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marketspricejust10
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THE FOMC MACROECONOMIC EQUATION
The market has already priced in its bet for next week's meeting:
(90% probability of a pause) + (stable data) = 10% chance of a rate hike.
What does this mean for risk assets ($JCT , $APR , $KAT )?
With a 90% chance of rates holding steady according to CME FedWatch, the base-case scenario is favorable for cryptocurrencies, since liquidity won't face an immediate squeeze.
However, there's a dangerous trap:
The market has already digested the decision itself. The real volatility will come from Jerome Powell's words. If the Fed announces a pause but maintains a hawkish tone, signaling that rates will stay high for longer, the market may reject the rally and correct
Strategy: Don't trade based solely on the rate decision. Pay close attention to the press conference and protect your positions.
Are you positioned for the rally, or are you expecting a hawkish surprise?
#marketspricejust10 %chanceoffedhikenext
THE FOMC MACROECONOMIC EQUATION
The market has already priced in its bet for next week's meeting:
(90% probability of a pause) + (stable data) = 10% chance of a rate hike.
What does this mean for risk assets ($JCT , $APR , $KAT )?
With a 90% chance of rates holding steady according to CME FedWatch, the base-case scenario is favorable for cryptocurrencies, since liquidity won't face an immediate squeeze.
However, there's a dangerous trap:
The market has already digested the decision itself. The real volatility will come from Jerome Powell's words. If the Fed announces a pause but maintains a hawkish tone, signaling that rates will stay high for longer, the market may reject the rally and correct
Strategy: Don't trade based solely on the rate decision. Pay close attention to the press conference and protect your positions.
Are you positioned for the rally, or are you expecting a hawkish surprise?
#marketspricejust10 %chanceoffedhikenext
The market has already priced in its bet for next week's meeting:
(90% probability of a pause) + (stable data) = 10% chance of a rate hike.
What does this mean for risk assets ($JCT , $APR , $KAT )?
With a 90% chance of rates holding steady according to CME FedWatch, the base-case scenario is favorable for cryptocurrencies, since liquidity won't face an immediate squeeze.
However, there's a dangerous trap:
The market has already digested the decision itself. The real volatility will come from Jerome Powell's words. If the Fed announces a pause but maintains a hawkish tone, signaling that rates will stay high for longer, the market may reject the rally and correct
Strategy: Don't trade based solely on the rate decision. Pay close attention to the press conference and protect your positions.
Are you positioned for the rally, or are you expecting a hawkish surprise?
#marketspricejust10 %chanceoffedhikenext
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The market is pricing in just a 10% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, a significant shift in sentiment. This decreased probability suggests that policymakers may be nearing the end of their tightening cycle, or at least pausing to assess economic conditions. Such a development could be viewed positively by risk assets, potentially leading to increased investor confidence and a more favorable environment for growth-oriented investments. However, it's crucial to monitor upcoming economic data releases for confirmation and to understand the underlying reasons for the Fed's potential pause. The focus now shifts to what the Fed might signal about future policy direction beyond the immediate meeting.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
The market is pricing in just a 10% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, a significant shift in sentiment. This decreased probability suggests that policymakers may be nearing the end of their tightening cycle, or at least pausing to assess economic conditions. Such a development could be viewed positively by risk assets, potentially leading to increased investor confidence and a more favorable environment for growth-oriented investments. However, it's crucial to monitor upcoming economic data releases for confirmation and to understand the underlying reasons for the Fed's potential pause. The focus now shifts to what the Fed might signal about future policy direction beyond the immediate meeting.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
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XMR | Rate-Hike Odds for Next Week in the Spotlight | Stronger Than BTC, but Still Needs a Pullback Confirmation
My stance is to watch cautiously, rather than interpret “only a 10% chance of a rate hike” as a green light to chase XMR unconditionally. Binance Square’s trending topics are discussing #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek. First, let’s establish the facts: the Federal Reserve’s website lists the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28, and no decision has been announced yet. The roughly 10% chance of a rate hike cited by the market is a pre-meeting expectation derived from futures prices, not a promise from the Fed. Futures-implied probabilities can also shift with economic data and positioning. Even if the probability of rates staying unchanged is high, we shouldn’t treat the outcome as a foregone conclusion.
This is relevant to XMR, but it isn’t an XMR-specific catalyst. If rate expectations stop rising, dollar liquidity and risk appetite could give crypto assets some breathing room. But XMR is also affected by privacy-coin trading channels, platform compliance, and developments in its ecosystem, so it won’t simply move in lockstep with BTC. One market reaction worth noting: when I checked Kraken’s live market, XMR/USD was around $605.2, above its opening price of $583.71 for the day, with an intraday low of $562.34 and a high of $607.69. At the same time, BTC/USD was around $80,328, below its opening price of $81,086. This snapshot only shows that XMR is relatively stronger; it doesn’t prove that “falling rate-hike odds caused the rise,” nor can the coins’ moves since their daily open be extrapolated into a future trend.
I’d treat $607–608 as short-term resistance, $592–595 as the first support zone to watch, and around $583 as a more important daily-open reference. If XMR breaks above $608 and holds that level on a pullback, while BTC stops falling below its own intraday low, I’d then consider whether the strength can continue. If XMR falls back below $592 and weakens on rising volume, its supposed independent strength may prove to be only a brief rotation. What would truly overturn my cautiously bullish outlook is a break below $583 without a quick recovery, or an official decision next week that is more hawkish than the market expects. The trending percentage needs to be updated continuously; a static screenshot shouldn’t be used as a basis for trading.
If I were trading this myself, I wouldn’t chase the price around $605. I’d only prepare a spot long plan, with no futures or leverage. I’d consider opening a test position using no more than 2% of my total capital only after XMR makes a decisive break above $608 and then holds above $600 on a pullback. My first target would be $620, where I’d sell half; the second target would be $635, where I’d sell half of the remainder. I’d place the initial stop below $592. If the price quickly falls back below $600 after breaking out, I’d close the position proactively. If the conditions don’t materialize, I’ll stay in cash. Ahead of the meeting, I’d rather miss a move than bet on the policy outcome.
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar, Binance Square’s current trending topics, and live XMR/USD and BTC/USD prices on Kraken. #XMR
The above is solely my personal market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
XMR | Rate-Hike Odds for Next Week in the Spotlight | Stronger Than BTC, but Still Needs a Pullback Confirmation
My stance is to watch cautiously, rather than interpret “only a 10% chance of a rate hike” as a green light to chase XMR unconditionally. Binance Square’s trending topics are discussing #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek. First, let’s establish the facts: the Federal Reserve’s website lists the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28, and no decision has been announced yet. The roughly 10% chance of a rate hike cited by the market is a pre-meeting expectation derived from futures prices, not a promise from the Fed. Futures-implied probabilities can also shift with economic data and positioning. Even if the probability of rates staying unchanged is high, we shouldn’t treat the outcome as a foregone conclusion.
