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fomc
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🚨 BIG WEEK AHEAD FOR BTC & ETH!
Major U.S. economic data and Fed speeches could trigger volatility across crypto markets.
📅 Key Events:
Monday: Warsh speaks
Tuesday: U.S. Retail Sales
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Waller speaks + Consumer Sentiment
📈 Hawkish signals could pressure crypto, while dovish signals may boost BTC and ETH.
⚠️ Expect volatility and watch key price levels!
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket #FOMC
🚨 BIG WEEK AHEAD FOR BTC & ETH!
Major U.S. economic data and Fed speeches could trigger volatility across crypto markets.
📅 Key Events:
Monday: Warsh speaks
Tuesday: U.S. Retail Sales
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Waller speaks + Consumer Sentiment
📈 Hawkish signals could pressure crypto, while dovish signals may boost BTC and ETH.
⚠️ Expect volatility and watch key price levels!
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket #FOMC
Major U.S. economic data and Fed speeches could trigger volatility across crypto markets.
📅 Key Events:
Monday: Warsh speaks
Tuesday: U.S. Retail Sales
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: Waller speaks + Consumer Sentiment
📈 Hawkish signals could pressure crypto, while dovish signals may boost BTC and ETH.
⚠️ Expect volatility and watch key price levels!
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket #FOMC
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🏦 The Federal Reserve's December Decision: Could a Rate Hike Trigger Another $100 Billion Crypto Market Selloff? 📉
⏳ Picture a global trading desk seconds before an interest rate announcement. Screens glow red and green as algorithms wait on a single decimal point from Washington.
📊 That exact tension is building ahead of the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting, with prediction markets and CME FedWatch pricing roughly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.
🔥 After holding rates at 3.75%–4.00% in October, policymakers face stubborn 3.7% inflation and sticky energy costs, pushing Governor Christopher Waller to even float a half-point hike.
💡 My take is clear: a standard quarter-point hike is mostly priced in, so it alone may not trigger a $100 billion wipeout. The real danger is hawkish guidance or a surprise 50-basis-point move that drains global liquidity and strengthens the dollar.
⚖️ However, if inflation cools before December, softer Fed tone could spark a sharp relief bounce across bruised digital assets.
🧭 Smart traders focus on liquidity signals and position sizing rather than guessing the headline candle.
💬 Do you think a December rate hike is already priced into crypto, or would a hawkish Fed trigger another major selloff?
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading.
#FOMC #CryptoMarket #GrowWithSAC $BARD $BTC $PROM
🏦 The Federal Reserve's December Decision: Could a Rate Hike Trigger Another $100 Billion Crypto Market Selloff? 📉
⏳ Picture a global trading desk seconds before an interest rate announcement. Screens glow red and green as algorithms wait on a single decimal point from Washington.
📊 That exact tension is building ahead of the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting, with prediction markets and CME FedWatch pricing roughly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.
🔥 After holding rates at 3.75%–4.00% in October, policymakers face stubborn 3.7% inflation and sticky energy costs, pushing Governor Christopher Waller to even float a half-point hike.
💡 My take is clear: a standard quarter-point hike is mostly priced in, so it alone may not trigger a $100 billion wipeout. The real danger is hawkish guidance or a surprise 50-basis-point move that drains global liquidity and strengthens the dollar.
⚖️ However, if inflation cools before December, softer Fed tone could spark a sharp relief bounce across bruised digital assets.
🧭 Smart traders focus on liquidity signals and position sizing rather than guessing the headline candle.
💬 Do you think a December rate hike is already priced into crypto, or would a hawkish Fed trigger another major selloff?
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading.
#FOMC #CryptoMarket #GrowWithSAC $BARD $BTC $PROM
⏳ Picture a global trading desk seconds before an interest rate announcement. Screens glow red and green as algorithms wait on a single decimal point from Washington.
📊 That exact tension is building ahead of the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting, with prediction markets and CME FedWatch pricing roughly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.
🔥 After holding rates at 3.75%–4.00% in October, policymakers face stubborn 3.7% inflation and sticky energy costs, pushing Governor Christopher Waller to even float a half-point hike.
💡 My take is clear: a standard quarter-point hike is mostly priced in, so it alone may not trigger a $100 billion wipeout. The real danger is hawkish guidance or a surprise 50-basis-point move that drains global liquidity and strengthens the dollar.
⚖️ However, if inflation cools before December, softer Fed tone could spark a sharp relief bounce across bruised digital assets.
🧭 Smart traders focus on liquidity signals and position sizing rather than guessing the headline candle.
💬 Do you think a December rate hike is already priced into crypto, or would a hawkish Fed trigger another major selloff?
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading.
#FOMC #CryptoMarket #GrowWithSAC $BARD $BTC $PROM
Anjel lipy:
please follow and like my post
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The neutral rate is commonly called r-star. It means a policy that... let's see#Fed , #RateHike , #fomc ,#TMFUSDT
""Every economy has an approximate neutral rate—a rate that neither strongly stimulates the economy nor significantly slows it down. The exact neutral rate is unknown; the Fed estimates it.""
What do they look at to judge it? How do they figure out what the neutral level is?
The neutral rate is commonly called r-star (r\). It means a policy-rate level that, when inflation is near its target and the economy is operating at normal capacity, neither gives demand an extra boost nor puts on the brakes.
The neutral rate is commonly called r-star. It means a policy that... let's see
#Fed , #RateHike , #fomc ,#TMFUSDT
""Every economy has an approximate neutral rate—a rate that neither strongly stimulates the economy nor significantly slows it down. The exact neutral rate is unknown; the Fed estimates it.""
What do they look at to judge it? How do they figure out what the neutral level is?
The neutral rate is commonly called r-star (r\). It means a policy-rate level that, when inflation is near its target and the economy is operating at normal capacity, neither gives demand an extra boost nor puts on the brakes.
