🏛️ Fed and the CLARITY Act: two events that will set the market tone today
The market is looking at two key events that will shape the near-term outlook: the Federal Reserve meeting (concludes tomorrow) and the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act in the Senate.
📈 Fed: high probability of a rate hike
Consensus points to a 25-basis-point increase tomorrow, Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability is 86.2%, versus just 13.8% for holding rates steady. The reason: August’s CPI rose 0.3% month over month, reigniting inflation fears.
If it happens, the target rate range would move up to 3.75%-4.00%, the first increase in more than a year. The focus will be on Kevin Warsh’s press conference, where a hawkish (tough on inflation) tone is expected.
⚖️ CLARITY Act: critical vote today
Today at 2:15 PM (Eastern Time), the Senate votes on a procedural motion (cloture) to unblock debate on the CLARITY Act.
· It needs 60 votes. Republicans have 53, so they need at least 7 Democrats.
· Probabilities: Polymarket assigns only a 17% approval chance in 2026; Galaxy Research places it at 10%.
· Points of friction: stablecoin rewards and ethical rules for officials (including crypto interests tied to the Trump family).
📉 Combined impact on crypto
If the most likely scenario plays out (the Fed hikes + the CLARITY Act does not move forward), the market would face a double bearish hit: the Fed drains liquidity and strengthens the dollar, while regulatory uncertainty remains.
$BTC is already trading cautiously, around $76,300, and the other altcoins are following the same pattern as
$ETH and
$SOL , reflecting expectations of a hostile environment.
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