fed

$WLD
အမေရိက ဖက်ဒရယ်ဘဏ်(Fed) က အခုချိန်မှာ အတိုးနှုန်းတိုး (rate hike) ဆီကို တကယ်ပဲ ဦးတည်လာနေပြီ

​လက်ရှိခဏအတွင်းကပဲ US PPI ဒေတာကို ထုတ်ပြန်ခဲ့ပြီး မျှော်မှန်းထားတဲ့ 5.3% နဲ့ နှိုင်းယှဉ်လျှင် 5.4% ထိ ရောက်ရှိကြောင်း မှတ်တမ်းတင်ထားပါတယ်။
​တစ်ချိန်တည်းမှာပဲ ဆီစျေးဟာ $100 အထက်ကို ကျော်ဖြတ်လာပြီး ရှိနေဆဲ ငွေဖောင်းပွမှု (inflation) ဖိအားကို မလွဲမသွား ပိုမိုတိုးမြှင့်စေပါတယ်

​ဒါပေမယ့် အလုပ်အကိုင် (employment) ကိန်းဂဏန်းတွေကတော့ အတော်လေး ခိုင်မာနေသေးလို့ Fed အတွက် လုပ်ဆောင်ရမယ့် လမ်းကြောင်း တိတိကျကျ တစ်ခုသာ ကျန်နေပါတယ်

​အတိုးနှုန်းကို တိုးပြီး ဒီ ငွေဖောင်းပွမှုကို ထိန်းချုပ်ပါ

​Fed က နောက်ထပ် နှောင့်နှေးခဲ့ရင် 2022 လိုမျိုး ပြင်းထန်တဲ့ အတိုးနှုန်းတိုးမှုတွေကို ပြုလုပ်ရမယ်ဖြစ်ပြီး စျေးကွက်တွေကို လုံးဝ ပျက်စီးသွားစေနိုင်ပါတယ်

$ETH
$BTC
#Fed #USGovernment #Market_Update

අවසන් පුවත්:

🇺🇸මීළඟ සතියේ ෆෙඩරල් රිසර්ව් එක පොලී අනුපාත ඉහළ දැමීමේ අවස්ථා 64% දක්වා ඉහළ යයි—නිෂ්පාදක මිල දර්ශකය (IPP) අපේක්ෂාවට වඩා ඉහළ ගිය නිසා.

$VTHO $ETHFI $GPRO 👀👀👀👀


#NewsAboutCrypto #Fed #USAugustPPIRisesLessThanExpected #SECApprovesNasdaqTexasCommodityTrustRule #bullish

ඇමරිකාව නවතම PPI දත්ත ප්‍රකාශ කළ පසු, ගෝලීය මූල්‍ය වෙළෙඳපොළ වහාම ප්‍රතිකූල ප්‍රතිචාර දක්වමින්, දිගින් දිගටම පවතින උද්ධමනයේ පීඩනය හමුවේ අධික බියක් ඇති විය. එක්සත් ජනපදයේ කෙටි කාලීන පොලී අනුපාත සඳහා අනාගත ගිවිසුම් පහත වැටුණේය; එයත් සමඟ වෙළෙඳාම් කරන්නන් අතර Fed (ෆෙඩරල් රක්ෂිතය) විසින් ඔක්තෝම්බර් මාසයේදී පොලී ඉහළ දමනු ඇති බවට ඇති පාහේ නියත ඔට්ටුවක් දක්වා මුදල් ප්‍රතිපත්ති නැවත මිලකරණයේ රැල්ලක් පැතිර ගියේය. එසේම, බ්‍රිතාන්‍ය මහ බැංකුව (BoE) විසින් පොලී අනුපාත ඉහළ දැමීම් 4ක් දක්වා සිදු කිරීමටද අපේක්ෂා කරනු ලැබේ.

මෙම ගමන් මග නිෂ්පාදන උද්ධමනයේ “අවතාරය” නැවත මතුවී, මුදල් ප්‍රතිපත්ති ලිහිල් කිරීම පිළිබඳ බලාපොරොත්තු වෙත තර්ජනයක් එල්ල කරන බව පෙන්වයි. තෙල් Brent මිල ඩොලර් 105/බැරල් සීමාව ඉක්මවා යෑම නිසා, ලෝක පරිමාණයේ නව වියදම්-තල්ලුව පීඩන වළල්ලක් ඇතිවීමේ කනස්සල්ල තවදුරටත් වැඩි වෙයි.

