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Announcement: The initial jobless claims data from the United States for last week will be released tonight, with an expected 212,000 people. The analysis will be officially announced by the U.S. Department of Labor at 21:30 Beijing time.

1. Core Expectations and Reference Data
Market Expectation: 212,000 people
Previous Value (week of January 24): 209,000 people, decreased by 1,000 from the revised previous value (210,000 people)

2. Logic of Data Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

1. Data Interpretation Framework
Below Expectation (<212,000): Labor market resilience exceeds expectations, reinforcing the "high interest rates will last longer" outlook, bearish for cryptocurrencies (increased expectation of liquidity tightening)

As Expected (210,000-214,000): Limited market reaction, maintaining existing trends, focusing on subsequent non-farm data posts

Above Expectation (>214,000): Signals of labor market cooling, earlier expectations of interest rate cuts, bullish for cryptocurrencies (increased expectation of liquidity easing)

2. Interaction Mechanism with the Cryptocurrency Market

Federal Reserve Policy Transmission: Employment Data → Inflation Expectations → Monetary Policy → Liquidity → Cryptocurrency Asset Prices

Changes in Risk Appetite: Data exceeding expectations deteriorates → Economic recession concerns → Increased risk aversion sentiment → Short-term bearish risk assets; but may also accelerate expectations of interest rate cuts, forming long-term bullishness

Historical Patterns: Initial jobless claims exceeding 230,000 are typically seen as significant signals of labor market cooling, historically triggering severe fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market

3. Considering Recent Market Environment

The previous day's (February 4) announcement of U.S. January ADP employment increased by only 22,000 people, far below the expected 48,000, indicating that the employment market may be cooling

The current cryptocurrency market is in an extreme fear range, with heightened sensitivity to macro data. Data exceeding expectations may trigger intraday fluctuations of 5-8% in mainstream coins like BTC/ETH.

3. Trading Strategy Recommendations (for tonight's data)

Adjust positions before 21:25, reduce leverage, avoid high-risk contracts
Set stop-loss / take-profit at key price levels

Response after Data Release:

Better than Expected (<208,000): Gradually reduce positions in mainstream coins, wait for a pullback to support levels before considering entry

As Expected (210,000-214,000): Mainly observe, maintain existing position structure, focus on changes in trading volume

Worse than Expected (>216,000): Slightly increase positions in core assets (BTC/ETH), set stop-loss below support level by 5%.

$BTC
The weekly chart shows signs of a bottom divergence, so it's advisable to open a small position first! As the saying goes, 'No pain, no gain!'