The market has rebounded more than 50% from the bottom. What phase are we in now? Some are calling it a bull market, others a bear-market rally. There’s no shortage of knee-jerk takes, but not many clear-headed answers!
Here’s my take, with some points for everyone to consider and verify as the market unfolds.
My conclusion: This is a strong recovery after a bear market, not a new bull market yet!
$BTC
After falling from $126,000 to $58,000 and then rebounding to $87,000, BTC should still be viewed through a bear-market lens in 2026. The $58,000 level is likely an important bottom, but a cycle bottom has not yet been fully confirmed.
The maximum drawdown in this cycle was about 54%, and the correction was also shorter than a typical full bear market. ETFs have strengthened demand, which may make the bear-market decline shallower, but they change the depth of the drawdown—not eliminate the cycle altogether.
There is support from fund flows, but not enough to justify blindly betting on a rally.
In the first four trading days of October, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw combined net inflows of about $322 million, suggesting institutions have not exited. But compared with weekly inflows of more than $2 billion in late September, investors’ willingness to chase prices has clearly weakened.
BTC balances on exchanges have fallen to about 2.68 million coins, meaning sell-side supply is shrinking. This is an important reason why $58,000 may have become a medium-term bottom. However, about 74% of holders are back in profit, and long-term holders have also begun taking profits into the rebound.
The $85,000–$88,000 range is the first major resistance zone. The $90,000–$96,700 range will determine whether this recovery can turn into a reversal.
The macro environment also doesn’t support BTC moving straight into a sustained rally.
The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5.3%, oil prices are close to $100, and the risk of another rate hike before year-end has not gone away.
My base case for the next six months is:
In October, BTC first pushes toward $88,000–$92,000. If sentiment gets especially strong, it may test $96,700, but it will probably struggle to hold above that level on the first attempt.
In the second half of Q4, it pulls back to $80,000–$82,000, with a test of $76,000–$77,000 possible in an extreme scenario. As long as the weekly chart holds above $77,000, BTC could still have a chance to challenge $96,700–$105,000 in Q1 next year.
In short: First push toward $90,000, then a pullback to $80,000, and then we see whether it can reach $100,000.
A true bull market is confirmed not when the price touches $90,000, but when it holds above $96,700–$100,000 on the weekly chart, pulls back without breaking below that range, and ETF inflows resume at a sustained, substantial pace.
At this stage, it’s reasonable to be bullish on the recovery—but don’t mistake a recovery for a sustained bull run. The biggest risk in cycle trading isn’t missing the exact bottom; it’s mistaking a temporary rally for a new bull market when excitement is at its peak.
Here’s my take, with some points for everyone to consider and verify as the market unfolds.
My conclusion: This is a strong recovery after a bear market, not a new bull market yet!
$BTC
After falling from $126,000 to $58,000 and then rebounding to $87,000, BTC should still be viewed through a bear-market lens in 2026. The $58,000 level is likely an important bottom, but a cycle bottom has not yet been fully confirmed.
The maximum drawdown in this cycle was about 54%, and the correction was also shorter than a typical full bear market. ETFs have strengthened demand, which may make the bear-market decline shallower, but they change the depth of the drawdown—not eliminate the cycle altogether.
There is support from fund flows, but not enough to justify blindly betting on a rally.
In the first four trading days of October, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw combined net inflows of about $322 million, suggesting institutions have not exited. But compared with weekly inflows of more than $2 billion in late September, investors’ willingness to chase prices has clearly weakened.
BTC balances on exchanges have fallen to about 2.68 million coins, meaning sell-side supply is shrinking. This is an important reason why $58,000 may have become a medium-term bottom. However, about 74% of holders are back in profit, and long-term holders have also begun taking profits into the rebound.
The $85,000–$88,000 range is the first major resistance zone. The $90,000–$96,700 range will determine whether this recovery can turn into a reversal.
The macro environment also doesn’t support BTC moving straight into a sustained rally.
The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5.3%, oil prices are close to $100, and the risk of another rate hike before year-end has not gone away.
My base case for the next six months is:
In October, BTC first pushes toward $88,000–$92,000. If sentiment gets especially strong, it may test $96,700, but it will probably struggle to hold above that level on the first attempt.
In the second half of Q4, it pulls back to $80,000–$82,000, with a test of $76,000–$77,000 possible in an extreme scenario. As long as the weekly chart holds above $77,000, BTC could still have a chance to challenge $96,700–$105,000 in Q1 next year.
In short: First push toward $90,000, then a pullback to $80,000, and then we see whether it can reach $100,000.
A true bull market is confirmed not when the price touches $90,000, but when it holds above $96,700–$100,000 on the weekly chart, pulls back without breaking below that range, and ETF inflows resume at a sustained, substantial pace.
At this stage, it’s reasonable to be bullish on the recovery—but don’t mistake a recovery for a sustained bull run. The biggest risk in cycle trading isn’t missing the exact bottom; it’s mistaking a temporary rally for a new bull market when excitement is at its peak.