අවදානම් මඟහැරීමේ මානසිකත්වය ඉතා ඉක්මනින් මුළු මූල්‍ය වෙළෙඳපොළම ආවරණය කළේය. Nasdaq දර්ශක අනාගත ගිවිසුම් 1% කින් පහත වැටුණු අතර S&P 500 0,3% කින් පහත වැටුණේය. විශේෂයෙන්ම, පොලී අනුපාත ඉහළ මට්ටමක නවතිනු ඇතැයි ඇති අපේක්ෂාවන් හේතුවෙන් වටිනා ලෝහ කාණ්ඩය දැඩි විකිණුම් පීඩනයකට ලක් විය; රන් මිල 1,4% කින් පහත බැස, අවුන්ස් 4.340 USD ඉක්මවීමෙන් පහළට ගිය අතර රිදී මිල ද 4% කින් පමණ පහත වැටී, අවුන්ස් 64,55 USD මට්ටමට ළඟා විය.

ක්‍රිප්ටෝ මුදල් වෙළෙඳපොළ සඳහා, අතිශය දැඩි වූ මැක්‍රෝ පසුබිම සහ USD ද්‍රවශීලතාවය අඩුවීමට ඇති අවදානම, $BTC හි ප්‍රකෘති වීමේ කෙටි කාලීන ගමනට බාධකයක් විය හැක. ක්‍රිප්ටෝ ආයෝජකයන් අග්‍ර වශයෙන් ECB සභාපති Christine Lagarde ගේ ප්‍රතිපත්ති මාධ්‍ය හමුව සහ පොලී අනුපාත ප්‍රතික්‍රියා (බැඳුම්කර ලාභදරතා) වලින් පසුව එන අනෙක් ප්‍රතිචාරයන් සමීපව නිරීක්ෂණය කරමින්, ප්‍රවාහනය වන මුල්‍ය ප්‍රවාහ අවදානම නිවැරදිව කළමනාකරණය කළ යුතුය.

#fed #lam_phat #tai_chinh

🇺🇸 CPI WATCH: WILL THE FED HIKE OR HOLD?

The market is now focused on U.S. inflation. With Nonfarm Payrolls beating expectations and CPI becoming the next major macro catalyst, the Fed faces an important decision.

A hotter-than-expected CPI could strengthen the case for keeping monetary policy restrictive for longer. Rising inflation would likely push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, creating pressure on risk assets such as stocks and crypto. In that scenario, I would take a more bearish short-term view.

On the other hand, if CPI comes in softer than expected, markets could start pricing in a more dovish Fed. Lower inflation would reduce pressure on interest rates and could support stocks, gold and crypto.

Personally, I’m staying cautious before the CPI data. I prefer to wait for the actual numbers rather than trade purely on expectations.

📊 My bias: Neutral → Bearish if CPI comes in hot; Bullish if inflation cools significantly.

What’s your call?

🔥 Fed Hike or Hold? Bullish or Bearish?

#CPIWatch #Fed

අනුපාත ඉහළ යාමේ අවස්ථාව අද උදෑසන වෙනස් විය.

ඒළඹෙන සතියේ ෆෙඩරල් සංචිත (Fed) රැස්වීමේදී අනුපාත ඉහළ යාමක් සිදුවන බවට වෙළඳුන් 70%ක් දක්වා අවස්ථාව ඉහළ දමා ඇත.

මෙය වෙළඳපොළ අපේක්ෂාවන්හි වැදගත් පියවරක්.

මෙවැනි චලනයන් බොහෝවිට ද්‍රවශීලතාවයට ඇති සංවේදීතාව නිසා $BTC වැනි වත්කම්වල ශබ්ද (noise) ඇති කරයි.

මෙම දත්තයෙන් ඔබට වැඩි අවධානය යොමු කළේ කුමක්ද?

