AAVE bounces 6% as Bitcoin-collateral vote closes TODAY
Snapshot (Binance, 17:51 PKT, 9 Nov): $133.60, +2.7% in 24h, range $124.04-$134.18, Binance vol $16.0M, total vol $240M (CoinGecko), MC $2.06B, rank 45. Green while BTC ($74,810, -1.5%) and ETH ($2,124, -5.1%) keep bleeding. Fear and Greed 29, Fear.
Why it matters: Aave DAO's Snapshot vote on native BTC as collateral for Aave V4, via Babylon Trustless Bitcoin Vaults (BTC stays on Bitcoin, no wrapping, no custodian), closes today 19:03 PKT. LlamaRisk proposed a 300 BTC cap and 78% collateral factor. Even a pass needs a second onchain vote before launch. Plus: Payward (Kraken) bought an undisclosed AAVE stake on 5 Nov, and Aave V4 deposits crossed $1.5B.
Technicals: 8 Nov close $126.16 (-4.2%). Today bounced +5.9% intraday and now tests EMA20 $135.38. Still below SMA50 $150.31, above SMA200 $109.26. RSI 41 (closed), 48 live. 7d -6.3%, 30d -24.6%, YTD -13.6%. 30d high $173.03, low $115.23. ATH $666.86 (May 2021), -81% below.
Expectations (base-rate, NOT a guarantee): AAVE has NO options market, so odds come from its own 1,000 daily candles. Setups like today (close 5%+ below EMA20, RSI 35-50, 7d -10% to 0%): +8% first 30%, -8% first 30%, neither 40% (N=20; 7d later higher 45%). Wider checks agree: N=55 gives 33/35/33. Pure coin flip - the vote is real, but history gives no directional edge.
Plan: no chasing. Reclaim trade only on daily close above EMA20 $135.38, safer above SMA50 $150.31. Dip only if $126 holds and close back above $130, tiny size. Invalidation: daily close below $124.04 opens $115.23, then SMA200 $109.26. Targets on reclaim: $135.38, $150.31, $173.03. Spot only, half size max. Confidence: Low.
Risk: April Kelp rsETH exploit left a potential $124-230M bad-debt overhang; buybacks paused since April. CPI lands 10 Nov.
$AAVE #AAVE #Aave #DeFi