""Every economy has an approximate neutral rate—a rate that neither strongly stimulates the economy nor significantly slows it down. The exact neutral rate is unknown; the Fed estimates it.""
What do they look at to judge it? How do they figure out what the neutral level is?
The neutral rate is commonly called r-star (r\). It means a policy-rate level that, when inflation is near its target and the economy is operating at normal capacity, neither gives demand an extra boost nor puts on the brakes.
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The Fed has only 7 rate decisions in 2027: Beijing-time schedule—save this and you’re set
The Fed will hold 8 meetings next year, but only 7 will tell you what happens to interest rates. On November 12, the Fed released a revised tentative schedule for its 2027 policy meetings. Here are the key details:
1. Number of meetings: There are 8 meetings. The one on October 26–27 is devoted to a broader discussion of the monetary policy framework. The Fed explicitly says it will not announce a rate decision as usual at that meeting, so there will be 7 actual decisions.
2. Compared with this year: All 8 meetings in 2026 will have a rate decision, with the last one on December 8–9. The final decision of 2027 will be on November 16–17. There is no December meeting that year; the next one is January 25–26, 2028.
3. Gaps: There are usually 6–7 weeks between decisions, but there will be a 9-week gap from September to November, and a 10-week gap from November to January 2028.
As usual, the statement will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. That’s 2 a.m. Beijing time during U.S. daylight saving time (March 14–November 7), and 3 a.m. the rest of the year:
- January 28, 03:00
- March 18, 02:00
- April 29, 02:00
- June 10, 02:00
- July 29, 02:00
- September 16, 02:00
- November 18, 03:00
There’s one decision left this year: December 10, 03:00 (for the December 8–9 meeting).
Three practical tips:
- Add the 7 times above to your phone calendar and set a reminder for the day before. If you trade futures, set your stop-loss and position size the night before, then get some sleep. Don’t leave yourself exposed with leverage while you wait for the decision.
- Check whether there’s a dot plot: in 2026, economic projections will accompany the March, June, September, and December meetings. The 2027 schedule hasn’t yet specified which meetings will include projections, so don’t assume anything in advance.
- Every date is tentative. The Fed only confirms it at the preceding meeting, so check the next date again after each meeting.
A little bluntness: one fewer meeting doesn’t mean one fewer rate-decision market take. The dates are set; you’re the one adding leverage.
Follow me for macro calendar reminders converted to Beijing time, so you don’t have to work out the time difference yourself.
#美联储 #FOMC #宏观日历 #InterestRates
The Fed has only 7 rate decisions in 2027: Beijing-time schedule—save this and you’re set
The Fed will hold 8 meetings next year, but only 7 will tell you what happens to interest rates. On November 12, the Fed released a revised tentative schedule for its 2027 policy meetings. Here are the key details:
1. Number of meetings: There are 8 meetings. The one on October 26–27 is devoted to a broader discussion of the monetary policy framework. The Fed explicitly says it will not announce a rate decision as usual at that meeting, so there will be 7 actual decisions.
2. Compared with this year: All 8 meetings in 2026 will have a rate decision, with the last one on December 8–9. The final decision of 2027 will be on November 16–17. There is no December meeting that year; the next one is January 25–26, 2028.
3. Gaps: There are usually 6–7 weeks between decisions, but there will be a 9-week gap from September to November, and a 10-week gap from November to January 2028.
As usual, the statement will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. That’s 2 a.m. Beijing time during U.S. daylight saving time (March 14–November 7), and 3 a.m. the rest of the year:
- January 28, 03:00
- March 18, 02:00
- April 29, 02:00
- June 10, 02:00
- July 29, 02:00
- September 16, 02:00
- November 18, 03:00
There’s one decision left this year: December 10, 03:00 (for the December 8–9 meeting).
Three practical tips:
- Add the 7 times above to your phone calendar and set a reminder for the day before. If you trade futures, set your stop-loss and position size the night before, then get some sleep. Don’t leave yourself exposed with leverage while you wait for the decision.
- Check whether there’s a dot plot: in 2026, economic projections will accompany the March, June, September, and December meetings. The 2027 schedule hasn’t yet specified which meetings will include projections, so don’t assume anything in advance.
- Every date is tentative. The Fed only confirms it at the preceding meeting, so check the next date again after each meeting.
A little bluntness: one fewer meeting doesn’t mean one fewer rate-decision market take. The dates are set; you’re the one adding leverage.
Follow me for macro calendar reminders converted to Beijing time, so you don’t have to work out the time difference yourself.
#美联储 #FOMC #宏观日历 #InterestRates
The Fed will hold 8 meetings next year, but only 7 will tell you what happens to interest rates. On November 12, the Fed released a revised tentative schedule for its 2027 policy meetings. Here are the key details:
1. Number of meetings: There are 8 meetings. The one on October 26–27 is devoted to a broader discussion of the monetary policy framework. The Fed explicitly says it will not announce a rate decision as usual at that meeting, so there will be 7 actual decisions.
2. Compared with this year: All 8 meetings in 2026 will have a rate decision, with the last one on December 8–9. The final decision of 2027 will be on November 16–17. There is no December meeting that year; the next one is January 25–26, 2028.
3. Gaps: There are usually 6–7 weeks between decisions, but there will be a 9-week gap from September to November, and a 10-week gap from November to January 2028.
As usual, the statement will be released at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. That’s 2 a.m. Beijing time during U.S. daylight saving time (March 14–November 7), and 3 a.m. the rest of the year:
- January 28, 03:00
- March 18, 02:00
- April 29, 02:00
- June 10, 02:00
- July 29, 02:00
- September 16, 02:00
- November 18, 03:00
There’s one decision left this year: December 10, 03:00 (for the December 8–9 meeting).
Three practical tips:
- Add the 7 times above to your phone calendar and set a reminder for the day before. If you trade futures, set your stop-loss and position size the night before, then get some sleep. Don’t leave yourself exposed with leverage while you wait for the decision.
