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Jumi - Crypto Insight
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Jumi - Crypto Insight

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⚡️$EDENUSDT surged strongly by 15.61% in the past 24 hours, with volume quickly expanding! No clear news on the horizon yet—this is purely a short-term capital-driven bullish breakout pattern. Ride the momentum and look for bullish continuation 🚀 TP1: 0.069504 TP2: 0.071529 TP3: 0.074228 #EDEN #altcoin
⚡️$EDENUSDT surged strongly by 15.61% in the past 24 hours, with volume quickly expanding! No clear news on the horizon yet—this is purely a short-term capital-driven bullish breakout pattern. Ride the momentum and look for bullish continuation 🚀

TP1: 0.069504
TP2: 0.071529
TP3: 0.074228

#EDEN #altcoin
$BTC remains at the top of CoinGecko's trending search list and firmly holds its leading position in terms of market cap. The market structure is increasingly showing solid buyer resilience. From a technical perspective, the daily moving average system is gradually converging and building up to form a bullish alignment. The allocation of positions in the key support range is very well consolidated. As market attention continues to focus, the certainty of breaking upward through the resistance level and extending the bullish trend is becoming significantly stronger.🚀 #Bitcoin #Layer1
$BTC remains at the top of CoinGecko's trending search list and firmly holds its leading position in terms of market cap. The market structure is increasingly showing solid buyer resilience. From a technical perspective, the daily moving average system is gradually converging and building up to form a bullish alignment. The allocation of positions in the key support range is very well consolidated. As market attention continues to focus, the certainty of breaking upward through the resistance level and extending the bullish trend is becoming significantly stronger.🚀

#Bitcoin #Layer1
In recent trading sessions, the US Treasury market has seen a notable surge in volatility. The 5-year US Treasury yield has continued to climb, breaking through to 4.48%, the highest level since February 2025. Judging by price action on the screen, this rapid rise in intermediate-term US Treasury yields has directly pushed the yield curve into the earlier dense trading range and key technical resistance zones, becoming the central focus for macro traders right now. The core of this yield spike lies in the market’s reassessment of expectations for macro liquidity and the pace of rate cuts. 4.48% not only marks a fresh phase high, but also completes a test of the prior resistance platform on the technical charts. Notably, this rise in yields more reflects positioning adjustments after the market digests resilient economic data, rather than a systemic liquidity panic. As rates rapidly approach technical extremes, the release of short positions in the bond market often signals that short-term macro uncertainty is being priced in quickly. From the perspective of traditional financial market cross-linkages, the 5-year US Treasury yield surge has supported the US dollar index’s high-range consolidation in the short term and has also exerted some valuation pressure on non-yielding assets. However, based on technical indicators, when yields approach the 4.50% area near a strong pressure threshold, signals of marginal slowdown in upward momentum have emerged, with indicators such as RSI showing signs of overbought top divergence. If intermediate-term US Treasury yields face resistance and pull back, cross-asset liquidity is likely to loosen in stages, and capital could quickly rotate back into risk assets. For the crypto market, despite the spike in macro rates, $BTC and major coins have demonstrated strong order-book absorption and price resilience, without any panic-driven breakdown. This technically stubborn performance under bearish pressure suggests that underlying market buy-side demand is very solid. As macro bearish factors complete their pressure test at the 4.48% high, once yields peak and begin to fall, crypto assets may enter a valuation-repair rally driven by a rebound in risk appetite. 🚀 #美债 #宏观经济 #Interest rates
In recent trading sessions, the US Treasury market has seen a notable surge in volatility. The 5-year US Treasury yield has continued to climb, breaking through to 4.48%, the highest level since February 2025. Judging by price action on the screen, this rapid rise in intermediate-term US Treasury yields has directly pushed the yield curve into the earlier dense trading range and key technical resistance zones, becoming the central focus for macro traders right now.

The core of this yield spike lies in the market’s reassessment of expectations for macro liquidity and the pace of rate cuts. 4.48% not only marks a fresh phase high, but also completes a test of the prior resistance platform on the technical charts. Notably, this rise in yields more reflects positioning adjustments after the market digests resilient economic data, rather than a systemic liquidity panic. As rates rapidly approach technical extremes, the release of short positions in the bond market often signals that short-term macro uncertainty is being priced in quickly.

From the perspective of traditional financial market cross-linkages, the 5-year US Treasury yield surge has supported the US dollar index’s high-range consolidation in the short term and has also exerted some valuation pressure on non-yielding assets. However, based on technical indicators, when yields approach the 4.50% area near a strong pressure threshold, signals of marginal slowdown in upward momentum have emerged, with indicators such as RSI showing signs of overbought top divergence. If intermediate-term US Treasury yields face resistance and pull back, cross-asset liquidity is likely to loosen in stages, and capital could quickly rotate back into risk assets.

