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treasuries
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Haussier
Partiellement vrai
If one CPI print can wreck your entire investment thesis, inflation might not be your biggest problem. Your position size might be.
The bond market has already moved. Has your risk management caught up? 👇
The attached TradingView snapshot for October 13 shows:
• US 10-year yield: 5.217%, versus 4.032% a year ago.
• US 30-year yield: 5.563%, versus 4.630% a year ago.
That’s roughly 119 and 93 basis points higher, respectively. Markets haven’t been sitting around waiting for September’s CPI.
My view: a good portion of the inflation concern is already priced in. That doesn’t mean all of it is—or that every move in yields comes from inflation.
I still lean toward higher Treasury yields and further pressure on existing fixed-rate bond prices. A softer CPI print could challenge that view in the short term.
But I don’t believe a long-term investment plan should need rewriting every time inflation lands or oil jumps. Persistent changes in the fundamentals deserve a rethink. Every nervous candle doesn’t.
If your plan only works when every number comes in friendly, how solid was that plan?
What would actually change your thesis after CPI—and what would merely test your nerves?
Source: TradingView US Treasury yield curves, October 13, 2026.
#CPIWatch #Treasuries #Inflation
If one CPI print can wreck your entire investment thesis, inflation might not be your biggest problem. Your position size might be.
The bond market has already moved. Has your risk management caught up? 👇
The attached TradingView snapshot for October 13 shows:
• US 10-year yield: 5.217%, versus 4.032% a year ago.
• US 30-year yield: 5.563%, versus 4.630% a year ago.
That’s roughly 119 and 93 basis points higher, respectively. Markets haven’t been sitting around waiting for September’s CPI.
My view: a good portion of the inflation concern is already priced in. That doesn’t mean all of it is—or that every move in yields comes from inflation.
I still lean toward higher Treasury yields and further pressure on existing fixed-rate bond prices. A softer CPI print could challenge that view in the short term.
But I don’t believe a long-term investment plan should need rewriting every time inflation lands or oil jumps. Persistent changes in the fundamentals deserve a rethink. Every nervous candle doesn’t.
If your plan only works when every number comes in friendly, how solid was that plan?
What would actually change your thesis after CPI—and what would merely test your nerves?
Source: TradingView US Treasury yield curves, October 13, 2026.
#CPIWatch #Treasuries #Inflation
The bond market has already moved. Has your risk management caught up? 👇
The attached TradingView snapshot for October 13 shows:
• US 10-year yield: 5.217%, versus 4.032% a year ago.
• US 30-year yield: 5.563%, versus 4.630% a year ago.
That’s roughly 119 and 93 basis points higher, respectively. Markets haven’t been sitting around waiting for September’s CPI.
My view: a good portion of the inflation concern is already priced in. That doesn’t mean all of it is—or that every move in yields comes from inflation.
I still lean toward higher Treasury yields and further pressure on existing fixed-rate bond prices. A softer CPI print could challenge that view in the short term.
But I don’t believe a long-term investment plan should need rewriting every time inflation lands or oil jumps. Persistent changes in the fundamentals deserve a rethink. Every nervous candle doesn’t.
If your plan only works when every number comes in friendly, how solid was that plan?
What would actually change your thesis after CPI—and what would merely test your nerves?
Source: TradingView US Treasury yield curves, October 13, 2026.
#CPIWatch #Treasuries #Inflation
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#cpiwatch
One thing I’m watching closely is how rising oil prices could influence the next inflation reading. Oil doesn’t just affect energy markets. It can also change inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and the Fed’s next move.
With Middle East tensions adding uncertainty to energy supply, the risk is that higher oil prices put fresh pressure on US headline CPI. But I wouldn’t assume a hotter-than-expected number before seeing the actual data. Energy prices can move quickly, and other inflation components may tell a different story.
For Treasuries, the reaction matters as much as the CPI number itself. If inflation comes in hot and markets start pricing in a more hawkish Fed, yields could move higher, putting additional pressure on Treasury prices. If the report is softer, that pressure could ease.