- Check whether there’s a dot plot: in 2026, economic projections will accompany the March, June, September, and December meetings. The 2027 schedule hasn’t yet specified which meetings will include projections, so don’t assume anything in advance.
- Every date is tentative. The Fed only confirms it at the preceding meeting, so check the next date again after each meeting.
A little bluntness: one fewer meeting doesn’t mean one fewer rate-decision market take. The dates are set; you’re the one adding leverage.
Follow me for macro calendar reminders converted to Beijing time, so you don’t have to work out the time difference yourself.
#美联储 #FOMC #宏观日历 #InterestRates
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Hot CPI confirmed. December hike is priced in.
BLS Oct CPI:
Headline: +0.4% MoM, Expected +0.3%
Core: +0.3% MoM, Expected +0.2%
Core = 0.3% for 3rd month in a row.
Why it matters?
Waller said before CPI: If Core is 0.3%+, consider 50bps hike in December.
Core printed exactly 0.3%. Condition met.
December FOMC Dec 8-9:
Current: 3.75% - 4.00%
Base case: +25bps
Now on table: +50bps
No cut. No pause. Hike vs bigger hike.
Reaction:
2Y Yield +17bps, biggest jump since April 2025
10Y Yield 4.98%
Gold -2.1%
$BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
below $74k
Lets Vote 25 or 50 - what will Fed do?
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #CPI #FOMC
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced
Hot CPI confirmed. December hike is priced in.
BLS Oct CPI:
Headline: +0.4% MoM, Expected +0.3%
Core: +0.3% MoM, Expected +0.2%
Core = 0.3% for 3rd month in a row.
Why it matters?
Waller said before CPI: If Core is 0.3%+, consider 50bps hike in December.
Core printed exactly 0.3%. Condition met.
December FOMC Dec 8-9:
Current: 3.75% - 4.00%
Base case: +25bps
Now on table: +50bps
No cut. No pause. Hike vs bigger hike.
Reaction:
2Y Yield +17bps, biggest jump since April 2025
10Y Yield 4.98%
Gold -2.1%
$BTC
below $74k
Lets Vote 25 or 50 - what will Fed do?
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #CPI #FOMC
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced
BLS Oct CPI:
Headline: +0.4% MoM, Expected +0.3%
Core: +0.3% MoM, Expected +0.2%
Core = 0.3% for 3rd month in a row.
Why it matters?
Waller said before CPI: If Core is 0.3%+, consider 50bps hike in December.
Core printed exactly 0.3%. Condition met.
December FOMC Dec 8-9:
Current: 3.75% - 4.00%
Base case: +25bps
Now on table: +50bps
No cut. No pause. Hike vs bigger hike.
Reaction:
2Y Yield +17bps, biggest jump since April 2025
10Y Yield 4.98%
Gold -2.1%
$BTC
below $74k
Lets Vote 25 or 50 - what will Fed do?
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced #CPI #FOMC
#HotCPIDecemberHikePriced
25
40%
50
60%
5 votes • Voting closed
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Philly Fed's Anna Paulson says further gradual rate hikes look appropriate.
• Paulson: "For now, further gradual tightening seems appropriate."
• She backed the September hike and the October hold, calling the skip a matter of pace, not direction
• She would move faster if inflation expectations or wage pressures rise, but sees neither now
Why it matters: More Fed hike signals shape the dollar, yields and risk appetite that crypto trades on.
Source: Philadelphia Fed (President Paulson speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.
💬 Is a December hike now the base case for crypto?
#Fed #FOMC #RateHike
Philly Fed's Anna Paulson says further gradual rate hikes look appropriate.
• Paulson: "For now, further gradual tightening seems appropriate."
• She backed the September hike and the October hold, calling the skip a matter of pace, not direction
• She would move faster if inflation expectations or wage pressures rise, but sees neither now
Why it matters: More Fed hike signals shape the dollar, yields and risk appetite that crypto trades on.
Source: Philadelphia Fed (President Paulson speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.
💬 Is a December hike now the base case for crypto?
#Fed #FOMC #RateHike
• Paulson: "For now, further gradual tightening seems appropriate."
• She backed the September hike and the October hold, calling the skip a matter of pace, not direction
• She would move faster if inflation expectations or wage pressures rise, but sees neither now
Why it matters: More Fed hike signals shape the dollar, yields and risk appetite that crypto trades on.
Source: Philadelphia Fed (President Paulson speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.
💬 Is a December hike now the base case for crypto?
#Fed #FOMC #RateHike
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Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan says the Fed needs at least two more 25 bps rate hikes, and they may come faster this winter.
• Logan: the FOMC needs at least two more 25 bps increases, possibly moving more rapidly this winter
• She estimates the fed funds range is at least 50 bps below a modestly restrictive level
• The Fed hiked in September and skipped in October; the next FOMC meeting is December 8-9
Why it matters: Fed rate expectations drive the dollar and risk appetite, and crypto often trades on shifts in those expectations.
Source: Dallas Fed (President Logan speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.
💬 Are two more Fed hikes already priced into crypto?
#Fed #FOMC #RateHike
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan says the Fed needs at least two more 25 bps rate hikes, and they may come faster this winter.
• Logan: the FOMC needs at least two more 25 bps increases, possibly moving more rapidly this winter
• She estimates the fed funds range is at least 50 bps below a modestly restrictive level
• The Fed hiked in September and skipped in October; the next FOMC meeting is December 8-9
Why it matters: Fed rate expectations drive the dollar and risk appetite, and crypto often trades on shifts in those expectations.
Source: Dallas Fed (President Logan speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.
💬 Are two more Fed hikes already priced into crypto?
#Fed #FOMC #RateHike
• Logan: the FOMC needs at least two more 25 bps increases, possibly moving more rapidly this winter
• She estimates the fed funds range is at least 50 bps below a modestly restrictive level
• The Fed hiked in September and skipped in October; the next FOMC meeting is December 8-9
Why it matters: Fed rate expectations drive the dollar and risk appetite, and crypto often trades on shifts in those expectations.
