circle

$CRCL This quarter’s most worth watching isn’t that total revenue grew only 7%, but that USDC usage data is still accelerating. Circulating supply, on-chain transaction volume, and payment network institutions connected are all expanding. However, falling interest rates and channel distribution costs mean this quarter’s revenue elasticity is not as strong as the headline business data suggests.
First look at the core data
In Q2, total revenue and reserve earnings were USD 701 million, up 7% year over year. Of this, reserve earnings were USD 668 million, up 5% year over year, while other revenue was USD 34 million, up 41% year over year. After deducting distribution, trading, and other costs, RLDC was USD 289 million, up 15% year over year, corresponding to an RLDC profit margin of 41%. Adjusted EBITDA was USD 143 million, up 8% year over year.

Abstract: Circle delivered the worst quarterly performance since listing—its revenue growth rate fell to single digits for the first time, USDC in circulation shrank quarter over quarter, and its market share continued to be eroded. But the real threat isn’t Tether—it’s Open USD, which is about to enter the scene. This article dissects every key signal in Circle’s Q2 earnings report, and the deeper shifts in the stablecoin market landscape behind it.
1. A 7% growth rate: Circle’s slowest quarter since going public. In 2026 Q2, Circle’s revenue was $701 million, up 7% year over year—below market expectations of $717 million.
Since Circle went public, its revenue growth rate has fallen below double digits for the first time. By way of comparison, year-over-year growth in the previous few quarters had always stayed above double digits. The immediate reason for the slowdown is the decline in its reserve yield. Circle’s business model is essentially “manage money for others and earn the interest rate spread.” As expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts heated up and short-term Treasury yields fell back from their high levels, Circle’s revenue engine began to slow down. More worrying than the growth rate itself is the trend. By the end of Q2, USDC in circulation was $73.3 billion. Although that represented a 19% year-over-year increase, it fell by nearly 5% quarter over quarter compared with $77.0 billion at the end of Q1. With both a shrinking circulation base and falling yields, Circle’s core business growth logic is being systematically weakened. That said, EPS of $0.18 beat market expectations, helped in part by sales revenue from Arc tokens. Circle also raised its full-year revenue guidance accordingly. Near-term financial data may not look too bad, but the core growth curve has already started to turn.

Sets Price Target at $140 Driven by Wall Street and the Blockchain 'Arc'
Despite market doubts about the competition and the interest-rate environment, the prestigious research firm Bernstein has stepped forward, reiterating its "Outperform" rating for #Circle (issuer of #USDC ), while maintaining a solid $140 price target. In its report, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani say that bearish investors are overlooking the company’s overwhelming institutional distribution network and its promising new monetization avenues.

Overnight, the crypto-coin market for stablecoin has seen a mild rebound, but the most noteworthy signal isn’t a sudden surge in any single coin. Instead, it’s a new contradiction emerging: stablecoin usage is accelerating dramatically while issuers’ revenues are under pressure. In Q2, Circle’s on-chain USDC transaction volume grew 151% year over year, while circulation rose 19% to $73.3 billion. Yet after the earnings release, the company’s share price fell by nearly 4% in early trading.
The core takeaway is this: the market is no longer just asking whether USDC growth is happening—it’s now asking whether that growth can offset the revenue losses caused by falling interest rates. Stablecoins are shifting from the high-interest era’s “interest income business” to an infrastructure business that must prove its value through payments, settlement, custody, and network effects.