Crypto子棋

Combining my trading views on August and the current liquidation map, the market logic this week is very clear. The main force’s intention is to hunt liquidity at both extremes in a stock-inventory game.

At this stage, bullish sentiment is waning, and buy-side support is weak.

And around 62700, it sits right in the middle zone of divergence between bulls and bears; the liquidation map directly exposes the short-term intentions of the main force.

Huge volumes of long liquidation leverage have piled up in the 61500 to 62000 range. The main force will most likely take advantage of this to wash the market downward, precisely blow up this batch of longs that are holding for the bottom liquidity, and complete a staged bull trap and accumulation.

Once the bloodied shares below are fully flushed out, things will move lightly.

Above the corresponding liquidation map, the air force’s defense lines are densely clustered in the 64500 to 65300 range. After the main force liquidates the longs, reversing upward to squeeze the market and blow up the short-fuel above would be the direction with the least resistance.

Based on the liquidity distribution above, the specific trading ranges this week are very明确.

The low-long entry range is 61500 to 61800. This is the most severe area where longs are at risk of being liquidated. It has the highest probability when you place a long position on a quick spike; decisively stop loss if it breaks below 60500.

The high-short sell range is 64800 to 65300. This is the extreme liquidity zone where the shorts above are being liquidated. It’s suitable to go long when the price rises too much and then sell/short; if it breaks above 66000, decisively stop loss.

(Only sharing market views; not investment advice)$BTC $ETH $GOOG.US

Haha, I’ve found another highly referential indicator: BMO as proof of my logic for the cycle!

Right now, it tells me: $BTC has already entered the macro contraction zone, but “cheap” doesn’t equal “the bottom”!

BMO puts MVRV, VWAP, CVDD, and the Sharpe Ratio together, while also looking at BTC’s valuation, long-term costs, and risk-adjusted returns.

In simple terms:
- The higher the BMO, the more充分 the market expansion is;
- When BMO falls into negative territory, both capital returns and valuation contract at the same time.

Looking back at history:
In 2017, after BMO broke above 2, it peaked and then dropped; BTC subsequently entered a bear market.
In 2021, BTC pushed to new highs again, but BMO didn’t make a corresponding new high.
Prices were still manufacturing “prosperity,” while macro momentum had already begun to weaken one step ahead. This kind of divergence is more worth watching than merely seeing price print new highs.
The cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022 both occurred in the deeply negative BMO zone.

But there’s a detail here: the first time BMO breaks below the 0 axis doesn’t mean BTC bottoms immediately.

The 0 axis is more like the dividing line between “macro expansion” and “macro contraction.”
Once it breaks below 0, it only means the market has shifted from profit expansion to value re-pricing; the true bottom usually still needs to go through negative-value “stalling,” panic release, and then the indicators turning upward.

And in the current chart, BTC is around $60k and BMO is around -0.9.
This implies:
The market has clearly left the cycle top, but you still can’t assert that the final bottom has already appeared based on negative values alone.

Next, I’ll focus on three signals:

- BTC probes lower again, but BMO doesn’t make a new low;
- BMO bottoms out in negative territory, forming a higher low;
- BMO moves back above the 0 axis, confirming that macro expansion has resumed.

The most important of these is the first: if price goes lower but BMO doesn’t worsen further, it means valuation is still being pushed down, but the macro selloff momentum has already started to exhaust.

At that point, you can judge whether the current decline is a “real drop” or whether the market is already bottoming while luring shorts—this is often the key forward-looking signal for a true cycle reversal.

Donald Trump’s greatest trait is that he takes “maximum pressure” and “rapid negotiation” to the extreme.

First, he issues harsh warnings to create pressure, then releases negotiation signals to stabilize the market; first, he pushes his opponents to the negotiating table, then adjusts the terms according to the situation.

His goal isn’t necessarily to truly fight a long-term war. Instead, it’s to win negotiation leverage through military deterrence, energy pressure, and volatility in financial markets.

