老李迫击炮

【Nov 11 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Storage stocks rebounded, outperforming the U.S. “Magnificent Seven” by nearly 6 percentage points; Nvidia saw a huge increase in holdings.
2. Analysis: Warsh’s “relinquishing of authority” is causing the Fed’s decision-making process to spiral out of control; October data suggest inflation may be temporary.
3. Institutional report: In a rare wave of risk reduction not seen in a decade, global equity hedge funds accelerated their retreat in November, while deleveraging remains incomplete.
4. Viewpoint: Bitcoin treasury companies are showing signs of “capitulation”—the previous three instances were all buying opportunities.

From the close of the sharp sell-off on Nov 5 (U.S. Eastern Time) through Nov 10, four storage chip stocks, including Micron and Western Digital, rebounded by an average of about 8.2%, clearly outperforming the U.S. Magnificent Seven, which edged up just 2.3% over the same period. Micron led the gains, rising nearly 10.5%, while Nvidia bucked the trend and fell about 7%. However, this outperformance was largely driven by a roughly 8% surge on Nov 9 alone. Measured against their closing prices before the sharp drop, storage stocks are still down more than 11% overall and have yet to recover their losses. Meanwhile, the notional open interest in options contracts on Micron, SanDisk, and others shrank by tens of millions of dollars, suggesting that buyers chasing the rally lack conviction.
For crypto markets, rebounds in storage and computing-power stocks are often seen as a sign of renewed risk appetite for tech, and if the gains continue, they could help improve sentiment toward BTC. But the more noteworthy development is the sign of “capitulation” among Bitcoin treasury companies: their cumulative purchases-to-sales ratio has fallen below 90%. This has happened only three times historically, and each instance coincided with a temporary market opportunity. Meanwhile, large holders sold more than 34,000 BTC in a single week (worth about $2.6 billion), while Ethereum whales also trimmed their holdings slightly. Investors are testing the waters for bargains at lower prices, but are also holding back amid macroeconomic uncertainty. BTC is therefore expected to continue trading sideways as it searches for a short-term bottom.

【November 9 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. This week’s macro outlook: Jensen Huang’s alleged affair could become an AI “black swan”; U.S. CPI data and neocloud company earnings are worth watching.
2. The U.S. Secretary of State said Iran’s conditions are completely unacceptable, and the two sides remain far from a breakthrough agreement.
3. Analysis: After news of Jensen Huang’s alleged affair broke, he may step down as NVIDIA CEO and devote considerable energy to family matters.
4. Analysis: On-chain data reveals genuine fear in BTC: long-term holders are “capitulating,” while panic selling is accelerating the market cleanup.

U.S. stocks faced a series of tests this week. NVIDIA came under selling pressure amid a personal scandal involving its founder, Jensen Huang, at one point plunging more than 4% intraday. U.S. inflation and employment data were then released, alongside a flurry of remarks from Fed officials, pushing the market-implied odds of a December rate hike to around 80%. Meanwhile, a packed earnings season for AI companies, Anthropic’s IPO roadshow, and geopolitical negotiations involving the U.S., Russia, Ukraine, and others have all become important variables influencing risk assets.

Turning to crypto markets, on-chain intelligence shows that anxiety among long-term holders is rising markedly. On November 5, their realized losses transferred to exchanges reached as high as $139 million—an unusually large-scale exit for this year—suggesting that coins are rapidly changing hands and being cleared out of long-term holders’ portfolios. By contrast, most short-term holders, whose cost basis generally sits around $75,000–$76,000, close to the current breakeven level, have opted to wait and see. Overall, the current wave of fear has spread mainly due to external emotional shocks and has not triggered a material increase in selling pressure. For Bitcoin, a recovery in sentiment hinges on whether the market can gradually confirm that reality is not as bleak as expected; if so, safe-haven capital may begin to flow back in.

【November 6 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. Aftershocks from the midterm elections battered U.S. stocks. AI trading faces its biggest crisis ever, while crypto has been dragged lower;
2. The sharp selloff in U.S. stocks may have been driven by hedge fund liquidations, with markets expecting several funds to be undergoing complete liquidation;
3. Analysis: The U.S. stock market crash could last one to two weeks, with the Nasdaq potentially falling as much as 25%;
4. WLFI plans to launch a token buyback program, funded in part by returns on USD1 reserves.