This is relevant to XMR, but it isn’t an XMR-specific catalyst. If rate expectations stop rising, dollar liquidity and risk appetite could give crypto assets some breathing room. But XMR is also affected by privacy-coin trading channels, platform compliance, and developments in its ecosystem, so it won’t simply move in lockstep with BTC. One market reaction worth noting: when I checked Kraken’s live market, XMR/USD was around $605.2, above its opening price of $583.71 for the day, with an intraday low of $562.34 and a high of $607.69. At the same time, BTC/USD was around $80,328, below its opening price of $81,086. This snapshot only shows that XMR is relatively stronger; it doesn’t prove that “falling rate-hike odds caused the rise,” nor can the coins’ moves since their daily open be extrapolated into a future trend.
I’d treat $607–608 as short-term resistance, $592–595 as the first support zone to watch, and around $583 as a more important daily-open reference. If XMR breaks above $608 and holds that level on a pullback, while BTC stops falling below its own intraday low, I’d then consider whether the strength can continue. If XMR falls back below $592 and weakens on rising volume, its supposed independent strength may prove to be only a brief rotation. What would truly overturn my cautiously bullish outlook is a break below $583 without a quick recovery, or an official decision next week that is more hawkish than the market expects. The trending percentage needs to be updated continuously; a static screenshot shouldn’t be used as a basis for trading.
If I were trading this myself, I wouldn’t chase the price around $605. I’d only prepare a spot long plan, with no futures or leverage. I’d consider opening a test position using no more than 2% of my total capital only after XMR makes a decisive break above $608 and then holds above $600 on a pullback. My first target would be $620, where I’d sell half; the second target would be $635, where I’d sell half of the remainder. I’d place the initial stop below $592. If the price quickly falls back below $600 after breaking out, I’d close the position proactively. If the conditions don’t materialize, I’ll stay in cash. Ahead of the meeting, I’d rather miss a move than bet on the policy outcome.
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar, Binance Square’s current trending topics, and live XMR/USD and BTC/USD prices on Kraken. #XMR
The above is solely my personal market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is to watch cautiously, rather than interpret “only a 10% chance of a rate hike” as a green light to chase XMR unconditionally. Binance Square’s trending topics are discussing #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek. First, let’s establish the facts: the Federal Reserve’s website lists the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28, and no decision has been announced yet. The roughly 10% chance of a rate hike cited by the market is a pre-meeting expectation derived from futures prices, not a promise from the Fed. Futures-implied probabilities can also shift with economic data and positioning. Even if the probability of rates staying unchanged is high, we shouldn’t treat the outcome as a foregone conclusion.
This is relevant to XMR, but it isn’t an XMR-specific catalyst. If rate expectations stop rising, dollar liquidity and risk appetite could give crypto assets some breathing room. But XMR is also affected by privacy-coin trading channels, platform compliance, and developments in its ecosystem, so it won’t simply move in lockstep with BTC. One market reaction worth noting: when I checked Kraken’s live market, XMR/USD was around $605.2, above its opening price of $583.71 for the day, with an intraday low of $562.34 and a high of $607.69. At the same time, BTC/USD was around $80,328, below its opening price of $81,086. This snapshot only shows that XMR is relatively stronger; it doesn’t prove that “falling rate-hike odds caused the rise,” nor can the coins’ moves since their daily open be extrapolated into a future trend.
I’d treat $607–608 as short-term resistance, $592–595 as the first support zone to watch, and around $583 as a more important daily-open reference. If XMR breaks above $608 and holds that level on a pullback, while BTC stops falling below its own intraday low, I’d then consider whether the strength can continue. If XMR falls back below $592 and weakens on rising volume, its supposed independent strength may prove to be only a brief rotation. What would truly overturn my cautiously bullish outlook is a break below $583 without a quick recovery, or an official decision next week that is more hawkish than the market expects. The trending percentage needs to be updated continuously; a static screenshot shouldn’t be used as a basis for trading.
If I were trading this myself, I wouldn’t chase the price around $605. I’d only prepare a spot long plan, with no futures or leverage. I’d consider opening a test position using no more than 2% of my total capital only after XMR makes a decisive break above $608 and then holds above $600 on a pullback. My first target would be $620, where I’d sell half; the second target would be $635, where I’d sell half of the remainder. I’d place the initial stop below $592. If the price quickly falls back below $600 after breaking out, I’d close the position proactively. If the conditions don’t materialize, I’ll stay in cash. Ahead of the meeting, I’d rather miss a move than bet on the policy outcome.
Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar, Binance Square’s current trending topics, and live XMR/USD and BTC/USD prices on Kraken. #XMR
The above is solely my personal market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
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BTC and next week’s Fed meeting | A “one-in-ten chance of a rate hike” is not a bullish catalyst being realized | Hold $80,000 before considering an entry
My stance is defensive. A trending topic on Binance Square says there is only a 10% chance of a rate hike next week, but I won’t turn a snapshot estimate from the futures market into a claim that the Fed has already decided to hold rates. Nor will I chase BTC based on a single probability figure. The Fed’s official calendar confirms that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28; the decision is still in the future. CME FedWatch explains that its probabilities are derived from 30-day federal funds futures prices and can change with trading and incoming data. A trending topic is a snapshot of market expectations, not a central bank announcement. A market commentary on October 23 cited CME data showing an approximately 91.7% expectation of a rate hold, but that figure reflected market pricing at the time and should not be treated as a precise real-time value today.
Why does this matter for BTC? Expectations for short-term interest rates affect the cost of dollar funding, Treasury yields, and the valuation of risk assets. If the market has already priced in a “pause in rate hikes,” the factor that ultimately determines price direction may not be the decision itself, but what the statement and post-meeting communication imply about the path in December. For BTC, it is especially important to distinguish between two things: macro expectations may make leveraged traders more willing to take on risk, but that does not mean ETFs are consistently accumulating at the same time. Farside’s U.S. spot BTC fund table for October 23 showed approximate net outflows of $110.3 million for IBIT and $31.8 million for FBTC, and a net inflow of about $4.2 million for MSBT. HODL was still marked with a dash, so the automatically calculated net outflow of about $137.9 million should not be treated as a complete final figure. There is not yet enough flow evidence to support the claim that “institutions are returning across the board.”
Price action itself has not confirmed the easing narrative either. At the time of writing, BTC/USD was around $80,682 on Kraken, with a daily open near $81,086, a rolling 24-hour low around $80,305, and a high around $81,943. Price is near the bottom of the range, indicating that even with rate-hike expectations cooling, buyers had not managed a breakout at that point. Of course, a one-day decline cannot be attributed entirely to the Fed; stocks, oil prices, and weekend liquidity may also be factors. The key levels I’m watching are the $80,000 round-number mark and the upper boundary near $81,900: a break below the former would mean the defense is weakening; only a move back above the latter, accompanied by spot volume, would suggest the market is beginning to reprice.