Because high oil prices ultimately hurt American consumers and also increase inflation pressure—this, in turn, limits how much room the Federal Reserve has to cut rates. For Trump, controlling oil prices and stabilizing economic expectations is itself a political gain.

The essence of this U.S.-Iran conflict isn’t simply “war versus peace.”

Behind it are:

competition over energy routes;

a struggle for influence in the Middle East;

negotiations on the nuclear issue;

geopolitical competition under the U.S. dollar system.

What the market truly trades isn’t whether a war starts today, but whether the Strait of Hormuz, energy supply, and regional risks remain under control. In every round of negotiations so far, as progress is made, oil prices fall quickly—but as soon as negotiations hit turbulence, the risk premium returns.

So don’t simply interpret every statement Trump makes as a “flip-flop.”

His core strategy is: create uncertainty, then use that uncertainty to gain the biggest negotiating advantage.

For the market, the short term is favorable for risk assets, because oil pressure declines and inflation expectations ease; but in the medium to long term, what truly determines the direction is whether the conflict has been thoroughly cooled down and whether global liquidity is reopened.

Politics is the performance; interests are the script.

I did another deep dive into this indicator: when NUPL drops below 0, it does not mean BTC has already bottomed out!

Let’s review the past 4 cycles:

2011: When NUPL fell below 0, BTC was about $5.8. After 66 days, it dropped to $2.3, and then continued falling another 60%.
2015: At the time of the break, it was about $328. After 102 days, it fell to $178, and then continued falling another 46%.
2018: At the time of the break, it was about $4.9k. After 26 days, it fell to $3.2k, and then continued falling another 34%.
2022: At the time of the break, it was about $22.1k. After 160 days, it dropped to $15.8k, and then continued falling another 29%.

The pattern is clear: when NUPL drops below 0, it confirms that “the entire network has entered unrealized losses,” not that the price will immediately bottom.

From profits being given back to principal being damaged, the market still needs time to complete three things:

High-level holders capitulate;
Loss-making coins fully rotate and change hands;
Selling power gradually exhausts.

Notably, as the market grows larger, the price drawdown after breaking below 0 is narrowing with each cycle, but the time it takes to form a bottom is not shortening accordingly.

Especially in 2022: after NUPL dropped below 0, BTC kept oscillating for 160 days before the final low appeared.

This suggests that in a more mature market, the bottom may no longer be formed by a single major sell-off, but instead by digesting trapped positions over a longer period.

And currently, NUPL is still above the 0 line, meaning the overall market has not yet entered unrealized losses.

So right now, conditions are closer to the profit-compression phase—not the all-out capitulation phase that is typical of past bear-market bottoms.

This indicator, NUPL, tells me: the real capitulation bottom hasn’t shown up yet!

Look at the cycle bottoms:
📌
After the bear markets in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, NUPL fell to below the 0 axis.

When NUPL is negative, it means that based on the on-chain average cost, the entire BTC network has already entered unrealized losses.

This stage is usually accompanied by:
High-level buyers cutting losses in a concentrated selloff;
Short- and long-term coin holders rotating and re-changing hands;
Market sentiment shifting into fear or capitulation;

The 0 axis isn’t an ordinary line. When NUPL drops from positive into negative, it signifies that the market has moved from “profit retracement” to “principal damage.”

And currently, NUPL has already fallen from the prior stage’s high level back into the 0–0.25 range.

This suggests that most paper profits have been compressed. The market has clearly left the greed zone, but overall the network is still in unrealized gains—there hasn’t been a full capitulation like what’s typical of historical bear-market bottoms.

In other words:
Now it doesn’t look like a cycle top, but it’s also not a textbook final bear-market bottom. It’s more like a transition zone between “hope and fear.”

Next, you can watch for two possible paths:

1️⃣
If BTC strengthens again, NUPL will rise in sync and move back above 0.5, indicating that a new round of profit expansion is forming. But the closer it gets to historical highs, the more risk from profit-taking will build up again.

2️⃣
If BTC keeps falling, and NUPL breaks below 0, it means the whole network is in overall unrealized losses. Then the panic release that follows may actually produce a higher-quality cycle-bottom signal.

