Key conclusion: Today's market continues to decline unilaterally, BTC has broken through the key support at 73000, ETH has reached a 9-month low, the bearish trend is clear, institutional funds continue to flow out, and there are no obvious signals of a rebound in the short term. It is recommended to strictly control positions (<5%), use zero leverage, and mainly observe, waiting for stabilization in the 71000-70000 range or considering trial positions after the 21:30 initial unemployment claims data exceeds expectations.
1. Overview of core market data
BTC current price 71500 24h change -6% Key support: 71,000→70,000→68,000
Key resistance: 73,500→74,800→76,800 Sentiment indicator: Fear index 18
ETH current price 2130 24h change -5.2% Key support: 2,070→2,050→2,000
Key pressure: 2,200→2,250→2,300 Emotion indicator: fear index 18
Two, breakdown of core driving factors of decline
1. Macroeconomic level: Federal Reserve policy expectations have completely reversed
The market has adjusted from 'rate cuts in March' to 'no rate cuts for the whole of 2026', and even expectations for rate hikes have emerged
Tonight at 21:30, the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31 in the US will be announced, with market expectations of 212,000 people, previous value of 209,000 people
Yesterday's ADP employment data increased by only 22,000 (expected 48,000), but failed to reverse the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations, instead triggering dual worries of 'economic recession + high interest rates'
2. Institutional level: ETF continues to flow out, whales reduce holdings
The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow for 12 consecutive days, with total withdrawals exceeding 4.8 billion USD, BlackRock IBIT had a highest single-day outflow of 528 million USD
Whale addresses holding over 1000 BTC reduced holdings by 23,000 in January (-12%) and transferred a large amount of BTC to exchanges in preparation for sale
Market makers collectively withdraw orders during volatility spikes, leading to a market depth drop of over 32%, amplifying price fluctuations
3. Technical level: multiple breakouts, forming a downward resonance
BTC daily line continuously closes with a bearish candle, breaking below the lower edge of the previous fluctuation range at 74000, forming a 'lower low, lower high' standard bearish pattern
ETH on the 4-hour chart shows a descending flag pattern, RSI is oversold but lacks effective volume support, which is a continuation signal rather than a reversal signal
Most altcoins have broken below the upward trend line since the initiation in November 2024, and the technical aspect has deteriorated overall
4. Market sentiment: fear dominates, obvious stampede effect
Fear and greed index fell to 18 (extreme fear), reaching the lowest level since October 2025
High leverage long positions across the network continuously trigger forced liquidation, forming a 'decline → liquidation → further decline' death spiral
Social media 'bear market has arrived' and other pessimistic remarks spread, leading to intensified panic selling among retail investors
Three, in-depth analysis of technical aspects
BTC technical analysis
Daily line level: breaking below MA50 (74,200) and MA100 (73,800) double moving average support, MACD dead cross downward, bearish momentum strong
4-hour level: Vegas double channel opening downward pressure, rebound highs keep decreasing, typical bearish trend characteristics
Key level:
First support: 71,000 USD (platform for market initiation in November 2024)
Second support: 70,000 USD (psychological level + previous fluctuation low)
Third support: 68,000 USD (strong support, if broken may accelerate to 65,000)
First pressure: 73,500 USD (MA50 + previous support turned pressure)
Second pressure: 74,800 USD (MA100 + downward gap)
ETH technical analysis
Daily line level: breaking below the key support level of 2200, creating a 9-month new low, bearish trend established
4-hour level: descending flag pattern, RSI=32 (oversold) but no obvious bottom divergence, weak rebound
Key level:
First support: 2070 USD (today's low)
Second support: 2050 USD (strong support, if broken may test the 2000 round number)
First pressure: 2200 USD (previous support turned pressure)
Second pressure: 2250 USD (MA50)
Four, trading strategy suggestions (by type of investor)
1. Short-term traders (intraday / 1-3 days)
Core strategy: mainly wait and see, cautiously short, quick in and out
Entry conditions:
BTC rebounded to the range of 73,500-74,000 and when there is a significant volume stagnation, a light short position can be taken (position ≤2%)
ETH rebounded to the 2200-2220 range and when there is a significant volume stagnation, a light short position can be taken (position ≤2%)
Stop-loss setting: above BTC 74,800, above ETH 2250
Take profit target: BTC 71,500→71,000, ETH 2100→2070
Risk warning: tonight at 21:30 initial jobless claims data may trigger violent fluctuations, avoid opening positions within 15 minutes before and after the data is released
2. Medium-term investors (1-4 weeks)
Core strategy: wait for stabilization signals, build positions in batches, strictly control positions
Entry conditions:
BTC gets support in the 70,000-71,000 range, and there is a 4-hour level bottom divergence + bullish candle with significant volume
ETH gets support in the 2050-2070 range, and there is a 4-hour level bottom divergence + bullish candle with significant volume
Position building plan:
First order: build positions at 2% when stabilized
Second order: add 2% when retesting support confirmed
Third order: add 3% when breaking through the pressure level of 74,800 (BTC)/2250 (ETH)
Total position control: ≤7%, avoid full position bottom fishing
Stop-loss setting: below BTC 69,000, below ETH 2000
3. Long-term investors (1-6 months)
Core strategy: build positions on dips, focus on regular investment, ignore short-term fluctuations
Entry suggestions:
BTC invests 1% for every 5% drop (e.g., 72,000→68,400→64,980)
ETH invests 1% for every 5% drop (e.g., 2,120→2,014→1,913)
Key focus: February 6 speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which may release key policy signals
Risk control: total position ≤30%, retain 70% cash waiting for the best entry point
4. Risk aversion suggestions (applicable to all investors)
Zero leverage principle: current volatility is extremely high, leveraged trading may lead to instant liquidation, it is recommended that all investors temporarily stay away from leverage
Position control: single variety position ≤10%, total position ≤30%, reserve sufficient cash to cope with further declines
Avoid bottom fishing: do not rush to bottom fish before clear stop-loss signals (bullish candles + bottom divergence + capital inflow) appear
Pay attention to on-chain data: track whale address deposit and withdrawal behaviors and ETF capital flows, provide early warnings for large capital movements
Five, tonight's initial jobless claims data trading plan
Data result: below expectations (<208,000) Market reaction: negative for cryptocurrencies, may further decline
Trading strategy: wait and see or short on rebound, target BTC 71,000, ETH 2070
In line with expectations (210,000-214,000) Market reaction: limited response, maintaining fluctuations
Trading strategy: mainly wait and see, waiting for the market to choose direction
Above expectations (>216,000) Market reaction: positive for cryptocurrencies, may rebound
Trading strategy: light position for long, BTC 72,000-72,500, ETH 2120-2150, stop-loss set 5% below support level
Six, market bottom signal monitoring checklist
Price signal: BTC gets support at key support levels (70,000 or 68,000) and a bullish candle with significant volume appears (trading volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the last 20 days)
Technical signal: clear bottom divergence appears at the 4-hour level (RSI+MACD), and the rebound breaks through the downward trend line
Capital signal: ETF capital flow turns from negative to positive, whale addresses stop reducing holdings and start increasing
Sentiment signal: fear and greed index has risen for 3 consecutive days, breaking through 25
Liquidation signal: total liquidation amount across the network has significantly decreased, long and short ratios have returned to balance
Summary and action guide
Today's cryptocurrency market is in a bearish dominant downward trend, institutional capital continues to flow out, the technical aspect fully breaks, and market sentiment is extremely fearful. The most likely short-term trend is to fluctuate in the range of 71,000-73,500, waiting for tonight's initial jobless claims data and tomorrow's Powell speech for direction.