If I were trading this myself, I would stay out for now and only consider a small, conditional long if the setup criteria are met. I would limit the position to no more than 2% of total capital and avoid high leverage. The entry trigger would be for BTC to first reclaim $81,900, then hold above $81,000 on a retest, with subsequent ETF disclosures showing verifiable net inflows rather than missing data. I would consider scaling in between $81,000 and $81,900 only if both conditions are met. The first target is $84,000, where I would sell half; the second target is $85,000, where I would close the rest. After entry, I would stop out immediately if price falls below $79,800. If the FOMC statement is notably hawkish, yields rise, and BTC loses $80,000, I would close the entire position even if the targets have not been reached. If BTC breaks directly below $80,000, the original bullish plan is invalidated, and I would stay flat until there is new evidence. This is a plan with no trigger yet; no trades have been made and no profits have been recorded.
Sources: Fed meeting calendar, CME FedWatch explanation, Farside fund-flow table, Kraken BTC/USD snapshot. #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #BTC
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
BTC and next week’s Fed meeting | A “one-in-ten chance of a rate hike” is not a bullish catalyst being realized | Hold $80,000 before considering an entry
My stance is defensive. A trending topic on Binance Square says there is only a 10% chance of a rate hike next week, but I won’t turn a snapshot estimate from the futures market into a claim that the Fed has already decided to hold rates. Nor will I chase BTC based on a single probability figure. The Fed’s official calendar confirms that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28; the decision is still in the future. CME FedWatch explains that its probabilities are derived from 30-day federal funds futures prices and can change with trading and incoming data. A trending topic is a snapshot of market expectations, not a central bank announcement. A market commentary on October 23 cited CME data showing an approximately 91.7% expectation of a rate hold, but that figure reflected market pricing at the time and should not be treated as a precise real-time value today.
Why does this matter for BTC? Expectations for short-term interest rates affect the cost of dollar funding, Treasury yields, and the valuation of risk assets. If the market has already priced in a “pause in rate hikes,” the factor that ultimately determines price direction may not be the decision itself, but what the statement and post-meeting communication imply about the path in December. For BTC, it is especially important to distinguish between two things: macro expectations may make leveraged traders more willing to take on risk, but that does not mean ETFs are consistently accumulating at the same time. Farside’s U.S. spot BTC fund table for October 23 showed approximate net outflows of $110.3 million for IBIT and $31.8 million for FBTC, and a net inflow of about $4.2 million for MSBT. HODL was still marked with a dash, so the automatically calculated net outflow of about $137.9 million should not be treated as a complete final figure. There is not yet enough flow evidence to support the claim that “institutions are returning across the board.”
Price action itself has not confirmed the easing narrative either. At the time of writing, BTC/USD was around $80,682 on Kraken, with a daily open near $81,086, a rolling 24-hour low around $80,305, and a high around $81,943. Price is near the bottom of the range, indicating that even with rate-hike expectations cooling, buyers had not managed a breakout at that point. Of course, a one-day decline cannot be attributed entirely to the Fed; stocks, oil prices, and weekend liquidity may also be factors. The key levels I’m watching are the $80,000 round-number mark and the upper boundary near $81,900: a break below the former would mean the defense is weakening; only a move back above the latter, accompanied by spot volume, would suggest the market is beginning to reprice.
If I were trading this myself, I would stay out for now and only consider a small, conditional long if the setup criteria are met. I would limit the position to no more than 2% of total capital and avoid high leverage. The entry trigger would be for BTC to first reclaim $81,900, then hold above $81,000 on a retest, with subsequent ETF disclosures showing verifiable net inflows rather than missing data. I would consider scaling in between $81,000 and $81,900 only if both conditions are met. The first target is $84,000, where I would sell half; the second target is $85,000, where I would close the rest. After entry, I would stop out immediately if price falls below $79,800. If the FOMC statement is notably hawkish, yields rise, and BTC loses $80,000, I would close the entire position even if the targets have not been reached. If BTC breaks directly below $80,000, the original bullish plan is invalidated, and I would stay flat until there is new evidence. This is a plan with no trigger yet; no trades have been made and no profits have been recorded.
Sources: Fed meeting calendar, CME FedWatch explanation, Farside fund-flow table, Kraken BTC/USD snapshot. #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #BTC
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
My stance is defensive. A trending topic on Binance Square says there is only a 10% chance of a rate hike next week, but I won’t turn a snapshot estimate from the futures market into a claim that the Fed has already decided to hold rates. Nor will I chase BTC based on a single probability figure. The Fed’s official calendar confirms that the next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28; the decision is still in the future. CME FedWatch explains that its probabilities are derived from 30-day federal funds futures prices and can change with trading and incoming data. A trending topic is a snapshot of market expectations, not a central bank announcement. A market commentary on October 23 cited CME data showing an approximately 91.7% expectation of a rate hold, but that figure reflected market pricing at the time and should not be treated as a precise real-time value today.
Why does this matter for BTC? Expectations for short-term interest rates affect the cost of dollar funding, Treasury yields, and the valuation of risk assets. If the market has already priced in a “pause in rate hikes,” the factor that ultimately determines price direction may not be the decision itself, but what the statement and post-meeting communication imply about the path in December. For BTC, it is especially important to distinguish between two things: macro expectations may make leveraged traders more willing to take on risk, but that does not mean ETFs are consistently accumulating at the same time. Farside’s U.S. spot BTC fund table for October 23 showed approximate net outflows of $110.3 million for IBIT and $31.8 million for FBTC, and a net inflow of about $4.2 million for MSBT. HODL was still marked with a dash, so the automatically calculated net outflow of about $137.9 million should not be treated as a complete final figure. There is not yet enough flow evidence to support the claim that “institutions are returning across the board.”
Price action itself has not confirmed the easing narrative either. At the time of writing, BTC/USD was around $80,682 on Kraken, with a daily open near $81,086, a rolling 24-hour low around $80,305, and a high around $81,943. Price is near the bottom of the range, indicating that even with rate-hike expectations cooling, buyers had not managed a breakout at that point. Of course, a one-day decline cannot be attributed entirely to the Fed; stocks, oil prices, and weekend liquidity may also be factors. The key levels I’m watching are the $80,000 round-number mark and the upper boundary near $81,900: a break below the former would mean the defense is weakening; only a move back above the latter, accompanied by spot volume, would suggest the market is beginning to reprice.
If I were trading this myself, I would stay out for now and only consider a small, conditional long if the setup criteria are met. I would limit the position to no more than 2% of total capital and avoid high leverage. The entry trigger would be for BTC to first reclaim $81,900, then hold above $81,000 on a retest, with subsequent ETF disclosures showing verifiable net inflows rather than missing data. I would consider scaling in between $81,000 and $81,900 only if both conditions are met. The first target is $84,000, where I would sell half; the second target is $85,000, where I would close the rest. After entry, I would stop out immediately if price falls below $79,800. If the FOMC statement is notably hawkish, yields rise, and BTC loses $80,000, I would close the entire position even if the targets have not been reached. If BTC breaks directly below $80,000, the original bullish plan is invalidated, and I would stay flat until there is new evidence. This is a plan with no trigger yet; no trades have been made and no profits have been recorded.