Personally, I think the truly important thing isn’t whether NUPL breaks below 0, but this:
If the price makes another new low, does NUPL also make a new low.

Lower prices, but NUPL doesn’t worsen anymore, means the expansion of losses is slowing down—and seller pressure may be nearing exhaustion.

So the question now is:
If BTC finds a bottom while NUPL is still positive, would you position early on the left side—or do you insist on waiting until NUPL breaks below 0 and the whole network completes capitulation before acting?

Why does selling a coin that later skyrockets feel worse sometimes than truly losing money?

This is exactly where I’ve been lately. I’ve been filtering a bunch of strong coins, staring at the charts every day—but I still miss the move and sell too early, watching myself miss out on several big runs. It really hurts!

At least with losses, you can blame the market. But selling too early feels like a reminder to myself: the opportunity came, and I personally let it go.

In the past, after I sold a coin, I always liked to keep watching it.
When it first rose 10%, I started regretting it. When it hit 50%, I began to doubt myself. After it doubled, I finally couldn’t resist chasing it back. And the result is usually this: the position I sold at a lower price didn’t end up making money—and the one I chased back at a higher price gets trapped.

A trade that was originally profitable ends up being turned into a losing one by “reluctance” and unwillingness.

Later I realized: the pain of selling too early isn’t because I lost the principal—it’s because the brain also counts the “money I could have made” as part of my wealth.
That’s just a hindsight perspective. No one can buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top. The goal of trading isn’t to capture the entire move—it’s to repeatedly make money within your own system, under risks you can tolerate.

The truly mature approach is to reassess after selling, not to chase after the fact just to prove you were wrong to sell last time. If the logic, odds, and position sizing are still sound, you can re-enter. But if the only reason is simply, “It’s still pumping,” then it’s not an opportunity—it’s your emotions demanding repayment.

There will always be another car on the road, but you may not get a second chance at the same capital.

Remember: selling too early usually means you make less. Only an uncontrolled chase back in can turn regret into a real loss.

Why in 2025, even though it’s clearly a bull market, so many people still managed to lose everything?

It’s not because the market has no opportunities—it's because the logic of making money has changed.

In the past, Crypto was essentially profiting from an industry’s rapid growth.

As long as new money came in, BTC would rise, ETH would rise, public chains would rise, Meme coins would rise, and even projects with no product and no users could still multiply by a few times.

But 2025 is different.

ETFs, institutional capital, and regulatory frameworks are making Crypto look more and more like traditional financial markets. Money no longer flows evenly into all assets; instead, it prioritizes the most liquid assets, the easiest exits, and the highest certainty.

Many people are still waiting for another round of "altcoin season" where everything rallies at once. But in reality, there will never be such a broad-based surge again. There’s no way to break even just by waiting—it will just slowly bleed toward zero.

Many people lose money not because they can’t analyze, but because they keep using the map from the last bull market and searching for the entry point to this one.

The biggest risk in the market has never been the decline itself—it’s that the market has changed, but your understanding is still stuck in the past.

Those who truly make it through bull and bear cycles aren’t the ones who get the top and bottom right every time.

When you encounter a black swan, going heavily into position is the excellent opportunity for ordinary people to get rich!

Many people ask me:

Why do you always say to stay patient, and to wait—wait until when?

I think it’s until everyone can’t hold on anymore, until everyone loses confidence, until everyone thinks it’s the bottom and then another deep drop happens—until a black swan event occurs!

During this time, we only need to accumulate capital, remain patient, not be tempted by the interim market swings, and reduce the chance of making mistakes!

This is the opportunity I’m waiting for—this is why I haven’t acted for so long—because I still want to make it happen with one more perfect crash-the-cup, a reversal that defies fate! (The “crash-the-cup” is my exclusive one; later, many people quoted it.)

Why is HYPE down? Capital can explain everything. From ETF data, over the past month it has continued to see persistent net outflows. In this situation, how could it keep rising?

