bitcoincycle

$BTC | Bitcoin's Pi Cycle Bottom confirmed a signal on 1 September 2026 at A$108,493, and as of 3 November 2026 SatoshiMacro's tracker has the ratio at 1.100, inside the Bottom signal forming band of 0.96 to 1.43. The firing itself is old news by now. The question worth asking two months later is whether the real low already happened months before anyone noticed, and what the three prior firings say comes next.
## What does a 1.100 reading actually mean right now?
The indicator divides the 150-day moving average by the 471-day moving average, multiplied by 0.745. A reading above 1.00 means the 150-day line has already crossed back above the signal line, which is why SatoshiMacro classifies this as fired rather than forming. At 1.100 the ratio has climbed off its post-firing low and is working toward the 1.43 boundary of the Mid cycle band. It has not reached Mid cycle yet, which matters, because the next section is about what that gap has meant historically.
## Does the firing date tell you when the bottom actually happened?
No, and this is the part traders miss. Pi Cycle Bottom is a trailing signal built from two moving averages, so by construction it confirms a low well after the fact. The record on AUD prices backs this up directly: the 21 July 2015 firing at A$375 came roughly six months after the actual low of A$210 on 14 January 2015. The 22 May 2019 firing at A$11,017 came about five months after the A$4,401 low on 15 December 2018. The 24 March 2023 firing at A$41,145 came about four months after the A$23,595 low on 21 November 2022. On the desk we never treated a confirmation line as a timing tool; it tells you where price has been, not where it is going. If the September 2026 firing holds that same four-to-six-month lag, the actual cycle low sits somewhere in the March to May 2026 window, not in September.
## What happened in the twelve months after the last three firings?
The three completed firings returned 137 percent (from July 2015), 27 percent (from May 2019) and 148 percent (from March 2023) over the following twelve months. The September 2026 firing has no twelve-month record yet, so there's nothing to report there. My read is that the base rate looks attractive on paper but the spread between those three outcomes is the real lesson: 27 percent is not 148 percent, and a three-firing sample size gives you a pattern, not a law. Averaging the three gets you to roughly 104 percent, a number that is more useful as a sanity check against overconfidence than as a forecast.
## A worked range, not a prediction
Take a hypothetical A$10,000 allocated at the firing price. At the weakest of the three historical outcomes (27 percent), that position would sit near A$12,700 twelve months out. At the strongest (148 percent), it would sit near A$24,800. That is the honest spread SatoshiMacro's own data shows across three cycles, and it is wide enough that anyone treating the midpoint as a target is fooling themselves.
## Why I treat this as a confirmation, not a forecast
Four firings on AUD data is a thin sample. The 0.745 multiplier and the 150/471-day windows were fitted to past cycles, not derived from first principles, and both moving averages are trailing by construction, so every reading lags the real price action by months. The signal also missed entirely in the March 2020 COVID crash; it never fired at all that cycle. SatoshiMacro's own documentation is explicit that this works as one input alongside others, not as a standalone trigger, and I'd push back hard on anyone trading it in isolation.
## Where it sits inside the broader model
Pi Cycle Bottom is one of nine signals in the Valuation tier of the SatoshiMacro Model, carrying 25 percent of that tier's weight. All three of the documented historical bottoms registered inside the model's Accumulation zone, scored 15 to 30, at the time they occurred. That cross-check matters more to me than the Pi Cycle reading alone; a single indicator agreeing with itself across cycles is weaker evidence than several unrelated valuation signals landing in the same zone together.
## What this means for Australian holders specifically
If you bought spot BTC around the 1 September 2026 firing and want the ATO's 50 percent capital gains discount, you need to hold past 1 September 2027; sell a day earlier and the full gain is taxed. For anyone running this through a leveraged CFD instead of spot, ASIC's 2:1 retail leverage cap on crypto CFDs and the mandatory negative balance protection cut both the downside and the upside relative to an unleveraged position, and ATO guidance under TR 97/11 typically treats that kind of active CFD trading as ordinary income rather than a discounted capital gain. Spot exchanges named on SatoshiMacro's page, including Independent Reserve and CoinSpot, are AUSTRAC-registered, which is the custody-side check that matters more than fee comparisons at this stage of a cycle.