#Fed #Cripto #BTC

🔥 ပိုမိုပြင်းထန်တဲ့ PPI ကြောင့် BTC ကို ဖိအားပေးနေသည်

ဩဂုတ်လတွင် အမေရိကန်ထုတ်လုပ်သူ ငွေကြေးဖောင်းပွမှု (PPI) သည် အလျင်အမြန် တိုးလာခဲ့ပြီး ခေါင်းစဉ် PPI သည် တစ်နှစ်ထက်တစ်နှစ် 5.4% မြင့်တက်ခဲ့ကာ ဇူလိုင်လ 4.8% မှ တက်လာပြီး စျေးကွက်မျှော်မှန်းချက် 5.3% ထက် အနည်းငယ်သာလွန်နေသည်။ လစဉ် PPI သည် 0.4% တိုးခဲ့ပြီး အခြေခံအညွှန်းကိန်းများလည်း အမြင့်တွင် ဆက်လက်ရှိနေသည်။

FED HAWKISH BETS ပြန်လာနေ

ငွေကြေးဖောင်းပွမှု ပိုမိုပူနွေးလာသည့် ပုံရိပ်ကြောင့် ငွေကြေးမူဝါဒကို ပိုမိုတင်းကျပ်မည့် မျှော်လင့်ချက်များ တိုးတက်လာသည်။ CME FedWatch အရ လာမည့် အပတ်တွင် 25-basis-point Fed တိုးမြှင့်မှု ဖြစ်နိုင်ခြေသည် အပတ်အစောပိုင်းက ခန့်မှန်းအား 60% မှ 70% ဝန်းကျင်အထိ တက်လာကြောင်း ပြသခဲ့သည်။ ယခုအခါ စက်တင်ဘာ 15–16 FOMC အစည်းအဝေးမတိုင်မီ နောက်ထပ် အဓိက အချက်ပြမှုတစ်ခုဖြစ်သည့် သောကြာနေ့၏ CPI အစီရင်ခံစာကို စောင့်ကြည့်နေကြသည်။

BTC က ဖိအားကို ခံစားနေရ

ဘဏ္ဍာရေးအထွက်နှုန်း (Treasury yields) များ တက်လာသဖြင့် ဘစ်ကွိုင်း (Bitcoin) သည် ဒေါ်လာ 76,000–77,000 အနီးသို့ လျှောကျသွားသည်။ အမေရိကန် 30 နှစ် Treasury အထွက်နှုန်းသည် ၂၀၀၄ ခုနှစ်နောက်ပိုင်း အမြင့်ဆုံးအဆင့်ဖြစ်ပြီး ခန့်မှန်းအား 5.36% သို့ ရောက်ရှိခဲ့ကာ အန္တရာယ်ရှိ အာပတ်များ (risk assets) အပေါ် ဖိအားပိုတိုးစေသည်။

တစ်ချိန်တည်းမှာပင် အမေရိကန် စပေါ့ (spot) Bitcoin ETF များသည် စက်တင်ဘာ 8–9 အတွင်း ပေါင်းစပ်ထားသည့် အသားတင် ထွက်ထွက်ငွေ (net outflows) ခန့်မှန်းအား ဒေါ်လာ 166.8 သန်းခန့် မှတ်တမ်းတင်ခဲ့ပြီး၊ အားကောင်းတဲ့ ဝင်ငွေများ ရှိလာပြီးနောက် ထူးခြားသော ရပ်နားမှုတစ်ခုကို ပြသနေသည်။

နောက်ထပ်ဘာတွေဖြစ်လာမလဲ?

CPI ထုတ်ပြန်မှုက အတိုးနှုန်း တိုးမြှင့်မည့် မျှော်လင့်ချက်များကို နောက်ထပ် ပိုမိုခိုင်မာစေမလား—သို့မဟုတ် အန္တရာယ်ရှိ အာပတ်များအတွက် အသက်ရှူချောင်မှု ပေးလောက်အောင် လျော့ကျစေမလားဆိုတာ ဆုံးဖြတ်နိုင်သည်။

ဤအကြောင်းအရာသည် သတင်းအချက်အလက်ဆိုင်ရာ ရည်ရွယ်ချက်သာ ဖြစ်ပြီး ငွေရေးကြေးရေး အကြံပေးချက် မဟုတ်ပါ။ သင်ကိုယ်တိုင် သုတေသန ပြုလုပ်ပြီး တာဝန်ယူမှုဖြင့် ကုန်သွယ်ပါ။

#Bitcoin #BTC #PPI #Fed #CryptoMarket

$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC

$WLD
ෆෙඩරල් රිසර්ව් (Fed) සභාපති කෙවින් වර්ෂ්, ජැක්සන් හෝල්හිදී සාර්ථකව “හාකිෂ්” ප්‍රකාශයක් කළා—ඉතින් මූල්‍ය තත්ත්වයන්ව “කඩිනම්/ප්‍රතිරෝධක” ලෙස හැඳින්වීමට නම් “දැඩි ලෙස පීඩනයක” තියෙන්නේ කියලා වගේ නේද?