U.S. stocks suffered an unusually sharp overnight selloff, with the S&P 500 falling 4.4% and the Nasdaq 100 plunging 6.4%—its biggest one-day drop since March 2020. Chipmakers and memory stocks led the decline, while the VIX volatility index surged. Markets broadly pointed to concerns that Democrats’ win in both chambers of Congress could lead to tighter regulation of AI computing capacity and data centers. Investors fear that slower approvals could leave chip production capacity relatively oversupplied by 2028 and undermine the case for rising memory prices. However, most Wall Street observers believe the selloff was driven not by deteriorating fundamentals, but by concentrated hedge fund liquidations. Several well-known funds have reportedly faced redemptions, position unwinds, or been forced to disband internal teams.

The turmoil once again underscored the close links between U.S. stocks and crypto assets. Bitcoin fell in tandem after U.S. markets opened, briefly dropping to around $76,000 before stabilizing. Crypto-related stocks such as MSTR and COIN also retreated across the board. Panic-driven deleveraging is spreading rapidly across asset classes, with crypto—among the riskiest—bearing the brunt. If liquidation pressure in U.S. stocks persists in the near term, BTC may remain under pressure. But if expectations of tighter AI regulation intensify, that could instead draw greater investor attention to decentralized computing power and on-chain infrastructure, potentially offering support for the medium-term outlook.

【November 5 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Institutions: After a Democratic victory, U.S. fiscal policy could tighten in 2027;
2. U.S. midterm elections reshape the pace of AI infrastructure investment; data center regulation is tightening, but a blanket ban on construction remains unlikely;
3. Analysis: Actual orders for memory chips in 2027–2028 far exceed supply capacity, and the impact of Democratic policies is unlikely to alter the supply-demand balance;
4. Analysis: The Bitcoin bear market has lasted 396 days and may now be nearing its end.

With the U.S. midterm elections settled, market expectations for AI infrastructure have shifted. Goldman Sachs believes policy uncertainty could prompt tech companies to bring some capital spending forward to 2027, advancing data center projects and strategic acquisitions before regulations change. Jefferies, meanwhile, notes that although Democrats won governorships in all five key states, the new officeholders are more inclined to set regulatory boundaries than to impose a blanket shutdown. Post-election market performance has diverged sharply: cloud service providers have gained, while data center operators and chip stocks have come under pressure, reflecting a repricing of policy risks across the industry supply chain.

In the crypto market, after Bitcoin broke above $80,000, short-term holders transferred more than 28,000 BTC in profit-taking to exchanges within 24 hours. Despite the resulting selling pressure, it has held above $80,000 and reclaimed its 21-day and 50-day moving averages. Some observers say this bear market, which began at the October 2025 peak, has lasted 396 days—close to the historical average. The roughly 53% drawdown has been relatively moderate, as ETF and institutional participation has made holdings more resilient. However, reaching a typical cycle duration does not confirm that a bottom is in: BTC still needs to hold above $80,000–$82,000 to validate a reversal. With Wall Street fund flows still unclear, the market may be nearing the end of its bear cycle.

【November 4 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. On U.S. midterm election day, chip stocks rebounded after recent losses. Nvidia’s market cap climbed back above $5 trillion, while AMD surged nearly 8% after hours.
2. Early midterm election results are in: Democrats are temporarily holding a sizable lead in votes for both chambers.
3. Analysis: The U.S. stock market’s reaction to the midterm elections will depend on how the results compare with market expectations.
4. Republicans are likely to lose control of both chambers. U.S. stocks may continue to pull back, while Bitcoin is proving relatively resilient.

As of U.S. midterm election day, U.S. stocks edged higher amid investor uncertainty. AI computing infrastructure was the day’s biggest bright spot, with several chipmakers and computing-power rental companies among the top gainers. AMD reported sharply higher revenue after the bell, further fueling enthusiasm for the sector. On the employment front, a rebound in job openings and a decline in layoffs underscored the economy’s resilience, lifting Treasury yields. Oil prices first fell and then recovered amid reports of twists and turns in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Overall, the market remained dominated by heavyweight stocks, with gains concentrated in a relatively narrow range.
For crypto markets, this batch of data carries subtle signals. Major institutions broadly view the change in government as an opportunity to reduce market uncertainty. A stronger-than-expected showing by Republicans could bring the benefit of policy continuity; the opposite outcome could weigh on risk appetite. Bitcoin remains in a bull-market structure, and the previous trading range had already built up rebound momentum. However, until policy outcomes are settled and earlier negative factors have been fully priced in, it is too soon to say that Bitcoin has reached an ideal pullback level. Still, compared with traditional equities, it has shown greater downside resistance and resilience. Although the broader external environment remains unfavorable, Bitcoin continues to display a steadier performance than most assets.

