$BTC It has risen by about 35% from the August low, while Open Interest has fallen by nearly 20%. After the rally to 87.4k, Glassnode and CryptoQuant data show that profit-taking increased sharply, and the price returned to test the supply concentration zone of long-term holders at 84–85k.
1. The 84–85k cost basis zone of long-term holders
- Glassnode’s chart shows that 84–85k is the price zone where Long-Term Holders’ cost basis is concentrated the most on the chart ($BTC ). This is the distribution of on-chain cost basis, not the volume of sell orders waiting on the exchange. However, when the price returns near the cost basis, it may create conditions for some holders to exit their positions. BTC has already moved above this zone and then pulled back, so it’s necessary to monitor the ability to keep the price above after breaking through, rather than looking at only one dip through.
- At the moment, the True Market Mean is 77.2k and the Mean MVRV Price is 96.9k. The price is trading between these two levels after recovering from below the True Market Mean zone. These are on-chain model references; they need to be combined with supply-demand developments to assess, and it should not be assumed that 96.9k will be the target of the upswing.
2. Price rises while Open Interest falls
- BTC is up about 35% from the August low, but OI measured in BTC has fallen by nearly 20%, to the lowest level since March.
=> A rally that doesn’t come with OI expansion may make the market less sensitive to a chain of liquidations. However, OI falling could be due to closing both long and short positions, which is not enough to confirm that spot buying demand is strengthening. To assess the durability of the rally, you still need to cross-check with buying demand and the amount of supply being brought to the market.
3. Increasing profit-realization pressure
- CryptoQuant reports that the unrealized profit margin of the group holding BTC for 1–3 months is around 33%, the highest since 12/2024, as the price rose to 87.4k. This profit belongs to a specific group of holders and does not represent all BTC holders. After a fast recovery, the larger profit also increases the incentive to take profits for those who bought at lower price levels.
- On 22/9, net realized profit converted into BTC was about 25.7k BTC,
the highest in 2026
This is the profit recorded when the coin moves relative to its on-chain cost basis, not the volume of 25.7 thousand BTC that has been confirmed as sold on the exchange.
=> Data shows that profit-realization activity has increased strongly; the impact on price still depends on how well buyers can absorb it.
- In the report for 29/9, CryptoQuant simultaneously recorded weaker spot demand, slower growth in futures demand, and increased altcoin deposits on exchanges. When profit-taking rises but buying demand does not improve correspondingly, it will be difficult for the price to maintain the pace of the prior upswing. Specifically, the altcoins moved to exchanges only reflect that sellable assets have increased; it does not yet confirm that all of that amount has been sold.
4. Buying pressure is coming into the area to watch
- The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta (90) indicator is recovering toward the zone where it appeared in periods of shifts in buying power. If Delta continues to rise along with price, the recovery move has additional supportive signals; if price rises but Delta stalls or reverses, the divergence will indicate that buying power is not improving accordingly.
- CryptoQuant highlights support levels at 80k, 71k, and 67k, while Glassnode’s True Market Mean is at 77.2k. These levels come from different models, so it’s important to watch how price reacts and how money flows as BTC approaches each zone.
=> For now, the ability to hold 84–85k is the closest test for the current recovery move.
=> I think the leverage structure has cooled down, but the large amount of profit-taking is demanding that new buying power continues to absorb it. The bullish scenario has more support if BTC holds 84–85k, while spot demand and Delta improve; if buying pressure stalls, the price may need additional accumulation or a retest of support zones below.
- Do you think the scenario is that BTC absorbs the profit-taking amount and then continues, or does it need more time around 84–85k?