Sources: Fed meeting calendar, CME FedWatch explanation, Farside fund-flow table, Kraken BTC/USD snapshot. #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #BTC
The above is solely my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
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Verified
TRUMP’S OIL WARNING: NATIONAL SECURITY VS. RISING ENERGY COSTS
Donald Trump is making his position clear: higher oil prices are an acceptable cost, in his view, if military action prevents Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
The statement puts global markets in the spotlight. Oil prices are closely tied to geopolitical stability, shipping routes, and investor confidence. Any escalation or breakthrough in the Iran conflict could influence energy prices, inflation, and market sentiment.
Trump has also predicted that oil prices could fall sharply once the conflict ends, but the timeline remains uncertain.
For investors, the key question is what happens next. Will tensions ease and bring relief to energy markets, or will prolonged uncertainty keep prices under pressure?
$BMT $TRUMP $BIRB
Earnings Season | Binance Pick | Fed Rate Expectations | US Consumer Sentiment
#EarningsSeason #BinancePick #MarketsPriceJust10
TRUMP’S OIL WARNING: NATIONAL SECURITY VS. RISING ENERGY COSTS
Donald Trump is making his position clear: higher oil prices are an acceptable cost, in his view, if military action prevents Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
The statement puts global markets in the spotlight. Oil prices are closely tied to geopolitical stability, shipping routes, and investor confidence. Any escalation or breakthrough in the Iran conflict could influence energy prices, inflation, and market sentiment.
Trump has also predicted that oil prices could fall sharply once the conflict ends, but the timeline remains uncertain.
For investors, the key question is what happens next. Will tensions ease and bring relief to energy markets, or will prolonged uncertainty keep prices under pressure?
$BMT $TRUMP $BIRB
Earnings Season | Binance Pick | Fed Rate Expectations | US Consumer Sentiment
#EarningsSeason #BinancePick #MarketsPriceJust10
Donald Trump is making his position clear: higher oil prices are an acceptable cost, in his view, if military action prevents Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
The statement puts global markets in the spotlight. Oil prices are closely tied to geopolitical stability, shipping routes, and investor confidence. Any escalation or breakthrough in the Iran conflict could influence energy prices, inflation, and market sentiment.
Trump has also predicted that oil prices could fall sharply once the conflict ends, but the timeline remains uncertain.
For investors, the key question is what happens next. Will tensions ease and bring relief to energy markets, or will prolonged uncertainty keep prices under pressure?
$BMT $TRUMP $BIRB
Earnings Season | Binance Pick | Fed Rate Expectations | US Consumer Sentiment
#EarningsSeason #BinancePick #MarketsPriceJust10
Pearline Bleicher uCZt:
look like taking revenge from all public at the cost of the world for his own name & election benefit , politics stunts at the cost war inspite of destroyed everything of economic prosperity
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🚨 BTC dipped below $80,000 last night. It bounced back above $81,000 by morning. The dip buyers came from nowhere — the ETF flow says they were not institutions.
1. BTC touched $79,800 before recovering to $81,017 (+0.07% on 24h, Binance spot). This was the first break below $80K since June.
2. Spot ETFs pulled $635M out in one day, $773M over two days — the biggest outflow since June (Yahoo Finance). Institutions sold the bounce, they did not buy it.
3. $404M in longs were liquidated within 4 hours of the break. 102,425 traders were wiped out across the market in 24h (Coinglass).
My take: the bounce is retail money. If ETFs keep bleeding next week, $80K breaks again before the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
What to watch: the daily ETF flow number. A second straight day above $500M out and the floor is gone.
Bull or bear into the Fed?
$BTC #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #TradingStrategy #FederalReserve
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全量化交易，抓住每一个市场机会。
🚨 BTC dipped below $80,000 last night. It bounced back above $81,000 by morning. The dip buyers came from nowhere — the ETF flow says they were not institutions.
1. BTC touched $79,800 before recovering to $81,017 (+0.07% on 24h, Binance spot). This was the first break below $80K since June.
2. Spot ETFs pulled $635M out in one day, $773M over two days — the biggest outflow since June (Yahoo Finance). Institutions sold the bounce, they did not buy it.
3. $404M in longs were liquidated within 4 hours of the break. 102,425 traders were wiped out across the market in 24h (Coinglass).
My take: the bounce is retail money. If ETFs keep bleeding next week, $80K breaks again before the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
What to watch: the daily ETF flow number. A second straight day above $500M out and the floor is gone.
Bull or bear into the Fed?
$BTC #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #TradingStrategy #FederalReserve
——
全量化交易，抓住每一个市场机会。
1. BTC touched $79,800 before recovering to $81,017 (+0.07% on 24h, Binance spot). This was the first break below $80K since June.
2. Spot ETFs pulled $635M out in one day, $773M over two days — the biggest outflow since June (Yahoo Finance). Institutions sold the bounce, they did not buy it.
3. $404M in longs were liquidated within 4 hours of the break. 102,425 traders were wiped out across the market in 24h (Coinglass).
My take: the bounce is retail money. If ETFs keep bleeding next week, $80K breaks again before the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
What to watch: the daily ETF flow number. A second straight day above $500M out and the floor is gone.
Bull or bear into the Fed?
$BTC #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #TradingStrategy #FederalReserve
——
全量化交易，抓住每一个市场机会。
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#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
🇺🇸 Fed Hold Odds Climb to 95%. December Is the Real Fight
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, with the decision Wednesday at 2 PM ET
📊 Kalshi prices a hold at 94% and Polymarket at 95.5%, up from about 88% a week ago
📈 A December 9 hike is still priced near 74-76%
🏦 Rates sit at 3.75-4.00% after September's 25bp hike, in Warsh's 4th meeting as Chair
🗣️ Warsh said Friday "I don't prejudge meetings," and hike odds fell after the speech
⚠️ Watch the December guidance and any dissents; three officials dissented for a hike in July
What it means for crypto: a hold is mostly priced in, so a hawkish tone on December could weigh on risk assets, while a softer one could ease pressure. Bitcoin is near $80.3K, flat on the day.
Will Warsh keep December on the table? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #FOMC #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
🇺🇸 Fed Hold Odds Climb to 95%. December Is the Real Fight
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, with the decision Wednesday at 2 PM ET
📊 Kalshi prices a hold at 94% and Polymarket at 95.5%, up from about 88% a week ago
📈 A December 9 hike is still priced near 74-76%
🏦 Rates sit at 3.75-4.00% after September's 25bp hike, in Warsh's 4th meeting as Chair
🗣️ Warsh said Friday "I don't prejudge meetings," and hike odds fell after the speech
⚠️ Watch the December guidance and any dissents; three officials dissented for a hike in July
What it means for crypto: a hold is mostly priced in, so a hawkish tone on December could weigh on risk assets, while a softer one could ease pressure. Bitcoin is near $80.3K, flat on the day.
