders can use the FGI as a reference for adjusting expected profit targets when entering trades:

📈 When the FGI is high, traders should increase their expected profit target to maintain a sufficiently large R:R and compensate for the lower win rate.

📉 When the FGI is low, traders may reduce their expected profit target to accelerate capital turnover and realize profits more easily.

#TradingPerformance $BNB $SOL $ROBO

Updated on 2026-07-25, based on trading data from the entire community:

📊 The average win rate is 46.73%.

🏆 The highest daily win rate was 78.08% on 2026-04-01, while the lowest was 15.69% on 2026-01-25.

📅 Wednesday has the highest average win rate at 47.13%, while Thursday has the lowest at 46.45%.

⏱️ The best seven-day period ended on 2026-04-05, with an average win rate of 63.27%. The weakest period ended on 2026-06-24, with 35.60%.

⚖️ There were 347 days with a win rate above the overall average and 406 days with a win rate at or below the average.

📈 There were 214 days with a win rate above 50%, 405 days between 40% and 50%, and 134 days below 40%.

#TradingData $BNB $XMR $TRX

Crypto Consolidates in a Narrow Range as ETF Inflows Improve but Fear Continues to Dominate

📊 The cryptocurrency market traded largely in consolidation during July 20–26, with total market capitalization holding near USD 2.28–2.29 trillion. Bitcoin moved between USD 63,700 and USD 66,900, reaching a weekly high near USD 66,910 before retreating to around USD 64,100–64,280 by the weekend.

💰 Renewed inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs provided notable support, helping the market absorb part of the selling pressure. Ethereum remained near USD 1,860–1,870 and showed relative strength against Bitcoin in several sessions, although a clear upward trend has yet to emerge.

😟 The Fear & Greed Index remained in the Fear zone at approximately 35–36 points, indicating that investors were still reluctant to increase risk exposure. Tests of the USD 64,000–65,000 area continued to trigger long liquidations, but no systemically significant liquidation event occurred.

💵 Stablecoin market capitalization stayed near USD 309–310 billion and increased by roughly USD 1 billion within a single day at one point. This suggests that liquidity is accumulating within the ecosystem, although much of the capital remains on the sidelines rather than rotating aggressively into altcoins or DeFi.

🔓 Supply pressure continued to drive divergence across the altcoin market, with total token unlocks exceeding USD 166 million during the week. Assets facing large unlocks relative to their circulating supply may remain more volatile than the broader market.

📈 Many investors expect Bitcoin to continue trading between USD 62,000 and USD 68,000. Holding above USD 64,000 and breaking through USD 66,000 alongside sustained ETF inflows could open a move toward USD 68,000–70,000. Conversely, losing the USD 63,000–64,000 support zone could extend the correction toward USD 60,000–62,000.

#CryptoMarket $BNB $XRP $BTC

Chemical Markets Diverge as Polymer Prices Support Earnings but Demand Recovers Slowly

🧪 The global chemical market delivered mixed signals during July 20–26. Higher polymer prices continued to support major producers’ earnings, while end-market demand remained uneven and Middle Eastern supply recovered only gradually.

📈 Dow reported second-quarter revenue of $12.1 billion, up 20% year on year, with Packaging & Specialty Plastics sales rising 27% to $6.4 billion. Local polyethylene prices increased by around 30% across regions, helping offset slightly lower volumes and planned maintenance costs.

🏭 BASF also posted preliminary revenue of €17.2 billion and EBITDA before special items of €2.4 billion, while raising its full-year outlook to €6.9–7.7 billion. The figures indicate that stronger pricing and cost-optimization programs are providing meaningful support to industry profitability.

🌍 Regional differences are becoming more pronounced. The United States retains an advantage from low-cost ethane, Europe remains pressured by high energy expenses, and China continues expanding capacity despite thin margins. Japan and South Korea are therefore accelerating the rationalization of ethylene capacity.

📉 Across product chains, polyethylene and packaging-related materials remain relatively resilient, while PVC, polyurethane and construction-linked chemicals continue to weaken. Ammonia, urea and propylene oxide are also trending lower as supply normalizes, while caustic soda is holding up better due to demand from alumina, paper and water treatment.

♻️ Longer-term trends continue to favor chemical recycling, lower-carbon feedstocks and portfolio optimization. Many investors expect leading producers to preserve margins if polymer prices decline only moderately, although projected global chemical production growth of around 1.8–2% suggests a slow and uneven recovery rather than a strong new upcycle.