【November 2 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. Macro outlook for the week: U.S. midterm elections and nonfarm payrolls take center stage; Apple and AMD earnings are due for U.S. stocks.
2. Data: Binance saw net outflows of $6.148 billion over the past 24 hours and will publish its proof of reserves on its PoR website today.
3. Analysis: The BTC Seller Exhaustion Index has retested the cycle’s second-lowest point; a bear-market bottom may already be confirmed.
4. U.S. stock index futures extend gains, with Nasdaq 100 futures up more than 1%.

Global markets face multiple overlapping catalysts this week. The U.S. midterm elections will determine every seat in the House and some Senate seats. The results will directly shape the fiscal and tariff policy latitude available to the Trump administration for the remainder of its term. Apple’s first earnings report under its new CEO and AMD’s results will serve as key tests of sentiment around AI trades after recent setbacks. On the data front, strong October nonfarm payrolls could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, affecting the direction of the dollar, U.S. Treasuries and gold. The outcome of Israel’s election and the resumption of Russia-U.S.-Ukraine negotiations are also geopolitical variables.

For crypto markets, expectations of tighter macro liquidity are a headwind, but Bitcoin’s technical indicators are sending positive signals. The Seller Exhaustion Index has triggered a signal again. The indicator gave a precise buying-the-dip signal in August, and BTC’s latest pullback to around $77,000 has formed the cycle’s second-lowest point, just above the August low. The indicator requires both low volatility and high losses, and has historically appeared only at cycle bottoms, suggesting that selling pressure may now be close to exhaustion. If macro sentiment stabilizes, BTC could form a second bottom or even rebound; conversely, if data comes in above expectations and prompts further rate hikes, it could remain under pressure in the short term. Overall, the direction of fiscal policy after the midterm elections and economic data will jointly determine investors’ risk appetite, and crypto markets are likely to remain highly volatile as they await a clearer direction.

【October 30 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The Binance security incident may have involved a DevOps engineer’s laptop being compromised, with an estimated impact of approximately $6.3 billion;
2. The current probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December is 79.6%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 20.4%;
3. Most altcoins fell more sharply than BNB, with major tokens such as LDO, CRV, YFI, and IMX generally down around 13% to 20%;
4. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. Google fell more than 12%, its biggest single-day decline since going public in 2004, while Intel plunged 23% after hours.

U.S. stocks broadly weakened overnight, with all three major indexes closing lower. The Nasdaq posted the steepest decline, falling 1.38%, while the Dow and S&P 500 saw relatively smaller losses. Performance across the technology sector was mixed: Apple and Meta rose against the broader trend, while Google suffered its biggest single-day plunge since going public in 2004. Its total market value shrank by nearly $500 billion in a single trading session, marking the second-largest one-day loss in market value in U.S. stock market history. On the macroeconomic front, core PCE inflation was in line with market expectations but slightly above the previous reading. Markets have begun to increasingly price in another 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting.
From a crypto perspective, this sell-off appears to stem more from a concentrated pullback in risk appetite than from deteriorating fundamentals. After news of a security incident at Binance emerged, BNB briefly fell below $700, while major and mid-cap altcoins generally saw more pronounced declines, reflecting a concentrated unwinding of leveraged positions amid panic. Notably, Bitcoin has pulled back about 13% from its peak, but there has been no panic-driven collapse. Some traders are holding on to long positions established around the $76,000 level, believing the incident could form one last significant low before the market begins to rally. Historical experience suggests that exchange security incidents often cause short-lived liquidity shocks, but can also mark a sentiment bottom. If macroeconomic rate-hike pressures ease in the medium term, Bitcoin may have room for an oversold recovery.

【October 29 | Global Markets: News and Data Analysis】
1. Fed’s October decision: New rules signal a major institutional shift, while the decision to hold rates steady reflects a hawkish internal “consensus of patience.”
2. U.S. stocks close higher: Memory, optical communications, and Neocloud stocks rally across the board; SK Hynix surges 13.3%.
3. A hawkish Fed pause in rate hikes supports the dollar, with the Dollar Index holding above the 102 mark.
4. Bitcoin options with a notional value of $11 billion expire and settle tomorrow; traders brace for heightened volatility around the midterm elections.

Fed Chair Warsh struck a measured tone after the latest policy meeting: he acknowledged the momentum of economic expansion and the resilience of capital spending, while maintaining that inflation remains elevated and resisting the characterization of tighter credit as “tightening.” He denied that political factors were influencing the path of interest rates and voiced concern about rising oil prices and the interest-rate sensitivity of AI investment. Regulators also adjusted the schedule for next year’s policy discussions, with some meetings set to focus exclusively on strategy rather than rate decisions.

