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@qingmeizhubi
心中有丘壑 眼里存山河，公众号与微博可搜“青梅煮币2”，推特等加我@chinaz1974。
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Bitcoin closed with a long positive line on the weekly chart and a small negative line on the daily chart. The market failed to pass the resistance level of 67,200 and fell back after multiple top divergences. CME BTC had a small gap during the day. Yesterday, we mentioned that a golden column appeared at the daily level. The long-short balance point and strong support were at $64,600. This view has not changed. If there is a chance to fall back here, it will be a short-term opportunity. From the perspective of the form, it may be a behavior of stepping back on the neckline of the head and shoulders bottom. #btc
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The United States will release CPI data next Wednesday. Everyone is worried about a rebound in inflation. If the CPI is higher than the previous value of 3.5%, it will undoubtedly be bad news. Therefore, next week may be a turning point in the market.
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Green Plum Coin: Bitcoin from the perspective of chip distribution
Today let’s look at Bitcoin from the perspective of chip distribution.
First, the distribution of chips since the highest point of 73777.
The Bitcoin market has fallen below the chip peak and is operating below the chip peak. Anything above $64,000 is a chip pressure zone.
Secondly, the distribution of chips since 38555.
After the market fell below the upper chip peak, the clearer support below is the middle chip peak (as shown in the figure), and the corresponding point is 51750, reaching the support area of 50000 - 53000.
Third, the chip distribution chart since 25,000.
It can be seen that 50,000 - 53,000 is just a short stay period in the rising process. If the macro market turns to decline, this may only be a fulcrum for a rebound, but it is not enough to become the bottom.
First, the distribution of chips since the highest point of 73777.
The Bitcoin market has fallen below the chip peak and is operating below the chip peak. Anything above $64,000 is a chip pressure zone.
Secondly, the distribution of chips since 38555.
After the market fell below the upper chip peak, the clearer support below is the middle chip peak (as shown in the figure), and the corresponding point is 51750, reaching the support area of 50000 - 53000.
Third, the chip distribution chart since 25,000.
It can be seen that 50,000 - 53,000 is just a short stay period in the rising process. If the macro market turns to decline, this may only be a fulcrum for a rebound, but it is not enough to become the bottom.
See original
Green Plum Coin: Bitcoin from the perspective of chip distribution
Today let’s look at Bitcoin from the perspective of chip distribution.
First, the distribution of chips since the highest point of 73777.
The Bitcoin market has fallen below the chip peak and is operating below the chip peak. Anything above $64,000 is a chip pressure zone.
Secondly, the distribution of chips since 38555.
After the market fell below the upper chip peak, the clearer support below is the middle chip peak (as shown in the figure), and the corresponding point is 51750, reaching the support area of 50000 - 53000.
Third, the chip distribution chart since 25,000.
It can be seen that 50,000 - 53,000 is just a short stay period in the rising process. If the macro market turns to decline, this may only be a fulcrum for a rebound, but it is not enough to become the bottom.
First, the distribution of chips since the highest point of 73777.
The Bitcoin market has fallen below the chip peak and is operating below the chip peak. Anything above $64,000 is a chip pressure zone.
Secondly, the distribution of chips since 38555.
After the market fell below the upper chip peak, the clearer support below is the middle chip peak (as shown in the figure), and the corresponding point is 51750, reaching the support area of 50000 - 53000.
Third, the chip distribution chart since 25,000.
It can be seen that 50,000 - 53,000 is just a short stay period in the rising process. If the macro market turns to decline, this may only be a fulcrum for a rebound, but it is not enough to become the bottom.
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Bitcoin closed with a small positive line on a shrinking volume. The pressure level of the 5-day line is 60,200. If today's daily line can close positively and the closing price is around 61,000, it will form a Dawn Star pattern, which can be considered to have stopped falling. Otherwise, it cannot be confirmed. Today is the release of unemployment rate and non-agricultural data. Whether it is bottoming out or falling relay, today's market is crucial. #btc走勢 #BTC下跌分析
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The Federal Reserve announced interest rates in the early morning. There is a high probability that the interest rates will remain unchanged. If the interest rate is raised, it will definitely be a major negative, but the probability is very small. There is no possibility of a rate cut this month, so the focus will be on Powell's speech. If the rate cut continues to be delayed, there will be no rate cut until the end of the year or even in 2024, which is also negative for the market. Only when the expectation of a rate cut is advanced is it positive. From the perspective of the K-line, the resistance level of Bitcoin's rebound is 59,000, and the support is 56,500, and it is not certain to stop falling. From the indicator, it is recommended to pay attention to the 7-day average of the weighted average funding rate. If this value is less than 0, the market may be close to stopping falling.
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Qingmeizhubi: Bitcoin monthly line closed with a negative line, there may be a sharp drop in the market!
Bitcoin market analysis
1. Monthly line bearish
Bitcoin's monthly line closed with a long shadow, covering the real body of the previous positive line. This is an obviously bearish K-line structure.
Therefore, the support of $59,000 is estimated to be difficult to maintain.
2. Possible time of change
Based on a simple calculation based on the Fibonacci cycle, the possible turning point is around May 7.