For the crypto market, despite the spike in macro rates, $BTC and major coins have demonstrated strong order-book absorption and price resilience, without any panic-driven breakdown. This technically stubborn performance under bearish pressure suggests that underlying market buy-side demand is very solid. As macro bearish factors complete their pressure test at the 4.48% high, once yields peak and begin to fall, crypto assets may enter a valuation-repair rally driven by a rebound in risk appetite. 🚀

#美债 #宏观经济 #Interest rates
Ahead of CNBC’s interview with Chicago Fed Chair Austan Goolsbee, the commodity markets saw sharp intraday swings. Spot gold plunged by more than $100 in a single day, down 2.26%, breaking below the key psychological level of $4,500 per ounce to around $4,509.55 and briefly falling to its lowest level since Aug. 20. Meanwhile, spot silver also rapidly slid, down 2.3% on the day, losing the $68 per ounce mark and dropping to $67.67 per ounce. In the short term, the technical patterns in the precious metals sector faced intense bearish pressure. From a technical and positioning-structure perspective, this deep pullback in commodities carries extremely important signal value. Gold had previously experienced a long-cycle uptrend, but once $4,500—an important psychological support and a liquidity-dense area—was broken, it directly triggered stop-loss selling by longs and set off a deleveraging chain reaction. For the market, concentrated selling of safe-haven assets ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve officials indicates that previously overcrowded extreme defensive positions are undergoing a healthy technical “price clearing” and a reshuffling of market positions. At the macro and traditional financial-market level, large declines in precious metals often imply that safe-haven sentiment is fading and that capital is taking profits from the highly conservative precious-metals liquidity pool. When gold and silver pull back and release significant margin and liquidity, macro funds typically seek asset categories with a better risk-reward profile. The repricing of the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields at this juncture further encourages rotation out of traditional defensive segments and into assets with greater growth potential. For the crypto market, this capital rotation provides an overall bullish signal. As a native digital asset, $BTC often absorbs some of the higher-risk preference capital that flows out of the precious-metals market when traditional gold experiences selling pressure. Technical charts show that when traditional hedging assets cool off from overbought conditions, it often substantially improves the overall liquidity environment and risk appetite in the broader risk market (Risk-on), providing ample momentum and sentiment support for crypto assets to break above overhead resistance.🚀 #黄金 #大宗商品 #Federal Reserve
Ahead of CNBC’s interview with Chicago Fed Chair Austan Goolsbee, the commodity markets saw sharp intraday swings. Spot gold plunged by more than $100 in a single day, down 2.26%, breaking below the key psychological level of $4,500 per ounce to around $4,509.55 and briefly falling to its lowest level since Aug. 20. Meanwhile, spot silver also rapidly slid, down 2.3% on the day, losing the $68 per ounce mark and dropping to $67.67 per ounce. In the short term, the technical patterns in the precious metals sector faced intense bearish pressure.

From a technical and positioning-structure perspective, this deep pullback in commodities carries extremely important signal value. Gold had previously experienced a long-cycle uptrend, but once $4,500—an important psychological support and a liquidity-dense area—was broken, it directly triggered stop-loss selling by longs and set off a deleveraging chain reaction. For the market, concentrated selling of safe-haven assets ahead of remarks from Federal Reserve officials indicates that previously overcrowded extreme defensive positions are undergoing a healthy technical “price clearing” and a reshuffling of market positions.

At the macro and traditional financial-market level, large declines in precious metals often imply that safe-haven sentiment is fading and that capital is taking profits from the highly conservative precious-metals liquidity pool. When gold and silver pull back and release significant margin and liquidity, macro funds typically seek asset categories with a better risk-reward profile. The repricing of the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields at this juncture further encourages rotation out of traditional defensive segments and into assets with greater growth potential.

For the crypto market, this capital rotation provides an overall bullish signal. As a native digital asset, $BTC often absorbs some of the higher-risk preference capital that flows out of the precious-metals market when traditional gold experiences selling pressure. Technical charts show that when traditional hedging assets cool off from overbought conditions, it often substantially improves the overall liquidity environment and risk appetite in the broader risk market (Risk-on), providing ample momentum and sentiment support for crypto assets to break above overhead resistance.🚀

