GLASSNODE: ETF OUTFLOWS, LEVERAGE HASN’T COOLED
Glassnode’s Market Pulse report for week 42, published on October 12 with data through October 11, recorded a roughly 3% decline in $BTC over the week. Selling pressure increased in ETFs and the derivatives market, while Open Interest remained virtually unchanged.
1. ETFs reverse course and see outflows
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $701.6 million, compared with net inflows of $117.9 million the previous week. Trading volume still rose from $11 billion to $11.3 billion, but higher volume does not necessarily mean more buying capital is coming in. Net flows show that the ETF channel shifted from providing support to adding pressure this week.
2. Sellers become more aggressive, while derivatives positions remain intact
- Perpetual CVD shifted from positive $49.5 million to negative $681.8 million, indicating that aggressive selling exceeded aggressive buying. Over the same period, futures Open Interest held around $36.7 billion, while funding paid by longs fell by about 25.8%. Prices corrected, but open positions have not declined significantly, so there is not yet enough evidence to say the market has shed its leverage.
3. Realized capitalization continues to rise, and most of the supply remains in profit
- The monthly change in Realized Cap increased from 1.1% to 1.2%, while the share of supply in profit fell from 74.5% to 71.4%. The data shows that the on-chain cost basis continues to rise, but most of the supply remains profitable and could add further profit-taking pressure.
=> I think this pullback has not yet been accompanied by a clear reduction in derivatives positions.
=> Personally, I lean toward the scenario where $BTC needs to re-accumulate, or could correct to retest lower price levels during this period.
- What do you all think?
Glassnode’s Market Pulse report for week 42, published on October 12 with data through October 11, recorded a roughly 3% decline in $BTC over the week. Selling pressure increased in ETFs and the derivatives market, while Open Interest remained virtually unchanged.
1. ETFs reverse course and see outflows
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $701.6 million, compared with net inflows of $117.9 million the previous week. Trading volume still rose from $11 billion to $11.3 billion, but higher volume does not necessarily mean more buying capital is coming in. Net flows show that the ETF channel shifted from providing support to adding pressure this week.
2. Sellers become more aggressive, while derivatives positions remain intact
- Perpetual CVD shifted from positive $49.5 million to negative $681.8 million, indicating that aggressive selling exceeded aggressive buying. Over the same period, futures Open Interest held around $36.7 billion, while funding paid by longs fell by about 25.8%. Prices corrected, but open positions have not declined significantly, so there is not yet enough evidence to say the market has shed its leverage.
3. Realized capitalization continues to rise, and most of the supply remains in profit
- The monthly change in Realized Cap increased from 1.1% to 1.2%, while the share of supply in profit fell from 74.5% to 71.4%. The data shows that the on-chain cost basis continues to rise, but most of the supply remains profitable and could add further profit-taking pressure.
=> I think this pullback has not yet been accompanied by a clear reduction in derivatives positions.
=> Personally, I lean toward the scenario where $BTC needs to re-accumulate, or could correct to retest lower price levels during this period.
- What do you all think?