Source: Dallas Fed (President Logan speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.
💬 Are two more Fed hikes already priced into crypto?
#Fed #FOMC #RateHike
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Article
Just In: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Heat Up, 25 Basis Point December Move Almost Locked InAccording to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in December has jumped to approximately 85%–99%, with Fed Governor Waller explicitly stating he supports a 25 basis point hike in December and does not rule out 50 basis points if inflation data exceeds expectations.
Key signals:
🔹 Dallas Fed President Logan: At least two more 25 basis point hikes needed, possibly at a faster pace this winter
🔹 Waller: If core CPI rises 0.3% or more month-over-month, a 50 basis point move should be considered
🔹 October CPI exceeded expectations, with market pricing for a 50 basis point hike in December rising from near zero to over 13%
For crypto markets, this means liquidity tightening expectations are strengthening, and risk assets may face short-term pressure. However, if the rate hike lands and the Fed signals a pause, it could instead become a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" turning point.
The final decision depends on the December FOMC meeting.
#Fed #FOMC #InterestRates #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoMarket #Macro #RateHikeExpectations #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare #CPI #Inflation #RiskAssets #Trading
Just In: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Heat Up, 25 Basis Point December Move Almost Locked In
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in December has jumped to approximately 85%–99%, with Fed Governor Waller explicitly stating he supports a 25 basis point hike in December and does not rule out 50 basis points if inflation data exceeds expectations.
Key signals:
🔹 Dallas Fed President Logan: At least two more 25 basis point hikes needed, possibly at a faster pace this winter
🔹 Waller: If core CPI rises 0.3% or more month-over-month, a 50 basis point move should be considered
🔹 October CPI exceeded expectations, with market pricing for a 50 basis point hike in December rising from near zero to over 13%
For crypto markets, this means liquidity tightening expectations are strengthening, and risk assets may face short-term pressure. However, if the rate hike lands and the Fed signals a pause, it could instead become a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" turning point.
The final decision depends on the December FOMC meeting.
#Fed #FOMC #InterestRates #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoMarket #Macro #RateHikeExpectations #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare #CPI #Inflation #RiskAssets #Trading
Key signals:
🔹 Dallas Fed President Logan: At least two more 25 basis point hikes needed, possibly at a faster pace this winter
🔹 Waller: If core CPI rises 0.3% or more month-over-month, a 50 basis point move should be considered
🔹 October CPI exceeded expectations, with market pricing for a 50 basis point hike in December rising from near zero to over 13%
For crypto markets, this means liquidity tightening expectations are strengthening, and risk assets may face short-term pressure. However, if the rate hike lands and the Fed signals a pause, it could instead become a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" turning point.
The final decision depends on the December FOMC meeting.
#Fed #FOMC #InterestRates #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #CryptoMarket #Macro #RateHikeExpectations #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare #CPI #Inflation #RiskAssets #Trading
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Inflation has now run above the Fed's 2% target for 68 straight months, and annual CPI rose to 3.9% in October.
→ The fed funds rate hasn't dipped below 3.75% since November 2022, a 48-month stretch; it went back up to 4% in September
→ The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.93% after touching 5.37% in October
→ Chart: Charlie Bilello
I think the market has been grinding under high rates for 4 years, and a December hike is already priced in; the real question is what comes after. Worst case: if inflation tops 4%, December won't be the only hike and January comes into play too; I'm watching Friday's PPI.
#Economy #FOMC
Watching: $SPY $QQQ $IWM
Inflation has now run above the Fed's 2% target for 68 straight months, and annual CPI rose to 3.9% in October.
→ The fed funds rate hasn't dipped below 3.75% since November 2022, a 48-month stretch; it went back up to 4% in September
→ The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.93% after touching 5.37% in October
→ Chart: Charlie Bilello
I think the market has been grinding under high rates for 4 years, and a December hike is already priced in; the real question is what comes after. Worst case: if inflation tops 4%, December won't be the only hike and January comes into play too; I'm watching Friday's PPI.
#Economy #FOMC
Watching: $SPY $QQQ $IWM
→ The fed funds rate hasn't dipped below 3.75% since November 2022, a 48-month stretch; it went back up to 4% in September
→ The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.93% after touching 5.37% in October
→ Chart: Charlie Bilello
I think the market has been grinding under high rates for 4 years, and a December hike is already priced in; the real question is what comes after. Worst case: if inflation tops 4%, December won't be the only hike and January comes into play too; I'm watching Friday's PPI.
#Economy #FOMC
Watching: $SPY $QQQ $IWM
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🚨 THE MARKET MAY NOT BE DONE BLEEDING.
CPI came in hotter than expected, triggering a sell-off across markets:
BTC: -2.3%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -1.52%
S&P 500 Futures: -0.86%
Gold: -2.4%
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in roughly an 85% probability of a 50 bps rate hike in December.
Everyone is looking at the same thing right now: bearish CPI, higher rates, and another potential sell-off in Bitcoin.
But here's what I'm watching. 👇
I don't think the market has fully priced in what's coming next.
My expectation is that Bitcoin and the broader market could experience another significant downside move before the December FOMC meeting.
Why?
Because when everyone starts positioning in the same direction, the market often finds a way to surprise them.
I also believe we need to look beyond CPI and interest rates.
There are other major political and macroeconomic factors in play:
1️⃣ US Midterm Election Results: The shift in political power could influence the administration's economic priorities and its approach to inflation.
2️⃣ Trump's Policy Direction: We've recently seen changes in Trump's tone regarding Iran, alongside potential adjustments to trade and tariff policies. These developments could influence inflation expectations and market sentiment.
3️⃣ The Fed's Next Move: The biggest question is whether inflation can come down without the Fed having to tighten monetary policy further.