Will Warsh keep December on the table? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #FOMC #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
🇺🇸 Fed Hold Odds Climb to 95%. December Is the Real Fight
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, with the decision Wednesday at 2 PM ET
📊 Kalshi prices a hold at 94% and Polymarket at 95.5%, up from about 88% a week ago
📈 A December 9 hike is still priced near 74-76%
🏦 Rates sit at 3.75-4.00% after September's 25bp hike, in Warsh's 4th meeting as Chair
🗣️ Warsh said Friday "I don't prejudge meetings," and hike odds fell after the speech
⚠️ Watch the December guidance and any dissents; three officials dissented for a hike in July
What it means for crypto: a hold is mostly priced in, so a hawkish tone on December could weigh on risk assets, while a softer one could ease pressure. Bitcoin is near $80.3K, flat on the day.
Will Warsh keep December on the table? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #FOMC #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
7
·
--
Good afternoon again, and $BTC is doing its best impression of a guest who refuses to leave the hallway. Near $80,600 after dipping to $79,221, it sits below every short term average in one weekend read, with the 7 day average near $81,870, the 20 day near $82,364 and the 50 day near $81,861. That is a funny kind of patience test right before the Fed meeting on Oct 27 to 28, with one Oct 25 technical read flagging resistance near $81,483 and $82,418 and support near $80,117.
The majors are not helping the mood much either. $ETH trades near $2,342, down about 1.3% on the day, and SOL sits near $102, barely moved, while the market waits for a catalyst big enough to matter. A quiet tape into a Fed week can feel boring, but boring is usually when the next move quietly loads up.
So here is the Sunday question. Does $BTC reclaim $81,500 first and turn this hallway into a road to higher ground, or does the $80,117 support get tested again before the Fed even speaks?
#BinancePick #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
Good afternoon again, and $BTC is doing its best impression of a guest who refuses to leave the hallway. Near $80,600 after dipping to $79,221, it sits below every short term average in one weekend read, with the 7 day average near $81,870, the 20 day near $82,364 and the 50 day near $81,861. That is a funny kind of patience test right before the Fed meeting on Oct 27 to 28, with one Oct 25 technical read flagging resistance near $81,483 and $82,418 and support near $80,117.
The majors are not helping the mood much either. $ETH trades near $2,342, down about 1.3% on the day, and SOL sits near $102, barely moved, while the market waits for a catalyst big enough to matter. A quiet tape into a Fed week can feel boring, but boring is usually when the next move quietly loads up.
So here is the Sunday question. Does $BTC reclaim $81,500 first and turn this hallway into a road to higher ground, or does the $80,117 support get tested again before the Fed even speaks?
#BinancePick #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
The majors are not helping the mood much either. $ETH trades near $2,342, down about 1.3% on the day, and SOL sits near $102, barely moved, while the market waits for a catalyst big enough to matter. A quiet tape into a Fed week can feel boring, but boring is usually when the next move quietly loads up.
So here is the Sunday question. Does $BTC reclaim $81,500 first and turn this hallway into a road to higher ground, or does the $80,117 support get tested again before the Fed even speaks?
#BinancePick #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
140
·
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Good morning again, and while $BTC naps near $80,930, the privacy coins are quietly stealing the weekend show. ZEC trades near $1,218, up about 3.7% on the day, after closing Saturday near $1,209, and XMR closed Saturday near $615, up 5.2% on the day. A Santiment weekly summary put the pair at the top of the large cap board, with XMR up 6.6% and ZEC up 6.2% for the week while $BTC and $ETH slipped, which is a funny kind of shelter trade for a nervous weekend.
The story underneath is simple enough to love. When the broad market gets jumpy, traders seem to pay a little extra for coins that keep transactions private by design, while the majors just sit and wait for a catalyst. Meanwhile the Fed meeting on Oct 27 to 28 is still the big test ahead, and one widely shared weekend read flags a weekly close below $83,000 as the line that would keep the bears loud.
So here is the Sunday question. Is this privacy rotation a real shelter trade while the market waits for the Fed, or just a quiet weekend mood that fades when the majors wake up?
#BinancePick #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
Good morning again, and while $BTC naps near $80,930, the privacy coins are quietly stealing the weekend show. ZEC trades near $1,218, up about 3.7% on the day, after closing Saturday near $1,209, and XMR closed Saturday near $615, up 5.2% on the day. A Santiment weekly summary put the pair at the top of the large cap board, with XMR up 6.6% and ZEC up 6.2% for the week while $BTC and $ETH slipped, which is a funny kind of shelter trade for a nervous weekend.
The story underneath is simple enough to love. When the broad market gets jumpy, traders seem to pay a little extra for coins that keep transactions private by design, while the majors just sit and wait for a catalyst. Meanwhile the Fed meeting on Oct 27 to 28 is still the big test ahead, and one widely shared weekend read flags a weekly close below $83,000 as the line that would keep the bears loud.
So here is the Sunday question. Is this privacy rotation a real shelter trade while the market waits for the Fed, or just a quiet weekend mood that fades when the majors wake up?
#BinancePick #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
The story underneath is simple enough to love. When the broad market gets jumpy, traders seem to pay a little extra for coins that keep transactions private by design, while the majors just sit and wait for a catalyst. Meanwhile the Fed meeting on Oct 27 to 28 is still the big test ahead, and one widely shared weekend read flags a weekly close below $83,000 as the line that would keep the bears loud.
So here is the Sunday question. Is this privacy rotation a real shelter trade while the market waits for the Fed, or just a quiet weekend mood that fades when the majors wake up?
#BinancePick #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
275
·
--
$PHA -18%. last time i shorted PHA it stopped me out, so i'm being careful with this one
it's sitting right on the day low, 0.0489. a clean break under 0.0485 is the only thing i'd short
SL 0.0515
targets 0.0450 and 0.0420
no break, no trade. not financial advice
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #PHA #Futures
$PHA -18%. last time i shorted PHA it stopped me out, so i'm being careful with this one
it's sitting right on the day low, 0.0489. a clean break under 0.0485 is the only thing i'd short
SL 0.0515
targets 0.0450 and 0.0420
no break, no trade. not financial advice
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #PHA #Futures
it's sitting right on the day low, 0.0489. a clean break under 0.0485 is the only thing i'd short
SL 0.0515
targets 0.0450 and 0.0420
no break, no trade. not financial advice
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #PHA #Futures
4
·
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$SOPH -13% and sitting just above its low (0.00143)
volume isn't huge here so i'm keeping size small. setup:
short below 0.001420
SL 0.001500
TP 0.001330 / 0.001250
if it can't break, i don't force it
not financial advice
think this one bounces or flushes?
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #SOPH #Futures
$SOPH -13% and sitting just above its low (0.00143)
volume isn't huge here so i'm keeping size small. setup:
short below 0.001420
SL 0.001500
TP 0.001330 / 0.001250
if it can't break, i don't force it
not financial advice
think this one bounces or flushes?
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #SOPH #Futures
volume isn't huge here so i'm keeping size small. setup:
short below 0.001420
SL 0.001500
TP 0.001330 / 0.001250
if it can't break, i don't force it
not financial advice
think this one bounces or flushes?