ඒකෙන් සැප්තැම්බර් පොළි අනුපාත ඉහළ නැංවීමේ ඉඩකඩ 35% සිට 57.5% දක්වා ක්ෂණිකවම පැන ගියා, ඒත් ආයෝජන ප්‍රතිලාභ (yields) වහාම ආපහු උඩටමත් උසස් වුණා

​අද, භාණ්ඩාගාරය (Treasury) සිය මිලදී ගැනීමේ (buyback) ප්‍රමාණය $6 බිලියන දක්වා තුන් ගුණ කළා. පළමු මැදිහත්වීමෙන් කලින් තිබුණ මට්ටමට yields දැන් නැවත ඉහළට ගිහින් තියෙනවා—සරලවම ඒක

​ජපානයේත් මේක දැනටමත් සිද්ධ වෙමින් තියෙනවා, මිතුරා. එහි අවුරුදු 2 හා 5 yields දැන් 31 අවුරුදු ඉහළම අගයන්ට ළඟා වෙලා. අවුරුදු 10 හා 20 yields όμως 1995 සිට ඉහළම මට්ටමේ තියෙනවා—ජාත්‍යන්තරය මුදල් අගය හා බැඳුම්කර වෙළඳපොළ පාලනය කරන්න හරිහෝ මැදිහත් වෙමින් නැවත නැවතත් ක්‍රියා කරනවත්

​අමෙරිකාව තුළ, පිටුපස තිබෙන සැබෑ පීඩනය හිතන්නේ බැරෑරුම්ම Treasury නිකුත්කිරීම්, දිගටම නිවා නොයන උද්ධමනය (inflation), සහ තවත් ඉහළ නැංවීම් ගැන ඉඟි දෙන Fed සභාපතිවරයෙක්

​මේ කිසිම දෙයක් වෙනස් වෙලා නැහැ. buybacks ගේ ප්‍රමාණය තව තවත් වැඩි වෙමින්: දෙගුණයක්, ඊට පස්සේ “අඩුම තරමින් දෙගුණයක්,” ඊට පස්සේ තුන් ගුණයක්—ඒ අතර yields එක දිගටම ඉහළ යමින්ම තියෙනවා

$ETH
$BTC
#KevinWarshDisclosedCryptoInvestments #Fed #USGovernment

中文版:
美联储又要加息了？历史告诉我们，单次加息不是牛市杀手，真正的危险在于持续的加息周期！大饼和以太坊可能会短期承压，但长期来看，如果通胀得到控制，反而可能迎来更好的环境。记住，市场最怕的不是确定性，而是不确定性！

#Fed #Bitcoin
$BTC $ETH

English:
Fed about to hike rates? History shows single rate hikes aren't bull market killers. The real danger lies in sustained tightening cycles! Bitcoin and Ethereum might see short-term pressure, but long-term, if inflation is contained, we could actually get a better environment. Remember, markets fear uncertainty most of all!

#Fed #Bitcoin
$BTC $ETH

📊 CPI Watch: Will the Fed Hike or Hold?
The latest Nonfarm Payrolls data came in stronger than expected, adding fresh uncertainty to the Federal Reserve’s next move. Now, with the upcoming CPI report just around the corner, the market is watching closely for signs of persistent inflation.
A stronger jobs market can give the Fed more room to keep monetary policy restrictive, but one strong employment report does not automatically mean a rate hike is coming. The CPI data could be the key piece of evidence that determines whether the Fed stays on hold or considers further tightening.
🔥 My View: Cautiously Bullish, but Ready for Volatility
If inflation comes in hotter than expected, I would expect pressure on risk assets and potentially stronger demand for the U.S. dollar. Gold could also experience short-term volatility as traders reassess the rate outlook.
On the other hand, a softer CPI print could strengthen expectations for easier monetary policy and provide support for stocks and gold.
For now, I’m watching CPI, Fed expectations, Treasury yields, and market momentum before making any major decision.
What’s your view? Bullish or Bearish? 📈📉
#CPIWatch #Fed