My thesis:
The market could continue adjusting lower into the December FOMC meeting, with the possibility of a much bigger move around that period.
And here's something worth remembering:
Bitcoin doesn't necessarily bottom when everyone becomes bearish. It bottoms when the market has already priced in the fear and most participants have given up.
I'm not calling for an immediate recovery.
I'm watching for more downside, more volatility, and potentially one of the most important market reactions of this year.
Don't get too comfortable with one-sided market positioning.
Stay patient. Watch liquidity. Watch macro.
#BTC #CPI #FOMC #Macro
🚨 THE MARKET MAY NOT BE DONE BLEEDING.
CPI came in hotter than expected, triggering a sell-off across markets:
BTC: -2.3%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -1.52%
S&P 500 Futures: -0.86%
Gold: -2.4%
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in roughly an 85% probability of a 50 bps rate hike in December.
Everyone is looking at the same thing right now: bearish CPI, higher rates, and another potential sell-off in Bitcoin.
But here's what I'm watching. 👇
I don't think the market has fully priced in what's coming next.
My expectation is that Bitcoin and the broader market could experience another significant downside move before the December FOMC meeting.
Why?
Because when everyone starts positioning in the same direction, the market often finds a way to surprise them.
I also believe we need to look beyond CPI and interest rates.
There are other major political and macroeconomic factors in play:
1️⃣ US Midterm Election Results: The shift in political power could influence the administration's economic priorities and its approach to inflation.
2️⃣ Trump's Policy Direction: We've recently seen changes in Trump's tone regarding Iran, alongside potential adjustments to trade and tariff policies. These developments could influence inflation expectations and market sentiment.
3️⃣ The Fed's Next Move: The biggest question is whether inflation can come down without the Fed having to tighten monetary policy further.
My thesis:
The market could continue adjusting lower into the December FOMC meeting, with the possibility of a much bigger move around that period.
And here's something worth remembering:
Bitcoin doesn't necessarily bottom when everyone becomes bearish. It bottoms when the market has already priced in the fear and most participants have given up.
I'm not calling for an immediate recovery.
I'm watching for more downside, more volatility, and potentially one of the most important market reactions of this year.
Don't get too comfortable with one-sided market positioning.
Stay patient. Watch liquidity. Watch macro.
#BTC #CPI #FOMC #Macro
CPI came in hotter than expected, triggering a sell-off across markets:
BTC: -2.3%
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -1.52%
S&P 500 Futures: -0.86%
Gold: -2.4%
Meanwhile, markets are pricing in roughly an 85% probability of a 50 bps rate hike in December.
Everyone is looking at the same thing right now: bearish CPI, higher rates, and another potential sell-off in Bitcoin.
But here's what I'm watching. 👇
I don't think the market has fully priced in what's coming next.
My expectation is that Bitcoin and the broader market could experience another significant downside move before the December FOMC meeting.
Why?
Because when everyone starts positioning in the same direction, the market often finds a way to surprise them.
I also believe we need to look beyond CPI and interest rates.
There are other major political and macroeconomic factors in play:
1️⃣ US Midterm Election Results: The shift in political power could influence the administration's economic priorities and its approach to inflation.
2️⃣ Trump's Policy Direction: We've recently seen changes in Trump's tone regarding Iran, alongside potential adjustments to trade and tariff policies. These developments could influence inflation expectations and market sentiment.
3️⃣ The Fed's Next Move: The biggest question is whether inflation can come down without the Fed having to tighten monetary policy further.
My thesis:
The market could continue adjusting lower into the December FOMC meeting, with the possibility of a much bigger move around that period.
And here's something worth remembering:
Bitcoin doesn't necessarily bottom when everyone becomes bearish. It bottoms when the market has already priced in the fear and most participants have given up.
I'm not calling for an immediate recovery.
I'm watching for more downside, more volatility, and potentially one of the most important market reactions of this year.
Don't get too comfortable with one-sided market positioning.
Stay patient. Watch liquidity. Watch macro.
#BTC #CPI #FOMC #Macro
394
·
--
Fed Governor Waller just put a 50 bps December hike on the table, hours before CPI.
• Waller supports a 25 bps hike in December even if October inflation improves
• If core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, he says 50 bps should be considered
• October CPI lands at 13:30 GMT on Nov. 10
Why it matters: Fed rate expectations drive the dollar and risk appetite, and crypto often trades on shifts in those expectations.
Source: Federal Reserve Board (Governor Waller speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.
💬 Is a 50 bps December hike priced into crypto yet?
#Fed #FOMC #CPI
Fed Governor Waller just put a 50 bps December hike on the table, hours before CPI.
• Waller supports a 25 bps hike in December even if October inflation improves
• If core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, he says 50 bps should be considered
• October CPI lands at 13:30 GMT on Nov. 10
Why it matters: Fed rate expectations drive the dollar and risk appetite, and crypto often trades on shifts in those expectations.
Source: Federal Reserve Board (Governor Waller speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.
💬 Is a 50 bps December hike priced into crypto yet?
#Fed #FOMC #CPI
• Waller supports a 25 bps hike in December even if October inflation improves
• If core CPI comes in around 0.3% or higher, he says 50 bps should be considered
• October CPI lands at 13:30 GMT on Nov. 10
Why it matters: Fed rate expectations drive the dollar and risk appetite, and crypto often trades on shifts in those expectations.
Source: Federal Reserve Board (Governor Waller speech, Nov. 10)
Not financial advice.
💬 Is a 50 bps December hike priced into crypto yet?
#Fed #FOMC #CPI
9
·
--
$BTC just made a new low, and the daily candle closed below the previous lows. This officially confirms the downtrend. At the moment, only the interest rate decision from #FOMC can clarify the market situation.
• Current price: $BTC is trading below the previous support level.
• Trend: Clearly bearish.
• Waiting for: The FOMC interest rate decision.
What’s your trading plan in this situation? Hold onto losing positions or take profits immediately?
