Trump has just announced he will attend a crypto summit at the White House next week. In the White House press secretary’s exact words: “The President will deliver a milestone speech on the future of digital assets.” In the same week, Oracle (
$ORCL )’s share price reversed from a rebound peak of 159.26 and has since fallen back to hover around 142. These two things happening together are not a coincidence.
My view is that Trump’s new crypto policy is draining near-term liquidity from traditional tech stocks. Oracle—just by its name—gets cut first.
The funding rate is still positive at 0.00000712, which indicates that the remaining long positions are still paying. But the price has dropped 4.66% over the past 24 hours. That combination—price down plus funding positive—is a classic “longs trapped and adding” structure. The longs are averaging down against the trend to dilute their cost, but the price hasn’t caught up—they’re essentially footing the funding rate. Another layer of data: the current price at 142.95 is already down more than 10% from the rebound peak of 159.26 mentioned by TradingView, and during the same period, market attention has been entirely diverted to Trump’s crypto summit. A single-source CNBC report shows that in June, Trump was still buying traditional defense stocks like RTX; now he has turned the other way and is pushing crypto with full force. Institutional capital is following policy hot spots, so Oracle’s cloud-business valuation logic may be temporarily sidelined.
The strongest counterargument is that Oracle’s cloud database and AI collaboration business has a long-term fundamentals base. In Goldman Sachs’ report, it explicitly states that 2026–2027 are merely a cash-flow trough period. If the market returns to fundamental-based pricing, this area could be a dip. But at this stage, political narrative is overpowering fundamentals.
The second-order impact is simple: if Trump’s summit continues to bring positive signals for crypto, the crypto market could see a new leg up. Traditional tech funds would then be forced to reduce positions in defensive names like Oracle and add to crypto-related concept stocks. At that time,
$ORCL ’s counterparty wouldn’t be shorts—it would be public funds selling on rebalancing pressure.
What I’m doing now is waiting and observing. I’m not rushing to open a short because the price is already down 10% from 159. But I also won’t go long because the policy tailwind isn’t coming from here.
Invalidation conditions: If
$ORCL ’s share price manages to regain and hold above the prior high at 159.26, or if Trump suddenly pivots to criticize cryptocurrencies, then this round of the political-bearish logic would be invalid and would need to be reassessed.
Aggressive plan: If the price rebounds back to the 148–150 area, consider entering a small, lightly sized short position; 1x leverage is enough. Stop loss at 152, take profit at the previous low of 114.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #ORCL
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?