HYPE has been adjusting recently. The core issue isn’t that the project’s logic has broken down; rather, overvalued assets are undergoing a process of “unlocking pressure + a repricing of capital.”

Looking at ETF flows, the total net outflow of HYPE-related ETFs recently is about 520,000 tokens. The most notable outflows are from Bitwise, suggesting that in the short term, institutional money is adjusting profit-taking rather than continuously chasing highs to accumulate. The market has entered a phase of redistributing holdings.

In terms of supply structure, HYPE’s total supply is 1 billion tokens, of which more than 200 million are currently circulating. What the market is truly focused on is the roughly 238 million tokens held by the team and core contributors, accounting for 23.8%. These will continue to be released in the future.

The pressure caused by recent hundred-million-dollar-scale unlocks is essentially the market digesting future supply expectations ahead of time.

From a technical perspective, HYPE has pulled back from above $70 to around $52, and it has already entered a prior area where trading was dense.

$50 is the key support. If it breaks, it may further test the $45–48 range. If it can reclaim and hold above $60, it would indicate that the market has once again accepted the valuation.

Long term, HYPE’s biggest advantages remain its real revenue, trading volume, and ecosystem foundation. But in the short term, price depends on one core question: can the speed of incoming new capital exceed the speed at which tokens are released from unlocks?

Even a good project needs a good price. Real opportunities usually aren’t found by chasing during market mania, but by looking for value when panic from unlocks leads to overselling.

Understand the $BTC monthly chart—it's more useful than researching all sorts of confusing things you might do!

The market is simple: if it goes up too much, it has to fall; if it falls too much, it also has to rise—there aren’t so many twists and turns…

August has just begun. Whether it closes as bullish (up) or bearish (down), it will be weak. It will be hard to see any big movement. The trading range is about 10%, and even 5% is possible. Don’t believe it? Check again by the end of the month.

If I had to choose, I’d hope it closes bullish. The reason is simple: in a bear-market cycle, there are only 4 bullish months. Once August closes bullish, the next few months become very clear: September, October, November—three months of continuous declines, then it bottoms out!

Just wait. Why keep overthinking? Time is the best testing tool. Let’s wait and see!

Why do sometimes bad news leads to price increases after it “lands”?

When I first started trading, I always thought the market was simple: good news means the price goes up, bad news means it goes down.

Then I was repeatedly taught that what you trade is never the news itself, but the gap between what’s happening in reality and what the market has already expected.

If everyone already knew the earnings guidance was likely weak and that policy might tighten—and the shorts had already positioned in advance—then when the bad news is actually released, as long as the result isn’t as terrible as imagined, funds will cover, and the price will rise instead. Conversely, a major piece of good news that everyone is excited about can also become an exit for the main players if the fulfillment falls short of expectations.

This is true for US stock earnings reports, and even more so for crypto.

Before things like an ETF being approved, interest rate cuts landing, or a mainnet launch, prices often rise ahead of time. After the announcement, whether it keeps going up depends on whether there’s new incremental buying, not whether the headline is “loud” enough.

The biggest mistake I used to make was chasing trades only after reading the news—thinking I was trading the information, but really just inheriting someone else’s already-traded expectations.

Later, I learned to ask three questions first: What did the market expect beforehand? How much of it has the price already reflected? After the event is settled, who will keep buying?

News is for creating emotion; it’s the expectation gap that truly determines the price.

Remember: the market doesn’t reward the person who sees the news first—it rewards the one who understands one step beyond the consensus.

Facts prove: my analysis is sound!

Right now $$BTC is fluctuating around 63,000. Last night it even dipped to 62.4 thousand!

You can ignore my analysis and not interact with me, but please don’t go against the trend—because that would be irresponsible toward your wallet.

U.S. stocks have already moved from a strong phase into a period of phased correction. In the downward stage, it’s hard for BTC to make any big moves. If we can just maintain range-bound fluctuations, that’s already not bad. In the bigger picture, the overall trend is still mainly wide-range oscillation. Don’t expect grand rallies—at most, there may be a phase of rebound!

