Steven_Research
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Long-term investor
Founder SR INVEST, holder $BNB
Top 14 independent Researcher at @Binance The Blockchain 100 | 2025
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Thank you @Binance Square Official and the title independent Researcher 2025
Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng
Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7
It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!
Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!
Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍
Happy new year 2026!
Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng
Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7
It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!
Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!
Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍
Happy new year 2026!
New year, new journey start
No emotions, no bias, only rational analysis and principles, perseverance, firmness
I bought the 1st order $BTC at the price of 67.9k
Next week's buy coming…
Happy New Year to everyone 🫶
No emotions, no bias, only rational analysis and principles, perseverance, firmness
I bought the 1st order $BTC at the price of 67.9k
Next week's buy coming…
Happy New Year to everyone 🫶
The interbank interest rate in Vietnam (mainly overnight term) surged strongly at the beginning of February 2026 due to seasonal liquidity pressure before returning to normal levels.
- It reached 21% at one point (the highest in history, on February 3, 2026), previously climbing to 17% (on February 3-4).
- It then decreased sharply thanks to the SBV injecting record liquidity: down to 8.5% (on February 5-10), then plummeting to 4.2% (on February 11), continuing down to 3.7% (on February 12) and maintaining low around 3.7-4% recently (before Tet).
- Annual comparison: This fluctuation is unusual in terms of extreme levels (the peak of 21% is a record high, far exceeding previous years like 2024-2025 which only increased to 8-9% near Tet, or 2023-2022 around 2-8%).
=> The main cause is the demand for cash during Tet combined with a large credit-deposit spread and a new tax factor, but it remains a temporary seasonal phenomenon, cooling quickly after the SBV's intervention.
- It reached 21% at one point (the highest in history, on February 3, 2026), previously climbing to 17% (on February 3-4).
- It then decreased sharply thanks to the SBV injecting record liquidity: down to 8.5% (on February 5-10), then plummeting to 4.2% (on February 11), continuing down to 3.7% (on February 12) and maintaining low around 3.7-4% recently (before Tet).
- Annual comparison: This fluctuation is unusual in terms of extreme levels (the peak of 21% is a record high, far exceeding previous years like 2024-2025 which only increased to 8-9% near Tet, or 2023-2022 around 2-8%).
=> The main cause is the demand for cash during Tet combined with a large credit-deposit spread and a new tax factor, but it remains a temporary seasonal phenomenon, cooling quickly after the SBV's intervention.
WHICH MAJOR DATS ARE INCURRING HEAVY LOSSES?
This cycle has become one of the most disappointing cycles of all time, even institutional investors are now facing significant losses after buying at the peak of many coins during the DATs hype and the broader market excitement.
*Below is the performance list of DATs (based on average purchase price change and actual PnL, source from CryptoRank as of 11/02/2026; some calculations use approximate data):
- $BTC : Largest DAT buyer - Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy); Loss: -12%; PnL: -$6B
- $ETH : Largest DAT buyer - BitMine; Loss: -49%; PnL: -$8B
- $XRP : Largest DAT buyer - Evernorth Holdings; Loss: -43%; PnL: -$491M
- SOL: Largest DAT buyer - Forward Industries; Loss: -65%; PnL: -$1B
- TON: Largest DAT buyer - TON Strategy; Loss: -60%; PnL: -$431M
- BNB: Largest DAT buyer - BNB Network Company; Loss: -32%; PnL: -$138M
- SUI: Largest DAT buyer - Sui Group Holdings; Loss: -73%; PnL: -$279M
- WLFI: Largest DAT buyer - ALT5 Sigma; Loss: -50%; PnL: -$802M
- DOGE: Largest DAT buyer - Thumzup Media Corporation; Loss: -67%; PnL: -$1.35M
- HYPE: Largest DAT buyer - Hyperliquid Strategies; Loss: -37%; PnL: -$216M
This cycle has become one of the most disappointing cycles of all time, even institutional investors are now facing significant losses after buying at the peak of many coins during the DATs hype and the broader market excitement.
