fed

$BTC

🚨🚨 Is the Fed actually going to put rates up on the 28th of October? Rubbish

The proper question is: when on earth is the market going to rumble that the decision's already in the bag?

Nine out of eighteen officials have slapped a hike right onto the dot plot. That’s not a cheeky guess, mate, that’s a written vote hashed out weeks ago , And Warsh knows it, but he’s playing it dead crafty with tactical radio silence

No forward guidance, no personal dots

He reckons guidance is 'unsuitable'. That’s not being cautious; that’s legal cover so he can hike without getting accused of 'stitching up' market expectations

$ETH


​Inflation came in hotter than expected (3.7% and 2.6%), and hike odds shot up to 42% in a single day , Yields didn't hang about: the 10-year touched 5.37%, and the 30-year smashed past 5.7%. The market's already pricing it in

​And here’s where most crypto traders are making a proper cock-up: they reckon spiking yields equals curtains for Bitcoin , Absolute bollocks , It’s the exact reverse

Every bit of current selling is just front-running the hike. When the Fed actually pulls the trigger on the 28th, there won’t be any fresh 'bad surprises'

History’s crystal clear: the biggest monster rallies in Bitcoin kick off after the market’s digested the hike, not before

Liquidity stops draining out, the dollar starts sliding back relative, and the institutions that quietly hoovered up the panic-selling pump the price up

​Warsh’s deliberate silence isn't weakness… it’s a tool to create temporary selling pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum so the big players can buy at cheaper prices

Anyone watching Warsh’s mouth is selling

Anyone watching the dots and the advance pricing , is buying right now before the stage is exposed

$SOL

#Fed #USGovernment #KevinWarshDisclosedCryptoInvestments #Market_Update

#USPPIRises6.3%YearOverYear

🏛️ The Fed Votes Before It Sees Its Favorite Inflation Gauge

📊 September PPI: +6.3% y/y and +1.3% m/m, the biggest yearly jump since Dec 2022 (BLS)
⛽ Energy producer prices +10.8% in one month, +35.6% vs a year ago
⚠️ Core PPI ex food, energy and trade: +5.0% y/y, so it's not only oil
📅 The FOMC decides Oct 28. September PCE data lands Oct 29, a day later
📈 Economists polled by CNBC see core PCE +0.32% m/m, about 3.1% y/y
🎯 October hike odds: about 13-14% on Kalshi and Polymarket, down from roughly 30% on PPI day

What it means for crypto: a hold would ease near-term pressure, but hot pipeline inflation keeps a December hike in play, and higher-for-longer rates have tended to weigh on risk assets. $BTC trades near $82K.

Hold in October, or a surprise hike? 👇

$BTC $ETH
#USPPIRises6.3%YearOverYear #CryptoNews #Fed #Macro

🚨 $14.6B IN FED TREASURY REINVESTMENTS… BULLISH FOR $BTC OR OVERHYPED?

The New York Fed plans around $14.6B in Treasury reinvestment purchases from Oct 15 to Nov 13

But here's the detail many headlines miss 👇

This is reinvesting money from maturing securities, NOT $14.6B in brand-new stimulus

I'm watching whether broader liquidity and risk appetite improve into November. If financial conditions become more supportive, crypto could benefit. But this operation alone doesn't guarantee a Bitcoin rally

Rates, the dollar and market positioning still matter

Are traders underestimating the liquidity story or is this headline getting overhyped? 🤔

#BTC #market #FED

🇺🇸 HUGE: The Fed schedules up to $14.612 BILLION in Treasury-bill reinvestment purchases, starting October 19.

Five operations run through November 9, with the final settlement on November 10.

#Crypto #Fed

🚨📉 BREAKING: FED RATE HIKE ODDS DROP TO 17% — IS BITCOIN READY FOR A BULLISH MOVE? 📈🔥

⚡ A major shift in market expectations!

The probability of another 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in October has reportedly fallen to just 17%, while the odds of rates remaining unchanged have climbed to 83%.

👀 What does this mean for the crypto market?

💰 Potential relief for Bitcoin: Lower expectations for rate hikes could support risk assets like Bitcoin ($BTC ) and altcoins by easing pressure on financial markets.

📊 Liquidity matters: If monetary conditions become more supportive, crypto could benefit. However, market direction will still depend on economic data, investor sentiment, and actual Fed decisions.

⚠️ Inflation remains a risk: A hotter-than-expected inflation report or hawkish Fed comments could quickly reverse market sentiment and trigger volatility.

🎯 Key event to watch: The October 27–28 FOMC meeting could provide important clues about the Fed’s next move.

🔥 Trader’s strategy: • Watch Bitcoin’s key support and resistance levels. • Avoid chasing sudden price movements. • Use proper stop-losses and manage leverage carefully.

💬 Your opinion: Is this the beginning of a bullish move for Bitcoin, or just a temporary relief before another market correction?