#黄金 #大宗商品 #Federal Reserve
At the just-concluded Jackson Hole annual global central bank meeting, Federal Reserve leadership delivered a highly anticipated, weighty policy speech on Friday. In her first appearance, Fed Chair Walsh, during a speech lasting more than half an hour, set a clearly hawkish tone, stating plainly that while inflation is moving downward, there is not yet a significant overall improvement trend; if price pressures cannot clearly and quickly fall back to the Fed’s 2% target level, the central bank “still has a lot of work to do,” and she even did not rule out further rate hikes in the coming months. At the same time, ECB Executive Board members such as Dolenc and Lorenzo also echoed the view that the case for a rate hike in September is already more than sufficiently justified. The overall messaging shattered the market’s earlier one-sided bets that policy would rapidly pivot toward easing. From a macro and trading perspective, the reason this stance triggered a major market shock is that it overturned expectations of an immediate shift to neutrality in the near term, reshaping the probability of a September rate hike in a structural way. However, from the viewpoint of technical traders, while Walsh emphasized fighting inflation, she also highlighted elevated corporate profits, resilient consumer spending, and credit spreads that are continuing to narrow—and she said directly that current financial conditions have not shown any real tightening. This in turn confirms that the underlying macro economy still has very strong resilience to risks. This hawkish tone is more a matter of expectation management and an early release of risk premium, rather than a passive tightening triggered by an economic downturn—effectively ruling out extreme tail risks of stagflation. Driven by this reconfiguration of liquidity expectations, traditional global financial assets showed sharp structural divergence. In the bond market, short-dated U.S. Treasuries were hit by selloffs; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury jumped by 10 basis points in a single day to 4.33% (intraday, it touched 4.28%), while the yield on the 30-year long end fell by 1 basis point to 5.19%, indicating that concerns about long-term inflation getting out of control did not spread. Foreign exchange and commodities also swung violently in tandem: the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded strongly; the dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) surged by about 50 basis points and again tested the 160 level (last at 159.87); EUR/USD slipped below 1.16 to 1.1607 (down 0.44% intraday); GBP/USD retreated to 1.3545; and NZD/USD fell 0.50% to 0.5919. Spot gold was hit by profit-taking during the session, pulling back nearly $100 from its highs and briefly dipping to $4,530 per ounce before rebounding to $4,560 per ounce. Spot silver tested $68.1 before stabilizing at $69.0 per ounce, while spot palladium surged against the trend, jumping 8.00% to $1,457.21 per ounce—commodities displayed strong signs of a liquidity shakeout. For crypto assets and risk-on markets, the short-term macro hawkish shock looks more like a healthy and necessary deleveraging move. With strong fundamentals and solid economic momentum providing a backstop, core assets such as $BTC , after concentrated realization of negative news, appear to be accelerating the shift of positions toward long-term capital. A spike in short-end rates often signals the most extreme pricing of hawkish policy expectations. Once the market completes liquidity replenishment and bottoms out in terms of volume within key technical support ranges, and as the macro “shoe” drops and risk appetite among funds repairs, the crypto market may be set to deliver a more persistent right-side breakout. 📈 #fed #利率决议 #Macroeconomic conditions
At the just-concluded Jackson Hole annual global central bank meeting, Federal Reserve leadership delivered a highly anticipated, weighty policy speech on Friday. In her first appearance, Fed Chair Walsh, during a speech lasting more than half an hour, set a clearly hawkish tone, stating plainly that while inflation is moving downward, there is not yet a significant overall improvement trend; if price pressures cannot clearly and quickly fall back to the Fed’s 2% target level, the central bank “still has a lot of work to do,” and she even did not rule out further rate hikes in the coming months. At the same time, ECB Executive Board members such as Dolenc and Lorenzo also echoed the view that the case for a rate hike in September is already more than sufficiently justified. The overall messaging shattered the market’s earlier one-sided bets that policy would rapidly pivot toward easing.

From a macro and trading perspective, the reason this stance triggered a major market shock is that it overturned expectations of an immediate shift to neutrality in the near term, reshaping the probability of a September rate hike in a structural way. However, from the viewpoint of technical traders, while Walsh emphasized fighting inflation, she also highlighted elevated corporate profits, resilient consumer spending, and credit spreads that are continuing to narrow—and she said directly that current financial conditions have not shown any real tightening. This in turn confirms that the underlying macro economy still has very strong resilience to risks. This hawkish tone is more a matter of expectation management and an early release of risk premium, rather than a passive tightening triggered by an economic downturn—effectively ruling out extreme tail risks of stagflation.

Driven by this reconfiguration of liquidity expectations, traditional global financial assets showed sharp structural divergence. In the bond market, short-dated U.S. Treasuries were hit by selloffs; the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury jumped by 10 basis points in a single day to 4.33% (intraday, it touched 4.28%), while the yield on the 30-year long end fell by 1 basis point to 5.19%, indicating that concerns about long-term inflation getting out of control did not spread. Foreign exchange and commodities also swung violently in tandem: the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded strongly; the dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) surged by about 50 basis points and again tested the 160 level (last at 159.87); EUR/USD slipped below 1.16 to 1.1607 (down 0.44% intraday); GBP/USD retreated to 1.3545; and NZD/USD fell 0.50% to 0.5919. Spot gold was hit by profit-taking during the session, pulling back nearly $100 from its highs and briefly dipping to $4,530 per ounce before rebounding to $4,560 per ounce. Spot silver tested $68.1 before stabilizing at $69.0 per ounce, while spot palladium surged against the trend, jumping 8.00% to $1,457.21 per ounce—commodities displayed strong signs of a liquidity shakeout.