*Below is the performance list of DATs (based on average purchase price change and actual PnL, source from CryptoRank as of 11/02/2026; some calculations use approximate data):
- $BTC : Largest DAT buyer - Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy); Loss: -12%; PnL: -$6B
- $ETH : Largest DAT buyer - BitMine; Loss: -49%; PnL: -$8B
- $XRP : Largest DAT buyer - Evernorth Holdings; Loss: -43%; PnL: -$491M
- SOL: Largest DAT buyer - Forward Industries; Loss: -65%; PnL: -$1B
- TON: Largest DAT buyer - TON Strategy; Loss: -60%; PnL: -$431M
- BNB: Largest DAT buyer - BNB Network Company; Loss: -32%; PnL: -$138M
- SUI: Largest DAT buyer - Sui Group Holdings; Loss: -73%; PnL: -$279M
- WLFI: Largest DAT buyer - ALT5 Sigma; Loss: -50%; PnL: -$802M
- DOGE: Largest DAT buyer - Thumzup Media Corporation; Loss: -67%; PnL: -$1.35M
- HYPE: Largest DAT buyer - Hyperliquid Strategies; Loss: -37%; PnL: -$216M
So the SAFU fund of Binance has completely purchased 1 billion USD $BTC according to its plan.
Initially, it was planned to buy within 30 days, but now, in less than 15 days, all has been purchased. The faster-than-expected buying may be because they see this price as reasonable?
- Round 1: 1.315 BTC ≈ $100 million → price ~ $76.045/BTC
- Round 2: 1.315 BTC ≈ $100 million → price ~ $76.045/BTC
- Round 3: 3.600 BTC ≈ $250 million → price ~ $69.444/BTC
- Round 4: 4.225 BTC ≈ $300 million → price ~ $71.006/BTC
- Round 5 (final): 4.545 BTC ≈ $304.58 million → price ~ $66.006/BTC
= Total: 15.000 BTC, total cost ~ $1 billion USD (there may be slight discrepancies due to rounding or fees, but it's close to 1 billion).
*This fund can continue to buy if the price $BTC decreases and the fund value drops to 800 million USD.
Initially, it was planned to buy within 30 days, but now, in less than 15 days, all has been purchased. The faster-than-expected buying may be because they see this price as reasonable?
- Round 1: 1.315 BTC ≈ $100 million → price ~ $76.045/BTC
- Round 2: 1.315 BTC ≈ $100 million → price ~ $76.045/BTC
- Round 3: 3.600 BTC ≈ $250 million → price ~ $69.444/BTC
- Round 4: 4.225 BTC ≈ $300 million → price ~ $71.006/BTC
- Round 5 (final): 4.545 BTC ≈ $304.58 million → price ~ $66.006/BTC
= Total: 15.000 BTC, total cost ~ $1 billion USD (there may be slight discrepancies due to rounding or fees, but it's close to 1 billion).
*This fund can continue to buy if the price $BTC decreases and the fund value drops to 800 million USD.
Steven Strategy
I am preparing to return to accumulate $BTC , with a weekly accumulation strategy
My goal is to accumulate until the end of this year, with an accumulation volume x2 corresponding to each price drop zone of Bitcoin
*Example:
- Week 1 BTC is priced at 6x I buy 1u
- Week 2 $BTC at 5x I will buy 2u
- Week 3 BTC price is 4x I buy 4u
- Week xxx BTC price is 3x I buy 8u
=> With the goal of establishing a personal Bitcoin reserve fund, size about 5-10% of the total portfolio
(Last season 2022-2025 I allocated 10% of the total portfolio to crypto, then sold everything back in November 2025 I posted, now it's time for a new plan)
- Most of the time I will still focus on Business and Real Estate, a bit of gold and silver, stocks
- This year will still be a challenging year for me, continuing to strive forward!
Let's accompany each other, folks!
🤝
I am preparing to return to accumulate $BTC , with a weekly accumulation strategy
My goal is to accumulate until the end of this year, with an accumulation volume x2 corresponding to each price drop zone of Bitcoin
*Example:
- Week 1 BTC is priced at 6x I buy 1u
- Week 2 $BTC at 5x I will buy 2u
- Week 3 BTC price is 4x I buy 4u
- Week xxx BTC price is 3x I buy 8u
=> With the goal of establishing a personal Bitcoin reserve fund, size about 5-10% of the total portfolio
(Last season 2022-2025 I allocated 10% of the total portfolio to crypto, then sold everything back in November 2025 I posted, now it's time for a new plan)
- Most of the time I will still focus on Business and Real Estate, a bit of gold and silver, stocks
- This year will still be a challenging year for me, continuing to strive forward!