👇 Share your thoughts in the comments!

#BinanceSquare #Bitcoin #BTC #FederalReserve #Fed #CryptoMarket #TradingTips

📊 #OctoberFedHikeOddsFallToAround17% Market Noise vs. Macro Reality
The headline figure points to a 17% chance of an October Fed hike, but a deep dive into conflicting data feeds reveals a market struggling with mixed signals and macroeconomic friction.
Conflicting Hike Odds & Data Feeds
Barron's (Oct 16): Reported October hike odds at 33.8%, up slightly from 33.2% the previous day.
Eastmoney / Cailianshe (Oct 16): Estimated the October hold probability at 71.8% and hike probability at 28.2%.
InvestmentNews (Oct 14): Noted that after a hot core CPI print, October hike odds spiked to 51.5%—surging from 23.8% just one day prior.
Key Macro & Market Drivers
1. Stubborn Inflation September PPI came in at 6.3% annualized (vs. 5.3% expected), while Core PPI hit 5.0% (vs. 4.4% expected). This followed a hot CPI print the day before, challenging the prevailing "disinflation" narrative.
2. Bitcoin's Resilience: BTC briefly dipped below $80,000 following the hot PPI print—its lowest mark since September 18—before quickly recovering into the $82K zone. This reaction suggests the market was not heavily positioned for a hike surprise.
3. Institutional Capital Outflows:
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $261M in net outflows on October 14 and $262M the following day.
Ethereum ETFs shed $130M.
Solana ETFs extended their losing streak to 8 consecutive sessions.
⚠️ Outlook & What to Watch
The 17% headline probability appears outdated in light of recent hot inflation prints. While Bitcoin holding the $80K support level shows solid underlying demand, broader risk assets remain vulnerable.
Next Catalyst: Keep a close eye on the 10-year Treasury yield. A breakout higher will likely increase pressure across crypto and traditional risk markets alike.
#CPIWatch #Fed #Bitcoin $BTC

JUST IN: Bitcoin steadied near $82,000 as South Korean stocks rebounded 2% and Fed rate hike expectations eased.
October hike odds fell to 15% from 27% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided signaling further increases.
#Bitcoin #Fed #BitcoinShortTermHoldersReach4.08MBTC $BTC $NVDAB $SPCXB


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$BTC steadied near $82,000 as South Korean stocks rebounded 2% and expectations for a Fed rate hike eased.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided signaling further hikes, with October hike odds falling to 15% from 27% a day earlier.

Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5.13% as US stocks traded mixed.

#Bitcoin #Fed

​🚨 WHY THE FED BLACKOUT MATTERS (OCT 17–29)

​The Fed goes silent tonight ahead of the Oct 27–28 FOMC rate decision.

​🔹 No Fed Guidance: Zero policy speeches for 12 days.

🔹 Raw Data Driver: Markets trade purely on incoming economic prints.

🔹 Volatility Spike: Thinner liquidity means sharper liquidations on leverage.

​💡 Keep stop-losses tight as macro volatility ramps up!

​#Fed $BTC

The #Fed is no longer expected to hike rates this month. 👀

The odds of a rate hike have dropped to just 13%.

This is a positive sign for crypto, as no rate hike means less pressure on the market.

🇺🇸 KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH’S SPEECH TODAY:

• The Fed remains committed to bringing inflation under control.

• Inflation continues to be a major challenge.

• Warsh refuses to give any hints about upcoming interest rate decisions.

• Strong investment is helping drive U.S. economic growth.

• The global economy is proving more resilient than expected.

• Warsh is extremely bullish on AI, expecting it to boost productivity and economic growth.

• However, AI’s short-term impact on jobs remains uncertain.

#Fed #AI #US

Expectations for an October Fed rate hold strengthen after Warsh’s remarks

🏦 Speaking with the IMF in Bangkok on October 16, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to price stability but offered no guidance on the next rate decision. He recalled September’s hike and said he would not prejudge the remaining meetings this year.

📉 After his remarks, market odds of a rate hike at the October 27–28 meeting fell from around 27% to below 15%. The dollar weakened while S&P 500 futures edged higher as expectations for unchanged rates strengthened.

⚖️ This does not amount to a Fed commitment to hold rates. Warsh noted that an investment surge, including AI spending, is boosting demand and putting upward pressure on prices in the near term, keeping inflation risks in focus.

#Fed $TRX

❓ Is the Fed done hiking? $BTC traders now think so
✅ Warsh gave no October hike hint in Bangkok today
✅ Oct 28 hike odds fell from ~27% to ~15% (FT)
⚠️ His words: the Fed doesn't "prejudge meetings"
⚠️ BTC tagged $82,941, got rejected at the 1H 200 EMA
• Now $82,104 (+1.5%); top gainer $TIA +32%
🎯 My take: 1H close over $82.9K → $84.35K; under $81.7K = range again
💬 Pause in October, or one more hike? 👇
#Fed #Warsh #Bitcoin

#OctoberFedHikeOddsFallToAround17%

🇺🇸 Warsh Stays Quiet, Fed Hike Bets Fade

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on Friday and gave no hint on the next move.

