潮生万利

Sanhe’s so-called “Michelin restaurant”: the average spend is a whopping 194. Since we booked through a group deal, we weren’t allowed into a private room and had to eat in the noisy dining hall. A 194 meal paired with fake Conti for 158—nothing wrong there. The owner read the comments below about the dentist and spent all night wondering what the problem was～

Regarding the fake liquor incident, I’m on Sanhe’s side. Here are nine reasons:

1. The liquor was fake, but the bottles were real. They cost 158 each on PDD, and buying four at once still set me back 600!

2. After spending 600 on the bottles, I had to put some fake liquor in them, right? There’s no way I’d use the 9.9-a-bottle stuff. It had to be at least 19.9 a bottle. That brings the cost of four bottles to 600 + 19.9 × 4 = 679.6!

3. You can’t just hire someone else to do the counterfeiting; you have to get your hands dirty yourself. Filling the bottles, sealing them, wrapping them in cling film, cleaning up the stains—the whole process takes at least two and a half hours! In those two and a half hours, I could’ve been livestreaming and fleecing retail investors for two jin of chives, earning at least 9.9U. So the total cost comes to 679.6 (fake liquor) + 9.9U × 6.6 (opportunity cost) = 744.94!

4. As for playing both sides: I told @天晴ETH that @Btc星辰 , Ao Ying, and Maomao would come; I told Xingchen that Tianqing, Ao Ying, and Maomao would come; and I told Ao Ying and Maomao that Tianqing and Xingchen would come back. The truth is, if I didn’t go back and forth like that, none of them would give me the time of day! If nobody showed up, I’d be stuck with hundreds of yuan worth of fake liquor!

5. About the shoes @玺九爺HBJX gave me: everyone says they cost over 8,000, which is like saying Lord Xi Jiu paid for everyone’s night out. But I asked the store, and they only allow exchanges, not refunds. In other words, I can’t turn these shoes into cash; I can only wear them myself. I usually wear shoes that cost 99 a pair, so all I’ve really saved is 99 yuan—basically the price of a cake. (The cake was 119 on Meituan; I used a 30-yuan voucher, so I actually paid 89.)

6. The dentist thing was purely an accident. I was just being polite; I didn’t expect this bastard to come bouncing right over. Even worse, as soon as he arrived, he started chugging the fake liquor. He only had himself to blame for ending up getting his stomach pumped. Luckily, fake liquor only damages the stomach, not the brain. If it damaged the brain, the odds of this bastard leading everyone into liquidation wouldn’t be 100%—they’d be 1,000%!

7. As for Big Brother Tianqing getting conned by me into picking up a bill of over 100,000, sure, I did him dirty—but really, I was teaching him a lesson. In Big Brother’s eyes, I’m a nobody. He was paying out of respect for Tianqing; he’ll only hold Tianqing responsible for that bill. Next time Tianqing introduces him to a friend, Big Brother will just put a question mark next to it. Tianqing’s the one who gets hurt, not me!

In conclusion, Sanhe won this whole game!

Thanks, Shenhe, for treating the guys to fake liquor. Real booze may be expensive, but fake stuff gets you wasted—that’s the whole point of drinking, isn’t it? What’s the point if it doesn’t get you wasted? If it doesn’t, how would you end up in the hospital? That’s where real liquor just can’t compete with the fake stuff. Fooling your fans is nothing—fooling streamers, now that’s impressive. You really live up to the title of “God” 👍

If something goes wrong with a Maextro, JAC is the one responsible—not Huawei? So users spent over a million yuan on a JAC? Well played, JAC: going straight from the lowest-end car badge to the highest-end one? What a switcheroo. Impressive 👍

Many times the bid price and the lowest price differ by only 0.0001. If it happened once by accident, that would be understandable, but it’s been like this many times—I'm really a bit suspicious. Is there anyone who knows what’s going on? Please explain how this kind of precise price control is done. Does the system monitor everyone’s prices and counter them? $SUI

What on earth is happening?
Why did my account double after just one night of sleep?

The market has already priced in the expected rate hike, so the biggest highlight of tonight’s policy decision isn’t whether there will be a hike or not—it’s what Waller says!

But given Waller’s usual style and his relationship with Trump, the probability of a dovish statement is higher!

Waller consistently dislikes providing forward guidance. Even if further hikes are still needed afterward, he won’t pre-announce it—he’ll only say things like we’ll look at objective inflation data going forward…

So the most likely scenario tonight is:

1️⃣ (55–70% probability)
A 25bp rate hike + the dot plot retains the expectation of further hikes this year + the press conference does not proactively signal future hikes.
A hawkish move paired with a dovish statement.

Over a 24-hour cycle, price action will dip (the hike expectation becomes reality) and then rebound with a pulse (the “shoe drops” emotional rebound).

Over the 1-week horizon, after the rebound it will likely fall again (the actual impact of the hike), which is bearish “sell-the-news” repair—not a trend reversal.