Let's accompany each other, folks!
🤝
Hashrate of Bitcoin declines by 20% - Is it related to the price $BTC?
Hashrate represents the mining difficulty of Bitcoin, which has just experienced the largest drop since 2021, causing weaker miners to leave. So what is the cause of this and is it correlated with the price
?
1. Analyzing the causes of Hashrate decline
- The price of BTC has dropped significantly; when the price decreases, the revenue of miners (measured in USD) is no longer enough to cover electricity and operational costs, forcing small miners or those using older machines to disconnect.
?
1. Analyzing the causes of Hashrate decline
- The price of BTC has dropped significantly; when the price decreases, the revenue of miners (measured in USD) is no longer enough to cover electricity and operational costs, forcing small miners or those using older machines to disconnect.
THE DIFFICULT POSITION OF ETHEREUM
- After intense competition and aggressive expansion efforts from numerous large ecosystems, Ethereum's DeFi market share $ETH remains in a dominant position with 57.97% of the total value locked (TVL) across the industry. Although this figure has slightly fluctuated compared to the 54.21% in February 2025, Ethereum continues to demonstrate resilience and an ability to absorb capital more effectively than its remaining competitors.
- The Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for late 2025, has addressed the urgent issue of data availability through PeerDAS, helping to achieve a peak daily transaction volume of nearly 3 million by mid-January 2026. The number of active addresses has maintained steady growth, officially surpassing 1 million.
- Over 65% of real-world assets (RWA) are tokenized on Ethereum as their storage and trading platform, with the TVL for the RWA sector reaching $19.5 billion.
- The market capitalization of stablecoins on the network remains stable at $160 billion. Stablecoin trading volume reached $1 trillion by the end of 2025.
- Although the Ethereum Mainnet is increasingly becoming a haven for large capital (Whales) and institutional assets, small retail transactions and high-frequency activities are shifting towards Layer 2 or competitors like Solana (currently holding about 6.88% of the TVL market share), creating a polarization among users who fit into each chain.
=> Ethereum remains the largest funnel capturing the value of the entire DeFi sector, but its market share has also become very diverse.
- After intense competition and aggressive expansion efforts from numerous large ecosystems, Ethereum's DeFi market share $ETH remains in a dominant position with 57.97% of the total value locked (TVL) across the industry. Although this figure has slightly fluctuated compared to the 54.21% in February 2025, Ethereum continues to demonstrate resilience and an ability to absorb capital more effectively than its remaining competitors.
- The Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for late 2025, has addressed the urgent issue of data availability through PeerDAS, helping to achieve a peak daily transaction volume of nearly 3 million by mid-January 2026. The number of active addresses has maintained steady growth, officially surpassing 1 million.
- Over 65% of real-world assets (RWA) are tokenized on Ethereum as their storage and trading platform, with the TVL for the RWA sector reaching $19.5 billion.
- The market capitalization of stablecoins on the network remains stable at $160 billion. Stablecoin trading volume reached $1 trillion by the end of 2025.
- Although the Ethereum Mainnet is increasingly becoming a haven for large capital (Whales) and institutional assets, small retail transactions and high-frequency activities are shifting towards Layer 2 or competitors like Solana (currently holding about 6.88% of the TVL market share), creating a polarization among users who fit into each chain.
=> Ethereum remains the largest funnel capturing the value of the entire DeFi sector, but its market share has also become very diverse.
The Shift of Yields and Pressure on the USD - The Relation to Bitcoin
- The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond approaches 4.19%. Meanwhile, the yield on Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) starts to cool down after reaching historical highs. This tug-of-war reflects the conflict between extreme policy measures and the demand for foreign financing.
- The DXY index can no longer maintain its monopoly position. After dropping 9.2% in 2025, the index continues to lose another 3.1% in the first month of 2026. In contrast, currencies like the Euro and Japanese Yen are witnessing a strong recovery thanks to the Fed's caution and uncertainties from U.S. trade policy (tariffs).
- As the yield spread narrows, the profit from borrowing Yen to invest in USD assets disappears. This forces investors to unwind positions, pulling liquidity from global risk assets.
