【August 12 Global Market News and Data Analysis】
1. In US pre-market trading, semiconductor, optical communications, and storage stocks all rose across the board: LITE jumped more than 7%, while NOK rose more than 6%;
2. The market is focused on tonight’s US July CPI and core CPI month-over-month, which will directly determine whether the Fed will hike in September;
3. The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund first disclosed its holdings in SpaceX, with a value exceeding $1.2 billion;
4. Analysis: Bitcoin volatility has fallen to around the lowest levels in the past two years, suggesting the market may be gearing up for sharp volatility.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the July Consumer Price Index tonight. Although it narrowed slightly versus the previous month, it remains significantly above the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve. Current market expectations for whether the Fed will hike in September are exactly 50/50; tonight’s data will therefore be the key weight tipping the balance. Economists believe that if the reading matches expectations, two consecutive months of relatively mild performance will allow the committee to continue standing by and maintain a wait-and-see stance for the rest of the year. But if the data clearly comes in above expectations, the situation will quickly reverse.
For Bitcoin, the current market is in a typical “building strength while staying quiet” phase. Price volatility has been compressed into an extremely narrow range: the Bollinger Band width is only about 3.8%, near the lowest level in nearly two years, whereas in early July it still remained in double digits. The trend strength indicator ADX has also fallen to 11, far below the confirmation threshold of 25, and neither buy nor sell signals have been triggered. Analysts note that this “double-low” structure usually indicates the market is accumulating energy for the next major bout of volatility. In the short term, the risk of a false breakout is relatively high, but the indicators themselves still cannot specify whether the eventual direction is upward or downward. Only if the Bollinger Bands reopen, ADX breaks above 25, and the direction indicators lead by more than five points will the next round of trend signals be formally confirmed.
1. In US pre-market trading, semiconductor, optical communications, and storage stocks all rose across the board: LITE jumped more than 7%, while NOK rose more than 6%;
2. The market is focused on tonight’s US July CPI and core CPI month-over-month, which will directly determine whether the Fed will hike in September;
3. The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund first disclosed its holdings in SpaceX, with a value exceeding $1.2 billion;
4. Analysis: Bitcoin volatility has fallen to around the lowest levels in the past two years, suggesting the market may be gearing up for sharp volatility.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the July Consumer Price Index tonight. Although it narrowed slightly versus the previous month, it remains significantly above the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve. Current market expectations for whether the Fed will hike in September are exactly 50/50; tonight’s data will therefore be the key weight tipping the balance. Economists believe that if the reading matches expectations, two consecutive months of relatively mild performance will allow the committee to continue standing by and maintain a wait-and-see stance for the rest of the year. But if the data clearly comes in above expectations, the situation will quickly reverse.
For Bitcoin, the current market is in a typical “building strength while staying quiet” phase. Price volatility has been compressed into an extremely narrow range: the Bollinger Band width is only about 3.8%, near the lowest level in nearly two years, whereas in early July it still remained in double digits. The trend strength indicator ADX has also fallen to 11, far below the confirmation threshold of 25, and neither buy nor sell signals have been triggered. Analysts note that this “double-low” structure usually indicates the market is accumulating energy for the next major bout of volatility. In the short term, the risk of a false breakout is relatively high, but the indicators themselves still cannot specify whether the eventual direction is upward or downward. Only if the Bollinger Bands reopen, ADX breaks above 25, and the direction indicators lead by more than five points will the next round of trend signals be formally confirmed.