In crypto markets, the impact of these remarks is being transmitted mainly through derivatives and the political calendar. Bitcoin options worth around $11 billion expire on Friday, representing roughly one-third of open interest. High-strike call options are likely to expire worthless, while market-maker hedging could amplify swings in the $75,000–$78,000 range. With the midterm elections taking place in early November, differing outcomes imply sharply divergent expectations for Bitcoin’s year-end price. A shrinking supply of gamma could bring more dramatic market swings, and volatility is expected to rebound significantly in November, prompting investors to favor downside protection and volatility trades.

【October 28 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. On the eve of the Fed decision, the AI rebound continued: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3.6%, and CoreWeave gained 8%;
2. OpenAI plans to buy Google AI chips to reduce its dependence on Nvidia;
3. The U.S. warned Gulf states that it could launch a brief but intense war against Iran after the midterm elections;
4. SK Hynix's Q3 results beat expectations, and JPMorgan set a price target implying a potential doubling.

U.S. stocks extended their gains, with AI-related sectors providing the main lift. The semiconductor industry rose particularly sharply, while emerging cloud service providers and optical communications and memory stocks broadly advanced. Improved financing conditions were a key catalyst behind the rally: Broadcom finalized a major financing arrangement with several institutions to purchase AI accelerator equipment and lease it to Anthropic; Oracle expanded its cloud partnership with OpenAI; and Meta's new share offering was oversubscribed. Goldman Sachs attributed the rebound to easing financing concerns and improving earnings expectations. Attention now turns to the Fed's rate decision and earnings reports from major technology companies. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, although expectations of a rate hike by year-end remain elevated. Oil prices fell amid hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index remained high.

The crypto market presented a different picture. On-chain data shows that buying support for Bitcoin remains weak, with demand indicators staying negative. The price gap between U.S. and overseas platforms also points to a lack of domestic buying power, while the paper profits of short-term holders have narrowed significantly. However, the overall score remains in neutral-to-positive territory, with most underlying indicators still bullish. Current conditions look more like a cooldown during an uptrend than a trend reversal. For BTC, a dovish Fed stance this week and continued strong earnings could improve risk appetite and encourage funds to flow back into crypto assets. Conversely, continued strength in the dollar and interest rates would further constrain its upside, and it may remain range-bound in the near term.

【October 27 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. BofA previews the Fed’s October decision press conference: There may be no Q&A session, and Warsh will try to walk a fine line;
2. Losses in Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures narrow; optical communications and AI computing cloud stocks broadly fall in premarket trading, while biotech stocks broadly rise;
3. Glassnode: Recent BTC buyers have moved out of the zone of intense selling pressure, and the share of short-term holders’ supply in profit has fallen to around 70%;
4. TSMC is reportedly planning to raise advanced packaging prices by 10% to 20%, putting cost pressure on Nvidia and AMD.

With the October 2026 policy meeting approaching, the market is sharply divided. BofA expects Warsh to stick to brief remarks. If the Fed raises rates, he would only need to reiterate that inflation remains high and the economy resilient, while guarding against excessive tightening. If the Fed holds rates steady, he would need to shore up confidence in the credibility of its policy; otherwise, the market could see a repeat of a distorted Treasury yield curve, a weaker dollar, and sell-offs in risk assets. BofA maintains its forecast for rate hikes in stages in December and next March, and does not even rule out larger hikes if inflation proves more persistent than expected. Moody’s Analytics, however, opposes a rate hike. Its risk matrix is flashing warning signs, suggesting that policy missteps have themselves become a risk.

For crypto markets, especially BTC, the impact is not symmetrical. Expectations of tighter policy often push up real interest rates and the dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin and weighing on its valuation. Recent on-chain data shows that the share of short-term holders in profit has fallen from near-universal profitability to around 70%. Selling pressure from profit-taking has eased noticeably compared with a month ago, improving entry conditions. But this is merely a cooling of market positioning, not sufficient evidence of a trend reversal. If the meeting delivers a stronger hawkish signal and further locks in a December rate hike, expectations of tighter liquidity will continue to weigh on BTC in the short term. Conversely, a dovish tone could revive risk appetite and give crypto markets some breathing room. The direction of the market will depend more on how investors reassess the subsequent policy path than on the outcome of any single meeting.

