This week, Tesla put its “transformation” out in the open. Musk confirmed in person that Cybertruck (Tesla’s stainless-steel electric pickup) will go out of production at the end of summer 2027, with all the freed-up capacity going to Cybercab (Tesla’s self-driving taxi). The truck was originally planned to produce 250,000 units a year, but last year it sold only about 20,000 in the U.S. After just three years of deliveries, it’s coming to an end. Musk himself admitted that “from a pure profit-maximization perspective, it wasn’t the wisest decision”; they kept it around for another year out of sentiment.
That same week, Tesla quietly removed the $41,990 all-wheel-drive Model Y from its lineup. The cheapest all-wheel-drive version left is the $49,990 Premium, while the only entry-level model is the $39,990 rear-wheel-drive version. And before that, production lines for the Model S and Model X had already been shut down to make room for Optimus (Tesla’s humanoid robot).
On one front, Tesla is cutting its product lineup; on another, it’s pushing ahead with both a potential merger and autonomous driving. Bloomberg reported Thursday that merger talks between Tesla and SpaceX have made progress, and an announcement could come as soon as December. Both companies are shifting toward AI, and a merger could also let them share the Terafab chip project—the plan to build chips for Optimus and autonomous driving. There’s also been tangible progress on the autonomous-driving front: Texas DMV registrations dated November 10 show Tesla had 1,302 registered Robotaxi vehicles (its self-driving taxi service), just edging past Waymo (Alphabet’s self-driving taxi company) at 1,297. When registrations were first made public in late May, Tesla had just 42 vehicles—a more than 30-fold increase in six months. Unsupervised miles driven in the third quarter rose eightfold quarter over quarter, to nearly 2 million miles. Paid FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscribers were up 67% year over year to 1.74 million, and more than 75% of new vehicles delivered in North America were subscribed to FSD at pickup. Finland just gave the green light, becoming the 11th EU country to grant temporary approval for FSD.
The chain of events is clear: cut models that aren’t selling, free up capacity and cash, and bet it all on autonomous driving and robots. The third quarter offered some early signs of progress: 486,500 vehicles delivered, topping 480,000 for a second consecutive quarter; automotive gross margin recovering to 18.5% from 17% a year earlier; free cash flow turning positive at $1.53 billion, up from negative $1.09 billion in the second quarter; and nearly all of Megapack (Tesla’s large-scale energy storage battery) production for 2027 already sold out.
But don’t focus only on the good news. First, Robotaxi registrations don’t mean those vehicles are making money: registered vehicles may not all be operating, and Waymo’s footprint extends beyond Texas. Tesla has yet to prove its vehicle utilization rates or profitability model. Second, the EU votes in December. For FSD to be approved across the bloc, it needs the support of at least 15 member states representing 65% of the population. If the vote fails, all 11 countries’ temporary approvals will be void. Third, the merger is still only at the “talks have made progress” stage: there’s no board approval or share-exchange ratio, and a December announcement may be nothing more than a timetable.
The stock has already priced in the story: it rose more than 15% over the past five trading days, but fell 1.82% with the broader market on Friday to close at $390.22. It’s still down about 12% year to date. Wall Street is divided too: the consensus remains “moderate buy,” with an average price target of $414.51. JPMorgan just raised its target from $415 to $430, while maintaining a Neutral rating, and GLJ Research reiterated its Sell rating on Friday.
What to watch: whether the SpaceX merger is announced in December, the EU’s December FSD vote, and whether Robotaxi revenue actually shows up in next year’s financial statements. Tesla is making a bet: it can sell fewer cars, but autonomous driving and robots have to deliver. If the bet pays off, $390 will be the floor; if it doesn’t, this 15% rally could evaporate at any moment.
#特斯拉 #Robotaxi
$TSLA $NVDA $QQQ
That same week, Tesla quietly removed the $41,990 all-wheel-drive Model Y from its lineup. The cheapest all-wheel-drive version left is the $49,990 Premium, while the only entry-level model is the $39,990 rear-wheel-drive version. And before that, production lines for the Model S and Model X had already been shut down to make room for Optimus (Tesla’s humanoid robot).
On one front, Tesla is cutting its product lineup; on another, it’s pushing ahead with both a potential merger and autonomous driving. Bloomberg reported Thursday that merger talks between Tesla and SpaceX have made progress, and an announcement could come as soon as December. Both companies are shifting toward AI, and a merger could also let them share the Terafab chip project—the plan to build chips for Optimus and autonomous driving. There’s also been tangible progress on the autonomous-driving front: Texas DMV registrations dated November 10 show Tesla had 1,302 registered Robotaxi vehicles (its self-driving taxi service), just edging past Waymo (Alphabet’s self-driving taxi company) at 1,297. When registrations were first made public in late May, Tesla had just 42 vehicles—a more than 30-fold increase in six months. Unsupervised miles driven in the third quarter rose eightfold quarter over quarter, to nearly 2 million miles. Paid FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscribers were up 67% year over year to 1.74 million, and more than 75% of new vehicles delivered in North America were subscribed to FSD at pickup. Finland just gave the green light, becoming the 11th EU country to grant temporary approval for FSD.
The chain of events is clear: cut models that aren’t selling, free up capacity and cash, and bet it all on autonomous driving and robots. The third quarter offered some early signs of progress: 486,500 vehicles delivered, topping 480,000 for a second consecutive quarter; automotive gross margin recovering to 18.5% from 17% a year earlier; free cash flow turning positive at $1.53 billion, up from negative $1.09 billion in the second quarter; and nearly all of Megapack (Tesla’s large-scale energy storage battery) production for 2027 already sold out.
But don’t focus only on the good news. First, Robotaxi registrations don’t mean those vehicles are making money: registered vehicles may not all be operating, and Waymo’s footprint extends beyond Texas. Tesla has yet to prove its vehicle utilization rates or profitability model. Second, the EU votes in December. For FSD to be approved across the bloc, it needs the support of at least 15 member states representing 65% of the population. If the vote fails, all 11 countries’ temporary approvals will be void. Third, the merger is still only at the “talks have made progress” stage: there’s no board approval or share-exchange ratio, and a December announcement may be nothing more than a timetable.
The stock has already priced in the story: it rose more than 15% over the past five trading days, but fell 1.82% with the broader market on Friday to close at $390.22. It’s still down about 12% year to date. Wall Street is divided too: the consensus remains “moderate buy,” with an average price target of $414.51. JPMorgan just raised its target from $415 to $430, while maintaining a Neutral rating, and GLJ Research reiterated its Sell rating on Friday.
What to watch: whether the SpaceX merger is announced in December, the EU’s December FSD vote, and whether Robotaxi revenue actually shows up in next year’s financial statements. Tesla is making a bet: it can sell fewer cars, but autonomous driving and robots have to deliver. If the bet pays off, $390 will be the floor; if it doesn’t, this 15% rally could evaporate at any moment.
#特斯拉 #Robotaxi
$TSLA $NVDA $QQQ