【September 4 — Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#非农 will be revealed tonight: The market expects that in August, only an increase of 56,000 jobs will be added. Morgan Chase warns that the S&P 500 could swing sharply with the data;
2、Vance: Does not define the U.S.-Iran conflict as “war,” and once again urges the Fed to cut rates;
3、#FOMC 9: The probability of a rate hike in September has fallen back to 50%. Bitcoin surged above $82,000 at one point this morning;
4、U.S. stock futures ended higher this morning for crypto-related stocks, with MSTR up more than 17% and CRCL up 16.44%.
Tonight, the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data will be released. The market expects about 56,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate steady around 4.1%. Institutions generally believe the labor market is showing a pattern of “steady yet slightly weakening.” Softer data may not immediately drive a policy shift, and decision-makers’ focus remains on the direction of inflation. Morgan Chase’s scenario analysis suggests that if employment comes in significantly above expectations, U.S. stocks may come under pressure and fall; otherwise, they could rebound modestly—showing that this data has become a key variable affecting September policy expectations. Recent remarks from multiple Fed officials have been relatively mild, implying that employment is not yet the main battleground for decisions. However, before inflation effectively cools, the possibility of tightening policy still remains.
For the crypto market, the NFP outcome will transmit via the dollar trend and risk appetite to #BTC . After ETF flows saw their first net outflow earlier, the coin price did not fall—instead it rose and broke above $82,000, showing some short-term resilience. Jiang Zhuoer cleared out at high levels and turned to shorting, believing the consolidation period is likely too brief and the upside momentum is insufficient. The script they provided indicates that the market may first pull back into the $70,000 to $72,000 range, then consolidate and build energy before another move. In terms of trading, one should closely watch the resistance band around $83,000 to $84,000, using $82.3k as a key stop-loss reference, and time buys and sells carefully as the data and policy expectations repeatedly adjust.
1、#非农 will be revealed tonight: The market expects that in August, only an increase of 56,000 jobs will be added. Morgan Chase warns that the S&P 500 could swing sharply with the data;
2、Vance: Does not define the U.S.-Iran conflict as “war,” and once again urges the Fed to cut rates;
3、#FOMC 9: The probability of a rate hike in September has fallen back to 50%. Bitcoin surged above $82,000 at one point this morning;
4、U.S. stock futures ended higher this morning for crypto-related stocks, with MSTR up more than 17% and CRCL up 16.44%.
Tonight, the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data will be released. The market expects about 56,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate steady around 4.1%. Institutions generally believe the labor market is showing a pattern of “steady yet slightly weakening.” Softer data may not immediately drive a policy shift, and decision-makers’ focus remains on the direction of inflation. Morgan Chase’s scenario analysis suggests that if employment comes in significantly above expectations, U.S. stocks may come under pressure and fall; otherwise, they could rebound modestly—showing that this data has become a key variable affecting September policy expectations. Recent remarks from multiple Fed officials have been relatively mild, implying that employment is not yet the main battleground for decisions. However, before inflation effectively cools, the possibility of tightening policy still remains.
For the crypto market, the NFP outcome will transmit via the dollar trend and risk appetite to #BTC . After ETF flows saw their first net outflow earlier, the coin price did not fall—instead it rose and broke above $82,000, showing some short-term resilience. Jiang Zhuoer cleared out at high levels and turned to shorting, believing the consolidation period is likely too brief and the upside momentum is insufficient. The script they provided indicates that the market may first pull back into the $70,000 to $72,000 range, then consolidate and build energy before another move. In terms of trading, one should closely watch the resistance band around $83,000 to $84,000, using $82.3k as a key stop-loss reference, and time buys and sells carefully as the data and policy expectations repeatedly adjust.