#ChemicalMarket $BNB $LDO $XLM

ホルムズが原油を急騰させる—世界のエネルギー市場は高いボラティリティに直面

🛢 7月20〜24日の週、世界のエネルギー市場は米国とイランの緊張と、ホルムズ海峡を通じた供給途絶リスクに支配された。ブレントは一時1バレル=100ドルを上回ったものの、最終的には96.78ドル付近で着地し、金曜に約4%下落した一方、週全体ではおよそ12%上昇した。WTIは1バレル=89〜90ドル前後で終了した。

🚢 ホルムズ経由のタンカー往来が減少したことに加え、海上輸送費や戦争リスク保険料の上昇が、原油価格に大きな地政学プレミアムを上乗せした。ただし、パキスタンと中国が和平協議を後押ししているという報道が利益確定を促し、市場が外交シグナルに敏感であることを浮き彫りにした。

📦 米国の商業原油在庫は200万バレル増えて411.7百万バレルとなったが、5年平均を約6%下回ったままだった。製油所稼働率は約96%で推移。高水準のクラックスプレッドが精製マージンを下支えし、ガソリン、軽油、ジェット燃料の価格に上昇圧力をかけている。

🔥 供給懸念は天然ガス市場にも波及した。アジアのスポットLNG価格は、カタールやその他中東湾岸の産油国からの輸出が妨げられるのではないかという懸念から、1MMBtuあたり22ドルへ向けて上昇した。一方、米国のヘンリーハブ価格は2.87〜2.90ドル付近で比較的安定していた。この差は、アジアと欧州が中東のLNGへの依存度が高いことを反映している。

📉 魅力の薄い中国の原油輸入が、世界の原油価格の上値を抑える助けになった。とはいえ、米国の戦略備蓄が約311.4百万バレルまで低下していることや、シェール生産者が生産を素早く増やせる余地が限られていることから、世界の供給バッファは薄くなりつつあるとの見方が広がっている。

📊 短期的には、多くの投資家がブレントが92〜105ドルの範囲で取引されると予想している。重要な外交の進展があれば価格は90〜95ドルへ押し戻される可能性がある一方、ホルムズ経由で攻撃が再燃したり混乱が長引けば、原油はすぐに105〜110ドルへ上がる恐れがある。

#EnergyMarkets $CL $NATGAS $BNB

Global Stocks Diverge as Capital Rotates Away from AI and Toward Defensive Sectors

📉 Global equities ended the July 20–24 week with a sharp regional divergence. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.1%, and the Dow Jones declined 0.4%, marking a second consecutive weekly drop for major US indices. Meanwhile, the STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.47%, showing greater resilience.

💻 AI and semiconductor stocks remained the main source of pressure as investors reassessed elevated valuations and the returns generated by rapidly rising capital expenditure. Alphabet fell around 7% after raising its capex outlook, while Tesla dropped nearly 15% amid weaker profits and concerns over AI investment costs. The sell-off spread across Asia, with the KOSPI falling about 5.7% and the Nikkei 225 losing nearly 2.7% on Friday.

🛢 Escalating US–Iran tensions pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel before it eased to around $96.78. Oil still gained roughly 8–10% over the week, reviving inflation concerns and keeping the US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.7%, adding further pressure on highly valued growth stocks.

🔄 Sector performance suggests capital is rotating rather than leaving the market entirely. Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary both declined around 6%, while Utilities gained approximately 2.3% and Industrials rose 1.6%. Energy, financials, and selected defensive sectors also maintained relative strength.

📊 Many investors are watching the 7,300–7,350 area on the S&P 500. Holding this zone, combined with Brent falling below $95 and resilient results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, could support a recovery toward 7,500–7,550. Weak Big Tech guidance or further escalation in Iran could instead send the index closer to 7,200.

👀 The Federal Reserve meeting, oil prices, and the quality of earnings from major technology companies will determine whether the current decline remains a normal unwinding of crowded positions or develops into a deeper correction.

#GlobalStocks $NVDAB $INTCB $GOOGLB

Precious metals lose safe-haven momentum as US yields and the dollar rise

🟡 The global metals market showed clear divergence during the week of July 20–25. Despite escalating US–Iran tensions and risks around the Strait of Hormuz pushing oil prices higher, gold and silver failed to establish a sustained uptrend as US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened.

📉 Gold briefly climbed toward $4,130 per ounce before retreating to around $4,050–$4,070. The move suggests that the higher opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets outweighed safe-haven demand, with the US 10-year yield reaching approximately 4.71% and the DXY approaching 101.5.

⚪ Silver was more volatile, rising close to $60 before correcting toward $58. Demand from solar energy, electric vehicles and electronics continues to support the longer-term outlook, but near-term price action remains highly sensitive to yields, the dollar and broader risk sentiment.

🟠 Copper remained comparatively resilient at around $6.30–$6.34 per pound, supported by structural demand from electrification, AI data centers and renewable energy. Among base metals, nickel held relatively firm, while lead and iron ore faced greater pressure from elevated inventories and weak Chinese steel demand.

📊 Many investors are now watching the $4,000–$4,020 support zone for gold and $57–$57.50 for silver. Holding these levels could preserve the current consolidation structure, while a decisive breakdown may extend the corrective move.

🔎 Next week, metals will be heavily influenced by the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, oil prices and developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Gold needs to reclaim $4,150 to improve momentum, while copper may continue trading within $6.20–$6.50 per pound unless growth data weakens significantly.

#MetalsMarket $XAUT $XAG $COPPER