US jobless claims stay below 200,000 as factory price pressures rise ahead of payrolls

📉 US initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 in the week ending September 26, below the 200,000 forecast and marking a third straight week under that threshold. Continuing claims also declined to 1.701 million, the lowest since April 2023.

🏭 Challenger data showed US employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from August and 20% from a year earlier. The picture still points to limited layoffs, even as hiring remains relatively cautious.

📈 At the same time, ISM Manufacturing held at 54.5 while the Prices Paid index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1. A labor market that has yet to weaken materially, combined with stronger input-cost pressure, keeps constraints on the Fed’s room to ease.

⏳ September payrolls due later today will provide the next major test of whether labor conditions are genuinely cooling.

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