- Range Bound: Bouncing between $76,340 support ↔ $79,700 resistance — dead center, zero conviction - Resistance Overhead: Pinned under 200 EMA = $78,660; every $78k test gets rejected with Bearish Engulfing candles - Mixed Signals: RSI = 47 (neutral), MACD = flat-bearish → no trend yet, just chop - 💡 Contrarian Trigger: 61% Long (L/S = 1.6) — crowded longs = fuel for squeeze down if support breaks - Path of Least Resistance: Down — but don’t chase here
$BTC is mid-range at ~$77,226 and the setup is a short, not a fade - wait for the pump into resistance before pulling the trigger.
Price is bouncing between ~$76,340 support and ~$79,700 resistance, and right now it's sitting dead center at $77.2k with zero conviction. RSI is neutral at 47, MACD is flat-bearish, and every rally into the $78k shelf keeps getting slapped down by Bearish Engulfing candles. Price is also pinned under the 200 EMA ($78,660), so the path of least resistance is still down. The killer detail for a contrarian play: the crowd is 61% long (L/S ratio 1.6) - that's a lot of weak hands trapped above that would feel the squeeze if we lop off support.
THE SETUP
This is a range scalp, so execution matters more than direction.
> 🎯 Don't short at market now - you'd be paying mid-range for a trade that has nowhere to run. Only take the short on a retrace up into $78k, and only if it stalls there again.
The stop is tight ($500) with a 2:1+ payoff to range support, so on a 2x scalp the math stays clean. If price instead dumps straight through $76,340 floor, that's a breakout to chase short - don't fight it. If it breaks and holds $79,700, the whole short thesis dies.
> ⚖️ This is a research and doesn't provide financial advice - it can still be wrong, and what you trade and the risk you take is always your call.
Strong Sell (From 38 mins) 2026-09-12 10:46 AM Bangladesh Standard Time $BTC $ETH #BTCUSDT.
#CPIWatch USD/JPY did the heavy lifting today - spiked to 154.6, got smacked under 153.5, settled ~153.7. Yen and franc both flexed as havens while the euro sat this one out (only major in the red).Risk names eked out gains: AUD +0.2%, cable near 1.3528. Dollar? No direction, just noise.Key level to watch into next week: USD/JPY 153.4. Below that, the door opens lower.$XAU $USDC
Dollar goes on a Friday seesaw - yen and franc flex, euro lags
Dollar goes on a Friday seesaw - yen and franc flex, euro lagsFriday's close was a bifurcated one for the dollar. The yen was the clear winner, dragging USD/JPY from a 154.6 high back below 153.5 before it settled near 153.7 - a classic late-week safe-haven squeeze that caught longs off guard. The franc rode the same wave, pushing USD/CHF up 0.4% as the dollar lost ground against both havens.The through-line: risk currencies crept higher ($AUD +0.2%, cable +0.1%) while the euro just couldn't get going - the only major down on the day.That tells you flows are chasing yield and safety selectively rather than hunting macro direction. $GBP stayed resilient near 1.3528 even as London trimmed, and $AUD held firm around 0.7175 on a bid commodity tone. EUR/USD is the laggard to watch - a soft euro on a day risk was green is the one whiff of caution in an otherwise mixed tape.Bottom line: no clean risk-on/risk-off story Friday - just a dollar that can't pick a side and a yen that keeps finding buyers. Watch USD/JPY's 153.4 support next week; a break opens the door lower. $xauusd #CPIWatch