My approach would be to avoid positioning based on headlines alone. I’d watch the actual CPI release, oil’s price reaction, and the movement in Treasury yields before deciding whether to adjust exposure. I’d also keep position sizes and invalidation levels in mind because macro-driven moves can reverse quickly.
I’m especially interested in whether oil strength translates into persistent inflation concerns or proves to be a temporary supply shock.
What’s your view: will September CPI surprise to the upside and push Treasury yields higher, or has the market already priced in much of the risk?
$BTW $BTC $TRUTH
#CPIWatch #Oil #Treasuries
#cpiwatch
One thing I’m watching closely is how rising oil prices could influence the next inflation reading. Oil doesn’t just affect energy markets. It can also change inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and the Fed’s next move.
With Middle East tensions adding uncertainty to energy supply, the risk is that higher oil prices put fresh pressure on US headline CPI. But I wouldn’t assume a hotter-than-expected number before seeing the actual data. Energy prices can move quickly, and other inflation components may tell a different story.
For Treasuries, the reaction matters as much as the CPI number itself. If inflation comes in hot and markets start pricing in a more hawkish Fed, yields could move higher, putting additional pressure on Treasury prices. If the report is softer, that pressure could ease.
My approach would be to avoid positioning based on headlines alone. I’d watch the actual CPI release, oil’s price reaction, and the movement in Treasury yields before deciding whether to adjust exposure. I’d also keep position sizes and invalidation levels in mind because macro-driven moves can reverse quickly.
I’m especially interested in whether oil strength translates into persistent inflation concerns or proves to be a temporary supply shock.
What’s your view: will September CPI surprise to the upside and push Treasury yields higher, or has the market already priced in much of the risk?
$BTW $BTC $TRUTH
#CPIWatch #Oil #Treasuries
One thing I’m watching closely is how rising oil prices could influence the next inflation reading. Oil doesn’t just affect energy markets. It can also change inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and the Fed’s next move.
With Middle East tensions adding uncertainty to energy supply, the risk is that higher oil prices put fresh pressure on US headline CPI. But I wouldn’t assume a hotter-than-expected number before seeing the actual data. Energy prices can move quickly, and other inflation components may tell a different story.
For Treasuries, the reaction matters as much as the CPI number itself. If inflation comes in hot and markets start pricing in a more hawkish Fed, yields could move higher, putting additional pressure on Treasury prices. If the report is softer, that pressure could ease.
My approach would be to avoid positioning based on headlines alone. I’d watch the actual CPI release, oil’s price reaction, and the movement in Treasury yields before deciding whether to adjust exposure. I’d also keep position sizes and invalidation levels in mind because macro-driven moves can reverse quickly.
I’m especially interested in whether oil strength translates into persistent inflation concerns or proves to be a temporary supply shock.
What’s your view: will September CPI surprise to the upside and push Treasury yields higher, or has the market already priced in much of the risk?
$BTW $BTC $TRUTH
#CPIWatch #Oil #Treasuries
Crypto Perp Analyzer:
If rising oil prices push inflation higher, markets may expect higher interest rates, yet those same prices could slow economic growth. Will September CPI reinforce inflation fears or shift attention toward recession risks?
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Haussier
Vérifié
#cpiwatch
🚨 OIL ABOVE $106 — SEPTEMBER CPI COULD PUT MARKETS UNDER PRESSURE
Oil prices are rising again, and the timing matters. 🛢️
Brent crude has climbed above $106 per barrel as escalating Middle East tensions raise concerns about global oil supplies and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher energy costs could add fresh pressure to inflation just as markets watch September’s U.S. CPI report for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move.
📊 Here’s what matters now:
🛢️ Oil prices: If crude continues climbing, higher fuel and transportation costs could put additional pressure on consumers and businesses.
📈 Inflation risk: A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could challenge expectations that inflation is cooling.
🏦 Treasury yields: If traders anticipate tighter Fed policy, Treasury yields could rise, putting pressure on existing bond prices. Funds such as $TBT and $TMF may attract attention as traders assess different rate scenarios.
⚠️ The other side: A softer CPI reading or easing oil prices could reduce inflation concerns and support a recovery in Treasury bonds.
