๐ Late night 11:55, BNB $606, I'm still stacking
You might think I'm crazy.
BTC $63,975, ETH $1,779, BNB $606, SOL $69.8โfour major players still scraping the bottom, taking another hit since my last post. $680 million liquidated in the last 24 hours, 64,000 people wrecked, and Binance Square is filled with "delete the app" type of despair.
But here I am, sitting in front of my screen, jotting down todayโs buys.
Not because I'm smart, but because I entered the game in 2021 and have seen this "doomsday" script play out too many times.
First, letโs talk about what the market is fearing todayโthree things:
Firstly, Iran. The tension in the Strait of Hormuz hasnโt eased, Brent crude is wobbling at $94+, and sticky inflation is still a concern. Warshโs FOMC on 6/16 is approaching, and the market is already pricing in "one more rate hike". In traditional macro logic, rate hikes kill risk assets, and BTC is the first to feel the burn.
Secondly, the attitude of smart money. Todayโs on-chain data is worth analyzing: almost all smart money positions on BSC have pulled out, FSTOCK exit 98%, Apple Life exit 98%, Exchange the World exit 98%, BStocks exit 97%โa clear signal of "Iโm done playing". Thereโs a serious divergence on Solana, with RICH exiting 0% still holding strong (+0.81x unrealized gain), GACHA exiting 2% barely moving, and SV151 exiting 62% still holding on. Smart money isnโt moving in the same directionโBSC has laid down, while Solana is still resisting. Thatโs the real signal.
Thirdly, the narrative around the retreat of Strategies and ETFs. Michael Saylor sold 32 BTC from his 840,000 BTC stash for $2.47 million, and the "faith collapse" story has been circulating for a week. ETFs have seen continuous outflows of over $40 billion, with AUM shrinking by $100 billion in two weeks. Institutional money is fleeing, while retail is stepping in.
What the market fears are these three thingsโgeopolitical issues + tightening liquidity + faith collapse.
But I have to say something that might get me criticized: Iโve seen all of this news before in 2022.
LUNA collapse, FTX disaster, USDC depeg, Three Arrows Capital liquidation, the March 12 crash, the May 19 crashโevery time thereโs a sob story of "this time itโs different", it ultimately becomes fuel for the dollar-cost-averagers.
Why?
Because of unit cost.
When I first dollar-cost-averaged into BTC in 2021, BTC was at $47,000. Today itโs $63,975. It looks like it has risen 36%, but it has gone through four major retracements before bouncing back. During the same period, my average cost for dollar-cost-averaging BNB was $580, and today itโs $606โafter five years, the average price of BNB hasnโt changed much. But with the same amount of USDT, I could buy 16% more BNB during the panic sell-off in March.
Thatโs the true magic of dollar-cost averaging: what gets hammered down isnโt "losses", but rather "unit cost". You donโt need to predict where the bottom is; you just need to buy the same amount of USDT during each panic.
But here comes the controversyโ
The fear index is at 12 (plummeting from yesterday's 23), and the market is in extreme fear. As a 30-year DCA veteran, do I dare to stack more in this situation? Or rather, do I even have the bullets to stack more?
My answer: Yes, I dare, and I will.
Not because Iโm fearless, but because Iโm afraid of something elseโwhen my grandson looks at my books in 2056, I donโt want him to see that grandpa didnโt buy when the market was at its most fearful from 2021 to 2026.
I still have $30,000 USDT in my account, and today's script feels like "Double Eleven discounts". Iโll buy more BTC and BNBโmoney that doesnโt affect my living and isnโt leveraged, the discipline of 30-year DCA is simply those five words.
But I also understand another perspectiveโ
Despite the BNB ecosystem having VanEck ETF approval, Maxwellโs 0.8-second block upgrade, bStocks tokenization, and the 35th quarterly burnโso many positives stacked up, BNB still dropped to $606. Technically, it has completely broken down; should I stop-loss? Should I cut my losses?
So todayโs question is:
When smart money has cleared out 98%, fear index has plummeted to 12, institutions are retreating, and geopolitical tensions are convergingโ
Are you willing to stack more? Or rather, do you still have bullets to stack more?
Itโs been five years, day 26, 30-year DCAโs 26th buy-in.
Fear is the best gift, but the prerequisite isโdonโt fall asleep in the car. ๐
#BTC #BNB #ๅฎๆ #ๆๆ
ๆๆฐ #FOMC