🗣️ "I don't prejudge meetings," he said, adding the Fed is no longer in the forward guidance business
📉 Odds of an October hike fell from about 28% to around 15-17%
📅 The Fed meets Oct 27-28, after raising rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, its first hike since 2023
⚠️ Inflation is still hot: September CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3% y/y
🏦 Goldman now expects a pause in October and a final hike in December

BTC trades near $82.3K, up ~1.6% in 24h.

What it means for crypto: a likely October pause eases near-term pressure on risk assets, but a December hike is still priced in, so rate risk hasn't gone away.

Pause in October, then hike in December, or no more hikes at all? 👇

$BTC $ETH
#CryptoNews #Fed #Macro #OctoberFedHikeOddsFallToAround17%

​🚨 FED BLACKOUT BEGINS (OCT 17–29)!!!

​The Fed goes silent ahead of the Oct 27–28 rate decision.

​🔹️ No Fed Speeches: Markets trade strictly on raw data.

🔹️ Rate Odds: Low chance of an October rate hike.

🔹️ US10Y Yields: Pulling back toward 5.06%, easing pressure on $BTC

​⚠️ Trader Note: Expect lower liquidity and sharper sudden volatility spikes. #Fed

Speaking at the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that G20 economies have shown surprising resilience amid tightening cycles and geopolitical headwinds. He expressed strong confidence that the US economy will emerge even stronger and continue driving global expansion.

This optimistic assessment from the Fed Chair signals that monetary leadership remains unconcerned about an imminent domestic recession. Consequently, this resilience gives the central bank greater leeway to sustain restrictive monetary conditions without fearing immediate economic damage.

For broader financial markets, Warsh's firm stance reinforces expectations of higher-for-longer benchmark yields and provides underlying support for the US dollar. Traditional equities and debt instruments may face persistent valuation pressure as aggressive easing hopes are pushed further out.

In the digital asset space, durable macroeconomic strength presents a double-edged sword for $BTC and altcoins. While sustained economic activity limits liquidity panic, prolonged high cost of capital dampens aggressive risk-taking across crypto markets in the near term.

#Fed #KevinWarsh #MacroEconomics

⏰ WARSH SPEAKS IN LESS THAN 1 HOUR (03:30 UTC)

The most important Fed event after CPI and PPI 👇

🇺🇸 Why it matters:
🔹️CPI: 3.7% (hotter than expected)
🔹️PPI: 6.3% YoY (much hotter than expected)
🔹️UBS expects two more Fed rate hikes ahead.
🔹️🛢️ Brent crude is above $105 on Middle East tensions, adding to inflation fears.

#Fed $BTC

WARSH SPEAKS: NO CLEAR HIKE SIGNAL
Fed chair at the IMF!!!

"Remaining meetings this year will bring greater clarity" on policy.

He didn't confirm or rule out a hike on Oct 27-28. No clear signal means more volatility and price follows data.

Fed media blackout starts Saturday.

#Warsh #Fed $ETH

🚨 INFLATION IS PUTTING CRYPTO UNDER PRESSURE
U.S. inflation is showing fresh signs of strength, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position.
Hotter inflation data has increased concerns that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer — or even consider another rate hike.
That matters for Bitcoin and crypto because higher rates usually make risky assets less attractive.
Bitcoin has already come under pressure, while nearly $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated during the recent sell-off.
The big question now:
Will the Fed stay cautious, or will inflation force a tougher stance?
📉 Higher rates → stronger pressure on risk assets
📈 Softer inflation → potentially better conditions for crypto
What’s your take — Bullish or Bearish?
#bitcoin #crypto #Fed #Inflation #interestrates #Finance

According to the latest data from CME FedWatch, market pricing indicates a 71.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady through October, with a 28.2% chance of a 25 bps hike. Looking ahead to December, the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged drops to just 7.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bps hike rises to 67.4% and a 50 bps hike stands at 25.4%.

This pricing structure highlights growing market conviction that policy tightening is far from over this year. Investors are increasingly accepting that any brief pause in the near term will merely be a pitstop before another rate hike before year-end.

Across traditional finance, these shifting probabilities keep upward pressure on Treasury yields and support the US dollar. Risk assets face persistent headwinds as extended monetary tightening diminishes expectations for liquidity relief in the fourth quarter.

For the crypto market, this sustained higher-for-longer outlook presents a challenge for speculative momentum and altcoin expansion. $BTC and the broader digital asset space may experience prolonged consolidation until clearer macroeconomic signals emerge. 📊

#Fed #InterestRates #MacroEconomics