【October 23 | Global Markets: News and Data Analysis】
1. Risk-off sentiment surges across the board, with AI stocks leading the decline in U.S. equities; Bitcoin holds above $81,000 for now.
2. CME and other traditional exchanges jointly urge the CFTC to block Kalshi from launching perpetual oil futures.
3. Trump called Musk on Wednesday, demanding that restrictions on Starlink service for Ukraine’s military be lifted.
4. JPMorgan: Regulatory measures partly offset the impact of the failure of the Clarity Act, but political and legal risks remain.

Escalating geopolitical risks are roiling global risk assets. Saudi energy targets were attacked, while reports emerged that the U.S. and Israel are considering striking Iran after the midterm elections. Oil prices surged in response, hitting a five-month high, with WTI nearing the $100 mark. Tensions also weighed on bond markets: U.S. Treasury yields fell by more than 15 basis points across maturities, while the France-Germany spread widened to its highest level since the eurozone debt crisis. U.S. stocks came under pressure and closed lower, led down by technology shares. Semiconductor, memory and optical communications stocks posted the steepest declines, with several AI-related chip stocks plunging more than 10%. Meta delivered better-than-expected third-quarter results, but raised capital expenditure guidance, pushing free cash flow into negative territory. Prices of its credit derivatives hit a record high, as financing concerns spread across the AI supply chain. Crypto-related stocks also fell, while Bitcoin briefly dipped below $81,000 before stabilizing above that level.
The key driver of this selloff is liquidity, not fundamentals: rising oil prices and widening spreads have pushed inflation expectations back into focus, forcing markets to scale back bets on monetary easing. The sharp shift in Treasury yields has directly squeezed valuations of risk assets whose lifeblood is low financing costs. For crypto markets, Bitcoin has not delivered on its safe-haven promise in the short term and continues to fall in tandem with U.S. stocks and dollar liquidity. One point worth noting: fund flow data since the launch of spot ETFs suggest that ETF flows have acted more as confirmation of trends than as predictors. The pattern of buying into rallies and withdrawing during pullbacks may amplify market swings in both directions.

【October 22 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. U.S. stocks: AI and crypto-related stocks rose across the board, with MSTR and SPCX gaining over 7%;
2. Trump denied holding talks with Iran, saying the situation would be resolved “very soon”;
3. Analysis: 921,000 BTC have accumulated around $83,000, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears may be approaching a critical juncture;
4. Musk publicly backed a merger between SpaceX and Tesla, prompting shareholders to question whether the deal would be fair.

Sentiment in overnight U.S. stock trading improved, with major indexes broadly higher. AI, optical communications, semiconductors, and memory stocks were active, with most individual stocks gaining between 1% and 7%. Crypto-related stocks stood out in particular, with several companies posting notable gains. Tesla and Apple also rose, while only a handful of stocks, including Google, came under pressure. Meanwhile, BTC continued to see a buildup of positions around $83,000, with the total approaching the one-million mark. A similar concentration of trading activity has emerged in this price range before, reflecting how it has become a focal point in the ongoing battle between bulls and bears.

A recovery in risk appetite across U.S. equities, coupled with strength in crypto-related stocks, is often seen as a sign of improving market liquidity conditions and provides sentiment-driven support for BTC. The concentration of positions around $83,000 suggests strong buying support in the area and relatively limited downside. If the bulls gain the upper hand, the price may move toward areas with less resistance. However, if the level breaks, the concentrated positions could also be liquidated in a wave. Overall, BTC remains caught in a short-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Whether it can hold above this key level will determine its near-term direction. Investors should monitor trading volumes and liquidation data to help guide their assessments.

【October 21 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The U.S. says Russia-Ukraine peace talks have made progress; Bitcoin remains range-bound, while the three major U.S. stock indexes move in mixed directions;
2. Wall Street firms urge the U.S. SEC to revise its proposed Crypto Asset Regulation, with the public comment period nearing its end;
3. Analysis: Funds will flow back into AI stock trading after the U.S. midterm elections;
4. A Tesla-SpaceX merger is on the agenda, and trading volume for SPCX contracts has surged nearly 130% month over month.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is actively gathering public comments on its newly proposed Crypto Asset Regulation. It has received more than 100 submissions so far, with stakeholders broadly hoping the rules will clarify the compliance boundaries for digital asset fundraising. The proposal provides two tiers of fundraising exemptions for startup and mid-sized projects, and seeks to clarify the criteria for determining whether activities such as airdrops constitute securities offerings. Notably, in its submission, the Hyperliquid Policy Center emphasized that the rules should explicitly state that gratuitous airdrops are not considered securities investments. It also argued that the coverage of the current safe harbor framework should be expanded. Meanwhile, Special Envoy Witkoff has recently been mediating with Russia on a peace plan, adding geopolitical developments to the mix of market catalysts.

