Two consecutive $BTC shocks failed to break 88,000—are we still in the process of building energy, or is this rebound round already nearing the end?
My take: There is still room for a short-term push higher, but at this stage we can only define it as a strong rebound within a bear market. We can’t confirm a bullish reversal yet.
Technically, BTC has been consolidating at the high end of 83,000 to 87,000. The daily chart holds above key moving averages, RSI is around 63, and there’s no obvious overheating.
However, MACD momentum looks weak, and trading volume has been steadily declining—suggesting the bulls still control the market, but they lack incremental capital to complete a breakout.
Between 83,000 and 86,000, about 1.07 million BTC worth of chips have accumulated. New funds are building positions here, and trapped holders are also finding an exit here. Price keeps oscillating back and forth; at its core, this is absorbing sell pressure.
For the first two trading days, ETFs saw total net inflows of $134.4 million. Institutions are still taking in supply, but compared with the roughly $2.4 billion net inflow in a single week in late September, the力度 is clearly weaker.
Expectations for the Fed pausing rate hikes in October are heating up, and the Nasdaq is also rising. The issue is that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still around 5.28%, so liquidity hasn’t truly loosened.
In the first half of October, it’s likely to continue churning in the 83,000–88,000 range and then choose a direction. The 14-day CPI will be the first catalyst!
If it trades with volume and firmly holds above 88,000, the target would be 90,000–93,000. If it breaks out but then falls back to 85,000, we’d still treat it as range trading. If it breaks below 82,000, downside would be 79,000–80,000. If 76,000 is lost, this round of mid-term repair would basically be over.
You can be moderately bullish now, but it’s not suitable to chase. For BTC to open up upside potential for Q4, ETFs need to resume strong inflows, and 88,000 must truly turn into support.
My take: There is still room for a short-term push higher, but at this stage we can only define it as a strong rebound within a bear market. We can’t confirm a bullish reversal yet.
Technically, BTC has been consolidating at the high end of 83,000 to 87,000. The daily chart holds above key moving averages, RSI is around 63, and there’s no obvious overheating.
However, MACD momentum looks weak, and trading volume has been steadily declining—suggesting the bulls still control the market, but they lack incremental capital to complete a breakout.
Between 83,000 and 86,000, about 1.07 million BTC worth of chips have accumulated. New funds are building positions here, and trapped holders are also finding an exit here. Price keeps oscillating back and forth; at its core, this is absorbing sell pressure.
For the first two trading days, ETFs saw total net inflows of $134.4 million. Institutions are still taking in supply, but compared with the roughly $2.4 billion net inflow in a single week in late September, the力度 is clearly weaker.
Expectations for the Fed pausing rate hikes in October are heating up, and the Nasdaq is also rising. The issue is that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is still around 5.28%, so liquidity hasn’t truly loosened.
In the first half of October, it’s likely to continue churning in the 83,000–88,000 range and then choose a direction. The 14-day CPI will be the first catalyst!
If it trades with volume and firmly holds above 88,000, the target would be 90,000–93,000. If it breaks out but then falls back to 85,000, we’d still treat it as range trading. If it breaks below 82,000, downside would be 79,000–80,000. If 76,000 is lost, this round of mid-term repair would basically be over.
You can be moderately bullish now, but it’s not suitable to chase. For BTC to open up upside potential for Q4, ETFs need to resume strong inflows, and 88,000 must truly turn into support.