The market has already priced in the expected rate hike, so the biggest highlight of tonight’s policy decision isn’t whether there will be a hike or not—it’s what Waller says!
But given Waller’s usual style and his relationship with Trump, the probability of a dovish statement is higher!
Waller consistently dislikes providing forward guidance. Even if further hikes are still needed afterward, he won’t pre-announce it—he’ll only say things like we’ll look at objective inflation data going forward…
So the most likely scenario tonight is:
1️⃣ (55–70% probability)
A 25bp rate hike + the dot plot retains the expectation of further hikes this year + the press conference does not proactively signal future hikes.
A hawkish move paired with a dovish statement.
Over a 24-hour cycle, price action will dip (the hike expectation becomes reality) and then rebound with a pulse (the “shoe drops” emotional rebound).
Over the 1-week horizon, after the rebound it will likely fall again (the actual impact of the hike), which is bearish “sell-the-news” repair—not a trend reversal.
September options expiry: BTC’s biggest pain point is 72,000, with downside protection concentrated in the 68,000–75,000 range; ETH’s biggest pain point is 2,200. Options expiry will amplify short-term implied volatility, making it easier to see a needle-like spike.
2️⃣ [20–25% probability] Hike + hawkish statement
A 25bp hike, with repeated emphasis on inflation risks, suggesting further hikes and kicking off a new hiking cycle.
Treasury yields rise, putting pressure on crypto as it moves lower.
This would trigger a big pullback: BTC tests support at 72,000–73,000 to the downside; if it breaks 72,000, it could fall further into the 68,000–70,000 range.
ETH: dips to test 2,200–2,250 support.
3️⃣ [5–15% probability] A 25bp hike, with the dot plot deleting the expectation of hikes this year—so the hiking cycle ends here.
A truly dovish outcome: strong risk-asset rebound. The bull is coming.
4 [White Swan] No rate hike…
Up you go! All-in long!
#美联储加息是否已成定局
But given Waller’s usual style and his relationship with Trump, the probability of a dovish statement is higher!
Waller consistently dislikes providing forward guidance. Even if further hikes are still needed afterward, he won’t pre-announce it—he’ll only say things like we’ll look at objective inflation data going forward…
So the most likely scenario tonight is:
1️⃣ (55–70% probability)
A 25bp rate hike + the dot plot retains the expectation of further hikes this year + the press conference does not proactively signal future hikes.
A hawkish move paired with a dovish statement.
Over a 24-hour cycle, price action will dip (the hike expectation becomes reality) and then rebound with a pulse (the “shoe drops” emotional rebound).
Over the 1-week horizon, after the rebound it will likely fall again (the actual impact of the hike), which is bearish “sell-the-news” repair—not a trend reversal.
September options expiry: BTC’s biggest pain point is 72,000, with downside protection concentrated in the 68,000–75,000 range; ETH’s biggest pain point is 2,200. Options expiry will amplify short-term implied volatility, making it easier to see a needle-like spike.
2️⃣ [20–25% probability] Hike + hawkish statement
A 25bp hike, with repeated emphasis on inflation risks, suggesting further hikes and kicking off a new hiking cycle.
Treasury yields rise, putting pressure on crypto as it moves lower.
This would trigger a big pullback: BTC tests support at 72,000–73,000 to the downside; if it breaks 72,000, it could fall further into the 68,000–70,000 range.
ETH: dips to test 2,200–2,250 support.
3️⃣ [5–15% probability] A 25bp hike, with the dot plot deleting the expectation of hikes this year—so the hiking cycle ends here.
A truly dovish outcome: strong risk-asset rebound. The bull is coming.
4 [White Swan] No rate hike…
Up you go! All-in long!
#美联储加息是否已成定局