In terms of market impact, these developments are a moderately positive catalyst for Bitcoin. A shift from ambiguous enforcement to transparent rules has historically boosted risk appetite significantly and made institutional investors more willing to enter the market. Bitcoin’s recent choppy climb around $83,000 reflects a similar recovery in sentiment as regulatory uncertainty eases. If details such as the airdrop exemption are finalized, the compliance costs of token issuance could fall considerably, potentially attracting more projects and additional capital back to the U.S. market and indirectly supporting BTC liquidity. However, the timeline for implementing the policy remains uncertain. In the short term, the market is likely to remain range-bound as it builds momentum, and investors should watch for further details and developments in the geopolitical situation.

[October 20 | Global Market News and Data Analysis]
1. Trump is positive about holding a summit between the leaders of China, the United States, and Russia during the APEC meeting; China responds.
2. Analysis: The market is at a critical turning point for a structural pullback, while the futures market is still dominated by sellers.
3. SpaceX earnings preview: market consensus revenue is about $12.9 billion, with attention on whether it can deliver its first profitable quarter since going public.
4. Bitcoin volatility has contracted to an extreme level near a two-and-a-half-year low and is building toward a sharp move.

Post-market earnings season is heating up again. SpaceX will release its second quarterly report since going public. The market broadly expects revenue of about $12.9 billion, nearly doubling year over year, with income mainly driven by AI and Starlink businesses. Whether it can turn a profit for the first time is the key focus. Netflix and Vicor will report afterward; the former's quarterly growth rate may hit a near three-year low, while the latter is expected to beat forecasts thanks to demand for AI power supplies. On the same day, J.P. Morgan Asset Management made the rare move of including Bitcoin in its ten-year long-term return forecast, assigning it a compounded annual return higher than traditional assets such as U.S. large-cap stocks and gold.

The symbolic meaning of J.P. Morgan's report outweighs the specific numbers. It suggests that top-tier asset managers are beginning to incorporate crypto assets into mainstream asset allocation frameworks, objectively providing some endorsement for mainstream capital to enter the market. Combined with the fact that the performance of companies such as SpaceX and Vicor is deeply tied to AI capital expenditures, the market's pricing of "AI monetization" will gradually spread to crypto sentiment: if earnings reinforce the narrative of compute demand, a rebound in risk appetite could provide support for BTC; conversely, if guidance is weak, it may further dampen overall risk appetite and amplify short-term volatility in crypto.

【October 19 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. Macro outlook for the week: Jensen Huang makes an appearance at Nvidia GTC, the Fed enters its blackout period, and Meta and Tesla earnings take center stage;
2. The three major U.S. stock index futures rise, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 1%. Optical communications, storage and semiconductor stocks edge higher in overnight trading, while spot gold and silver also advance;
3. The crypto market remains range-bound. Bitcoin edges higher, breaking above $82,000, while gains among major tokens are all below 1%;
4. Token unlocks this week: ZRO, XPL, H and others are set for large one-time unlocks.

U.S. technology stocks broadly struggled last week, with the Nasdaq falling more than 4% for the week. As markets digest stickier-than-expected inflation, they are also beginning to reassess the narrative that “the economy is unshakable.” The Fed is now in its blackout period ahead of its policy meeting, leaving investors without fresh comments from officials. Attention is shifting to earnings from tech giants and business activity indicators: Meta and Tesla are both due to report, while the semiconductor and storage sectors are also entering their earnings window. Preliminary PMIs from Europe and the U.S. on Friday, along with the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading, will put the rate-hike outlook to the test. On the geopolitical front, Trump has paused comprehensive sanctions on Russia and set an approximately 60-day review period. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of further escalation in the Middle East continue to support oil prices.

In the markets, futures on the three major U.S. stock indexes rose this morning, with Nasdaq futures up nearly 1%. Optical communications, storage and semiconductor stocks rebounded in overnight trading, while gold and silver also rallied. Oil prices, meanwhile, retreated amid progress in Russia-U.S. diesel trade. The crypto market remains range-bound: Bitcoin broke above $82,000 and Ethereum climbed above $2,400, but total market capitalization still shrank by around 1.4% from the previous day. Looking ahead, if corporate earnings and inflation data from the U.S. send dovish signals, expectations for monetary easing could build, potentially supporting Bitcoin as it consolidates above $80,000. At the same time, safe-haven sentiment driven by oil-price volatility may indirectly reinforce BTC’s value as a portfolio asset. In the near term, the market is expected to remain range-bound as it consolidates and awaits a fresh directional catalyst.