Will the Fed Hike Rates Again? My Take on #CPIWatch
The latest Nonfarm Payrolls just came in hotter than expected, and with CPI right around the corner, the tension in the market is real. Everyone is asking the same question: Will CPI trigger another rate hike?
Here’s my honest take: I’m leaning slightly bearish in the short term. With the labor market still showing strength, the Fed has enough room to keep rates higher for longer, or at least talk tough. If CPI comes in hot, we could see a nasty knee-jerk reaction in risk assets.
Because of this uncertainty, I’ve been rotating a bit of my portfolio into safety. I’m holding some Gold as a hedge against inflation and potential rate volatility. It’s not my biggest bag, but it helps me sleep at night.
On the crypto side, I’m not over-leveraging right now. I’m keeping my spot bags and waiting for the CPI data to drop before making any big moves. The market hates uncertainty, so I’d rather wait for the dust to settle than get liquidated trying to guess the Fed's next move.
What’s your strategy? Are you bullish and buying the dip, or bearish and waiting it out? Let me know in the comments! 👇

#CPIWatch #Fed #Inflation #trading

在强劲的非农就业数据公布后，分析师Brandon Brown近日指出，目前市场对美联储9月会议的利率预期仍充满悬念。随着美联储理事沃勒明确表态后续通胀数据将决定其投票立场，在核心数据出炉前，市场对于9月是否调整利率的预期基本处于五五开的状态。

这一动态之所以值得关注，是因为美联储内部对于接下来的货币政策路径存在明显分歧。从PPI和CPI向核心PCE通胀的传导效应来看，核心PCE约0.25%的环比增幅可能成为美联储选择按兵不动还是进一步采取行动的关键分水岭。如果后续通胀表现温和，美联储很可能会继续维持现有基准利率不变。

宏观金融市场上，收益率曲线反映出市场对长期利率的重新定价，预计到2027年中期累计变动可能略高于60个基点。不过分析也指出，即使经济数据持续保持强劲，短期内实际调整的节奏也很难超过3次，整体宏观流动性环境依然在博弈中保持相对平衡。

对于加密市场而言，$BTC 等主要资产短期内或将继续跟随宏观通胀预期震荡。流动性预期的反复会让资金情绪保持谨慎观望，投资者目前都在等待更明确的核心PCE及通胀指引，以判断后续行情的具体方向。 👀

#fed #lạm_phát #crypto

Will CPI make Fed hike rates again? #CPIWatch

Guys NFP data came stronger than expected and now CPI is next.
Honestly this week is going to decide market direction.

For me if CPI is hot then Fed has no choice but to hike again.
I am thinking 70% chance of one more hike.
But if CPI is cool then maybe they finally hold and we get some relief.

Now my view on market:
Short term I am bearish. Rate hike news always hits crypto and stocks first.
But long term I am bullish. Once Fed stops hiking, money will flow back into BTC and tech.

Right now in my portfolio:
Gold 30% - just for safety
Stocks - reduced tech, added some dividend names
Crypto - still DCA in BTC and ETH. Not panic selling

What do you guys think?
CPI ke baad hike hoga ya hold?
And are you bullish or bearish right now?

Drop your opinion below 👇
NFA

#CPIWatch #Fed #Crypto

Following the release of strong non-farm payroll data, analyst Brandon Brown noted that the market is pricing in roughly 15 basis points of Fed rate hike risk for the September meeting, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasizing that upcoming inflation prints will be the ultimate deciding factor for his vote.

This puts market expectations for September in a virtual 50/50 split ahead of key inflation reports. The Fed's policy committee is likely facing internal division, where the pass-through from upcoming PPI and CPI prints into core PCE will be critical—a monthly core PCE reading around 0.25% could serve as the dividing line between holding rates steady and another hike.

Across macro markets, the yield curve reflects projections of just over 60 basis points in cumulative tightening by mid-2027. However, even under resilient economic data, short-term hikes are unlikely to exceed three rounds, keeping long-term yields elevated and capping significant downside in the US dollar.

For crypto, this macro uncertainty keeps liquidity constrained in the short term. As long as the Fed's terminal rate trajectory remains clouded by upcoming inflation prints, $BTC and broader digital assets may experience choppy, range-bound price action until a clear policy direction emerges.

#fed #inflation #macro

Sau báo cáo việc làm phi nông nghiệp (NFP) vượt kỳ vọng gần đây, nhà phân tích Brandon Brown vừa đưa ra đánh giá đáng chú ý về lộ trình chính sách của Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Fed) trước thềm cuộc họp tháng 9. Động thái này diễn ra trong bối cảnh Thống đốc Fed Christopher Waller nhấn mạnh rằng các dữ liệu lạm phát sắp tới sẽ là yếu tố quyết định lá phiếu của ông, khiến thị trường hiện định giá khả năng thắt chặt khoảng 15 điểm cơ bản.

