๐ OIL DIDNโT FIND PEACEโฆ IT JUST GOT A BRIEF REPRIEVE.
Imagine that...
๐ข๏ธ Brent violently reacted to the fear of war.
Then Monday arrived, and the market suddenly heard a very different sentence:
โMaybe we pause the strikesโฆ if the other side pauses too.โ
And just like that, the war premium took a โhaircut.โ Reuters reported that Brent fell by about 7.5% to $89.42 and that WTI dropped to around $84.33 after the United States and Iran suspended military strikes over the weekend. But itโs still not an official peace deal โ just a fragile pause, with lots of uncertainty still hanging over the market.
Hereโs the real twist...
Oil didnโt fall because the supply problems disappeared.
It fell because traders started taking profits on fear.
For the past two weeks, the market has been pricing in the risk of war, disruptions to shipping, and a much hotter inflation trajectory. Once the tone shifted slightly, this fear premium unwound very quickly. Reuters also noted that ship traffic through Hormuz remains severely restricted and that analysts still see a major supply risk ahead, so this isnโt a โcleanโ resolution.
๐ Three numbers sum it all up:
๐ข๏ธ Brent : $89.42
๐ข๏ธ WTI : $84.33
โ ๏ธ This is a pause, not peace.
๐ง Square Insight
Markets donโt โpriceโ only oil.
They price fear.
They price shipping risk.
They price inflation expectations.
And when fear fades, even for a moment...
oil can drop faster than most
๐ What do you think?
Is this just a temporary relief rally for risk assets...
or is the worst of the oil shock already behind us?
#oil #Macro #brent $BTC $XAUT