Whether the Fed will continue to hike rates in October is | Crypto子棋 on Binance Square

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Whether the Fed will continue to hike rates in October is now only a question of the September CPI on October 14.

So far, the Nonfarm Payrolls added just 29,000 jobs; the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, while wage growth year over year has fallen to 3.0%. Core PCE is also below expectations.

With inflation cooling across employment, wages, and the demand side, the probability of a rate hike in October has already dropped to about 14%.

I expect the September CPI year over year to be 3.5%—3.6%, with core CPI around 2.4%.

Headline inflation could rise due to a rebound in oil prices, but core inflation remains relatively mild. After employment clearly weakens, the Fed will find it difficult to keep hiking rates continuously driven solely by energy-related inflation.

If the core CPI monthly rate does not exceed 0.3%, the probability of an October hike is expected to stay at 10%—20%. If it reaches 0.4% or higher, the probability could rebound to 30%—45%. If the core monthly rate is no higher than 0.2%, the probability of a hike may fall to below 5%.

My baseline view: the probability of pausing in October is about 85%, and the probability of a hike is about 15%. What really needs to be guarded against is not a sudden rate hike in October, but oil prices continuing to rise and forcing the Fed to move the rate hike implied by the dot plot to December.

Crypto子棋

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US nonfarm comes in unexpectedly strong for BTC as it surges toward $870,000: what truly changes is the odds for October rate hikes!

In September, nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below the expected 90,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and year-over-year average hourly earnings fell to 3.0%.

On top of that, revisions to the prior two months’ employment data show that the cooling in U.S. labor has already stopped being just a one-month noise—it’s become a sustained trend.

With labor market weakness, keeping rate hikes going could magnify the downside risk to the economy; a slowdown in wage growth also eases pressure for service inflation to rebound again.

Pausing rate hikes in October has effectively become the market’s baseline scenario.

However, core inflation is still around 3%, and oil prices and geopolitical risks have not gone away—so it’s still too early to discuss rate cuts.

For BTC, weak employment data is a near-term tailwind: Treasury yields and the dollar come under pressure, risk assets get breathing room. After BTC breaks $85,500, stop-losses for shorts are triggered and the price quickly pushes up to $87,000.

That said, weak data isn’t only positive.

If upcoming economic indicators keep deteriorating, what the market will be pricing in won’t be “no more rate hikes,” but rather a recession. If U.S. stocks open strong and then fade, BTC could also see “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” profit-taking.

Next, focus on several key levels:

$874,000–$880,000 is the main resistance zone. If it can build volume and hold above that level, the upside could target $900,000–$930,000.

$855,000 is the short-term strength/weakness line. Holding it would indicate that the breakout is valid.

A break below $830,000–$840,000 would suggest upside momentum is weakening; losing $820,000 would mean this nonfarm tailwind has basically been fully priced in.

My view is that the pronounced weakening in the labor market significantly reduces the risk of continued rate hikes in October. The probability of testing $900,000 this month is rising—but how much BTC rallies after the data is released may not be the key. What matters is whether, after the U.S. market opens, it can hold above $85,500 and turn $88,000 into support. That will determine whether this move is the start of a trend—or simply the兑现 (profit-taking) of the bullish news.

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.