For crypto assets and risk-on markets, the short-term macro hawkish shock looks more like a healthy and necessary deleveraging move. With strong fundamentals and solid economic momentum providing a backstop, core assets such as $BTC , after concentrated realization of negative news, appear to be accelerating the shift of positions toward long-term capital. A spike in short-end rates often signals the most extreme pricing of hawkish policy expectations. Once the market completes liquidity replenishment and bottoms out in terms of volume within key technical support ranges, and as the macro “shoe” drops and risk appetite among funds repairs, the crypto market may be set to deliver a more persistent right-side breakout. 📈

#fed #利率决议 #Macroeconomic conditions
Jackson Hole sends a somewhat hawkish signal. Fed policymakers emphasized that U.S. businesses’ investment has accelerated and the labor market remains solid. Credit spreads have not shown signs of tightening. As inflation has not yet been clearly and rapidly brought back to the 2% target range, policymakers still retain the option of further rate hikes. As a result, short-term U.S. Treasuries saw heavy selling: the yield on the 2-year note rose by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the yield on the 30-year note edged down by 1 basis point to 5.19%. From a technical and macro pricing perspective, this spike higher in short-end yields may boost near-term expectations of rate hikes and suppress some risk appetite. However, its underlying support comes from strong real-economy fundamentals and a healthy credit environment, which effectively rules out the risk of a hard landing liquidity crunch in the near term. The short-term pullback and consolidation looks more like a healthy deleveraging and rotation to build momentum. With no signs of a recession in the fundamentals, once liquidity digests the hawkish expectations, mainstream crypto assets such as $BTC will likely find stronger support at key technical levels. A structurally upward trend still has solid macro backing.📈 #Fed #宏观分析 # cryptocurrency
Jackson Hole sends a somewhat hawkish signal. Fed policymakers emphasized that U.S. businesses’ investment has accelerated and the labor market remains solid. Credit spreads have not shown signs of tightening. As inflation has not yet been clearly and rapidly brought back to the 2% target range, policymakers still retain the option of further rate hikes. As a result, short-term U.S. Treasuries saw heavy selling: the yield on the 2-year note rose by 5 basis points to 4.28%, while the yield on the 30-year note edged down by 1 basis point to 5.19%.

From a technical and macro pricing perspective, this spike higher in short-end yields may boost near-term expectations of rate hikes and suppress some risk appetite. However, its underlying support comes from strong real-economy fundamentals and a healthy credit environment, which effectively rules out the risk of a hard landing liquidity crunch in the near term.

The short-term pullback and consolidation looks more like a healthy deleveraging and rotation to build momentum. With no signs of a recession in the fundamentals, once liquidity digests the hawkish expectations, mainstream crypto assets such as $BTC will likely find stronger support at key technical levels. A structurally upward trend still has solid macro backing.📈

#Fed #宏观分析 # cryptocurrency
⚡️ ETHEREUM'S FUSAKA UPGRADE IS NOW LIVE! Fusaka Ethereum’s second major network upgrade of the year has officially gone live. This update enhances scalability and lowers costs through PeerDAS, a new mechanism that allows validators to verify only segmented portions of data instead of processing entire blobs. #Fukasa #ETH $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)
⚡️ ETHEREUM'S FUSAKA UPGRADE IS NOW LIVE!

Fusaka Ethereum’s second major network upgrade of the year has officially gone live.
This update enhances scalability and lowers costs through PeerDAS, a new mechanism that allows validators to verify only segmented portions of data instead of processing entire blobs.
#Fukasa #ETH $ETH
Article
CEX Listing Performance: Where is the Safe Haven for Capital? There’s been a lot of talk recently about tokens dumping hard after listing on @binance . Let's look at the data across all exchanges for a broader perspective. ❌ The Reality: A sea of red. The loss rate for buying new listings ranges from 87-93% market-wide. ✅ Performance Ranking (Win Rate): 🥇 Coinbase: 13.2% 🥈 Kraken: 12.5% 🥉 Binance: 11.9% ... 🔻 Lowest: Cryptocom (6.9%), Bithumb (7.7%), Kucoin (8.7%). 3 Key Takeaways for this Cycle: 1️⃣ Listing is no longer a "Money Printer": Unlike 2021, current ROI is mostly NEGATIVE regardless of the exchange. Market Makers and VCs have changed the game. 2️⃣ Binance FUD is emotional: The data proves Binance remains Tier 1 in terms of project quality (Top 3). 3️⃣ New Strategy: Instead of blindly FOMOing into the listing candle: ▪️Check FDV carefully (avoid overvaluation). ▪️Monitor the Orderbook and Real Volume. ▪️Be patient and wait for price equilibrium. #BİNANCE

CEX Listing Performance: Where is the Safe Haven for Capital?