【October 15 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. U.S. Treasury yields surged and then retreated after the CPI report, as markets assessed inflation data and Fed officials’ remarks;
2. Speculative trading cooled, Bitcoin neared a recent low, and the Nasdaq closed down nearly 2%;
3. Uncertainty over Trump’s policies is prompting central banks to reallocate to gold, with gold holdings in London vaults nearing 10,000 tonnes;
4. Japanese and South Korean stocks both slumped, while South Korea’s financial regulators called an emergency meeting.

U.S. Treasury yields rebounded sharply overnight, reversing the sell-off sparked by rising inflation data. Yields on most maturities turned from gains to losses as markets seesawed between expectations of “accelerating price increases” and the view that “officials are in no hurry to raise rates.” Official figures showed that the CPI rose 3.7% year over year in September, above the 3.6% estimate. The two-year yield subsequently touched a two-week high, while the implied probability of a rate hike fell intraday from around 40% to 33%. Crypto markets also came under pressure, with Bitcoin falling to around $81,000. Approximately $935 million in positions were liquidated across the market over the past 24 hours, mostly long positions.
BTC has tested this support zone for the third time, while on-chain realized losses have narrowed with each test. This suggests that selling is coming more from passive exits by “weak-handed holders” than from panic-driven capitulation. The share of short-term holders in loss remains around 11 percentage points below its historical average, suggesting that the shakeout is not yet complete and that further volatility risk should not be underestimated. The near-term outlook hinges on whether losses continue to narrow: if support holds and passive selling eases, the current correction may be nearing its end; otherwise, more extensive turnover may be needed. With additional macro headwinds from weakness in U.S. tech stocks and a stronger dollar, BTC remains vulnerable in the short term to a retreat in risk appetite. Investors should watch how shifts in policy expectations following the inflation data affect crypto asset pricing.

【October 14 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower this morning; SK Hynix and Micron both fell more than 3%.
2. U.S. September CPI data will be released tonight and could post its largest increase in five months, putting expectations for an October rate hike to the test.
3. Statistics: Just 10 stocks have accounted for 70% of the S&P 500’s gains since March 30.
4. Analysis: Global stocks are set to perform strongly from November through next April; the recent pullback is an excellent buying opportunity.

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower, with clear divergence across the market. Oracle and Meta rose against the broader trend, while SpaceX, Citigroup, and the memory chip giants Micron and SK Hynix posted steeper declines. Cryptocurrency-related stocks, meanwhile, saw modest gains and losses overall. September CPI, due out tonight, is the market’s main focus. Institutions generally expect headline inflation to rebound, driven by a recovery in energy prices, while core inflation eases. This divergence could make the Federal Reserve more cautious ahead of its rate decision later this month. Markets currently assign a low probability to a rate hike. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could strengthen expectations of tighter policy; if not, a rate hike may be deferred until December. Upcoming PPI data and remarks from Fed officials will also provide further guidance.
For crypto markets, inflation figures directly influence how risk assets are priced. If softer core inflation supports a pause in rate hikes, looser liquidity conditions would generally benefit risk assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, if inflation exceeds expectations and the likelihood of a rate hike increases, it could heighten short-term volatility in the crypto market. Notably, some traders have observed strong buying support for Bitcoin near $81,000, with the price having twice triggered signals of a potential bottom and stabilization. After a substantial correction, it could still make another run at $87,000. This also suggests that some investors are positioning themselves on the dip, leaving room for the market to move once the data is released.

【October 12 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Key events and data to watch this week: U.S. September CPI and remarks by Fed Chair Warsh;
2. Goldman Sachs: Raised its December Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel, while maintaining its forecast for an average price of $80 in 2027;
3. Analysis: A market downturn combined with BTC distribution is not necessarily alarming; potential selling pressure can be released early during the transition from a bear market to a bull market;
4. Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had reached an “energy ceasefire,” effective immediately. Russia has not confirmed the agreement, and Zelenskyy said he was still waiting for details.

U.S. stocks fluctuated but moved higher last week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining approximately 1.15% and 0.64%, respectively. Sector performance diverged markedly: defensive sectors such as food and beverage and utilities led the gains, while telecoms, semiconductors, and capital goods came under relative pressure. This week, the U.S. September CPI, PPI, and import and export price indexes will be released in succession. TSMC and ASML’s third-quarter earnings reports, as well as Apple’s smart home product launch, are also worth watching.