$BTC just made a new low, and the daily candle closed below the previous lows. This officially confirms the downtrend. At the moment, only the interest rate decision from #FOMC can clarify the market situation.
• Current price: $BTC is trading below the previous support level.
• Trend: Clearly bearish.
• Waiting for: The FOMC interest rate decision.
What’s your trading plan in this situation? Hold onto losing positions or take profits immediately?
• Current price: $BTC is trading below the previous support level.
• Trend: Clearly bearish.
• Waiting for: The FOMC interest rate decision.
What’s your trading plan in this situation? Hold onto losing positions or take profits immediately?
27
🚨 JUST IN: TONIGHT 6:30 PM — THE NUMBER THAT DECIDES THE FED'S DECEMBER HIKE.
👀 This CPI is different.
Consensus: +0.3% headline, +0.2% core — cooler than September's +0.6%.
No annual number — last year's prices were never collected.
December hike odds near 75%.
$BTC $75,226, flat, waiting.
Hot or cool tonight — what are you expecting? #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #FederalReserveOctoberDecision #FOMC #Bitcoin #cryptonewstoday
🚨 JUST IN: TONIGHT 6:30 PM — THE NUMBER THAT DECIDES THE FED'S DECEMBER HIKE.
👀 This CPI is different.
Consensus: +0.3% headline, +0.2% core — cooler than September's +0.6%.
No annual number — last year's prices were never collected.
December hike odds near 75%.
$BTC $75,226, flat, waiting.
Hot or cool tonight — what are you expecting? #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #FederalReserveOctoberDecision #FOMC #Bitcoin #cryptonewstoday
👀 This CPI is different.
Consensus: +0.3% headline, +0.2% core — cooler than September's +0.6%.
No annual number — last year's prices were never collected.
December hike odds near 75%.
$BTC $75,226, flat, waiting.
Hot or cool tonight — what are you expecting? #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #FederalReserveOctoberDecision #FOMC #Bitcoin #cryptonewstoday
21
Those of you still waiting for “year-end liquidity easing,” wake up. On CME FedWatch, the probability of the FOMC holding rates steady on December 9 is already 0%.
A 25 bp hike is at 87.3%, and a 50 bp hike at 12.7%. Yesterday, the odds of a hike were still around 84%. Then CPI came out and sent them through the roof. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Dallas Fed President Logan twisted the knife, saying it might take two more hikes before rates reach a level where they can pause and assess.
All autumn, a bunch of people in crypto have been saying “liquidity is coming back”—telling themselves exactly what they want to hear. Rates are moving in the opposite direction, stablecoin supply is shrinking, ETFs are seeing outflows, and you’re telling me this is a great place to buy the dip?
BTC is at 73458 on Binance perpetuals right now, down 1.5% over 24 hours. It looks pretty resilient, but if rate hikes turn into a long-running series, this price may not actually be cheap.
#BTC #FOMC
Those of you still waiting for “year-end liquidity easing,” wake up. On CME FedWatch, the probability of the FOMC holding rates steady on December 9 is already 0%.
A 25 bp hike is at 87.3%, and a 50 bp hike at 12.7%. Yesterday, the odds of a hike were still around 84%. Then CPI came out and sent them through the roof. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Dallas Fed President Logan twisted the knife, saying it might take two more hikes before rates reach a level where they can pause and assess.
All autumn, a bunch of people in crypto have been saying “liquidity is coming back”—telling themselves exactly what they want to hear. Rates are moving in the opposite direction, stablecoin supply is shrinking, ETFs are seeing outflows, and you’re telling me this is a great place to buy the dip?
BTC is at 73458 on Binance perpetuals right now, down 1.5% over 24 hours. It looks pretty resilient, but if rate hikes turn into a long-running series, this price may not actually be cheap.
#BTC #FOMC
A 25 bp hike is at 87.3%, and a 50 bp hike at 12.7%. Yesterday, the odds of a hike were still around 84%. Then CPI came out and sent them through the roof. October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, versus 0.3% expected; core CPI rose 0.3%, versus 0.2% expected. Dallas Fed President Logan twisted the knife, saying it might take two more hikes before rates reach a level where they can pause and assess.
All autumn, a bunch of people in crypto have been saying “liquidity is coming back”—telling themselves exactly what they want to hear. Rates are moving in the opposite direction, stablecoin supply is shrinking, ETFs are seeing outflows, and you’re telling me this is a great place to buy the dip?
BTC is at 73458 on Binance perpetuals right now, down 1.5% over 24 hours. It looks pretty resilient, but if rate hikes turn into a long-running series, this price may not actually be cheap.
#BTC #FOMC
10
Partly True
Myth vs data: "When the Fed cuts rates, stocks go up." Since 1989, in 2 of 7 cut cycles the S&P 500 ($SPY ) was still red a year later.
→ 1989, 1995, 1998, 2019, 2024: +9.8% to +27.9% twelve months later
→ 2001: −9.7% at 12 months, −41% into the trough
→ 2007: −17.7% at 12 months, −56% into the trough
I think what drives stocks isn't the cut — it's why the Fed is cutting. Worst case: if employment keeps breaking down, cuts become a rescue, not insurance, and the 2001–2007 pattern is back on the table; watching.
Watching: $SPY $QQQ $IWM
#FOMC #Economy #Stocks
Myth vs data: "When the Fed cuts rates, stocks go up." Since 1989, in 2 of 7 cut cycles the S&P 500 ($SPY ) was still red a year later.
→ 1989, 1995, 1998, 2019, 2024: +9.8% to +27.9% twelve months later
→ 2001: −9.7% at 12 months, −41% into the trough
→ 2007: −17.7% at 12 months, −56% into the trough
I think what drives stocks isn't the cut — it's why the Fed is cutting. Worst case: if employment keeps breaking down, cuts become a rescue, not insurance, and the 2001–2007 pattern is back on the table; watching.