There’s been a lot of talk recently about tokens dumping hard after listing on @binance . Let's look at the data across all exchanges for a broader perspective.
❌ The Reality: A sea of red. The loss rate for buying new listings ranges from 87-93% market-wide.
✅ Performance Ranking (Win Rate):
🥇 Coinbase: 13.2%
🥈 Kraken: 12.5%
🥉 Binance: 11.9% ...
🔻 Lowest: Cryptocom (6.9%), Bithumb (7.7%), Kucoin (8.7%).
3 Key Takeaways for this Cycle:
1️⃣ Listing is no longer a "Money Printer": Unlike 2021, current ROI is mostly NEGATIVE regardless of the exchange. Market Makers and VCs have changed the game.
2️⃣ Binance FUD is emotional: The data proves Binance remains Tier 1 in terms of project quality (Top 3).
3️⃣ New Strategy: Instead of blindly FOMOing into the listing candle:
▪️Check FDV carefully (avoid overvaluation).
▪️Monitor the Orderbook and Real Volume.
▪️Be patient and wait for price equilibrium.
#BİNANCE
Article
Crypto Market Outlook November 2025: Are Altcoins Preparing for a Breakout? The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility toward the end of November 2025, with the global total market capitalization (including Bitcoin) reaching approximately $2.84 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $87,230, up 1.76% in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) sits at $2,839, rising 1.78% over the same period. However, beneath this surface-level stability lie important technical signals suggesting the potential start of a new altcoin cycle — similar to what happened in 2021. This article provides an in-depth analysis based on the latest market data, focusing on TOTAL3/BTC and BTC Dominance while comparing current conditions to historical cycles. Overall Market Conditions The crypto market has seen a steep decline over the past six weeks, losing more than $1 trillion in market cap, according to CoinGecko and reports from The Guardian. In early November 2025, strong outflows pushed Bitcoin to a low of $80,553, while Ether hit a four-month bottom. The main drivers include fears of a tech bubble, the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy, and volatility across tech stocks globally. Despite this, the market is showing mild recovery signs: Most of the top 10 tokens have posted 24h gains, with Dogecoin (DOGE) +2.73% and XRP +2.24% leading. The Altcoin Season Index has climbed into the mid-40s — the highest in a month — signaling that capital is gradually rotating away from Bitcoin. TOTAL3/BTC Analysis: Signs of a Bottom and Rebound TOTAL3/BTC measures altcoin strength relative to Bitcoin (total altcoin market cap excluding BTC and ETH, divided by BTC price). According to TradingView, the index formed a new low in early November 2025, breaking a multi-year downward trendline (2022–2025). TOTAL3/BTC has now bounced above the 50-week moving average (50W MA) — a strong technical signal. Market Data: According to Kairon Labs (11/11/2025), TOTAL3 shows clear bottoming signals and a minor rebound from recent lows, though momentum remains weak. Compared to its 2021 peak, the index is still down more than 80%, but the trendline breakout suggests altcoin inflows may accelerate. Significance: This mirrors early 2021, when TOTAL3/BTC doubled in a few months, triggering altseason with tokens like SOL and ADA rising 10–20x. If history repeats, rising TOTAL3/BTC could indicate that altcoins are poised to outperform, particularly as fragmented liquidity across small CEXs and DEXs creates opportunities for niche tokens (memecoins or new DeFi projects). BTC Dominance: Breaking a Four-Year Uptrend and Entering a Bearish Retest BTC Dominance — the percentage of total crypto market cap represented by Bitcoin — is a crucial indicator. According to CoinMarketCap and TradingView, dominance recently broke its four-year uptrend (since 2021), peaking at 61.4% in early November before dropping to 58.8%, stabilizing around 59% (Bitget News, 23/11/2025). Technical View: Dominance is showing a bearish retest after breaking its ascending channel — the same pattern that led to a drop from 60% to 39% during the 2021 cycle. When dominance falls below 60%, capital usually flows into altcoins, boosting TOTAL3. Current Context: Despite strong outflows and risk-off sentiment, dominance weakening aligns with the TOTAL3 rebound — a bullish sign for altcoins. Comparison to the 2021 Cycle: BTC Down, Market Still Expands The most notable similarity to 2021 is the alignment of signals: TOTAL3/BTC breakout + dominance breakdown, while BTC also retraced more than 30% from its high (from ~64k to ~47k). However, BTC still went on to set a new all-time high at $69k in November 2021, igniting an altcoin explosion. Current (Nov 2025): BTC is pulling back from its October peak (~$95k) to ~$87k, mirroring the “mid-cycle correction” seen in 2021. The market setup is nearly identical: weak BTC, rising TOTAL3, falling dominance. Reuters (21/11/2025) notes BTC is “on thin ice” due to risk volatility — but historically, these conditions precede major altcoin runs. Conclusion Despite short-term risks — including a 25% market cap drop from the October peak and major macro factors (Fed policy, inflation, and the AI/tech bubble) — both technical data and historical patterns paint a more optimistic picture. The breakout of TOTAL3/BTC and the bearish retest in BTC dominance are strong signals that the largest altcoin expansion phase has not yet occurred. If history rhymes, the market may be mid-cycle, with altcoins poised for significant growth heading into Q1 2026. (Data updated to 24/11/2025 UTC.) #Altcoin $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)

