Old Dog took a quick look at ORCL, which pumped 7.4% in the last 24 hours, with the price pinned at 226.91. The funding rate of 0.0143% might seem insignificant, but it’s positive and has been stable at four decimal places without turning negative. This perp with only 19.2k USDT in open interest has had a positive funding rate for hours, which essentially means the bulls are feeding off each other. Prices go up, the bulls pay, but who’s feeding these guys? I haven’t seen any real catalysts in the market, yet the trading volume exploded to 19.3 million USDT, more than doubling the average from the past few days, indicating that many are chasing, not lurking.
In this wave on the TRADIFI chain’s US stock sector, most assets are flat today, except for ORCL which soared 7 points by itself. This kind of independent rally is worth pondering; it’s likely not sector rotation but rather a single large fund propping up the price repeatedly. I checked the on-chain chip distribution, and although I don’t have the exact number of addresses, the open interest concentration for ORCL has always been high, with the top positions holding most of it. The depth for retail investors entering is actually quite thin. With a positive funding rate and crowded longs, those holding large positions are paying the fees to hold their positions, and once we see long upper wicks above 230, it could easily trigger a sell-off. From what I remember, a couple of months ago ORCL had a similar structure with a positive funding rate, small open interest, and then a sudden pump, followed by a 15-minute candle that wiped out the previous day's gains, leaving all the latecomers as fuel. Whether this will repeat depends on how the 230-235 area plays out.
To put it bluntly, the market is currently shouting that ORCL should push towards 240, but Old Dog has actually reduced my long positions down to just my base holding. My logic is simple: as long as the funding rate remains positive and the bulls are still paying, this rally is essentially using the capital of newcomers to cover costs. I’ve set my trigger line at 230; if this level repeatedly shows long wicks, or if a quick spike up gets smashed down, I’ll flip and go short, with my stop-loss just above 235. If it solidly breaks below 230 and the funding rate turns negative, it indicates that the bears can’t hold up against the squeeze, and that’s when it’s time to chase from the right side, but I’m not rushing into that. Given the current structure, it’s suitable to observe with half my position, not to be cannon fodder.
Last month, Old Dog held onto a long position in another positive funding meme coin and got schooled with a liquidation wave that was a stark lesson; that feeling is still stuck in my throat. This time with ORCL, whether it goes up or down, I won’t stubbornly fight when the funding rate is against me; I’d rather earn less than serve as an ATM for the whales.
Trading tags:
#BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM
#ORCL #ORCLUSDT $ORCL