Watching: $SPY $QQQ $IWM
#FOMC #Economy #Stocks
→ 1989, 1995, 1998, 2019, 2024: +9.8% to +27.9% twelve months later
→ 2001: −9.7% at 12 months, −41% into the trough
→ 2007: −17.7% at 12 months, −56% into the trough
I think what drives stocks isn't the cut — it's why the Fed is cutting. Worst case: if employment keeps breaking down, cuts become a rescue, not insurance, and the 2001–2007 pattern is back on the table; watching.
Watching: $SPY $QQQ $IWM
#FOMC #Economy #Stocks
969
·
--
Partly True
🇺🇸FED WATCH: A December rate hike is looking increasingly likely.
Markets are now pricing in a 66.1% chance of a 25bps hike, which would push rates to 4.00%-4.25%.
Just last meeting, the Fed voted 10-2 to leave rates unchanged, with two members favoring a hike.
Unless incoming economic data shifts expectations, markets appear to be bracing for another round of tightening.
#BinanceReopensWithdrawalsForMoreAssets
#Binance98PercentReplenished
#USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting?
#fomc $BTC $XAU $XAG
🇺🇸FED WATCH: A December rate hike is looking increasingly likely.
Markets are now pricing in a 66.1% chance of a 25bps hike, which would push rates to 4.00%-4.25%.
Just last meeting, the Fed voted 10-2 to leave rates unchanged, with two members favoring a hike.
Unless incoming economic data shifts expectations, markets appear to be bracing for another round of tightening.
#BinanceReopensWithdrawalsForMoreAssets
#Binance98PercentReplenished
#USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting?
#fomc $BTC $XAU $XAG
Markets are now pricing in a 66.1% chance of a 25bps hike, which would push rates to 4.00%-4.25%.
Just last meeting, the Fed voted 10-2 to leave rates unchanged, with two members favoring a hike.
Unless incoming economic data shifts expectations, markets appear to be bracing for another round of tightening.
#BinanceReopensWithdrawalsForMoreAssets
#Binance98PercentReplenished
#USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting?
#fomc $BTC $XAU $XAG
1
397
FEDERAL RESERVE AND INTEREST-RATE OUTLOOK
.
The Federal Reserve remains a critical driver.
.
The latest Reuters reporting indicates traders have reduced some expectations for additional rate hikes next year following the election-related market moves. However, inflation and energy prices remain important risks.
.
The next scheduled FOMC meeting is December 8–9, 2026.
.
I would pay particular attention to inflation data and employment reports before that meeting.
.
Important: A weaker dollar does not necessarily mean the Fed will cut rates. We need confirmation from economic data.
.
#BinanceSquare #FOMC $BTC $ETH $ZEC
FEDERAL RESERVE AND INTEREST-RATE OUTLOOK
.
The Federal Reserve remains a critical driver.
.
The latest Reuters reporting indicates traders have reduced some expectations for additional rate hikes next year following the election-related market moves. However, inflation and energy prices remain important risks.
.
The next scheduled FOMC meeting is December 8–9, 2026.
.
I would pay particular attention to inflation data and employment reports before that meeting.
.
Important: A weaker dollar does not necessarily mean the Fed will cut rates. We need confirmation from economic data.
.
#BinanceSquare #FOMC $BTC $ETH $ZEC
.
The Federal Reserve remains a critical driver.
.
The latest Reuters reporting indicates traders have reduced some expectations for additional rate hikes next year following the election-related market moves. However, inflation and energy prices remain important risks.
.
The next scheduled FOMC meeting is December 8–9, 2026.
.
I would pay particular attention to inflation data and employment reports before that meeting.
.
Important: A weaker dollar does not necessarily mean the Fed will cut rates. We need confirmation from economic data.
.
#BinanceSquare #FOMC $BTC $ETH $ZEC
412
If you're still treating this week like any other FOMC, stop now.
That habit has cost traders millions when they FOMO into the first bounce and get stopped out by the next headline. Stacked events do not move in a straight line, and most people learn that the expensive way.
$BTC sits around $81K while the calendar throws everything at it at once. Monday and Tuesday are just the warm-up, with big company earnings keeping stocks and crypto nervous. Wednesday, October 28, brings the Fed decision plus Kevin Warsh's press conference, and markets expect rates to stay at 3.75-4.00%.
Thursday, October 29, drops US GDP and PCE inflation, the number the Fed actually cares about. Bank of Japan and ECB decisions land in the same window, then next Tuesday, November 3, US midterms add another layer of uncertainty.
This setup reminds me of those 2022 weeks when FOMC, CPI, and political noise stacked together and chopped both $BTC and $ETH for days. Alts like $SOL usually wait for Bitcoin to pick a side before they even bother moving.
Where do you think this packed week actually takes $BTC from here?
#Bitcoin #FOMC #CryptoTrading
If you're still treating this week like any other FOMC, stop now.
That habit has cost traders millions when they FOMO into the first bounce and get stopped out by the next headline. Stacked events do not move in a straight line, and most people learn that the expensive way.
$BTC sits around $81K while the calendar throws everything at it at once. Monday and Tuesday are just the warm-up, with big company earnings keeping stocks and crypto nervous. Wednesday, October 28, brings the Fed decision plus Kevin Warsh's press conference, and markets expect rates to stay at 3.75-4.00%.
Thursday, October 29, drops US GDP and PCE inflation, the number the Fed actually cares about. Bank of Japan and ECB decisions land in the same window, then next Tuesday, November 3, US midterms add another layer of uncertainty.
This setup reminds me of those 2022 weeks when FOMC, CPI, and political noise stacked together and chopped both $BTC and $ETH for days. Alts like $SOL usually wait for Bitcoin to pick a side before they even bother moving.
Where do you think this packed week actually takes $BTC from here?
#Bitcoin #FOMC #CryptoTrading
That habit has cost traders millions when they FOMO into the first bounce and get stopped out by the next headline. Stacked events do not move in a straight line, and most people learn that the expensive way.
