$CRCL 24 hours of smashing down nearly 11 points, price touched 90.94, and trading volume exploded to 166 million. This volume is definitely not small for normal conditions. The fee is still positive at 0.00054241, which looks inconspicuous, but it can't hide the fact that the price is heading south. Bulls have to supply the bears every 8 hours, and with an open interest of 480,000, there hasn't been a noticeable drop, indicating that either someone is firmly buying at the bottom, or the trapped funds are still holding on tight.
This bearish candlestick made me reevaluate the structure. The circulating market cap of on-chain US stock targets is not particularly dispersed; when retail sentiment retreats, liquidity thins out. When the fee is positive and the price drops like this, it's one of the most painful scenarios—bulls are losing net value while also paying overnight interest. From my experience, until the fee drops into negative territory, this kind of slow decline is hard to stop neatly. Increased trading volume and high open interest indicate that bulls and bears are exchanging hands, but the bottom hasn't been formed yet. I was watching a similar setup last week, where the fee and price diverged for three days, and finally, a spike in the early morning liquidated most high-leverage long positions before bouncing back up. Right now, this rhythm feels even worse because there aren't any reference points in the same sector; $CRCL is weakening on its own, without any leading support, making it feel even more isolated.
My plan is simple. As long as the price stays below 94 and the fee remains positive, I'm definitely not going long. Trying to catch the bottom now is just pushing into a crowded long queue. If we accelerate and break below the 90 mark, historically, these positions often follow with a strong liquidation. If one day I really see the fee turn negative and the price stabilizes around 89 with volume, I might consider picking up some spot to observe, but I won't rush into a position. Most voices in the market will see this drop as a discount opportunity, but I don't see it that way. The fee and open interest haven't decreased, indicating that the real pain hasn't hit yet.
Last month, I fell into a similar structure, thinking that as long as the positive fee kept the price sideways, I could slowly recover. In the end, holding those positions for a couple of days resulted in my account being bitten by the fee, causing my mindset to implode.
Trading tags:
#BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM
#CRCL #CRCLUSDT $CRCL