In the crypto market, long-term holders (LTHs) transferred around 32,000 BTC to trading platforms on October 7–8, the second-largest amount since the sharp sell-off in February this year. Around 17,200 BTC of this came from U.S. government wallets and was transferred to Coinbase Prime, largely in connection with custody consolidation or case-related asset handling, and does not necessarily indicate selling. Excluding this amount, the actual seller pressure worth watching was around 14,800 BTC, mainly from medium- and long-term holders. Historically, during transitions between bear and bull markets, daily LTH transfers of 2,000–3,000 BTC are normal, while significant surges in volume often coincide with bearish expectations. However, CDD data show that a pullback combined with a sharp rise in coin days destroyed often indicates that dormant coins are being reactivated and changing hands. Although this can create short-term selling pressure, it also prompts less committed holders to exit early, reducing resistance to a subsequent market move. The continued reactivation of long-term holdings and rising turnover are a natural part of value discovery in a bull market: older coins are released and absorbed by new capital, and thorough turnover can actually lay a stronger foundation for a longer-lasting rally. There is therefore no need to panic excessively over every instance of LTH distribution; the key is whether the market can effectively absorb these coins.

【October 10 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. Trump: Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz now exceed levels before the outbreak of the Iran war.
2. Nvidia’s revised definition of free cash flow draws attention: the sustainability of its $235 billion buyback plan is in doubt.
3. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen to 46%, but it has seen more extreme moves this year than during the 2018 bear market.
4. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher this morning; Oracle gained 4.69% and CRCL rose 4.54%.

U.S. stocks ended higher on Friday, with all three major indexes advancing. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each posted gains, reflecting broadly upbeat market sentiment. Major tech stocks turned in a strong performance: Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla, and SpaceX all posted solid gains, providing the main impetus for the indexes’ rise. Crypto-related stocks were mixed: MicroStrategy, Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood rose, while Sbet, BMNR, and PURR edged lower, pointing to uneven momentum across the sector.
Bitcoin has experienced extreme moves several times this year. Although individual swings have been milder than in 2018 and volatility has eased considerably over the course of the year, extreme fluctuations remain relatively frequent. This reflects the continued role of concentrated derivatives leverage and macroeconomic shocks in amplifying price swings. Greater institutional participation, improved liquidity, and more sophisticated risk-management tools have made the market somewhat more resilient to shocks. However, traditional risk models still fall short in capturing tail risks, and extreme moves are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. For the crypto market, the recovery in risk appetite across U.S. equities and the correlation with related stocks could provide Bitcoin with a tailwind in the short term. But rising volatility and the failure of risk models are reminders that traders should not overcommit to a low-volatility environment, and should instead treat sharp market moves as part of the norm.

【October 9 | Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Friday got off to a rocky start: Bitcoin weakened before making a modest rebound, while concerns about AI earnings resurfaced in U.S. stocks;
2. Fed’s Musalem: Further rate hikes may be needed over the next 6 to 9 months;
3. Altcoins fell sharply, with previously strong performers also weakening;
4. Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade was activated on the testnet, and the block gas limit was raised to about 200 million.

St. Louis Fed President Musalem struck a hawkish tone, saying the Fed would need to raise rates again to bring inflation back to its 2% target. He acknowledged that policy needed to tighten further, and said that if “timely” meant roughly 18 months, there could still be room for rate hikes over the next 6 to 9 months. Even with Treasury yields rising, financial conditions remain relatively loose. On the late-October rate-setting meeting, he remained open-minded and made no predictions. Meanwhile, three U.S. aircraft carriers are gathering in the Middle East, and the Pentagon is considering strikes on Iran’s energy and missile facilities. Trump has put the action on hold for now, leaving room for diplomacy. Overnight, U.S. tech stocks broadly fell amid rumors about AI revenue, while Bitcoin edged up to around $81,800.
For crypto markets, hawkish comments in the style of Powell, combined with geopolitical tensions, tend to boost the dollar and demand for safe havens, putting temporary pressure on high-risk assets such as BTC. However, if inflation cools and rate-hike expectations are realized, liquidity pressures could ease. Along with capital rotating out of tech stocks after their pullback, this could lend Bitcoin some resilience. In the short term, price action is likely to remain volatile as markets react to the Fed’s rate outlook and developments between the U.S. and Iran. Whether the trend can continue will depend on whether the pace of tightening and safe-haven sentiment ease at the same time.