Điểm then chốt nằm ở chỗ kỳ vọng tăng lãi suất vào tháng 9 đang ở mức phân hóa 50/50, tạo nên sự chia rẽ lớn trong nội bộ Ủy ban Fed. Hiệu ứng truyền dẫn từ CPI và PPI sang PCE lõi sẽ là thước đo sống còn; nếu mức tăng PCE lõi dao động quanh mốc 0,25%, cán cân chính sách có thể nghiêng hẳn về việc giữ nguyên lãi suất thay vì tiếp tục thắt chặt.

Sự giằng co này đang khiến lợi suất trái phiếu chính phủ Mỹ biến động khó lường, đồng thời củng cố sức mạnh ngắn hạn của đồng USD. Dù đường cong lợi suất định giá mức tăng hơn 60 điểm cơ bản cho đến giữa năm 2027, dư địa cho các đợt tăng lãi suất ngắn hạn gần như khó vượt quá 3 lần, khiến tâm lý giới đầu tư tài chính truyền thống trở nên vô cùng thận trọng.

Đối với thị trường crypto, sự bất định từ Fed đang kìm hãm dòng vốn lớn đổ vào $BTC và các tài sản rủi ro. Thanh khoản ngắn hạn có xu hướng co cụm lại, khiến thị trường dao động trong biên độ hẹp cho đến khi bức tranh lạm phát PCE được công bố rõ ràng để xác lập xu hướng tiếp theo. 📊

#Fed #lam_phat #crypto

#CPIWatch

The NFP number definitely changed the mood for the Fed. Jobs came in stronger than expected, and now CPI is the next big piece of the puzzle.

Personally, I think the Fed is leaning more toward a hike than a hold right now. The labor market is still showing strength, while inflation is not completely back under control. August CPI is expected to show another monthly increase, so a hot number could make the Fed even more comfortable with a 25 bps hike.

But I’m not completely convinced yet. If CPI comes in softer than expected, the whole rate-hike story could change quickly. That’s why I’m watching core CPI especially closely.

For me, the key question is simple: strong jobs + sticky inflation = hike. Strong jobs + cooling inflation = maybe hold.

Let’s see what CPI brings. 👀

#CPIWatch #Fed #Inflation #NFP

🇺🇸 WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — U.S. MACRO 🔊🔉

🚨 CPI DAY. Crypto traders, stay alert.

Today’s calendar could trigger major volatility across BTC, ETH, altcoins, USD and Treasury yields.

⏰ 8:00 AM ET — 🛒 Kroger Earnings
⏰ 8:30 AM ET — 🇺🇸 August CPI + Real Earnings
⏰ 10:00 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment
⏰ 10:00 AM ET — 🇺🇸 Michigan Inflation Expectations
⏰ 12:00 PM ET — 🏦 Fed Financial Accounts (Z.1)

🔥 CPI IS THE MAIN EVENT

Yesterday’s PPI showed producer prices rising 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY, keeping inflation concerns elevated. (Bureau of Labor Statistics⁠)

Consensus for August CPI is around 3.4% YoY, with core CPI near 2.4% YoY. (Reuters⁠)

The reaction map:

📈 Hot CPI → Yields ↑ → USD ↑ → Fed hike bets ↑ → BTC/crypto risk ↓

📉 Cool CPI → Yields ↓ → USD ↓ → Fed pressure ↓ → BTC/crypto risk ↑

⚠️ But watch core CPI, not just headline inflation. Oil can push headline CPI higher while the core reading tells us whether inflation is spreading.

🛢️ OIL = THE WILDCARD

Brent has remained above $100, while geopolitical tensions continue to pressure energy markets. Higher oil prices can feed into transportation, goods and services inflation. (Reuters⁠)

🏦 FED WATCH

The September 15–16 FOMC meeting is now extremely sensitive to incoming inflation data. Markets have been increasingly pricing a potential 25 bps hike. (Reuters⁠)

💡 MY TRADER CHECKLIST

CPI → Core CPI → Treasury yields → DXY → BTC reaction → Altcoin reaction.

Don’t trade the headline alone.

The real signal is whether yields confirm the CPI move.

👀 What are you expecting today?