The key is to watch the data rather than react to headlines alone. Oil, inflation expectations, and Treasury yields could all influence the next market move.
My focus is on how Treasury yields react to the CPI release, because that reaction may reveal whether inflation fears are gaining strength or beginning to fade.
#CPIWatch👀 #OilPrices #Treasuries $CL
#cpiwatch
🚨 OIL ABOVE $106 — SEPTEMBER CPI COULD PUT MARKETS UNDER PRESSURE
Oil prices are rising again, and the timing matters. 🛢️
Brent crude has climbed above $106 per barrel as escalating Middle East tensions raise concerns about global oil supplies and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher energy costs could add fresh pressure to inflation just as markets watch September’s U.S. CPI report for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move.
📊 Here’s what matters now:
🛢️ Oil prices: If crude continues climbing, higher fuel and transportation costs could put additional pressure on consumers and businesses.
📈 Inflation risk: A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could challenge expectations that inflation is cooling.
🏦 Treasury yields: If traders anticipate tighter Fed policy, Treasury yields could rise, putting pressure on existing bond prices. Funds such as $TBT and $TMF may attract attention as traders assess different rate scenarios.
⚠️ The other side: A softer CPI reading or easing oil prices could reduce inflation concerns and support a recovery in Treasury bonds.
The key is to watch the data rather than react to headlines alone. Oil, inflation expectations, and Treasury yields could all influence the next market move.
My focus is on how Treasury yields react to the CPI release, because that reaction may reveal whether inflation fears are gaining strength or beginning to fade.
#CPIWatch👀 #OilPrices #Treasuries $CL
🚨 OIL ABOVE $106 — SEPTEMBER CPI COULD PUT MARKETS UNDER PRESSURE
Oil prices are rising again, and the timing matters. 🛢️
Brent crude has climbed above $106 per barrel as escalating Middle East tensions raise concerns about global oil supplies and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher energy costs could add fresh pressure to inflation just as markets watch September’s U.S. CPI report for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move.
📊 Here’s what matters now:
🛢️ Oil prices: If crude continues climbing, higher fuel and transportation costs could put additional pressure on consumers and businesses.
📈 Inflation risk: A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could challenge expectations that inflation is cooling.
🏦 Treasury yields: If traders anticipate tighter Fed policy, Treasury yields could rise, putting pressure on existing bond prices. Funds such as $TBT and $TMF may attract attention as traders assess different rate scenarios.
⚠️ The other side: A softer CPI reading or easing oil prices could reduce inflation concerns and support a recovery in Treasury bonds.
The key is to watch the data rather than react to headlines alone. Oil, inflation expectations, and Treasury yields could all influence the next market move.
My focus is on how Treasury yields react to the CPI release, because that reaction may reveal whether inflation fears are gaining strength or beginning to fade.
#CPIWatch👀 #OilPrices #Treasuries $CL
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9k
🚨 WILL SEPTEMBER CPI SHAKE OIL & TREASURIES?
All eyes are on U.S. inflation! 🇺🇸
📊 Headline CPI forecast: 3.6% YoY vs. 3.4% previously.
🔥 Monthly CPI: Expected at 0.6%, up from 0.4%.
⚡ Core CPI: Forecast at 0.2%, potentially easing underlying inflation pressure.
Oil and gasoline prices are driving inflation fears, while Treasury yields could react sharply to the numbers.
📈 Hot CPI = yields and dollar could rise.
📉 Cooler core CPI = potential relief for risk assets, including crypto.
The real question: Will inflation shock markets, or open the door to a bullish rebound? 👀
$BTC $TRUTH $ZEC
#CPIWatch #CPI #Oil #Treasuries #Bitcoin
🚨 WILL SEPTEMBER CPI SHAKE OIL & TREASURIES?
All eyes are on U.S. inflation! 🇺🇸
📊 Headline CPI forecast: 3.6% YoY vs. 3.4% previously.
🔥 Monthly CPI: Expected at 0.6%, up from 0.4%.
