【August 4 Global Market News, Information and Data Analysis】
1. Expectations of US-Iran talks heat up; US stocks see a strong start in August with the Dow hitting a new high, and shares in the optical communications concept rise across the board;
2. Institutions: The semiconductor sector may form an emotional bottom. This week focuses on <#AMD >, as well as the earnings reports of Western Digital and SanDisk;
3. US stock earnings preview for the week: <#AI > chip repair trade brings “three tough battles” ahead;
4. The US has completed a voluntary review framework prior to the release of an AI model, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and others discussing the matter with the White House.
In a “ultimatum-style” proposal delivered to Iran recently, Trump claimed that US-Iran negotiations have already begun, with a two-step plan: first reopen navigation routes, then proceed toward denuclearization. The Strait of Hormuz could be restarted as early as the next day. Iran immediately denied this, saying it is only discussing temporary shipping lanes with Oman and has not had direct contact with the US. The two sides each sticking to their own story caused the geopolitical premium to quickly unwind. Brent crude fell nearly 6% in a day, while risk appetite rebounded significantly. US stocks rallied collectively: the Dow refreshed the all-time closing record, and tech and semiconductor sectors led the entire market.
Risk spillovers also benefited the crypto market. <#BTC > returned above $63,000 as well—this is a monthly-line bullish confirmation level identified by institutions. If August’s close can hold above this threshold, multiple cyclical indicators are likely to turn bullish, with technicals confirming a temporary bottom. However, upward obstacles have not disappeared: if the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to climb and forces the Federal Reserve to restart rate hikes, coupled with potential selling pressure from miners’ AI transition and liquidation behaviors by crypto companies, supply-side pressure will continue to constrain BTC upside. In the short term, the direction of US-Iran game dynamics remains the key external variable driving crypto sentiment.
1. Expectations of US-Iran talks heat up; US stocks see a strong start in August with the Dow hitting a new high, and shares in the optical communications concept rise across the board;
2. Institutions: The semiconductor sector may form an emotional bottom. This week focuses on <#AMD >, as well as the earnings reports of Western Digital and SanDisk;
3. US stock earnings preview for the week: <#AI > chip repair trade brings “three tough battles” ahead;
4. The US has completed a voluntary review framework prior to the release of an AI model, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and others discussing the matter with the White House.
In a “ultimatum-style” proposal delivered to Iran recently, Trump claimed that US-Iran negotiations have already begun, with a two-step plan: first reopen navigation routes, then proceed toward denuclearization. The Strait of Hormuz could be restarted as early as the next day. Iran immediately denied this, saying it is only discussing temporary shipping lanes with Oman and has not had direct contact with the US. The two sides each sticking to their own story caused the geopolitical premium to quickly unwind. Brent crude fell nearly 6% in a day, while risk appetite rebounded significantly. US stocks rallied collectively: the Dow refreshed the all-time closing record, and tech and semiconductor sectors led the entire market.
Risk spillovers also benefited the crypto market. <#BTC > returned above $63,000 as well—this is a monthly-line bullish confirmation level identified by institutions. If August’s close can hold above this threshold, multiple cyclical indicators are likely to turn bullish, with technicals confirming a temporary bottom. However, upward obstacles have not disappeared: if the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to climb and forces the Federal Reserve to restart rate hikes, coupled with potential selling pressure from miners’ AI transition and liquidation behaviors by crypto companies, supply-side pressure will continue to constrain BTC upside. In the short term, the direction of US-Iran game dynamics remains the key external variable driving crypto sentiment.