TON has announced the closure of its cross-chain bridge in 2026, which the market has directly priced as bearish, with prices fluctuating around 5.2. The funding rate remains below 0.01% — however, the on-chain USDT circulation has surpassed 7.2 billion, and the number of daily active addresses for Telegram payments has grown by 12% month-over-month. This narrative misalignment highlights the core contradiction of TON's current undervaluation.
1️⃣ On-chain data vs. bridge closure narrative divergence
The number of daily active addresses on TON has risen from 800,000 at the beginning of the year to 1.1 million now, an increase of 37.5%. Meanwhile, USDT circulation has expanded from 5.8 billion to 7.2 billion within three months, marking a 24% increase. These figures point to a fact: the use cases within the TON ecosystem (payments, DeFi) are expanding, while the closure of the cross-chain bridge essentially redirects external liquidity to the native chain. Comparing this to 2021, when Polygon closed its Plasma bridge to focus on zkEVM, its token rose from $0.03 to $0.07 in six months, a 133% increase — at that time, the market similarly viewed it as bearish, but the synchronous growth of on-chain daily activities and TVL ultimately corrected the narrative.
2️⃣ Funding rate and the cold signals from positions
Currently, the funding rate for TON perpetual contracts hovers around 0.005%, with open interest decreasing by 8% since the bridge closure announcement, indicating that professional funds are not betting on a direction. This low participation rate reduces expectations for dramatic volatility; however, if on-chain data continues to strengthen, short covering could become a short-term catalyst. Note: On the daily chart, TON has been consolidating in the 4.8-5.5 range for over three weeks, with 5.2 being the midpoint, and the direction will depend on whether it breaks the 5.5 resistance level.
3️⃣ Potential catalysts in the macro narrative
Telegram recently launched a native payment invite reward feature, allowing users to receive USDT rebates for TON payments, directly boosting USDT circulation. On-chain data shows that daily transaction counts have increased from 300,000 to 450,000, with 80% coming from small payment scenarios. Once Telegram releases its payment API in Q1 2025 for public beta testing, TON's payment narrative will completely overshadow the bearish impact of the cross-chain bridge closure, similar to Polygon's valuation reset following the announcement of zkEVM's mainnet launch.
4️⃣ Risk points: time window and liquidity trap
The bridge closure is set for September 2026, leaving an 18-month transition period. If during this time the growth rate of on-chain USDT circulation slows (for example, falling below 5% monthly growth), the market may reprice to reflect "liquidity exhaustion after the bridge closure." The current TVL is only $620 million, far below Ethereum L2's $2 billion level; if the Telegram payment ecosystem does not double the TVL in the next six months, the logic for narrative reversal will be tested.
Prices are consolidating around 5.2, with low funding rates, yet on-chain data is accelerating — this misalignment won't last forever. Either the on-chain data peaks and retreats, causing prices to seek support at 4.5; or when USDT circulation surpasses 8 billion, the market will start to reprice. Personally, I lean towards the latter, but we need substantial progress on the payment API as a trigger point.
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