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #SOPH #Futures
8
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$ENA -12% and it's one of the bigger names bleeding today (~$300M traded)
low is 0.1837. under 0.1830 i'd short it, stop 0.1930
first target 0.1720, second 0.1630
if 0.183 holds i'll leave it alone and look for a long later instead. not financial advice
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #ENA #Futures
$ENA -12% and it's one of the bigger names bleeding today (~$300M traded)
low is 0.1837. under 0.1830 i'd short it, stop 0.1930
first target 0.1720, second 0.1630
if 0.183 holds i'll leave it alone and look for a long later instead. not financial advice
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #ENA #Futures
low is 0.1837. under 0.1830 i'd short it, stop 0.1930
first target 0.1720, second 0.1630
if 0.183 holds i'll leave it alone and look for a long later instead. not financial advice
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #ENA #Futures
10
·
--
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
🇺🇸 Markets Price Under 10% Odds of a Fed Hike Next Week
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, with the decision on Wednesday
📊 Fed funds futures late Friday showed less than a 10% chance of a hike, per LSEG data
📈 December is the real debate: futures price roughly an 80% chance of a hike then
🔍 In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, and all 100 expect a December hike
⚠️ Hot PPI and oil above $110 argue for tightening, while weak September hiring argues for patience
📅 PCE inflation data lands Oct 29, the day after the meeting
What it means for crypto: a hold is mostly priced in, so Warsh's tone on December may move risk assets more than the decision itself. Bitcoin is near $80.6K, down about 1.2% in 24 hours.
Hold or surprise hike on Wednesday? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #Macro #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
🇺🇸 Markets Price Under 10% Odds of a Fed Hike Next Week
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, with the decision on Wednesday
📊 Fed funds futures late Friday showed less than a 10% chance of a hike, per LSEG data
📈 December is the real debate: futures price roughly an 80% chance of a hike then
🔍 In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, and all 100 expect a December hike
⚠️ Hot PPI and oil above $110 argue for tightening, while weak September hiring argues for patience
📅 PCE inflation data lands Oct 29, the day after the meeting
What it means for crypto: a hold is mostly priced in, so Warsh's tone on December may move risk assets more than the decision itself. Bitcoin is near $80.6K, down about 1.2% in 24 hours.
Hold or surprise hike on Wednesday? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #Macro #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
🇺🇸 Markets Price Under 10% Odds of a Fed Hike Next Week
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, with the decision on Wednesday
📊 Fed funds futures late Friday showed less than a 10% chance of a hike, per LSEG data
📈 December is the real debate: futures price roughly an 80% chance of a hike then
🔍 In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect a hold, and all 100 expect a December hike
⚠️ Hot PPI and oil above $110 argue for tightening, while weak September hiring argues for patience
📅 PCE inflation data lands Oct 29, the day after the meeting
What it means for crypto: a hold is mostly priced in, so Warsh's tone on December may move risk assets more than the decision itself. Bitcoin is near $80.6K, down about 1.2% in 24 hours.
Hold or surprise hike on Wednesday? 👇
$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #Macro #MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
2
·
--
Put it in plain English: here’s today’s most striking contrast in numbers. On one side, $BTC is still slogging away around the $80,000 mark, while retail investors watch the FOMC and barely dare to breathe. On the other, stablecoins led by $USDT have quietly racked up $482 billion—not because their market cap went up, but because people are actually using them to pay.
The data in Allium’s Q3 report is pretty interesting: stablecoin payments totaled $482 billion in the first nine months of this year, up 45% year over year, while total supply rose just 0.4%. The $305 billion supply at the end of September had barely budged. There wasn’t more money, just more transactions: 1.04 billion payments, up 71%, while the average transaction size fell from $544 to $462. Put simply: it used to be whales moving money; now more and more ordinary people are using stablecoins as everyday cash. September alone set a record, with $72 billion in payments.
What really stings is who’s cashing in on this business: Visa already has over 160 stablecoin card programs, with annualized settlement volume topping $20 billion. In Q3 alone, $3.9 billion in stablecoins was spent on cards—about 10 times the figure from the same period last year. Even AI agents are getting in on the action: machine-to-machine payments doubled to 68.3 million transactions in Q3.
So stop staring at the charts and yelling. A falling token price doesn’t mean nobody’s building in this space; the people doing the work have just moved somewhere else to count their money. Just my personal opinion, not financial advice.
Before the FOMC makes its move, which side are you on: still waiting for $BTC to turn things around at $80K, or do you think stablecoin payments are the real growth story this cycle? Pick a side in the comments.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #稳定币 #Visa #CryptoPayments
Put it in plain English: here’s today’s most striking contrast in numbers. On one side, $BTC is still slogging away around the $80,000 mark, while retail investors watch the FOMC and barely dare to breathe. On the other, stablecoins led by $USDT have quietly racked up $482 billion—not because their market cap went up, but because people are actually using them to pay.
The data in Allium’s Q3 report is pretty interesting: stablecoin payments totaled $482 billion in the first nine months of this year, up 45% year over year, while total supply rose just 0.4%. The $305 billion supply at the end of September had barely budged. There wasn’t more money, just more transactions: 1.04 billion payments, up 71%, while the average transaction size fell from $544 to $462. Put simply: it used to be whales moving money; now more and more ordinary people are using stablecoins as everyday cash. September alone set a record, with $72 billion in payments.
What really stings is who’s cashing in on this business: Visa already has over 160 stablecoin card programs, with annualized settlement volume topping $20 billion. In Q3 alone, $3.9 billion in stablecoins was spent on cards—about 10 times the figure from the same period last year. Even AI agents are getting in on the action: machine-to-machine payments doubled to 68.3 million transactions in Q3.
So stop staring at the charts and yelling. A falling token price doesn’t mean nobody’s building in this space; the people doing the work have just moved somewhere else to count their money. Just my personal opinion, not financial advice.
Before the FOMC makes its move, which side are you on: still waiting for $BTC to turn things around at $80K, or do you think stablecoin payments are the real growth story this cycle? Pick a side in the comments.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #稳定币 #Visa #CryptoPayments
The data in Allium’s Q3 report is pretty interesting: stablecoin payments totaled $482 billion in the first nine months of this year, up 45% year over year, while total supply rose just 0.4%. The $305 billion supply at the end of September had barely budged. There wasn’t more money, just more transactions: 1.04 billion payments, up 71%, while the average transaction size fell from $544 to $462. Put simply: it used to be whales moving money; now more and more ordinary people are using stablecoins as everyday cash. September alone set a record, with $72 billion in payments.
What really stings is who’s cashing in on this business: Visa already has over 160 stablecoin card programs, with annualized settlement volume topping $20 billion. In Q3 alone, $3.9 billion in stablecoins was spent on cards—about 10 times the figure from the same period last year. Even AI agents are getting in on the action: machine-to-machine payments doubled to 68.3 million transactions in Q3.
