Tonight, BTC, ETH, and XAU are rising in sync— is this a rebound or a reversal?
I. Macroeconomic factors
1. June ADP employment data misses expectations
In the U.S., June private-sector employment added only 98,000 jobs, far below the market forecast of 119,000. The prior figure was revised down to 122,000. This shows signs of cooling at the margin in the labor market. Concerns about the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have eased temporarily, while the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields fell intraday. Risk assets and precious metals benefited in parallel.
2. Remarks by Fed Chair Waller are interpreted as dovish
Later in the evening, Waller commented at the ECB’s Sintra Forum. He acknowledged that “inflation risks have already declined.” While he also reiterated that the 2% inflation target remains unchanged and did not provide forward guidance, his overall tone was softer than the hawkish stance the market had expected. Rate-tightening expectations relaxed at the margin, lifting risk appetite.
II. Crypto-specific catalysts (BTC/ETH)
1. Trading ahead of clearer regulatory expectations
The U.S. SEC’s public consultation period for the proposed digital asset regulatory framework for fiscal years 2026–2030 will end on July 2. The market expects that the final framework will further clarify the boundary of responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, which should reduce policy uncertainty. Compliance barriers for institutions entering the market are expected to continue to ease.
2. Oversold technical rebound
Earlier, BTC and related ETFs repeatedly saw net outflows of funds. After the price declined for some time and short-term technical indicators became oversold, combined with a window in early July for funds to reposition, it triggered a corrective, rebound-type rally.
III. Gold (XAU) — dedicated support
1. Physical buying provides a firm backstop
After the gold price broke below the $4,000 level, concentrated physical demand entered the market in Asia. At the same time, global central banks have continued adding to their gold holdings (with China’s central bank adding gold reserves for 19 consecutive months). The buying support underneath has been strong, and short sellers’ selling pressure quickly exhausted.
2. Repair after concentrated short selling is released
Gold had been pulling back for four consecutive months. After becoming technically oversold in the near term, rebound momentum accumulated—this is a normal “repair” phase following a sharp drop.
Key reminder
The current rise is still a short-term correction of expectations plus a technical rebound, not a trend reversal:
- The probability of Fed rate hikes in September remains relatively high; tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls data will directly recalibrate policy expectations.
- The overall outflow trend from crypto ETFs has not yet reversed; gold needs to wait for a more explicit rate-cut signal to start a trend move.
I. Macroeconomic factors
1. June ADP employment data misses expectations
In the U.S., June private-sector employment added only 98,000 jobs, far below the market forecast of 119,000. The prior figure was revised down to 122,000. This shows signs of cooling at the margin in the labor market. Concerns about the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have eased temporarily, while the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields fell intraday. Risk assets and precious metals benefited in parallel.
2. Remarks by Fed Chair Waller are interpreted as dovish
Later in the evening, Waller commented at the ECB’s Sintra Forum. He acknowledged that “inflation risks have already declined.” While he also reiterated that the 2% inflation target remains unchanged and did not provide forward guidance, his overall tone was softer than the hawkish stance the market had expected. Rate-tightening expectations relaxed at the margin, lifting risk appetite.
II. Crypto-specific catalysts (BTC/ETH)
1. Trading ahead of clearer regulatory expectations
The U.S. SEC’s public consultation period for the proposed digital asset regulatory framework for fiscal years 2026–2030 will end on July 2. The market expects that the final framework will further clarify the boundary of responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, which should reduce policy uncertainty. Compliance barriers for institutions entering the market are expected to continue to ease.
2. Oversold technical rebound
Earlier, BTC and related ETFs repeatedly saw net outflows of funds. After the price declined for some time and short-term technical indicators became oversold, combined with a window in early July for funds to reposition, it triggered a corrective, rebound-type rally.
III. Gold (XAU) — dedicated support
1. Physical buying provides a firm backstop
After the gold price broke below the $4,000 level, concentrated physical demand entered the market in Asia. At the same time, global central banks have continued adding to their gold holdings (with China’s central bank adding gold reserves for 19 consecutive months). The buying support underneath has been strong, and short sellers’ selling pressure quickly exhausted.
2. Repair after concentrated short selling is released
Gold had been pulling back for four consecutive months. After becoming technically oversold in the near term, rebound momentum accumulated—this is a normal “repair” phase following a sharp drop.
Key reminder
The current rise is still a short-term correction of expectations plus a technical rebound, not a trend reversal:
- The probability of Fed rate hikes in September remains relatively high; tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls data will directly recalibrate policy expectations.
- The overall outflow trend from crypto ETFs has not yet reversed; gold needs to wait for a more explicit rate-cut signal to start a trend move.