Crypto Market Outlook November 2025: Are Altcoins Preparing for a Breakout?

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility toward the end of November 2025, with the global total market capitalization (including Bitcoin) reaching approximately $2.84 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $87,230, up 1.76% in the last 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) sits at $2,839, rising 1.78% over the same period. However, beneath this surface-level stability lie important technical signals suggesting the potential start of a new altcoin cycle — similar to what happened in 2021. This article provides an in-depth analysis based on the latest market data, focusing on TOTAL3/BTC and BTC Dominance while comparing current conditions to historical cycles.
Overall Market Conditions
The crypto market has seen a steep decline over the past six weeks, losing more than $1 trillion in market cap, according to CoinGecko and reports from The Guardian. In early November 2025, strong outflows pushed Bitcoin to a low of $80,553, while Ether hit a four-month bottom. The main drivers include fears of a tech bubble, the Federal Reserve’s tighter monetary policy, and volatility across tech stocks globally. Despite this, the market is showing mild recovery signs:
Most of the top 10 tokens have posted 24h gains, with Dogecoin (DOGE) +2.73% and XRP +2.24% leading.
The Altcoin Season Index has climbed into the mid-40s — the highest in a month — signaling that capital is gradually rotating away from Bitcoin.
TOTAL3/BTC Analysis: Signs of a Bottom and Rebound
TOTAL3/BTC measures altcoin strength relative to Bitcoin (total altcoin market cap excluding BTC and ETH, divided by BTC price). According to TradingView, the index formed a new low in early November 2025, breaking a multi-year downward trendline (2022–2025). TOTAL3/BTC has now bounced above the 50-week moving average (50W MA) — a strong technical signal.
Market Data: According to Kairon Labs (11/11/2025), TOTAL3 shows clear bottoming signals and a minor rebound from recent lows, though momentum remains weak. Compared to its 2021 peak, the index is still down more than 80%, but the trendline breakout suggests altcoin inflows may accelerate.
Significance: This mirrors early 2021, when TOTAL3/BTC doubled in a few months, triggering altseason with tokens like SOL and ADA rising 10–20x.
If history repeats, rising TOTAL3/BTC could indicate that altcoins are poised to outperform, particularly as fragmented liquidity across small CEXs and DEXs creates opportunities for niche tokens (memecoins or new DeFi projects).
BTC Dominance: Breaking a Four-Year Uptrend and Entering a Bearish Retest
BTC Dominance — the percentage of total crypto market cap represented by Bitcoin — is a crucial indicator. According to CoinMarketCap and TradingView, dominance recently broke its four-year uptrend (since 2021), peaking at 61.4% in early November before dropping to 58.8%, stabilizing around 59% (Bitget News, 23/11/2025).
Technical View: Dominance is showing a bearish retest after breaking its ascending channel — the same pattern that led to a drop from 60% to 39% during the 2021 cycle. When dominance falls below 60%, capital usually flows into altcoins, boosting TOTAL3.
Current Context: Despite strong outflows and risk-off sentiment, dominance weakening aligns with the TOTAL3 rebound — a bullish sign for altcoins.
Comparison to the 2021 Cycle: BTC Down, Market Still Expands
The most notable similarity to 2021 is the alignment of signals: TOTAL3/BTC breakout + dominance breakdown, while BTC also retraced more than 30% from its high (from ~64k to ~47k). However, BTC still went on to set a new all-time high at $69k in November 2021, igniting an altcoin explosion.
Current (Nov 2025): BTC is pulling back from its October peak (~$95k) to ~$87k, mirroring the “mid-cycle correction” seen in 2021.
The market setup is nearly identical: weak BTC, rising TOTAL3, falling dominance.
Reuters (21/11/2025) notes BTC is “on thin ice” due to risk volatility — but historically, these conditions precede major altcoin runs.
Conclusion
Despite short-term risks — including a 25% market cap drop from the October peak and major macro factors (Fed policy, inflation, and the AI/tech bubble) — both technical data and historical patterns paint a more optimistic picture. The breakout of TOTAL3/BTC and the bearish retest in BTC dominance are strong signals that the largest altcoin expansion phase has not yet occurred.
If history rhymes, the market may be mid-cycle, with altcoins poised for significant growth heading into Q1 2026.
(Data updated to 24/11/2025 UTC.) #Altcoin $BTC
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Bearish
Over $2 billion has been liquidated in the past 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index is now at 11 — an extreme fear level, the lowest in the past 9 months. Is this a bottom signal, or the start of a deeper panic as the market enters a long-term downtrend? $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
Over $2 billion has been liquidated in the past 24 hours.
The Fear & Greed Index is now at 11 — an extreme fear level, the lowest in the past 9 months.
Is this a bottom signal, or the start of a deeper panic as the market enters a long-term downtrend?
$BTC
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Bullish
🇺🇸 U.S. EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT (SEPTEMBER 2025) 📅 Expected to be announced today at 8:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC). Nonfarm Payrolls: | Forecast: 118K | Previous: 117K Unemployment Rate: 4.3% | Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.3% Based on the forecasts above, the September labor data is expected to cool slightly, with nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed may maintain a more dovish stance at the December meeting. #Fed $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
🇺🇸 U.S. EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT (SEPTEMBER 2025)
📅 Expected to be announced today at 8:30 AM ET (13:30 UTC).
Nonfarm Payrolls: | Forecast: 118K | Previous: 117K
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% | Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.3%
Based on the forecasts above, the September labor data is expected to cool slightly, with nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed may maintain a more dovish stance at the December meeting. #Fed $BTC
🇺🇸 U.S. EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT (SEPTEMBER 2025) 📅 Scheduled Release Date: November 20, 2025 Nonfarm Payrolls: | Forecast: 180K | Previous: 187K Unemployment Rate: 4.3% | Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.3% Based on the forecasts above, the September labor data is expected to cool slightly, with nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed may maintain a more dovish stance at the December meeting. #Fed
🇺🇸 U.S. EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT (SEPTEMBER 2025)
📅 Scheduled Release Date: November 20, 2025