So stop staring at the charts and yelling. A falling token price doesn’t mean nobody’s building in this space; the people doing the work have just moved somewhere else to count their money. Just my personal opinion, not financial advice.
Before the FOMC makes its move, which side are you on: still waiting for $BTC to turn things around at $80K, or do you think stablecoin payments are the real growth story this cycle? Pick a side in the comments.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #稳定币 #Visa #CryptoPayments
风中浪客:
$USDT 供应才涨0.4% 支付量涨45% 这钱是真在来回转 有点东西
2
157
·
--
Want to understand what the order book shows on an exchange?
The order book is a list of orders: buy orders (bids) appear on the left, and sell orders (asks) appear on the right. Each level shows how much another user is willing to pay or receive, and at what price. For example, if you see several $BTC bids at $80,390, it means many people want to buy at that price; if the asks are at $80,420, there are sell offers at that level.
Do you have any questions about this?
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin
Want to understand what the order book shows on an exchange?
The order book is a list of orders: buy orders (bids) appear on the left, and sell orders (asks) appear on the right. Each level shows how much another user is willing to pay or receive, and at what price. For example, if you see several $BTC bids at $80,390, it means many people want to buy at that price; if the asks are at $80,420, there are sell offers at that level.
Do you have any questions about this?
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin
The order book is a list of orders: buy orders (bids) appear on the left, and sell orders (asks) appear on the right. Each level shows how much another user is willing to pay or receive, and at what price. For example, if you see several $BTC bids at $80,390, it means many people want to buy at that price; if the asks are at $80,420, there are sell offers at that level.
Do you have any questions about this?
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin
98
·
--
In plain English: $BTC barely moved this weekend. The real casualties were leveraged traders.
First, three numbers: More than $810 million in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, including $689 million in long positions, wiping out over 200,000 traders. $BTC briefly fell to $79,146 on Saturday, then recovered to above $80,000. It’s now around $80,250—meaning the price barely budged, but leverage got wiped out.
Break it down and it makes sense: Weekend liquidity is thin to begin with. Once the price broke below $80,000, forced liquidations became sell orders, pushing prices lower and amplifying the cycle. It wasn’t news that wiped traders out—it was a cascade caused by the leverage structure itself.
Now look at the money flows: Spot $BTC ETFs saw $635.6 million in outflows on October 22, followed by another $137.9 million on the 23rd. Money was flowing out of ETFs while leveraged money was rushing in. Those forces were pulling in opposite directions, leaving anyone caught in the middle in a tough spot. $ETH also fell back to around $2,340.
The takeaway is simple: Before the FOMC shows its hand on October 27–28, leverage—not your guess about the direction—may clear out your position first. Futures markets are pricing in roughly a 90% chance of no change, while Brent crude remains above $117. Personal opinion, for reference only.
Before the FOMC meeting, will $BTC reclaim the $81,700 average first, or dip below $79,146 again? Pick a side in the comments.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #FOMC #Liquidations
In plain English: $BTC barely moved this weekend. The real casualties were leveraged traders.
First, three numbers: More than $810 million in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, including $689 million in long positions, wiping out over 200,000 traders. $BTC briefly fell to $79,146 on Saturday, then recovered to above $80,000. It’s now around $80,250—meaning the price barely budged, but leverage got wiped out.
Break it down and it makes sense: Weekend liquidity is thin to begin with. Once the price broke below $80,000, forced liquidations became sell orders, pushing prices lower and amplifying the cycle. It wasn’t news that wiped traders out—it was a cascade caused by the leverage structure itself.
Now look at the money flows: Spot $BTC ETFs saw $635.6 million in outflows on October 22, followed by another $137.9 million on the 23rd. Money was flowing out of ETFs while leveraged money was rushing in. Those forces were pulling in opposite directions, leaving anyone caught in the middle in a tough spot. $ETH also fell back to around $2,340.
The takeaway is simple: Before the FOMC shows its hand on October 27–28, leverage—not your guess about the direction—may clear out your position first. Futures markets are pricing in roughly a 90% chance of no change, while Brent crude remains above $117. Personal opinion, for reference only.
Before the FOMC meeting, will $BTC reclaim the $81,700 average first, or dip below $79,146 again? Pick a side in the comments.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #FOMC #Liquidations
First, three numbers: More than $810 million in positions were liquidated across the crypto market in 24 hours, including $689 million in long positions, wiping out over 200,000 traders. $BTC briefly fell to $79,146 on Saturday, then recovered to above $80,000. It’s now around $80,250—meaning the price barely budged, but leverage got wiped out.
Break it down and it makes sense: Weekend liquidity is thin to begin with. Once the price broke below $80,000, forced liquidations became sell orders, pushing prices lower and amplifying the cycle. It wasn’t news that wiped traders out—it was a cascade caused by the leverage structure itself.
Now look at the money flows: Spot $BTC ETFs saw $635.6 million in outflows on October 22, followed by another $137.9 million on the 23rd. Money was flowing out of ETFs while leveraged money was rushing in. Those forces were pulling in opposite directions, leaving anyone caught in the middle in a tough spot. $ETH also fell back to around $2,340.
The takeaway is simple: Before the FOMC shows its hand on October 27–28, leverage—not your guess about the direction—may clear out your position first. Futures markets are pricing in roughly a 90% chance of no change, while Brent crude remains above $117. Personal opinion, for reference only.
Before the FOMC meeting, will $BTC reclaim the $81,700 average first, or dip below $79,146 again? Pick a side in the comments.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #FOMC #Liquidations
29
·
--
The weekend was supposed to be for lying low and sleeping in, but news of an evacuation of nationals from the Middle East sent Bitcoin crashing below $80,000. There’s never really a weekend for crypto bagholders.
Here’s how the overnight drama unfolded: $BTC was still drifting around $81,000 during the day when reports came out that U.S. diplomatic staff were urgently evacuating from the Middle East and that Iran was escalating its threats. The market slid straight down, briefly wicking to around $79,240 before barely recovering to close at $80,782. $ETH fared even worse, closing at $2,356 after dipping as low as $2,289.
But the details are interesting: ETFs have seen over $1 billion in outflows so far in October, while 169,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges in a single day—the biggest daily net outflow in four months. Selling on one hand, withdrawing on the other. I know this script: some people are heading for the exit, while others are quietly moving coins into cold wallets.
The hot topic on Square is still what the Fed will do next week. The market puts the odds of a rate hike at just 10%, basically assuming there won’t be one. So, sure, the news sent the market tumbling, but the real cards haven’t been played yet. Weekend liquidity is thin—don’t chase a news-driven market.
Just my personal opinion, not financial advice. Will $BTC reclaim $81,000 today, or test $79,240 again? Pick a side in the comments.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
The weekend was supposed to be for lying low and sleeping in, but news of an evacuation of nationals from the Middle East sent Bitcoin crashing below $80,000. There’s never really a weekend for crypto bagholders.