⚡ Core CPI: Forecast at 0.2%, potentially easing underlying inflation pressure.
Oil and gasoline prices are driving inflation fears, while Treasury yields could react sharply to the numbers.
📈 Hot CPI = yields and dollar could rise.
📉 Cooler core CPI = potential relief for risk assets, including crypto.
The real question: Will inflation shock markets, or open the door to a bullish rebound? 👀
$BTC $TRUTH $ZEC
#CPIWatch #CPI #Oil #Treasuries #Bitcoin
All eyes are on U.S. inflation! 🇺🇸
📊 Headline CPI forecast: 3.6% YoY vs. 3.4% previously.
🔥 Monthly CPI: Expected at 0.6%, up from 0.4%.
⚡ Core CPI: Forecast at 0.2%, potentially easing underlying inflation pressure.
Oil and gasoline prices are driving inflation fears, while Treasury yields could react sharply to the numbers.
📈 Hot CPI = yields and dollar could rise.
📉 Cooler core CPI = potential relief for risk assets, including crypto.
The real question: Will inflation shock markets, or open the door to a bullish rebound? 👀
$BTC $TRUTH $ZEC
#CPIWatch #CPI #Oil #Treasuries #Bitcoin
Oil and gasoline prices
U.S. inflation! 🇺🇸
Monthly CPI
Headline CPI forecast: 3.6%
10 heure(s) restante(s)
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Haussier
Vérifié
#cpiwatch
🚨 OIL IS RISING. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE RISING. ARE TREASURY YIELDS NEXT?
The September CPI report is approaching at a time when Middle East tensions are putting energy markets under pressure. And here's the connection traders shouldn't ignore: higher oil prices can feed into inflation, while hotter inflation can push Treasury yields higher.
🛢️ THE OIL FACTOR
If disruptions to energy shipments continue, oil could remain elevated. That would add pressure to fuel costs and make the next inflation reading especially important. But if tensions ease or supply recovers, oil could give back some of its gains.
📊 THE CPI TEST
The key isn't simply whether inflation rises. It's whether September CPI comes in hotter than the market expects.
🔥 IF CPI SURPRISES TO THE UPSIDE:
Markets could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts or price in tighter policy.
Treasury yields could move higher.
Longer-duration Treasury funds could face more pressure.
🟢 IF CPI COMES IN COOLER:
Rate expectations could ease.
Treasury yields could fall.
Treasury prices could recover as bond-market pressure fades.
⚠️ MY MARKET VIEW: I would avoid chasing oil after a sharp move and watch the CPI release before making a major change to Treasury exposure. The actual data, market expectations, and the reaction in yields matter more than headlines alone.
The real risk is that traders focus on oil while overlooking what the inflation surprise could mean for bonds.
What are you watching more closely into CPI: another leg higher in oil, or a breakout in Treasury yields?
#CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries $CL
#cpiwatch
🚨 OIL IS RISING. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE RISING. ARE TREASURY YIELDS NEXT?
The September CPI report is approaching at a time when Middle East tensions are putting energy markets under pressure. And here's the connection traders shouldn't ignore: higher oil prices can feed into inflation, while hotter inflation can push Treasury yields higher.
🛢️ THE OIL FACTOR
If disruptions to energy shipments continue, oil could remain elevated. That would add pressure to fuel costs and make the next inflation reading especially important. But if tensions ease or supply recovers, oil could give back some of its gains.
📊 THE CPI TEST
The key isn't simply whether inflation rises. It's whether September CPI comes in hotter than the market expects.
🔥 IF CPI SURPRISES TO THE UPSIDE:
Markets could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts or price in tighter policy.
Treasury yields could move higher.
Longer-duration Treasury funds could face more pressure.
🟢 IF CPI COMES IN COOLER:
Rate expectations could ease.
Treasury yields could fall.
Treasury prices could recover as bond-market pressure fades.
⚠️ MY MARKET VIEW: I would avoid chasing oil after a sharp move and watch the CPI release before making a major change to Treasury exposure. The actual data, market expectations, and the reaction in yields matter more than headlines alone.