## What I would actually do with this reading
What I would actually do with a ratio climbing through 1.100 is treat it as permission to stop waiting for a lower print, not as a standalone buy signal. On the desk we never sized a position off one line crossing another; we wanted Pi Cycle Bottom, the Mayer Multiple sitting under 0.6, and Fear and Greed under 25 agreeing before committing real capital, and even then sized small enough that being wrong about timing wasn't the thing that broke the position. One signal is not a basket. If you're building a case right now, the question to ask isn't "has Pi Cycle Bottom fired," because it has. It's whether the other valuation inputs in SatoshiMacro's model are telling the same story, or whether this one line is doing all the work on its own.
https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-pi-cycle-bottom-indicator/?utm_source=binance_square&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=autopilot_article
#SatoshiMacro #PiCycleBottom #BitcoinCycle #Bitcoin

في تصريحات بالغة الأهمية أعادت ترتيب التوقعات الاستراتيجية لصناع السوق وحيتان الـ HODL لعام 2026، خرج الملياردير الشهير ومؤسس شركة SkyBridge Capital، أنثوني سكاراموتشي (Anthony Scaramucci)، ليوجه رسالة شديدة اللهجة للمشككين في البنية التاريخية لشارت الذهب الرقمي!
📊 تفكيك الرؤية الاستراتيجية لـ Scaramucci:
خلال حديثه التحليلي الأخير حول مسار السيولة الكونية ودورات التنصيف (Halving Cycles)، ركز سكاراموتشي على نقاط مفصلية:
⏳ الدورة الرباعية لا تزال حية (The 4-Year Cycle is Alive): أكد بوضوح أن النموذج الزمني للبتكوين $BTC الممتد لأربع سنوات لم ينكسر كما يروج البعض، وأن حركة التصحيح والهدوء الراهنة هي سلوك هندسي طبيعي جداً يسبق الانفجارات السعرية الكبرى.🎯 موعد الانفجار القادم (Q4 Re-ascension): توقع سكاراموتشي أن يبدأ البتكوين رحلة صعود عمودية استثنائية (Re-ascend) خلال الربع الرابع (Q4) من هذا العام، مستفيداً من اكتمال امتصاص معروض التنصيف وتدفق كاش الـ ETFs السيادية.🛑 العبارة الأكثر تدميراً في عالم الاستثمار: سخر سكاراموتشي من نغمة "هذه المرة الأمر مختلف" ("This time is different")، واصفاً إياها بأنها أسوأ أربع كلمات في تاريخ الاستثمار والمال، لأن القوانين الرياضية وسيكولوجية الأسواق تعيد صياغة نفسها دائماً بنسخ كربونية متطابقة.
💡 النظرة الاستراتيجية للمتداول الذكي: ما وراء توقيت التصريح؟
المحلل المحترف يربط كلام سكاراموتشي بالوقائع الاقتصادية لعام 2026:
🏦 تطابق التاريخ مع الحاضر: تاريخياً، بعد كل عملية تنصيف، يمر البتكوين بفترة تجميع مملة ونطاق عرضي يمتد لعدة أشهر لطرد الأيادي الضعيفة والرافعة الطفيلية (وهو ما عشناه تماماً في مايو الجاري)، لتبدأ الموجة الصاروخية الحقيقية في الربع الأخير من العام. سكاراموتشي يذكر الحيتان بأن "سباكة وول ستريت" لا تغير الرياضيات.🦅 التحالف التشريعي يدعم الرؤية: هذا التفاؤل يتقاطع مع "خارطة الطريق الوطنية للكريبتو" التي تجهزها واشنطن، والتقدم التاريخي لقانون الـ CLARITY Act في مجلس الشيوخ، مما يعني أن صعود الربع الرابع سيكون مدعوماً ببيئة قانونية صلبة لم تشهدها الدورات السابقة.
💬 سؤال التفاعل وإشعال النقاش بين الحيتان: تأكيد سكاراموتشي على أن دورة السنوات الأربع حية وأن الربع الرابع هو موعد التحليق التاريخي يعيد الأمل لثيران الشارت لعام 2026. برأيكم، هل تنجح قراءة سكاراموتشي التاريخية في التحلّي بالدقة ونشهد قمة تريليونية جديدة للبتكوين مع نهاية العام؟ أم أن كواليس الماكرو تحمل مفاجآت أخرى؟ شاركونا نظرتكم الاستراتيجية في التعليقات! 👇🏛️ الدورة الزمنية تسحق المشككين دائماً 🛡️📈
#BTC #AnthonyScaramucci #CryptoMacro #BitcoinCycle