$HOOD 24 hours up 4.004%, price surged to 108.84, while the funding rate stays at a positive 0.000303. Simply Wall St, in a single-source report, shows that the brokerage’s expected earnings per share for the coming year have been cut from $1.60 to $1.29—yet it has simultaneously announced the acquisition of the crypto exchange Bitstamp.
This is the sharpest contradiction right now: the market is voting in favor of expanding Robinhood’s crypto business, while traditional financial analysts are lowering their profit forecasts. The bullish case is that buying Bitstamp can transform it from a zero-commission stock platform into crypto financial infrastructure, unlocking a higher valuation multiple. The bearish logic is straightforward: earnings forecasts are declining, suggesting weak growth in its core retail trading business, and that new lines of business can’t make up for it in the near term.
Looking at the funding structure, price is rising and funding is positive—this is a classic late-stage long/upswing driven by chasing. Each day, long positions pay funding fees to shorts, and the cost basis keeps accumulating. If, in the next earnings season, revenue from crypto integration doesn’t quickly materialize and the traditional business continues to weaken, then today’s narrative-based valuation will face pressure.
My view is that this rally already reflects the acquisition upside, and the risk-reward ratio of chasing higher from here isn’t attractive.
Trading tag:
#TradFi #链上美股 #HOOD
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?