During a weak, range-bound phase, the liquidation map becomes a very good directional indicator, which is worth paying attention to. Don’t act blindly. Wait for positions with a better price-to-value ratio before making a move. With capital, there is a future!$NVDAB $GOOG.US

The biggest controversy around HYPE recently is the ongoing token unlocks.

When many people see “a one-hundred-million-level pledge release,” their first reaction is: the institutions are going to dump.

But what the market truly needs to focus on isn’t the unlock itself, but rather this: after the unlock, whether the coins have moved into the secondary market to create sustained selling pressure.

Many strong projects go through this process in the early stages.

During the uptrend, the market is willing to price in future valuations.

During the consolidation phase, the market starts recalculating:

Can current revenue support the current market cap?

Can future growth still be delivered?

That’s also why HYPE has shown clear volatility recently.

From the candlestick structure: HYPE previously went through a round of strong trend rallying. After the price quickly surged from the low, it formed a clear distribution zone with noticeable consolidation at the highs.

Around $52.5, it’s currently in the first major correction phase after the rally.

In the short term: the $55–$60 area is the first resistance zone.

If it fails to break through $60 with volume, it suggests there’s still disagreement in the market about the high valuation, and the trapped supply above will keep releasing selling pressure.

Key support below:

First support: the $48–$50 area. This is the current psychological line in the market, and also the battleground zone for long and short positions.

If it breaks below $50:

The next target may look to the $42–$45 area—this could become a stronger zone for chips to regroup.

From a fundamentals perspective, HYPE’s biggest advantage still remains: it’s not just fueled by concept hype.

Hyperliquid has real trading volume, real fee revenue, and a strong on-chain trading ecosystem.

That’s also why the market keeps comparing it to early BNB.

But the issue is also very clear: the market has already priced in very high expectations for it in advance.

When institutional capital starts paying attention to HYPE, it means the market hasn’t completely denied its value.

Real large funds usually don’t chase the price at the most疯狂（craziest）moment in the market—they look for opportunities during panic-driven corrections.

For HYPE: what truly determines how high it can go in the future isn’t a single unlock.

Instead, it’s whether, when the next round of market becomes疯狂 again, HYPE can still prove it deserves a higher valuation.

What the market is testing right now isn’t faith—it’s this: after a project goes through a correction, is there still capital willing to keep believing in it.

15 minutes, lightning-fast operation, profit 4000U

Damn, too early—SanDisk is still dropping, and so is Micron…

Don’t bother looking anymore. I’ve already closed the position. SanDisk and Micron no longer have a chance to let me lose money!

At this stage, my goal is just to short—short US stocks, short BTC. Only buy low, only short high. Absolutely no random trades in between!

I just couldn’t resist going in right then!

While US stocks were gapping up and opening strong, I pushed in and went short straight away. If SanDisk jumps to 1800, I’ll lose ten million……

Amazon’s guidance is indeed relatively weak, but what the market is trading is not the reduction of sales by a few billion dollars next quarter; it’s that AWS has begun to re-accelerate, proving that the massive AI investment is shifting from a “cash-burning story” to real revenue.

The core of this rally comes down to two words: AWS.

In Q2, AWS revenue grew 37% year over year to $42.2 billion, well above market expectations of about 31%, and the fastest growth rate in more than four years. Operating margin for AWS was close to 39%. Advertising revenue also rose 26% to $19.8 billion. The market’s biggest prior concern was that Amazon might lag Microsoft and Google in AI cloud competition—this earnings report directly disproves that.

For Q3, revenue guidance is $197.0 billion to $202.0 billion, below the market’s expectation of $203.9 billion, but this looks more like a timing issue: Prime Day was moved up into Q2, which pulled forward some retail revenue that would otherwise land in Q3. Compared with selling slightly less in e-commerce, investors care more about the higher-quality earnings and the fact that AWS—where the capital is really going—is accelerating.

Amazon also increased full-year capital expenditures from $200 billion to $220 billion. In normal circumstances, this would be a negative, because free cash flow over the past 12 months has fallen to negative $7.6 billion. However, management said that compute demand still exceeds supply, and that some of the AWS capacity planned for 2027 has already been reserved. The market therefore interprets the higher spending as “expanding because there are orders,” rather than blindly burning cash.