Here’s how the overnight drama unfolded: $BTC was still drifting around $81,000 during the day when reports came out that U.S. diplomatic staff were urgently evacuating from the Middle East and that Iran was escalating its threats. The market slid straight down, briefly wicking to around $79,240 before barely recovering to close at $80,782. $ETH fared even worse, closing at $2,356 after dipping as low as $2,289.
But the details are interesting: ETFs have seen over $1 billion in outflows so far in October, while 169,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges in a single day—the biggest daily net outflow in four months. Selling on one hand, withdrawing on the other. I know this script: some people are heading for the exit, while others are quietly moving coins into cold wallets.
The hot topic on Square is still what the Fed will do next week. The market puts the odds of a rate hike at just 10%, basically assuming there won’t be one. So, sure, the news sent the market tumbling, but the real cards haven’t been played yet. Weekend liquidity is thin—don’t chase a news-driven market.
Just my personal opinion, not financial advice. Will $BTC reclaim $81,000 today, or test $79,240 again? Pick a side in the comments.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
Here’s how the overnight drama unfolded: $BTC was still drifting around $81,000 during the day when reports came out that U.S. diplomatic staff were urgently evacuating from the Middle East and that Iran was escalating its threats. The market slid straight down, briefly wicking to around $79,240 before barely recovering to close at $80,782. $ETH fared even worse, closing at $2,356 after dipping as low as $2,289.
But the details are interesting: ETFs have seen over $1 billion in outflows so far in October, while 169,000 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges in a single day—the biggest daily net outflow in four months. Selling on one hand, withdrawing on the other. I know this script: some people are heading for the exit, while others are quietly moving coins into cold wallets.
The hot topic on Square is still what the Fed will do next week. The market puts the odds of a rate hike at just 10%, basically assuming there won’t be one. So, sure, the news sent the market tumbling, but the real cards haven’t been played yet. Weekend liquidity is thin—don’t chase a news-driven market.
Just my personal opinion, not financial advice. Will $BTC reclaim $81,000 today, or test $79,240 again? Pick a side in the comments.
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
236
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$BTC This $80K wall got kicked through by geopolitical news on Saturday—then climbed back up! 😤
In plain English: After people were evacuated from the Middle East, Bitcoin got spooked below $80K on Saturday, dropping to $79,700—its weakest day in over a month. ETH, XRP, and SOL followed, each falling 3–4%. On Sunday, BTC clawed its way back to around $80,900. This isn’t technical analysis—it’s the news whipping the market around!
Three things to break down: First, $80K isn’t just an arbitrary line. Institutions’ average cost is around $80K, so falling below it would leave institutions collectively underwater and crack confidence. Second, if the weekly close can’t get back above $83,000, the bearish outlook for the remaining two months of 2026 gets even stronger, with $77,876 as the next level to watch below. Third, weekend trading volume is thin to begin with, and fake breakouts are everywhere. Don’t rush to call a reversal just because today’s candle reclaimed $80K.
I’ve said it before: when a geopolitical black swan hits, don’t fight the market. The real cards get dealt next week: FOMC on Tuesday and Wednesday, then CPI on Thursday. If $80K holds, expect a choppy market; if it doesn’t, don’t stubbornly hold on. Just my opinion, not financial advice.
Will BTC reclaim $83,000 on Monday and prove the bears wrong, or test below $79,700 again? Pick a side in the comments!
$BTC $ETH
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin
$BTC This $80K wall got kicked through by geopolitical news on Saturday—then climbed back up! 😤
In plain English: After people were evacuated from the Middle East, Bitcoin got spooked below $80K on Saturday, dropping to $79,700—its weakest day in over a month. ETH, XRP, and SOL followed, each falling 3–4%. On Sunday, BTC clawed its way back to around $80,900. This isn’t technical analysis—it’s the news whipping the market around!
Three things to break down: First, $80K isn’t just an arbitrary line. Institutions’ average cost is around $80K, so falling below it would leave institutions collectively underwater and crack confidence. Second, if the weekly close can’t get back above $83,000, the bearish outlook for the remaining two months of 2026 gets even stronger, with $77,876 as the next level to watch below. Third, weekend trading volume is thin to begin with, and fake breakouts are everywhere. Don’t rush to call a reversal just because today’s candle reclaimed $80K.
I’ve said it before: when a geopolitical black swan hits, don’t fight the market. The real cards get dealt next week: FOMC on Tuesday and Wednesday, then CPI on Thursday. If $80K holds, expect a choppy market; if it doesn’t, don’t stubbornly hold on. Just my opinion, not financial advice.
Will BTC reclaim $83,000 on Monday and prove the bears wrong, or test below $79,700 again? Pick a side in the comments!
$BTC $ETH
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin
In plain English: After people were evacuated from the Middle East, Bitcoin got spooked below $80K on Saturday, dropping to $79,700—its weakest day in over a month. ETH, XRP, and SOL followed, each falling 3–4%. On Sunday, BTC clawed its way back to around $80,900. This isn’t technical analysis—it’s the news whipping the market around!
Three things to break down: First, $80K isn’t just an arbitrary line. Institutions’ average cost is around $80K, so falling below it would leave institutions collectively underwater and crack confidence. Second, if the weekly close can’t get back above $83,000, the bearish outlook for the remaining two months of 2026 gets even stronger, with $77,876 as the next level to watch below. Third, weekend trading volume is thin to begin with, and fake breakouts are everywhere. Don’t rush to call a reversal just because today’s candle reclaimed $80K.
I’ve said it before: when a geopolitical black swan hits, don’t fight the market. The real cards get dealt next week: FOMC on Tuesday and Wednesday, then CPI on Thursday. If $80K holds, expect a choppy market; if it doesn’t, don’t stubbornly hold on. Just my opinion, not financial advice.
Will BTC reclaim $83,000 on Monday and prove the bears wrong, or test below $79,700 again? Pick a side in the comments!
$BTC $ETH
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek #Bitcoin
351
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Recent market analysis shows that the likelihood of a Fed rate hike has fallen sharply. Most economic data has been weak, inflation has cooled, and dovish signals have become more frequent—for example, Yellen recently emphasized that the tightening cycle may be nearing its end. I personally believe there is a 90% chance the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at next week’s meeting. Market sentiment is currently cautious, the U.S. dollar index is under pressure, and Treasury yields reflect similar expectations. This shift is especially significant for crypto markets, as a stable Fed policy environment is more conducive to restoring market confidence.#MarketsPrice $BTC
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
Recent market analysis shows that the likelihood of a Fed rate hike has fallen sharply. Most economic data has been weak, inflation has cooled, and dovish signals have become more frequent—for example, Yellen recently emphasized that the tightening cycle may be nearing its end. I personally believe there is a 90% chance the federal funds rate will remain unchanged at next week’s meeting. Market sentiment is currently cautious, the U.S. dollar index is under pressure, and Treasury yields reflect similar expectations. This shift is especially significant for crypto markets, as a stable Fed policy environment is more conducive to restoring market confidence.#MarketsPrice $BTC
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
#MarketsPriceJust10%ChanceOfFedHikeNextWeek
54
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