- The history of the years 2011, 2014, and 2021 shows that whenever this yield differential sharply decreases and breaches the 1.0% threshold, the price of Bitcoin $BTC often faces significant adjustment pressure.
=> Currently, short positions in Yen are still significantly lower than the peak levels of 2024. This implies that the amount of "dry wood" to create a liquidity fire (Yen Panic) like the summer of 2024 is limited.
=> Although $BTC is facing resistance from the narrowing Spread, the current market structure is more mature compared to previous cycles. The downward pressure is real, but the intensity may be alleviated by institutional capital flows and the shifting confidence as the USD weakens.
- The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond approaches 4.19%. Meanwhile, the yield on Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) starts to cool down after reaching historical highs. This tug-of-war reflects the conflict between extreme policy measures and the demand for foreign financing.
- The DXY index can no longer maintain its monopoly position. After dropping 9.2% in 2025, the index continues to lose another 3.1% in the first month of 2026. In contrast, currencies like the Euro and Japanese Yen are witnessing a strong recovery thanks to the Fed's caution and uncertainties from U.S. trade policy (tariffs).
- As the yield spread narrows, the profit from borrowing Yen to invest in USD assets disappears. This forces investors to unwind positions, pulling liquidity from global risk assets.
- The history of the years 2011, 2014, and 2021 shows that whenever this yield differential sharply decreases and breaches the 1.0% threshold, the price of Bitcoin $BTC often faces significant adjustment pressure.
=> Currently, short positions in Yen are still significantly lower than the peak levels of 2024. This implies that the amount of "dry wood" to create a liquidity fire (Yen Panic) like the summer of 2024 is limited.
=> Although $BTC is facing resistance from the narrowing Spread, the current market structure is more mature compared to previous cycles. The downward pressure is real, but the intensity may be alleviated by institutional capital flows and the shifting confidence as the USD weakens.
HYPERLIQUID - TOKEN UNDER UNLOCK PRESSURE?
Owning the top perp volume in the market, in 2025 Coinbase recorded 1.4 trillion USD, while Hyperliquid reached 2.6 trillion USD, Hyperliquid nearly doubled CEX like cb
The token buyback mechanism is 97% of revenue sent to the Assistance Fund wallet, and this fund is recognized as a permanently burned address (removed from circulation)
=> Just these 2 factors alone make
arguably become the token with the strongest fundamentals in the market by 2025 along with impressive growth
The token buyback mechanism is 97% of revenue sent to the Assistance Fund wallet, and this fund is recognized as a permanently burned address (removed from circulation)
=> Just these 2 factors alone make
arguably become the token with the strongest fundamentals in the market by 2025 along with impressive growth
Analysis of Bitcoin Cost Structure - The Shift Between Holder Groups $BTC
1. Pressure from short-term investor (STH) groups
- Currently, the market has pushed the entire STH group into a position of losses. When the market operates below the average cost of the group holding for less than 155 days, panic selling pressure often peaks.
- With an average purchase price of $BTC around $92K, all STH are in a position where they have to DCA to lower their purchase price or cut losses.
- Currently, the market has pushed the entire STH group into a position of losses. When the market operates below the average cost of the group holding for less than 155 days, panic selling pressure often peaks.
- With an average purchase price of $BTC around $92K, all STH are in a position where they have to DCA to lower their purchase price or cut losses.
CRYPTO ACCUMULATION STRATEGY
There is a trading strategy that I find psychologically stable and effective, I often jokingly call it "the gold shop trader" very effective
Metaphorically likened to the image of the owner of a gold and silver shop, accumulating gold and buying/selling with a clear principle. And you can see they are getting richer?
Accumulation trading strategy
1, Principle
- You see the shop owner always has inventory and cash
- Business activities of buying and selling
Metaphorically likened to the image of the owner of a gold and silver shop, accumulating gold and buying/selling with a clear principle. And you can see they are getting richer?
