- Total market value: $2.74 trillion, 24h -5.7%, evaporated about $111 billion
- Bitcoin (BTC): $78,700, 24h -6.5%, lowest reached $75,500 (new low since April 2025), dominance 59.13%
- Ethereum (ETH): $2,440, 24h -11.2%, lowest drop to $2,202
- Market sentiment: Extreme fear, a pattern of more killing more, over 420,000 people in the whole network have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $2.56 billion (long position liquidation $2.4 billion)
- Core focus: Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman (hawkish expectations rise), the dollar index strengthens, US tech stocks adjust, large-scale liquidation of leveraged funds in the crypto market
I. Core currency technical analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
- Price trend: A sudden cliff-like drop occurred in the early morning, breaking below the $80,000 key psychological level, forming a ‘breakout’ pattern, currently weakly oscillating in the $78,000-$79,000 range, with weak rebounds
- Key levels:
- Resistance: $79,500 → $80,500 → $82,000 (short-term strong resistance)
- Support: $76,000 → $75,000 → $72,000 (previously high transaction volume area)
- Technical indicators: Daily MACD dead cross moving down, RSI breaking below 30 entering the oversold zone, bearish momentum is strong; the 4-hour chart shows a weak structure of ‘downward - sideways - down again’
- On-chain data: Large funds flowing out of exchanges, long-term holders are beginning to reduce positions, market panic sentiment is spreading
Ethereum (ETH)
- Price trend: The drop far exceeds Bitcoin, breaking through key support levels of $2,500 and $2,400, with a minimum touching $2,202, showing an ‘accelerated decline’ trend
- Key levels:
- Resistance: $2,500 → $2,600 → $2,750
- Support: $2,300 → $2,200 → $2,100
- Technical indicators: Prices are far from moving averages, bearish arrangement is obvious, indicating huge selling pressure in the market
- Relative performance: ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen sharply, underperforming Bitcoin, mainly affected by capital outflows from Layer2 ecosystem and leveraged liquidations
II. Analysis of macro influencing factors
1. Waller’s nomination triggers hawkish expectations (core trigger)
- Trump has nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, and the market believes he will adopt more aggressive monetary policy to combat inflation
- Waller has publicly criticized loose policies, advocating for faster interest rate hikes, which has led to a significant cooling of market expectations for rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar index, and selling off assets like gold and crypto
2. U.S. stock technology stocks have retreated
- Nasdaq index fell by 2.3%, S&P 500 fell by 1.5%, technology stocks (especially MAG7) led the decline, and crypto concept stocks followed suit
- The market is worried about the bubble of overvalued assets bursting, and risk appetite is sharply declining
3. Large-scale liquidation of leveraged funds
- The leverage ratio in the crypto market is too high, when prices fall below key support levels, it triggers a large number of stop-loss and liquidation orders, forming a ‘cascading effect’
- Coinglass data shows that the proportion of long liquidations within 24 hours reached 93.7%, indicating that market sentiment was overly crowded before
4. Other factors:
- The risk of a U.S. government shutdown is rising, increasing market uncertainty
- Global crypto regulation is tightening, some institutions are beginning to reduce their positions early to avoid risks
III. Market hotspots and sector rotation
- Gainers: Only a few niche coins have risen, ZORA (+53.80%), zkSync (+12.3%), Frax (+8.7%), all are low market cap projects, lacking representativeness
- Decline list: Almost the entire market is in the red, SOL (-11.8%), DOGE (-10.5%), BNB (-8.7%), ADA (-8.2%) and other mainstream coins have seen significant declines
- Sector performance: All sectors have been heavily hit, with DeFi, NFT, Layer2 and other popular tracks generally dropping over 10%, and stablecoins becoming a safe haven for funds, with USDT premium rate rising
IV. Operational suggestions (based on investor types)
1. Short-term traders (day trading/swing trading)
- Core strategy: Mainly wait and see, cautiously short, avoid bottom fishing (currently no clear stop-loss signal)
- BTC strategy: Short positions can be taken lightly when rebounding to the $79,500-$80,000 range, with a stop-loss above $80,500, targeting $77,000-$76,000
- ETH strategy: Short positions can be taken lightly when rebounding to the $2,500-$2,550 range, with a stop-loss above $2,600, targeting $2,350-$2,300
- Risk warning: Market volatility is severe, strictly control positions (not exceeding 20%), set trailing stop-loss, and avoid counter-trend operations
2. Medium-term investors (holding 1-4 weeks)
- Core strategy: Be patient and wait, do not rush to bottom fish, wait for clear stop-loss signals
- Entry conditions: BTC daily line closes with a ‘bullish engulfing’ pattern and increased trading volume, or stabilizes and rebounds after probing $75,000; ETH needs to hold above $2,400 and break through $2,500
- Position management: Currently maintain 60%-70% stablecoins, 30%-40% spot (quality blue chips), build positions in batches, avoiding full allocation at once
3. Long-term investors (holding for over 1 year)
- Core strategy: Accumulate during large drops, focusing on the long-term value of quality assets (BTC, ETH, BNB)
- Accumulation range: When BTC pulls back to the $72,000-$75,000 range, and ETH pulls back to the $2,100-$2,200 range, consider accumulating once every 5% drop
- Risk hedging: Allocate 20%-30% stablecoins to cope with extreme market conditions, avoiding long-term investment plans being affected by short-term fluctuations
V. Risk warning
1. Macro risk: If Waller’s nomination is approved, the Federal Reserve's policy may tighten more than expected, further suppressing the prices of risk assets
2. Technical risk: If BTC falls below $75,000, it may trigger a new round of declines, targeting $70,000; if ETH falls below $2,200, it may accelerate downward to the $2,000 level
3. Liquidity risk: Market panic may lead to ‘liquidity exhaustion’, causing inability to close positions in time, exacerbating losses
4. Operational risk: Avoid ‘bottom-fishing thinking’ and ‘betting on rebounds’ mindset, strictly enforce stop-loss discipline, and control leverage usage (recommended not to exceed 3 times)