The real risk is that traders focus on oil while overlooking what the inflation surprise could mean for bonds.
What are you watching more closely into CPI: another leg higher in oil, or a breakout in Treasury yields?
#CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries $CL
🚨 OIL IS RISING. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE RISING. ARE TREASURY YIELDS NEXT?
The September CPI report is approaching at a time when Middle East tensions are putting energy markets under pressure. And here's the connection traders shouldn't ignore: higher oil prices can feed into inflation, while hotter inflation can push Treasury yields higher.
🛢️ THE OIL FACTOR
If disruptions to energy shipments continue, oil could remain elevated. That would add pressure to fuel costs and make the next inflation reading especially important. But if tensions ease or supply recovers, oil could give back some of its gains.
📊 THE CPI TEST
The key isn't simply whether inflation rises. It's whether September CPI comes in hotter than the market expects.
🔥 IF CPI SURPRISES TO THE UPSIDE:
Markets could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts or price in tighter policy.
Treasury yields could move higher.
Longer-duration Treasury funds could face more pressure.
🟢 IF CPI COMES IN COOLER:
Rate expectations could ease.
Treasury yields could fall.
Treasury prices could recover as bond-market pressure fades.
⚠️ MY MARKET VIEW: I would avoid chasing oil after a sharp move and watch the CPI release before making a major change to Treasury exposure. The actual data, market expectations, and the reaction in yields matter more than headlines alone.
The real risk is that traders focus on oil while overlooking what the inflation surprise could mean for bonds.
What are you watching more closely into CPI: another leg higher in oil, or a breakout in Treasury yields?
#CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries $CL
AngelOfCrypto_-:
that's awesome
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🔥 Hot CPI? Watch whether yields agree before acting.
My conditional bearish-bond scenario needs two things: inflation above consensus and a sustained rise in long-term Treasury yields.
For traders watching the U.S.-listed $TBT
{future}(TBTUSDT)
{etf_us}(TBT.ETF)
ETF, an illustrative plan is:
✅ After the regular U.S. session opens, mark the first 15-minute range.
✅ Wait for a later 15-minute close above its high.
✅ Look for a retest that holds before considering entry.
🛑 Define a stop below the retest low.
🎯 Only consider the setup if nearby resistance leaves room for at least twice the planned risk.
If yields reverse or TBT falls back into the range, reassess.
TBT targets −2× its Treasury index’s daily return. It is not a direct bet on the CPI number, and multi-day results can differ substantially.
Pre-release scenario—not an active signal.
#CPIWatch #Treasuries #TBT #TradingPlan
🔥 Hot CPI? Watch whether yields agree before acting.
My conditional bearish-bond scenario needs two things: inflation above consensus and a sustained rise in long-term Treasury yields.
For traders watching the U.S.-listed $TBT
ETF, an illustrative plan is:
✅ After the regular U.S. session opens, mark the first 15-minute range.
✅ Wait for a later 15-minute close above its high.
✅ Look for a retest that holds before considering entry.
🛑 Define a stop below the retest low.
🎯 Only consider the setup if nearby resistance leaves room for at least twice the planned risk.
If yields reverse or TBT falls back into the range, reassess.
TBT targets −2× its Treasury index’s daily return. It is not a direct bet on the CPI number, and multi-day results can differ substantially.
Pre-release scenario—not an active signal.
#CPIWatch #Treasuries #TBT #TradingPlan
My conditional bearish-bond scenario needs two things: inflation above consensus and a sustained rise in long-term Treasury yields.
For traders watching the U.S.-listed $TBT
ETF, an illustrative plan is:
✅ After the regular U.S. session opens, mark the first 15-minute range.
✅ Wait for a later 15-minute close above its high.
✅ Look for a retest that holds before considering entry.
🛑 Define a stop below the retest low.
🎯 Only consider the setup if nearby resistance leaves room for at least twice the planned risk.
If yields reverse or TBT falls back into the range, reassess.
TBT targets −2× its Treasury index’s daily return. It is not a direct bet on the CPI number, and multi-day results can differ substantially.
Pre-release scenario—not an active signal.