$BTC sits around $81K while the calendar throws everything at it at once. Monday and Tuesday are just the warm-up, with big company earnings keeping stocks and crypto nervous. Wednesday, October 28, brings the Fed decision plus Kevin Warsh's press conference, and markets expect rates to stay at 3.75-4.00%.
Thursday, October 29, drops US GDP and PCE inflation, the number the Fed actually cares about. Bank of Japan and ECB decisions land in the same window, then next Tuesday, November 3, US midterms add another layer of uncertainty.
This setup reminds me of those 2022 weeks when FOMC, CPI, and political noise stacked together and chopped both $BTC and $ETH for days. Alts like $SOL usually wait for Bitcoin to pick a side before they even bother moving.
Where do you think this packed week actually takes $BTC from here?
#Bitcoin #FOMC #CryptoTrading
41
Have you noticed that $BTC keeps running the same playbook right before every FOMC in this range?
Most traders either panic sell the pre-meeting dip or FOMO the bounce after it already started. That is how you miss the actual entry and give back weeks of gains in a single session.
Last FOMC in this range, $BTC dropped 4% the day before, tagged a local bottom, and then pumped around 16% in a few days. The October 28-29 meeting sits two days away and lines up with the same bottom timing window. A possible scenario from here is another breakdown tomorrow, one day before FOMC, flushing remaining leverage just like last time. Then the event itself acts as the bounce catalyst rather than the crash. $ETH typically follows the same $BTC script on these moves.
The mainstream treats FOMC like a binary make-or-break moment. The recent case study in this range says it has been a local bottom after the shakeout, not the start of a new downtrend.
Where do you think this one goes from here?
#Bitcoin #FOMC #CryptoTrading
Have you noticed that $BTC keeps running the same playbook right before every FOMC in this range?
Most traders either panic sell the pre-meeting dip or FOMO the bounce after it already started. That is how you miss the actual entry and give back weeks of gains in a single session.
Last FOMC in this range, $BTC dropped 4% the day before, tagged a local bottom, and then pumped around 16% in a few days. The October 28-29 meeting sits two days away and lines up with the same bottom timing window. A possible scenario from here is another breakdown tomorrow, one day before FOMC, flushing remaining leverage just like last time. Then the event itself acts as the bounce catalyst rather than the crash. $ETH typically follows the same $BTC script on these moves.
The mainstream treats FOMC like a binary make-or-break moment. The recent case study in this range says it has been a local bottom after the shakeout, not the start of a new downtrend.
Where do you think this one goes from here?
#Bitcoin #FOMC #CryptoTrading
Most traders either panic sell the pre-meeting dip or FOMO the bounce after it already started. That is how you miss the actual entry and give back weeks of gains in a single session.
Last FOMC in this range, $BTC dropped 4% the day before, tagged a local bottom, and then pumped around 16% in a few days. The October 28-29 meeting sits two days away and lines up with the same bottom timing window. A possible scenario from here is another breakdown tomorrow, one day before FOMC, flushing remaining leverage just like last time. Then the event itself acts as the bounce catalyst rather than the crash. $ETH typically follows the same $BTC script on these moves.
The mainstream treats FOMC like a binary make-or-break moment. The recent case study in this range says it has been a local bottom after the shakeout, not the start of a new downtrend.
Where do you think this one goes from here?
#Bitcoin #FOMC #CryptoTrading
36
everyone thinks fomc week is just a guaranteed dump on $btc, but actually the last time we traded this same range the meeting marked a local bottom and price pumped about 16% in a few days.
most people lose money here by panicking one session too early. ngl a single red day feels like the start of a rug, so they exit the low and then fomo back in after the bounce is already gone.
we're two days out from the oct 28-29 fomc, right inside the window a lot of bottom expectations were already using. looking at the previous fomc in this range, price put in a negative 4% move the day before the meeting, tagged the low, and then ran roughly 16% over the next few days.
that makes tomorrow the interesting part. a breakdown one day before the meeting wouldn't be some new disaster, it would look a lot like the flush that set the last local bottom. if $btc holds after that, $eth usually follows the same snap higher instead of leading its own story.
anyone else seeing this as the same pre-fomc dip, or do you think the range breaks for real this time?
#bitcoin #fomc #crypto
everyone thinks fomc week is just a guaranteed dump on $btc, but actually the last time we traded this same range the meeting marked a local bottom and price pumped about 16% in a few days.
most people lose money here by panicking one session too early. ngl a single red day feels like the start of a rug, so they exit the low and then fomo back in after the bounce is already gone.
we're two days out from the oct 28-29 fomc, right inside the window a lot of bottom expectations were already using. looking at the previous fomc in this range, price put in a negative 4% move the day before the meeting, tagged the low, and then ran roughly 16% over the next few days.
that makes tomorrow the interesting part. a breakdown one day before the meeting wouldn't be some new disaster, it would look a lot like the flush that set the last local bottom. if $btc holds after that, $eth usually follows the same snap higher instead of leading its own story.
anyone else seeing this as the same pre-fomc dip, or do you think the range breaks for real this time?
#bitcoin #fomc #crypto
most people lose money here by panicking one session too early. ngl a single red day feels like the start of a rug, so they exit the low and then fomo back in after the bounce is already gone.
we're two days out from the oct 28-29 fomc, right inside the window a lot of bottom expectations were already using. looking at the previous fomc in this range, price put in a negative 4% move the day before the meeting, tagged the low, and then ran roughly 16% over the next few days.
that makes tomorrow the interesting part. a breakdown one day before the meeting wouldn't be some new disaster, it would look a lot like the flush that set the last local bottom. if $btc holds after that, $eth usually follows the same snap higher instead of leading its own story.
anyone else seeing this as the same pre-fomc dip, or do you think the range breaks for real this time?
#bitcoin #fomc #crypto
29
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