The Federal Reserve announced interest rates in the early morning. There is a high probability that the interest rates will remain unchanged. If the interest rate is raised, it will definitely be a major negative, but the probability is very small. There is no possibility of a rate cut this month, so the focus will be on Powell's speech. If the rate cut continues to be delayed, there will be no rate cut until the end of the year or even in 2024, which is also negative for the market. Only when the expectation of a rate cut is advanced is it positive. From the perspective of the K-line, the resistance level of Bitcoin's rebound is 59,000, and the support is 56,500, and it is not certain to stop falling. From the indicator, it is recommended to pay attention to the 7-day average of the weighted average funding rate. If this value is less than 0, the market may be close to stopping falling.
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1. Monthly line bearish
Bitcoin's monthly line closed with a long shadow, covering the real body of the previous positive line. This is an obviously bearish K-line structure.
Therefore, the support of $59,000 is estimated to be difficult to maintain.
2. Possible time of change
Based on a simple calculation based on the Fibonacci cycle, the possible turning point is around May 7.
3. Judging from the DMI and ADX indicators, there is a risk of a sharp drop
As shown in the figure, this is the Bitcoin daily DMI and ADX indicator chart. The adx indicator flipped upward from the bottom and reached 32. adx is a trend indicator. This situation can be roughly understood as a downward trend or will be formed. There may be a period of accelerated decline, so contracts and short-term positions must set stop losses.