September options expiry: BTC’s biggest pain point is 72,000, with downside protection concentrated in the 68,000–75,000 range; ETH’s biggest pain point is 2,200. Options expiry will amplify short-term implied volatility, making it easier to see a needle-like spike.

2️⃣ [20–25% probability] Hike + hawkish statement

A 25bp hike, with repeated emphasis on inflation risks, suggesting further hikes and kicking off a new hiking cycle.
Treasury yields rise, putting pressure on crypto as it moves lower.

This would trigger a big pullback: BTC tests support at 72,000–73,000 to the downside; if it breaks 72,000, it could fall further into the 68,000–70,000 range.

ETH: dips to test 2,200–2,250 support.

3️⃣ [5–15% probability] A 25bp hike, with the dot plot deleting the expectation of hikes this year—so the hiking cycle ends here.

A truly dovish outcome: strong risk-asset rebound. The bull is coming.

4 [White Swan] No rate hike…
Up you go! All-in long!
#美联储加息是否已成定局

Yesterday's wick took out 7 of the 10 long positions, leaving 3… $SNDK was bought back at a high level. Will there be another wick on Monday?

I’ve been watching him go bust ever since I started playing—don’t I remember it happening over a hundred times?
Every time he goes bust, he writes a little essay to apologize to the brothers who followed him, then makes all kinds of promises, recruits more people to follow, and then goes bust again!

Failure is the mother of success, that’s true—only, it seems your mother has had way too many children, huh?

$SNDK broke through the downtrend line. The 1446 I placed probably won’t get filled. If it doesn’t break below 1500 tonight, I’m going to enter a long position～

Humbly ask questions—it means admitting that your knowledge has limits;
Reverence for trends—it means understanding that worldly affairs have an inherent order.

Let go of the obsession with “what I think,” seek outward, and bow to the realities of the situation.

Don’t force things to conform to your own wishes; instead, with a humble heart, see clearly the direction the current is flowing—then move with the flow.

The two toughest tests in trading:

Patience to wait for the right moment, and the courage to challenge an opportunity when it appears!

$ETH has been held solo for a few months—it's basically finished running. I’ll keep a small position as a base to see whether it can reach my target price.

During this period, I’ve been studying $SNDK , roughly mastering a few techniques and gradually increasing my position to validate them.

Last night, all the short positions at 4040 for gold $XAU 4092 were closed. Today, if it can rebound to around 4145, it’s still possible to open a short position for a round. After that, we should mainly focus on going long at dips (low-entry). Both the lows and the highs are gradually rising, and there will be needs for periodic pullbacks and corrections.

Tonight, BTC, ETH, and XAU are rising in sync— is this a rebound or a reversal?

I. Macroeconomic factors

1. June ADP employment data misses expectations
In the U.S., June private-sector employment added only 98,000 jobs, far below the market forecast of 119,000. The prior figure was revised down to 122,000. This shows signs of cooling at the margin in the labor market. Concerns about the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have eased temporarily, while the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields fell intraday. Risk assets and precious metals benefited in parallel.
2. Remarks by Fed Chair Waller are interpreted as dovish
Later in the evening, Waller commented at the ECB’s Sintra Forum. He acknowledged that “inflation risks have already declined.” While he also reiterated that the 2% inflation target remains unchanged and did not provide forward guidance, his overall tone was softer than the hawkish stance the market had expected. Rate-tightening expectations relaxed at the margin, lifting risk appetite.

II. Crypto-specific catalysts (BTC/ETH)

1. Trading ahead of clearer regulatory expectations
The U.S. SEC’s public consultation period for the proposed digital asset regulatory framework for fiscal years 2026–2030 will end on July 2. The market expects that the final framework will further clarify the boundary of responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, which should reduce policy uncertainty. Compliance barriers for institutions entering the market are expected to continue to ease.
2. Oversold technical rebound
Earlier, BTC and related ETFs repeatedly saw net outflows of funds. After the price declined for some time and short-term technical indicators became oversold, combined with a window in early July for funds to reposition, it triggered a corrective, rebound-type rally.

III. Gold (XAU) — dedicated support

1. Physical buying provides a firm backstop
After the gold price broke below the $4,000 level, concentrated physical demand entered the market in Asia. At the same time, global central banks have continued adding to their gold holdings (with China’s central bank adding gold reserves for 19 consecutive months). The buying support underneath has been strong, and short sellers’ selling pressure quickly exhausted.
2. Repair after concentrated short selling is released
Gold had been pulling back for four consecutive months. After becoming technically oversold in the near term, rebound momentum accumulated—this is a normal “repair” phase following a sharp drop.

Key reminder

The current rise is still a short-term correction of expectations plus a technical rebound, not a trend reversal:

- The probability of Fed rate hikes in September remains relatively high; tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls data will directly recalibrate policy expectations.
- The overall outflow trend from crypto ETFs has not yet reversed; gold needs to wait for a more explicit rate-cut signal to start a trend move.