Tesla's Cybercab will make its official debut in Austin next weekโno steering wheel, and no pedals. Nevadaโs regulators had just, before that, loosened its grip on it in Las Vegas by allowing it to operate paid, driverless rides. This was supposed to be a fairly clean bullish story. But when the market opened on Monday, the entire rally from the previous week was fully given back.
$TSLAB hit a mid-session high of 366.42 last Friday, closed at 349.53 on Monday, then traded sideways for the following few days, and is now hovering around 349. The pricing window for this permission-related news is only a day and a bit. With the same news, bulls see it as a commercialization turning point; the sellerโs money is treated as a one-time positive catalyst, and the gap in between is what this article is set to unpack.
That Nevada Department of Transportation Services vote raised Teslaโs cap on driverless taxi vehicles in Clark County from 10 to 5,000, effective for the next year. At the same meeting, Waymo and Uber also received licenses, but at a smaller scale. This is the ceiling for permissionsโitโs a different thing from the number of vehicles already deployed. How big is the difference? Teslaโs own people put it more directly than anyone else. After the meeting, Cybercab chief engineer Eric Early said that 5,000 has always been the upper limit they were given. By this time next year, Tesla wonโt be able to deploy 5,000 vehicles either; he said the bottleneck isnโt technology. He added that being able to do a little over 2,500 vehicles would already make them very satisfied. For a companyโs chief engineer to proactively push down expectations on the very day it obtained the licenseโnobody says something like that casually.
The event scheduled for September 3 is set in Austin. Whatโs confirmed so far is that it will be invitation-only with the entire session livestreamed. Seats were given to the highest-scoring group of Robotaxi passengers from an in-app raffle. Teslaโs Model Y driverless cars have already been running for a while in several cities in Texas and Florida, and this event is more like inserting the Cybercab into a fleet thatโs already in motion. The โgetting it startedโ piece has happened long ago. A launch event that puts a new vehicle on stage, versus an operational change that can be recorded in the income statementโthose should be two different prices in the stock market.
The reason behind Mondayโs long black candle wasnโt actually about autonomous driving. News about a new round of auto tariffs weighed down the entire U.S. auto-plant sector. At the same time, China announced a recall covering nearly 3 million vehicles. The reason: after severe collisions and electrical circuit failures, the mechanical emergency door handles are not easy to find, which could block escape and rescue. The numbers look alarming, but the remediation is limitedโOTA software pushes plus warning labels. The actual money being paid out is limited. This round of checks on hidden door handles targeted multiple automakers at the same time; Tesla is simply the largest by market size among them. In Mondayโs drop, the sentiment drag was more than the bookkeeping loss on paper.
To judge how far robotaxis have progressed, mileage is the toughest set of data. Teslaโs Q2 earnings call revealed that cumulative supervised/unsupervised driving exceeded 380,000 miles. The company said that so far there hasnโt been any noteworthy accident. In the same metric for passenger-carrying, Waymoโs driverless ride miles by mid-year have already approached 200 million miles. The company said those miles can still keep rolling up by a large margin each week. Yet the gap between 380,000 and 200 million is a difference in scale, not the kind of small remaining segment left on a progress bar.
Robotaxis account for less than 0.5% of Teslaโs revenue last year, but in Morningstarโs valuation model they represent more than 30%. That firmโs current fair value estimate is $450โplacing todayโs price in the undervalued range. But this is a model from one institution; the market hasnโt formed that consensus. On the bullish side, the more aggressive view comes from Wedbushโs Dan Ives, with a $600 target price. His logic is that Tesla sells cars at near-cost prices to lock in the installed base, then recovers gross margin through software and mobility subscriptions.
The most specific argument from the bears comes from Gordon Johnson of GLJ. He counted an active Robotaxi fleet of only 31 vehicles; the number truly operating in an unsupervised manner is even smaller. They are all constrained within geofenced areas, and remote human staff are always ready to take over. He cites crowdsourced data to claim that on FSD v14, models like the AI4 need takeover about once every 40 miles. He then pulled up collision records over the past year involving safety drivers in the vehicle. His conclusion is that the marketโs valuation for robotaxis and the level of revenue this business can generate right now are not on the same scale. His reliance on crowdsourced data is a soft spot, and Tesla also hasnโt provided better public numbers to rebut either the fleet size or the takeover interval.
I agree with Morningstarโs framework. Robotaxis are indeed the main driver of this stockโs valuation; the auto-selling portion canโt currently support that price. In Q2 revenue, the company hit a record high, but operating margin fell to 1.4%. Earnings per share were far below market expectations, and capital expenditures are still moving higher. The core business is having cash eaten away along the autonomous-driving line; the pace of monetization must outpace the pace of consumption. But on the timeline, I weigh Earlyโs statements more than Ivesโs target price. For the $600 case, the subscription revenue and fleet revenue must bring gross margin back in next year. Earlyโs original wording indicates that the capacity and operations side arenโt ready yetโand that side canโt be accelerated by just writing code.
So on September 3, there is only one direction of signals that can change the judgment: whether there is a safety driver in the car, and whether the ride is actually paid. If either of those two points truly lands, Johnsonโs argument will immediately weaken significantly, and Nevadaโs 5,000-vehicle cap will shift from paper to a production-scheduling issue. If whatโs unveiled on stage is a vehicle without a steering wheel, paired with a livestream segment, then September 3 is a launch eventโnot a commercialization timing milestone.
The downside risk cuts just as sharply in the opposite direction. Musk himself said on the call that safety is the biggest constraint right now; one serious accident with casualties can become a global headline. Bad news along this line doesnโt need to be proportionalโone incident is enough. The string of updates tied to
#Robotaxi over the next two weeks means that rather than fixating on daily ups and downs, itโs better to record the safety-driver issue in your notebook. Whether the valuation model can hold hinges on that single variable.