Nonfarm Payrolls: | Forecast: 180K | Previous: 187K
Unemployment Rate: 4.3% | Forecast: 4.3% | Previous: 4.3%

Based on the forecasts above, the September labor data is expected to cool slightly, with nonfarm payrolls coming in below expectations and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the Fed may maintain a more dovish stance at the December meeting. #Fed
Update: $BTC has officially closed the daily candle below $100,000 after more than 188 days. Current price is $98,900, and the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 22.
Update:
$BTC has officially closed the daily candle below $100,000 after more than 188 days.
Current price is $98,900, and the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 22.
🇺🇸 US ECONOMIC DATA DELAYED! Jobless Claims and October CPI scheduled for 8:30 AM ET are now delayed due to the government shutdown. #cpi
🇺🇸 US ECONOMIC DATA DELAYED! Jobless Claims and October CPI scheduled for 8:30 AM ET are now delayed due to the government shutdown.
#cpi
Article
Fear & Greed Index at Extreme Fear: Market Bottom or Bull Trap? TL;DR The Fear and Greed Index stands at 24 (extreme fear) on November 13, 2025, close to the record low of 15 on March 11, 2025. Despite Bitcoin holding above $100,000, on-chain data shows strong whale accumulation, record net outflows, and a 14% decline in exchange reserves this year. Bitcoin’s individual Fear & Greed Index is 15, the lowest since February 27, 2025. Historical Context of Extreme Fear A BTC Fear & Greed reading below 20 often marks major market bottoms. The level of 15 on March 11, 2025 marked the yearly low around $80,000. The market then rebounded 40% to $112,000 within two weeks. Historical extreme fear events: • COVID crash (Mar 2020): Index ~10, BTC from $8,000 → $4,000 → +1,400% • Terra Luna collapse (Jun 2022): Index 8, bear-market bottom at $18,000 • Crypto Winter (Dec 2018): Index 5, bottom at $3,200 Current Market Sentiment The total crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 24, showing “irrational fear” despite BTC remaining in the six-figure zone — a classic reversal condition. On-Chain Data: Silent Accumulation Despite negative sentiment, blockchain data tells a different story: • Record net outflow: –7,500 BTC/day (14D SMA), lowest in 3 years • Exchange reserves down: 2.39M BTC — lowest in 7 years, down 14% YTD • Whale accumulation: +45,000 BTC this week — 2nd largest in 2025 • Long-term holders: absorbing supply from short-term sellers capitulating at a loss Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages, but the daily RSI is near oversold (30), a common reversal zone. Derivatives Market • Open interest: –1.57% (24h), leverage leaving the system • Max Pain: $103,000 (Nov 13), acting as resistance • Long liquidations: 83% ($133M), signaling capitulation Conclusion: Opportunity Within Fear Extreme fear + positive on-chain accumulation creates a strong contrarian setup. Historically, 80% of Fear & Greed readings below 25 lead to 10–30% rallies within 1–4 weeks. Bullish scenario: • Hold above $101,500 → targets $103,000 → $110,000 Risk scenario: • Break below $100,000 → cascade liquidations toward $98,000 As Warren Buffett said: “Be greedy when others are fearful.” And right now, the market is deeply fearful.

