1. Today's Core Market Overview (As of Beijing Time 13:00)
The market has pulled back from yesterday's highs, entering a profit-taking and cautious adjustment period ahead of data releases, with mainstream cryptocurrencies weakening in sync and trading volume moderately increasing.
- Bitcoin (BTC): Current price $70,850, 24-hour decline of 3.2%. After reaching a high of $74,000 yesterday, it closed with a long upper shadow and is currently repeatedly testing the $70,000 level.
- Ethereum (ETH): Current price $2,065, 24-hour decline of 2.9%, following BTC's pullback, with a low of $2,054, weakly fluctuating in the $2,050-$2,100 range.
- Overall Market: Total market capitalization shrank by 1.6%, and the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 10 (Extreme Fear); cryptocurrency concept stocks also adjusted, with Coinbase dropping over 4% during the day; institutional fund inflows have slowed, and spot ETF selling pressure has rebounded.
2. Today's core driving factors
1. Core bearish factors: Profit-taking + macro data suppression
- After yesterday's sharp rise, short-term indicators are severely overbought, profit-taking is concentrated, the daily long upper shadow confirms strong short-term selling pressure.
- Tonight at 21:30, the US February non-farm data will be released, and the market is concerned that employment data exceeding expectations will strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance, further cooling interest rate cut expectations, with funds withdrawing from risk assets in advance.
- Negotiations on the US crypto bill have stalled, and regulatory uncertainty suppresses market sentiment in the short term.
2. Potential support: Compliance process and capital rotation
- Hong Kong's first batch of stablecoin licenses is about to be issued, the EU MiCA regulation will take effect on March 25, and the long-term compliance logic remains unchanged.
- After the sharp decline in Korean stocks, some retail funds are shifting to the crypto market, providing a small amount of incremental liquidity.
- Ethereum staking ETF enters a critical approval period, ecological fundamentals (daily active addresses 837,200) still provide support.
3. Key risk points: Large unlocks and concentrated liquidation areas
- In March, the entire market will face approximately $6 billion in token unlocks, posing high short-term selling pressure risks.
- BTC $69,500-70,500 is a concentrated area for long liquidation, breaking below may trigger a chain liquidation, increasing volatility.
3. Key technical point analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Daily: Long upper shadow candle, breaking below the 5-day moving average, MACD red bars shrinking, bullish momentum significantly weakened, entering a short-term adjustment period.
- 4-hour: Bollinger Bands opening downward, price running below the middle track, RSI ≈ 42, bears hold short-term dominance.
- Key price levels: Resistance at $72,000-73,500 (5-day moving average + yesterday's fluctuation lower edge); Support at $70,000-70,500 (psychological level + concentrated liquidation area), strong support at $69,000-69,500 (EMA30).
Ethereum (ETH)
- Daily: Similarly, a long upper shadow candle, breaking below the 5-day moving average, MACD red bars shrinking, rebound momentum entering a bottleneck period.
- 4-hour: Bollinger Bands middle track forming suppression, price fluctuating around $2060, rebound lacking strength.
- Key price levels: Resistance at $2100-2130 (round number + middle track); Support at $2050-2060 (yesterday's low), strong support at $2000 (psychological level).
4. Type-based operation suggestions
Spot investors
- Position holders: Immediately reduce positions by 1/3-1/2, move stop loss to $69,500 (BTC)/$2000 (ETH), lock in yesterday's gains; maintain base positions until strong support is breached, wait for non-farm data before adjusting.
- Non-position holders: Remain cautious before non-farm data, do not rush to bottom fish; if prices stabilize above $70,500 (BTC)/$2060 (ETH) after data release, can take small positions (not exceeding 10% of total funds) to go long, with strict stop loss.
Contract traders
- Focus on high selling and low buying within the day, do not chase highs or sell lows, reduce positions to light before non-farm data release.
- Long position: BTC stabilize at $70,000-70,500 with light positions, stop loss at $69,500, target at $71,500-72,000; ETH stabilize at $2050-2060 with light positions, stop loss at $2000, target at $2100-2130.
- Short position: BTC $72,000-73,500 facing resistance with light positions, stop loss at $74,000, target at $70,500-70,000; ETH $2100-2130 facing resistance with light positions, stop loss at $2150, target at $2060-2050.
- During the non-farm data release period: Suspend trading to avoid extreme volatility leading to liquidation.
General trading principles
1. Stay away from altcoins: Under the background of large unlocks, the selling pressure risk for small coins is extremely high, avoid bottom fishing and getting stuck.
2. Strictly control positions: Total positions should not exceed 30% of risk-capable funds, do not use leverage or borrowed funds.
3. Keep an eye on events: Focus on tonight's non-farm data and the White House crypto summit on March 7, and adjust strategies based on news.