3. Judging from the DMI and ADX indicators, there is a risk of a sharp drop
As shown in the figure, this is the Bitcoin daily DMI and ADX indicator chart. The adx indicator flipped upward from the bottom and reached 32. adx is a trend indicator. This situation can be roughly understood as a downward trend or will be formed. There may be a period of accelerated decline, so contracts and short-term positions must set stop losses.
1. Monthly line bearish
Bitcoin's monthly line closed with a long shadow, covering the real body of the previous positive line. This is an obviously bearish K-line structure.
Therefore, the support of $59,000 is estimated to be difficult to maintain.
2. Possible time of change
Based on a simple calculation based on the Fibonacci cycle, the possible turning point is around May 7.
3. Judging from the DMI and ADX indicators, there is a risk of a sharp drop
As shown in the figure, this is the Bitcoin daily DMI and ADX indicator chart. The adx indicator flipped upward from the bottom and reached 32. adx is a trend indicator. This situation can be roughly understood as a downward trend or will be formed. There may be a period of accelerated decline, so contracts and short-term positions must set stop losses.
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Bitcoin closed with a long shadow on the monthly line, and it is estimated that the support of $59,000 will be difficult to maintain.
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Qingmeizhubi: Bitcoin monthly line closed with a negative line, there may be a sharp drop in the market!
Bitcoin market analysis
1. Monthly line bearish
Bitcoin's monthly line closed with a long shadow, covering the real body of the previous positive line. This is an obviously bearish K-line structure.
Therefore, the support of $59,000 is estimated to be difficult to maintain.
2. Possible time of change
Based on a simple calculation based on the Fibonacci cycle, the possible turning point is around May 7.
3. Judging from the DMI and ADX indicators, there is a risk of a sharp drop
As shown in the figure, this is the Bitcoin daily DMI and ADX indicator chart. The adx indicator flipped upward from the bottom and reached 32. adx is a trend indicator. This situation can be roughly understood as a downward trend or will be formed. There may be a period of accelerated decline, so contracts and short-term positions must set stop losses.
1. Monthly line bearish
Bitcoin's monthly line closed with a long shadow, covering the real body of the previous positive line. This is an obviously bearish K-line structure.
Therefore, the support of $59,000 is estimated to be difficult to maintain.
2. Possible time of change
Based on a simple calculation based on the Fibonacci cycle, the possible turning point is around May 7.
3. Judging from the DMI and ADX indicators, there is a risk of a sharp drop
As shown in the figure, this is the Bitcoin daily DMI and ADX indicator chart. The adx indicator flipped upward from the bottom and reached 32. adx is a trend indicator. This situation can be roughly understood as a downward trend or will be formed. There may be a period of accelerated decline, so contracts and short-term positions must set stop losses.
See original
Qingmeizhubi: Bitcoin monthly line closed with a negative line, there may be a sharp drop in the market!
Bitcoin market analysis
1. Monthly line bearish
Bitcoin's monthly line closed with a long shadow, covering the real body of the previous positive line. This is an obviously bearish K-line structure.
Therefore, the support of $59,000 is estimated to be difficult to maintain.
2. Possible time of change
Based on a simple calculation based on the Fibonacci cycle, the possible turning point is around May 7.
3. Judging from the DMI and ADX indicators, there is a risk of a sharp drop
As shown in the figure, this is the Bitcoin daily DMI and ADX indicator chart. The adx indicator flipped upward from the bottom and reached 32. adx is a trend indicator. This situation can be roughly understood as a downward trend or will be formed. There may be a period of accelerated decline, so contracts and short-term positions must set stop losses.
1. Monthly line bearish
Bitcoin's monthly line closed with a long shadow, covering the real body of the previous positive line. This is an obviously bearish K-line structure.
Therefore, the support of $59,000 is estimated to be difficult to maintain.
2. Possible time of change
Based on a simple calculation based on the Fibonacci cycle, the possible turning point is around May 7.
3. Judging from the DMI and ADX indicators, there is a risk of a sharp drop
As shown in the figure, this is the Bitcoin daily DMI and ADX indicator chart. The adx indicator flipped upward from the bottom and reached 32. adx is a trend indicator. This situation can be roughly understood as a downward trend or will be formed. There may be a period of accelerated decline, so contracts and short-term positions must set stop losses.
See original
Data: From the time the Fed stopped raising interest rates to the time it cut interest rates, the S&P 500 has historically averaged a 15% increase from the time the Fed stopped raising interest rates to the time it cut interest rates for the first time; five of the six times it rose (it fell in 2001). After the Fed cut interest rates, the average decline was more than 27% without exception.
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Judging from the daily and 3-day lines of Bitcoin, it seems that there will be a large fluctuation in the market. The overall probability of rebound is still high. The strong support is still around 64,500, and the strong pressure area is 71,500 - 72,000 (the yellow area of the liquidation map). This pressure area roughly coincides with the upper edge of the parallel channel. #btc
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Qingmeizhubi: Why do we say that 99% of the groups in the cryptocurrency circle are garbage?