Fear & Greed Index at Extreme Fear: Market Bottom or Bull Trap?


TL;DR
The Fear and Greed Index stands at 24 (extreme fear) on November 13, 2025, close to the record low of 15 on March 11, 2025.
Despite Bitcoin holding above $100,000, on-chain data shows strong whale accumulation, record net outflows, and a 14% decline in exchange reserves this year.
Bitcoin’s individual Fear & Greed Index is 15, the lowest since February 27, 2025.
Historical Context of Extreme Fear
A BTC Fear & Greed reading below 20 often marks major market bottoms.
The level of 15 on March 11, 2025 marked the yearly low around $80,000.
The market then rebounded 40% to $112,000 within two weeks.
Historical extreme fear events:
• COVID crash (Mar 2020): Index ~10, BTC from $8,000 → $4,000 → +1,400%
• Terra Luna collapse (Jun 2022): Index 8, bear-market bottom at $18,000
• Crypto Winter (Dec 2018): Index 5, bottom at $3,200
Current Market Sentiment
The total crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 24, showing “irrational fear” despite BTC remaining in the six-figure zone — a classic reversal condition.
On-Chain Data: Silent Accumulation
Despite negative sentiment, blockchain data tells a different story:
• Record net outflow: –7,500 BTC/day (14D SMA), lowest in 3 years
• Exchange reserves down: 2.39M BTC — lowest in 7 years, down 14% YTD
• Whale accumulation: +45,000 BTC this week — 2nd largest in 2025
• Long-term holders: absorbing supply from short-term sellers capitulating at a loss
Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages, but the daily RSI is near oversold (30), a common reversal zone.
Derivatives Market
• Open interest: –1.57% (24h), leverage leaving the system
• Max Pain: $103,000 (Nov 13), acting as resistance
• Long liquidations: 83% ($133M), signaling capitulation
Conclusion: Opportunity Within Fear
Extreme fear + positive on-chain accumulation creates a strong contrarian setup.
Historically, 80% of Fear & Greed readings below 25 lead to 10–30% rallies within 1–4 weeks.
Bullish scenario:
• Hold above $101,500 → targets $103,000 → $110,000
Risk scenario:
• Break below $100,000 → cascade liquidations toward $98,000
As Warren Buffett said:
“Be greedy when others are fearful.”
And right now, the market is deeply fearful.
Binance Futures Will Delist USDⓈ-M MYROUSDT and 1000XUSDT Perpetual Contracts (2025-11-14) $MYRO $1000X {future}(1000XUSDT) {future}(MYROUSDT)
Binance Futures Will Delist USDⓈ-M MYROUSDT and 1000XUSDT Perpetual Contracts (2025-11-14)
$MYRO $1000X
President Donald Trump announced that he will provide at least $2,000 per person to most Americans, excluding high-income earners. The money will come from tariff revenues. Both the stock market and the crypto market reacted positively in the short term, driven by expectations of increased consumer spending from the cash injection. In the past, under President Joe Biden, the largest stimulus package — the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, worth $1.9 trillion — included direct payments of $1,400 per person to many households. This policy helped strengthen consumer confidence and pushed indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to record highs. However, the direct cash injections also contributed to a sharp rise in inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve (FED) to raise interest rates aggressively during 2022–2023. Therefore, while this announcement may bring short-term optimism, the market should remain cautious about the risk of renewed inflation and potential Fed intervention if the stimulus proves too strong. $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT) $BNB {spot}(BNBUSDT)
President Donald Trump announced that he will provide at least $2,000 per person to most Americans, excluding high-income earners. The money will come from tariff revenues. Both the stock market and the crypto market reacted positively in the short term, driven by expectations of increased consumer spending from the cash injection.

In the past, under President Joe Biden, the largest stimulus package — the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, worth $1.9 trillion — included direct payments of $1,400 per person to many households. This policy helped strengthen consumer confidence and pushed indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to record highs.

However, the direct cash injections also contributed to a sharp rise in inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve (FED) to raise interest rates aggressively during 2022–2023. Therefore, while this announcement may bring short-term optimism, the market should remain cautious about the risk of renewed inflation and potential Fed intervention if the stimulus proves too strong. $BTC
$BNB
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