Tesla surged before retreating on Friday: opened at $401.68, hit an intraday high of $404.40, and closed at $390.22 (-1.82%), with a low of $385.83. It is still up about 13.5% over the past 5 trading days, down 13.2% year to date, with a market cap of about $1.54 trillion.
① Progress in autonomous driving is tangible: Texas DMV records show that as of November 10, Tesla had 1,302 registered Robotaxis, surpassing Waymo’s 1,297 for the first time. In the third quarter, cumulative driverless miles surged eightfold quarter over quarter to nearly 2 million miles, while paid FSD subscribers rose 67% year over year to 1.74 million. Finland approved FSD, becoming the 11th EU country to do so; an EU-wide vote in December is the next key milestone.
② Two major catalysts are on the horizon: merger talks with SpaceX are progressing, and an announcement could come as early as December. Cybertruck production has been extended through summer 2027 to free up capacity for Cybercab. Cyberbeast will become the sole configuration, with its price increasing by $7,500 to $109,990.
③ But the core car-selling business remains under pressure: China retail sales fell 66% year over year in October; third-quarter operating margin was just 2.6%, versus 5.8% in the same period last year; and Cybertruck sales in the US totaled just 20,237 last year, down 48% year over year.
④ Takeaway: The market is shifting its valuation of Tesla from “car sales” toward “autonomous driving + robotics.” Robotaxi surpassing Waymo is the first step in delivering on that narrative. However, a forward price-to-sales ratio of about 13x is already expensive. The consensus price target is $414.51, with a “Moderate Buy” rating, leaving limited upside. In the short term, watch support at $385; if that breaks, $376 is in view. The EU FSD vote in December and news on the SpaceX merger will set the direction.
⑤ Risks: Uncertainty around the EU FSD vote, merger talks potentially dragging on until 2027, further weakness in the automotive business, and a high valuation vulnerable to unmet expectations.
$TSLA $GOOGL
#特斯拉 #Robotaxi #自动驾驶 #US stocks
Personal research; not investment advice.
① Progress in autonomous driving is tangible: Texas DMV records show that as of November 10, Tesla had 1,302 registered Robotaxis, surpassing Waymo’s 1,297 for the first time. In the third quarter, cumulative driverless miles surged eightfold quarter over quarter to nearly 2 million miles, while paid FSD subscribers rose 67% year over year to 1.74 million. Finland approved FSD, becoming the 11th EU country to do so; an EU-wide vote in December is the next key milestone.
② Two major catalysts are on the horizon: merger talks with SpaceX are progressing, and an announcement could come as early as December. Cybertruck production has been extended through summer 2027 to free up capacity for Cybercab. Cyberbeast will become the sole configuration, with its price increasing by $7,500 to $109,990.
③ But the core car-selling business remains under pressure: China retail sales fell 66% year over year in October; third-quarter operating margin was just 2.6%, versus 5.8% in the same period last year; and Cybertruck sales in the US totaled just 20,237 last year, down 48% year over year.
④ Takeaway: The market is shifting its valuation of Tesla from “car sales” toward “autonomous driving + robotics.” Robotaxi surpassing Waymo is the first step in delivering on that narrative. However, a forward price-to-sales ratio of about 13x is already expensive. The consensus price target is $414.51, with a “Moderate Buy” rating, leaving limited upside. In the short term, watch support at $385; if that breaks, $376 is in view. The EU FSD vote in December and news on the SpaceX merger will set the direction.
⑤ Risks: Uncertainty around the EU FSD vote, merger talks potentially dragging on until 2027, further weakness in the automotive business, and a high valuation vulnerable to unmet expectations.
$TSLA $GOOGL
#特斯拉 #Robotaxi #自动驾驶 #US stocks
Personal research; not investment advice.
