The Fear & Greed Index Says "Fear." On-Chain Data Says Something Different.
The Fear Story Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. It touched a 21-month low near $57,800 on July 1st, closed June down nearly 20%, and posted its first weekly close below the 200-week moving average in three years — a technical line that has historically marked cycle bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022. The Fear & Greed Index currently reads 27 — solidly in "Fear" territory, though notably not the deeper "Extreme Fear" readings seen in past capitulation events. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record 4 billion in monthly outflows in June. #Coinbase Premium — the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase versus #Binance — has stayed negative for fifty straight days, signaling persistently weak US demand relative to the rest of the world.