$UNI has dropped to the mean by 14%. The rebound has no volumeโI donโt believe it.
First, the chart. It fell from 10.199 to 8.444, dropping 17% over five days. Yesterday it rebounded to 9.196, and today it has pulled back again. Current price is 8.968, stuck between support at 8.71 and resistance at 9.196. Up or downโnothing.
The bearish candlestick is just starting; the direction hasnโt been chosen yet.
Market sentiment is cautious. In the past 24 hours, itโs down 1.98%, with trading volume of $328 millionโthis isnโt low. But on the 4-hour timeframe, volume is shrinking. The latest 4h candle only has $9.6 million in volume, which is 0.14 times. What does that mean? Previously, the average of the last 20 4h candles was about $60โ$70 million each; this one is under $10 million. Bulls donโt dare to chase, and bears arenโt in a hurry to dump. Everyone is waiting.
Watch the large-holder flows via the funding rate. +0.0081%/8hโpositive. That means longs are still paying shorts. The rate isnโt high, suggesting long positions arenโt heavy and it hasnโt become crowded. But it also suggests nobody is rushing to go long. Smart money is waiting. If the funding rate turns negative, that would be a signal that shorts are starting to add positionsโIโll be more cautious then.
Volume-price structure is the key. The candles from the drop starting at 10.199 show increasing volume candle by candleโ94M, 87M, 104M, 117M. Thatโs typical panic sell-off. What about the rebound? From 8.444, the next few candles have volumeโ70M, 105M, 98Mโnot small eitherโbut volume starts to shrink once the rebound reaches around 9.2. Then 41M, 31M, 39M, 21Mโdecreasing down to the current 9.6M. Rebound volume is drying up. Iโve seen this structure many times: high-volume sell-off, low-volume bounce that canโt carry throughโmost likely a continuation of the downtrend. Unless later thereโs a breakout above 9.196 with increased volume, this rebound is only a breath, not a turnaround.
On candlestick details: the 4h candle at 12:00 on September 30 is interesting. Open 8.899, high 9.196, low 8.748, close 9.013. Big range and it closed slightly above the middle. At the time it looked like a stabilization signal. But the next three 4h candles were consecutive small real bodiesโ8.832, 8.876, 8.79โmostly doji and small red/green candles. After the spike, there was no follow-through; bulls lacked stamina. The latest one opened at 9.058 and closed at 8.966โa small bearish candleโwith a volume ratio of 0.14. It probed up to around 9.08 and then retreated. The resistance at 9.196 is working.
UNI is Uniswapโs governance token, one of the oldest DEX projects in the DeFi sector. Itโs a flagship entry-level on-chain spot trading product for decentralized exchanges. But the token itself has no dividend mechanism, so its governance value is limited; the price mostly depends on sector sentiment and speculation. Recently the DeFi sector hasnโt had much of a trend, and UNI has been moving with the sectorโno independent logic.
My view is bearish.
Reason is simple: the sell-off with rising volume is finished, and the bounce with shrinking volume canโt lift it. A volume ratio of 0.14 suggests the market is basically lying flat. In the range between 8.71 and 9.196, if we choose a direction, I bet thereโs a higher chance of breaking down below 8.71. Once it breaks, we look to 8.444โthatโs the previous low. If that previous low canโt be defended either, then itโs the start of a new round of decline.
Niniโs plan: Donโt touch it if 8.71 doesnโt break. If it breaks, wait and see around 8.444 for signs of stabilization with volume. If there is, take a small long position; set the stop-loss at 8.3. Donโt chase the rebound. If itโs above 9.196, weโll talk again. At this level right now, Iโm staying put.
If you need a customized strategy, you can find Nini.
#UNI #DeFi #DEX