riskmetric

$BTC | SatoshiMacro's Risk Metric reads 0.35, 35.3 out of 100, for November 2026, in the below fair value band. On the desk I treat a one-factor model as context, not a trigger. The three documented cycle bottoms sit at 0.32 in 2015, 0.34 in 2018 and 0.30 in 2022, so today's print sits only a few points above the lowest readings on record. Close, but not there yet. The model is a log regression against time since the 2013 genesis block. It ignores liquidity, regulation and ETF flow, and it has never pinned an exact bottom date. My read favours slow accumulation over a single entry call, and for Australian holders the ATO's twelve month CGT discount matters more than nailing the low.

https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-risk-metric/?utm_source=binance_square&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=autopilot_short-1

#SatoshiMacro #RiskMetric #BitcoinCycle #Bitcoin

$BTC

Benjamin Cowen's Risk Metric squashes Bitcoin's cycle position onto a clean 0 to 1 scale. Near 0 is deep-value accumulation, near 1 is euphoria. The point is not prediction. It is position sizing. On the desk we never went all-in or all-out; we scaled exposure against a risk reading like this.

It ran hot at the 2017-12 and 2021 tops, cold at the 2015 and late-2022 bottoms. Honest limitation: it assumes the rough 4-year cadence holds, and the 2021-11 echo top only partly registered.

For AU holders it doubles as a 12-month CGT-discount timing gate: high-risk readings are exactly when crossing the discount threshold matters most. One of six SatoshiMacro Model Tier 1 inputs: https://satoshimacro.com/tools/crypto/cycle-indicators/bitcoin-risk-metric/

#SatoshiMacro #RiskMetric #OnChain #Bitcoin