🔥 HOT CPI
❄️ COOL CPI
🎯 IN-LINE CPI

#CPI #Fed #CPIWatch $BTC

Trong phiên giao dịch châu Âu hôm nay, nhà phân tích Giulia Petroni đưa ra nhận định giá vàng có thể ghi nhận mức giảm hơn 2% trong tuần này, khi giá vàng kỳ hạn New York đã giảm 0.5% xuống 4,383.90 USD/ounce. Áp lực bán tháo xuất hiện trong bối cảnh giá dầu tăng vọt, lợi suất trái phiếu duy trì ở mức cao và căng thẳng địa chính trị tại Trung Đông tiếp tục đẩy chi phí năng lượng lên cao.

Diễn biến này trở nên đặc biệt quan trọng khi dữ liệu giá sản xuất tháng 8 của Mỹ tăng mạnh, làm dấy lên mối lo ngại về làn sóng lạm phát quay trở lại. Thị trường hiện đang dồn toàn bộ sự chú ý vào báo cáo chỉ số giá tiêu dùng (CPI) công bố vào tối thứ Sáu tới. Theo công cụ CME FedWatch, xác suất Fed tăng lãi suất vào tuần tới hiện đã vọt lên mức 67%, đảo ngược phần lớn tâm lý nới lỏng trước đó.

Sự dịch chuyển kỳ vọng chính sách tiền tệ đang nâng đỡ đồng USD và lợi suất trái phiếu kho bạc, tạo sức ép trực tiếp lên các tài sản không sinh lời như kim loại quý. Khi chi phí cơ hội nắm giữ tăng lên, dòng tiền phòng hộ ngắn hạn có xu hướng rút khỏi thị trường vàng để trú ẩn vào các công cụ lợi suất cao hơn.

Đối với thị trường crypto, áp lực từ kỳ vọng nâng lãi suất của Fed và tâm lý thận trọng trước thềm tin CPI có thể khiến dòng vốn mới vào $BTC bị chững lại. Nhà đầu tư nên chuẩn bị cho các kịch bản biến động mạnh vào cuối tuần, khi số liệu lạm phát thực tế sẽ quyết định hướng đi tiếp theo của thanh khoản toàn cầu.

#fed #vàng #lam_phat

CPI is expected to remain flat at 3.4%, while Core CPI is expected to come in below 2.4%.

The market is currently at a critical position. With sticky inflation and uncertainty around interest rates, investors don't have much confidence right now. They are in alert mode.

CPI also has a strong connection with NFP. The labour market is still strong, and the recent jobs data gave the Fed another reason to consider an interest-rate increase. But the final decision will depend heavily on the CPI numbers.

My view is that the Fed will hold rates. If MoM inflation stays around 0.2%, it remains manageable relative to the Fed's target, so there may not be an immediate need for a hike. Strong jobs data gives the Fed a reason to consider a hike, but stable CPI could prevent that.

If Core CPI comes in at 0.3% MoM, I would expect Treasury yields and the Dollar Index to jump first, while stocks, gold and crypto could come under immediate pressure.

There are two major fear factors:

1. The Fed could hike rates next week, which could strengthen the dollar.
2. Higher rates could tighten liquidity and trigger panic selling in risk assets, especially stocks and crypto. A stronger dollar could also put pressure on gold.

If Core CPI comes in at 0.1% MoM, I would consider it a bullish signal. However, confirmation would still be required before calling it a sustainable trend.

My actual trade view so far:

I will remain cautious before the CPI release.

For my portfolio, I would reduce my stock and crypto positions to limit exposure to volatility.

I would continue holding gold because of its safe-haven characteristics.

My decision making triggers are simple:

Core CPI at 0.2% or below → I expect the market to move bullish.

Core CPI above 0.2% → I expect bearish pressure.

For me, the CPI number will be the key trigger for deciding the next move.

#CPIWatch✨ #Fed #BTC☀ #Macro

$BTC Stop waiting on the sidelines.
Next week’s FOMC is highly likely to deliver a 25bp rate hike — the market is already pricing it in.
PPI came in hot, oil smashed through $100, core inflation is still stuck elevated. If tonight’s CPI adds any more heat, the odds will rocket past 80%.
Everyone still waiting for “confirmation” will watch the opportunity get snatched away the moment the decision drops.
The real money window only belongs to those who position early.
People already on the 25bp side have started moving.#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息 #fomc #Fed $BTC $ETH