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U.S. inflation data due next week will be closely watched as investors assess whether persistent price pressures could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December. However, growing concerns over the AI investment boom and its potential impact on economic growth add uncertainty to the policy outlook.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday, November 10. The data will be followed by October's Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Friday, as well as speeches from Fed officials.
According to a market analysis published by Seeking Alpha, consensus expectations point to a 0.3% monthly increase in headline CPI and a 0.2% rise in core CPI, excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation is expected to remain at 3.7%, while core inflation could ease to 2.5% from 2.6% in September.
However, recent economic surveys suggest inflation could come in hotter than expected. October's ISM Manufacturing and Services Prices Paid indexes both stood at 73, indicating persistent cost pressures across the two sectors. S&P Global's October PMI surveys also showed that selling prices for goods and services rose at their fastest pace since August 2022.
Businesses cited higher energy and fuel costs, tariffs, raw material shortages, freight expenses and wages as contributing factors.
Housing inflation is another area to watch. According to Zillow's latest forecast, annual rent inflation could reach approximately 3.1% by the end of 2026, while owners' equivalent rent could approach 3.4%. The stabilization and potential recovery in rents could limit further declines in shelter inflation.
December Rate Hike Expectations
Stronger inflation and recent employment data have strengthened expectations for another Fed rate increase. According to LSEG data cited by Dow Jones Newswires on November 6, money markets were pricing in a 75% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's December 9 meeting.
Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, said that without a significant downside surprise in the October CPI report or the November jobs report due December 4, a December rate hike could become almost fully priced in before the meeting.
ING analysts also expect both headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% month over month in October, a reading that could further support the case for tighter monetary policy.
AI Investment Risks Add to Market Uncertainty
Despite the renewed focus on inflation, the outlook for technology investment could also influence market expectations for Fed policy.
In a November 6 analysis, Seeking Alpha contributor Damir Tokic argued that concerns over a potential AI investment bubble could eventually outweigh backward-looking inflation data. He pointed to credit concerns surrounding CoreWeave and developments in China's semiconductor industry as signs of growing pressure on the sector.
A broader pullback in AI infrastructure spending could weigh on business investment and economic growth, potentially increasing recession risks and shifting the Fed's attention toward monetary easing.
For now, however, the October CPI report remains a key near-term catalyst. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of a December rate hike, while weaker data may ease pressure on the Fed. Investors will also monitor energy prices and developments in the AI sector as they assess the outlook for equities, bonds and cryptocurrencies.