That said, note that the big jump in earnings per share includes a large unrealized gain tied to Anthropic equity, so it can’t be viewed entirely as operating profit.

Outlook: after a near-term surge, the stock is likely to be volatile as the move is digested. Whether it can keep trending higher in the medium term depends on whether AWS can sustain growth of 30% or more, and whether capital expenditures can translate into cash flow. If the cloud business continues to accelerate, there is still room for valuation to be re-rated. If AWS slows down and free cash flow continues to deteriorate, this 9% gain is more likely just a one-off earnings impulse.

The market has forgiven the weak guidance because AWS has delivered a more valuable future.

Why did I still lose money after buying a great project?

When I first entered the market, I always thought that as long as a project was excellent, the price would eventually bounce back.

So I studied the team, the technology, the ecosystem, and the narrative—the logic seemed to get clearer and clearer, and my position size kept getting bigger and bigger.

Only later did I realize: great assets and great trades are not the same thing.

Even if a project’s fundamentals are strong, if the valuation is already priced in for the next few years at the time you buy, if the unlocked tokens continue to be released, and if there’s no new capital stepping in off-exchange to absorb the supply, then what people call “long-term value” is, in the short term, only a story that holders tell to comfort each other.

The asset may continue to develop, but the coin price could drop first by 80%.

What the market trades is never about whether “it’s good,” but rather how much good news the current price has already reflected—and how much upside beyond expectations remains.

What everyone already agrees is excellent is often already written into the price; what truly generates profit is reality ultimately being better than market expectations.

My biggest mistake back then was using fundamentals to prove that I bought correctly, but I rarely studied my cost basis, liquidity, and valuation. When it fell, I blamed the market for not recognizing value. When I got trapped, I talked about long-termism. In the end, the project was still alive—while my account was already gone.

After I became more mature, I understood: fundamentals determine whether an asset is worth long-term attention, while price and odds determine whether it’s worth betting on right now. Having the right direction but the wrong price is just as much a failed trade.

Remember: a good project doesn’t equal a good price, and a good price doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate rally.

Five days pass in a rush—three days of sharp selloff, followed by two days of recovery—staging a “life-or-death sprint” in the capital markets.

SNDK: down 35% in 3 days, up 40% in 2 days
SKHY: down 30% in 3 days, up 35% in 2 days
MU: down 36% in 3 days, up 25% in 2 days

In just a few days, these three stocks captured the entire market’s attention. Some cut losses and exited in panic, while others picked up bloodied chips at the bottom and walked away with overflowing profits.

It’s still the same question asked three days ago: When the chips are soaked in blood, do you dare to pick them up?

In fact, the cruelest part of the market is never that it doesn’t offer opportunities—it’s that when opportunities appear, most people don’t have the courage to reach out.

During a selloff, everyone sees risk; during a rally, everyone sees opportunity.

But real money is often made when others are driven by fear and greed.

What’s the biggest change in these stocks?

It’s not that their fundamentals changed dramatically within three days—it’s that market sentiment completed an extreme flip.

This is the biggest contradiction in the capital markets: even good assets can come with bad prices, and bad sentiment can wrongly sell off good assets.

Many people lose money not because they get the direction wrong, but because they’re too excited when buying and too panicked when selling.

A truly mature investor isn’t the one who gets most疯狂 during an uptrend, but the one who can stay calm when the market is most chaotic.

Of course, picking up bloodied chips isn’t mindless value-buying. Cheap doesn’t necessarily mean it will rise, and a crash doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate reversal.

Real opportunities come from this: the fundamentals haven’t collapsed, yet the price has been hammered down by emotion to reveal value.

The market always rewards two kinds of people: one is those who stay rational amid frenzy; the other is those who still dare to think amid panic.

Everyone wants to catch the final stretch of a rally, but the truly big opportunities are often hidden in the deep night that no one dares to look at.