People are emotional animals, and the cryptocurrency circle is particularly impetuous. When you join too many groups, you will face information overload and emotional interference. Therefore, I do not recommend that you join too many cryptocurrency groups, as it can easily lower your IQ.
From the theory of the mob, the IQ of a group is lower than that of an individual. When you are caught in a group, it is easy to lose your personal judgment and autonomy. So I have always believed that 99% of the groups in the currency circle are garbage.
If you want to run a good group, you must charge a fee. Even if it is only 10 yuan a month, you must insist on charging a fee. The purpose of charging is to raise the threshold, filter out those who want to post advertisements, and filter out those emotional people.
From the theory of the mob, the IQ of a group is lower than that of an individual. When you are caught in a group, it is easy to lose your personal judgment and autonomy. So I have always believed that 99% of the groups in the currency circle are garbage.
If you want to run a good group, you must charge a fee. Even if it is only 10 yuan a month, you must insist on charging a fee. The purpose of charging is to raise the threshold, filter out those who want to post advertisements, and filter out those emotional people.
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Qingmeizhubi: Pay attention to the rebound of Bitcoin in the range of 59,000 - 60,000
There is still one day left before Bitcoin halving. Market sentiment has quickly dropped from optimism to pessimism, and the greed index has also quickly fallen to 57.
The Bitcoin price also fell to a critical level.
Bitcoin market analysis
I think it is not appropriate to be overly bearish on Bitcoin in the range of 59,000-60,000 USD for the following reasons:
1. The market fell to the lower edge support of the parallel channel.
2. Reached the cost line of short-term holders.
3. The previous support, and the market entered 59000-60000 for the first time.
In summary,
The probability of the market rebounding at the current position is relatively high, and the stop loss should be placed below 59,000. If it falls below, stop loss and exit resolutely.
The Bitcoin price also fell to a critical level.
Bitcoin market analysis
I think it is not appropriate to be overly bearish on Bitcoin in the range of 59,000-60,000 USD for the following reasons:
1. The market fell to the lower edge support of the parallel channel.
2. Reached the cost line of short-term holders.
3. The previous support, and the market entered 59000-60000 for the first time.
In summary,
The probability of the market rebounding at the current position is relatively high, and the stop loss should be placed below 59,000. If it falls below, stop loss and exit resolutely.
See original
At that time, Bitcoin had multiple bottom divergences in 4 hours. If it does not fall below 59,000, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. If it falls below 59,000, stop loss and wait and see. If it rebounds, pay attention to the recent downward trend line. Only by breaking through here can there be room for a rebound. #btc
See original
Bitcoin is still uncertain about its decline, and the long-short ratio exceeds 2.0, indicating that the proportion of long positions is too high, which in turn increases the risk of decline, so the probability of a second test of the $60,000 support is relatively high. #btc
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Qingmeizhubi: Have Bitcoin and ETH stopped falling?
It has been 36 days since I suggested that ETH should be lightened up in the short to medium term around $4,000. For details, please see "Before the Cancun upgrade, let's talk about the position where ETH has risen."
It has been 30 days since I thought Bitcoin would rebound around $60,000. For details, please see "Why is it more likely that Bitcoin will rebound or stop falling at $60,000?"
It has been 11 days since I thought Tia would fall to around $7.
The market is always confusing and confusing, and the current market has reached a critical point.
Bitcoin market analysis
Let me first say the conclusion. I think Bitcoin will temporarily stop falling around $60,000, and Ethereum will probably stop falling around $2,800. Here are a few reasons.
It has been 30 days since I thought Bitcoin would rebound around $60,000. For details, please see "Why is it more likely that Bitcoin will rebound or stop falling at $60,000?"
It has been 11 days since I thought Tia would fall to around $7.
The market is always confusing and confusing, and the current market has reached a critical point.
Bitcoin market analysis
Let me first say the conclusion. I think Bitcoin will temporarily stop falling around $60,000, and Ethereum will probably stop falling around $2,800. Here are a few reasons.
See original
Qingmeizhubi: Have Bitcoin and ETH stopped falling?
It has been 36 days since I suggested that ETH should be lightened up in the short to medium term around $4,000. For details, please see "Before the Cancun upgrade, let's talk about the position where ETH has risen."
It has been 30 days since I thought Bitcoin would rebound around $60,000. For details, please see "Why is it more likely that Bitcoin will rebound or stop falling at $60,000?"
It has been 11 days since I thought Tia would fall to around $7.
The market is always confusing and confusing, and the current market has reached a critical point.
Bitcoin market analysis
Let me first say the conclusion. I think Bitcoin will temporarily stop falling around $60,000, and Ethereum will probably stop falling around $2,800. Here are a few reasons.
It has been 30 days since I thought Bitcoin would rebound around $60,000. For details, please see "Why is it more likely that Bitcoin will rebound or stop falling at $60,000?"
It has been 11 days since I thought Tia would fall to around $7.
The market is always confusing and confusing, and the current market has reached a critical point.
Bitcoin market analysis
Let me first say the conclusion. I think Bitcoin will temporarily stop falling around $60,000, and Ethereum will probably stop falling around $2,800. Here are a few reasons.
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