Accumulation trading strategy
1, Principle
- You see the shop owner always has inventory and cash
- Business activities of buying and selling
The Binance SAFU fund just purchased an additional 3.663 $BTC , corresponding to a value of 233.05 million USD
In total, after 3 rounds of purchases, they have bought 6.230 $BTC - with the current market value approximately 403.21 million USD
The principal amount spent is currently around 434 million USD, part of the planned 1 billion USD fund
In total, after 3 rounds of purchases, they have bought 6.230 $BTC - with the current market value approximately 403.21 million USD
The principal amount spent is currently around 434 million USD, part of the planned 1 billion USD fund
Trend Research has been partially liquidated in the past few days
If $ETH falls to the 1.5K range, they will liquidate about $800M of theirs
Last night, there was a time when ETH fell to the 1.7K range
If $ETH falls to the 1.5K range, they will liquidate about $800M of theirs
Last night, there was a time when ETH fell to the 1.7K range
An unexpected gift from @Binance Square Official for quality content
Thank you to the bosses and the team for trusting and giving 1 $BNB for my content @Yi He CYZhang01. Being recognized for quality value is the most precious reward for a content writer.
This is not just a number, but a huge motivation for me to continue sharing even higher quality content with the community.
Thank you everyone for always supporting me! 🫶
Thank you to the bosses and the team for trusting and giving 1 $BNB for my content @Yi He CYZhang01. Being recognized for quality value is the most precious reward for a content writer.
This is not just a number, but a huge motivation for me to continue sharing even higher quality content with the community.
Thank you everyone for always supporting me! 🫶
Trump's World Liberty ($WLFI ) just sold 73 $WBTC (5.04 million USD) at a price of 69,000 USD.
The star previously said hodl 🫠
The star previously said hodl 🫠
VITALIK AND ENTITIES CONTINUE TO SELL $ETH - BUT STILL NOT DONE?
Data records the combination between forced liquidation events from whales and Vitalik's planned divestment could it be a coincidence at this time?
VITALIK AND ENTITIES CONTINUE TO SELL $ETH - BUT STILL NOT DONE?
1. Vitalik Buterin: Divestment for special projects
- In the last 3 days (03/02 - 05/02): Vitalik sold about 2,779 - 2,961 $ETH , bringing in 6.2 - 6.6 million USD (average price 2,228 - 2,238 USD/ETH). Converted into stablecoins like USDC, GHO, EUROC, and LUSD
VITALIK AND ENTITIES CONTINUE TO SELL $ETH - BUT STILL NOT DONE?
1. Vitalik Buterin: Divestment for special projects
- In the last 3 days (03/02 - 05/02): Vitalik sold about 2,779 - 2,961 $ETH , bringing in 6.2 - 6.6 million USD (average price 2,228 - 2,238 USD/ETH). Converted into stablecoins like USDC, GHO, EUROC, and LUSD
BITCOIN DROPS TO IMPORTANT LEVELS - SELLING PRESSURE DOMINATES
On-chain $BTC currently confirming the control rights belong to the bears, with a significant weakening of demand at important price levels
1. Breaking psychological and technical support levels
*The True Market Mean index has been broken. Trading prices below this level has two consequences:
- Losing the benchmark of confidence: Most short-term traders are currently in a loss position, increasing sell-off pressure to cut losses instead of accumulating more.
1. Breaking psychological and technical support levels
*The True Market Mean index has been broken. Trading prices below this level has two consequences:
- Losing the benchmark of confidence: Most short-term traders are currently in a loss position, increasing sell-off pressure to cut losses instead of accumulating more.
The SAFU fund of Binance has purchased an additional 1,315 USD $BTC , worth 100.42 million USD.
In total, they have bought 2,630 BTC, worth 201.12 million dollars, in the past 2 days.
In total, they have bought 2,630 BTC, worth 201.12 million dollars, in the past 2 days.
ETHREUM L1 DOES NOT NEED L2s?
I analyzed this three years ago, at that time the market still had great faith in L2s, currently out of 135 existing Layer 2s, 109 L2s have less than 1 user operation per second.
- Recently, Vitalik outlined a shift in focus from 'L2 as a salvation for L1' to 'L1 self-reinforcement and L2 specialization', a significant filtering for current L2s and opening the way for
L1.
1. The obsolescence of the old 'Rollup-centric vision' of L2s.
- Recently, Vitalik outlined a shift in focus from 'L2 as a salvation for L1' to 'L1 self-reinforcement and L2 specialization', a significant filtering for current L2s and opening the way for
L1.
1. The obsolescence of the old 'Rollup-centric vision' of L2s.
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