$BTC is back near $87,000, but this time things are a little different from the last.
The first surge to $87,400 was followed by a quick pullback, showing that there was heavy selling pressure from trapped holders and long-term holders above.
But during the pullback, BTC held firmly between $83,000 and $84,000, while its daily lows continued to rise. Now it is approaching the previous high again, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually being absorbed—not that the bulls have already left.
Across the first two trading days of this month, spot ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $134.4 million. Weak nonfarm payrolls have also lowered the odds of an October rate hike, making the macro backdrop somewhat favorable in the short term. However, ETF inflows are still not especially strong, and Treasury yields remain elevated. So we can’t focus only on an intraday break above resistance; the daily close matters.
The next steps are clear:
A high-volume breakout above $87,400 and a hold above $88,000 would confirm a valid breakout on the daily chart. The initial target would be $90,000–$93,000, with $96,000 in view beyond that.
If price surges and then pulls back again, breaking below $85,000, that would mean the selling pressure overhead has not yet been absorbed, and price could revisit $83,000. A break below $82,000 would invalidate the short-term breakout thesis.
My view: the odds of a successful second test of $87,000 are higher than they were on the first attempt. But until price holds above $88,000, this is still just a test—not the start of a sustained rally. True strength isn’t just breaking higher; it’s being able to hold those gains.
The first surge to $87,400 was followed by a quick pullback, showing that there was heavy selling pressure from trapped holders and long-term holders above.
But during the pullback, BTC held firmly between $83,000 and $84,000, while its daily lows continued to rise. Now it is approaching the previous high again, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually being absorbed—not that the bulls have already left.
Across the first two trading days of this month, spot ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $134.4 million. Weak nonfarm payrolls have also lowered the odds of an October rate hike, making the macro backdrop somewhat favorable in the short term. However, ETF inflows are still not especially strong, and Treasury yields remain elevated. So we can’t focus only on an intraday break above resistance; the daily close matters.
The next steps are clear:
A high-volume breakout above $87,400 and a hold above $88,000 would confirm a valid breakout on the daily chart. The initial target would be $90,000–$93,000, with $96,000 in view beyond that.
If price surges and then pulls back again, breaking below $85,000, that would mean the selling pressure overhead has not yet been absorbed, and price could revisit $83,000. A break below $82,000 would invalidate the short-term breakout thesis.
My view: the odds of a successful second test of $87,000 are higher than they were on the first attempt. But until price holds above $88,000, this is still just a test—not the start of a sustained rally. True strength isn’t just breaking higher; it’s being able to hold those gains.