1. Core market overview (as of February 28, 13:00 Beijing time)

- Bitcoin (BTC): Spot price around $65600, 24-hour drop of 2.1%, with a daily low of $64900, marking the fifth consecutive month of monthly declines since October 2025, with a monthly drop of over 8%.

- Ethereum (ETH): Spot price around $1930, 24-hour drop of 3.8%, after a single-day drop of over 5% on Friday, it fell below the key psychological level of $2000, with a daily low of $1890.

- Overall market: The total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies is approximately $2.35 trillion, with a 24-hour drop of 2.2% and a total trading volume of $10.49 billion; BTC's market share is 56.1%, ETH's market share is 9.92%, and market funds continue to concentrate on leading mainstream coins, while altcoins generally experience larger declines.

- Market Sentiment: The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index reports 11, in the extreme fear range, continuing to decline from yesterday, with panic spreading in the market.

- Contract market: In the past 24 hours, the total amount of liquidation in the entire network has exceeded 320 million USD, with long positions accounting for over 75%. The leverage effect during the decline is evident.

2. The core driving factors of this round of market decline

1. The macro environment continues to suppress, and risk appetite has significantly declined.

The U.S. January PPI data exceeded expectations, combined with strong previous non-farm and CPI data, the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been significantly delayed, and there has even been hawkish pricing for rate hikes within the year, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.06%. All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, tech stocks weakened, and global risk assets were generally under pressure, with cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, suffering the brunt of the sell-off.

2. Institutional funds continue to flow out, with ETFs shifting from incremental engines to sources of selling pressure.

The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen continuous net outflows for several months, with the outflow scale reaching 3.5 billion USD in January 2026, a new high in nearly a year. Over the past four weeks, global crypto ETFs have cumulatively seen outflows exceeding 3.7 billion USD. Institutions like Harvard University reduced their Bitcoin holdings by 21% in early February, showing a clear retreat from risk by institutions, with the market lacking incremental funds for entry, and selling pressure continuing to be released under existing game conditions.

3. Technical breakdown + liquidity shrinkage, forming a negative cycle

BTC and ETH have successively broken key support levels, triggering programmed trading stop losses and forced liquidations, forming a 'downward → liquidation → forced selling → exacerbated decline' death spiral. Meanwhile, market liquidity has significantly shrunk over the weekend, where a small amount of selling can trigger significant price fluctuations, further amplifying the extent of the market decline.

4. The belief in underlying assets has shaken, and long-term allocation logic has been impacted.

Previously, the U.S. Department of Justice confiscated a large amount of Bitcoin through 'technological theft + judicial packaging,' continuously impacting the market's core beliefs in the 'decentralized security' and 'asset sovereignty' of crypto assets, leading to a reconstruction of risk pricing in crypto assets and a significant decrease in institutional willingness to enter long-term capital.

3. Key technical points for mainstream coins

Bitcoin (BTC)

- Core support level: First support at 64500-65000 USD (intraday low + previous oscillation box lower edge), strong support at 62500 USD (key level of this round of downward trend, breaking below will open new downward space).

- Core resistance level: First resistance at 67000 USD (four-hour level middle track + recent oscillation box upper edge), strong resistance at 68000-70000 USD (daily level bullish-bearish watershed, breaking through previous levels does not indicate a trend reversal).

- Technical pattern: Daily level is in a downward channel, MACD bearish momentum continues, and prices are running in the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands; four-hour level has no volume rebound, rebound momentum is extremely weak, and short-term is very likely to maintain a weak oscillating pattern.

Ethereum (ETH)

- Core support level: First support at 1870-1900 USD (intraday low + previous transaction dense area), strong support at 1800 USD (key level of this round of decline, breaking below will accelerate the downward probe).

- Core resistance level: First resistance at 2000 USD (psychological barrier + four-hour middle track), strong resistance at 2080-2100 USD (daily level pressure densely packed area, breaking through the previous bearish trend).

- Technical pattern: After breaking the key level of 2000 USD at the daily level, the bearish trend is clear, weaker than BTC's performance; at the four-hour level, MACD bullish momentum is insufficient, and the probability of rebound facing resistance is high.

4. Type-based operation suggestions

1. Spot investors

- Conservative (long-term allocation): Currently, there is no clear stabilization signal, and it is not recommended to blindly catch the bottom. Maintain a low position of no more than 30%. If BTC retreats to around 62500 USD and the market shows a volume increase stop signal, small amounts can be gradually allocated, prioritizing BTC and other major mainstream coins while avoiding altcoins.

- Short-term traders: Liquidity is poor over the weekend, and volatility is highly uncertain. It is recommended to mainly observe and not rush to open positions. If BTC shows stable volume in the range of 64500-65000 USD, a small long position can be tried with a stop loss set below 64000 USD and a target near 67000 USD; if it rebounds and meets resistance near 67000 USD, a small short position can be laid out with a stop loss at 67800 USD and a target near 65000 USD.

2. Contract traders

- Strictly control positions, with single product positions not exceeding 10% and total positions not exceeding 20%. Avoid high-leverage operations, as insufficient liquidity over the weekend can easily trigger sharp price movements. Stop losses must be strictly adhered to.

- Prioritize focusing on range oscillation operations during the day, BTC core operation range 64500-67000 USD, ETH core operation range 1900-2000 USD, buy high and sell low within the range, and follow the trend after breaking the range, without going against the trend.

3. General risk control principles

- Abandon the obsession with 'catching the bottom and topping,' the current market is in a downward trend, and a trend reversal requires time and confirmation of volume; do not blindly judge the bottom due to a short-term slight rebound.

- Prioritize avoiding small coins and altcoins; during the bear market cycle, funds continue to concentrate on the top, and non-mainstream coins have extremely high liquidity and zero risks.

- Manage positions well, reserve sufficient cash reserves to cope with extreme market conditions, and do not enter the market with full positions all at once.

5. Risk warning

The cryptocurrency market is a high-risk investment variety, affected by multiple factors such as macro policies, regulatory trends, and market sentiment, with significant price volatility. This analysis is merely for market information sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should make rational decisions based on their own risk tolerance, strictly manage stop losses, and take on investment risks independently.