#CPIWatch #Treasuries #TBT #TradingPlan
TBTETF-0,08%
TBT-1,60%
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🛢️ OIL IS RISING — ARE TREASURY YIELDS NEXT?
Middle East tensions are pressuring oil prices, raising concerns ahead of the September CPI report.
📈 HOTTER CPI: Markets may price in fewer Fed rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and bond prices lower.
📉 COOLER CPI: Yields could fall, potentially supporting Treasury prices.
⚠️ MY MARKET VIEW: Avoid chasing oil's rally. Watch the CPI surprise and Treasury yield reaction before adjusting bond exposure.
The key question: Will rising oil fuel inflation and trigger the next breakout in Treasury yields?
What are you watching — oil prices or Treasury yields?
#CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries $CL
🛢️ OIL IS RISING — ARE TREASURY YIELDS NEXT?
Middle East tensions are pressuring oil prices, raising concerns ahead of the September CPI report.
📈 HOTTER CPI: Markets may price in fewer Fed rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and bond prices lower.
📉 COOLER CPI: Yields could fall, potentially supporting Treasury prices.
⚠️ MY MARKET VIEW: Avoid chasing oil's rally. Watch the CPI surprise and Treasury yield reaction before adjusting bond exposure.
The key question: Will rising oil fuel inflation and trigger the next breakout in Treasury yields?
What are you watching — oil prices or Treasury yields?
#CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries $CL
Middle East tensions are pressuring oil prices, raising concerns ahead of the September CPI report.
📈 HOTTER CPI: Markets may price in fewer Fed rate cuts, pushing Treasury yields higher and bond prices lower.
📉 COOLER CPI: Yields could fall, potentially supporting Treasury prices.
⚠️ MY MARKET VIEW: Avoid chasing oil's rally. Watch the CPI surprise and Treasury yield reaction before adjusting bond exposure.
The key question: Will rising oil fuel inflation and trigger the next breakout in Treasury yields?
What are you watching — oil prices or Treasury yields?
#CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries $CL
37
#CPIWatch — OIL, INFLATION & TREASURY YIELDS: THE NEXT BIG MARKET TEST!Markets are heading into a crucial inflation event as geopolitical tensions keep energy prices elevated. The big question is whether rising energy costs will push inflation expectations higher — and put renewed pressure on U.S. Treasury yields.
But there’s a twist: oil and Treasury yields pulled back on October 13, showing that markets are reacting to supply expectations and policy outlooks, not just geopolitical headlines.
🛢️ 1. THE OIL FACTOR — $CL
Brent crude recently traded above $100 per barrel as Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions raised supply concerns. On October 13, oil prices eased as traders assessed potential increases in Russian fuel supplies.
🔴 If supply disruptions worsen, oil could climb again and add pressure to headline inflation.
🟢 If supply improves or tensions ease, crude could retreat and reduce some inflation concerns.
📊 2. THE SEPTEMBER CPI TEST
The U.S. September CPI report is scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The previous report showed annual inflation at 3.4% in August. Economists are watching for another increase, partly because of elevated energy costs.
🔥 IF CPI COMES IN HOTTER THAN EXPECTED:
Markets could scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts.Treasury yields could rise as investors reassess the inflation outlook.Longer-duration bond funds could face renewed price pressure.
🟢 IF CPI COMES IN COOLER THAN EXPECTED:
Expectations for tighter monetary policy could ease.Treasury yields could fall.Bond prices could recover as inflation fears cool.
🏦 3. WHY TREASURY YIELDS MATTER
Recent trading saw the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near 5.19%, after retreating from higher levels.
Higher yields can increase borrowing costs, put pressure on stock valuations, and tighten financial conditions. They can also influence the U.S. dollar and investor appetite for risk assets.
However, the CPI headline is only one factor. Core inflation, employment data, Fed guidance, and the bond market’s existing expectations will also matter.
⚠️ 4. WHAT TRADERS SHOULD WATCH
✅ Brent crude and WTI price movements.
✅ Headline CPI versus market expectations.
✅ Core CPI for signs of broader inflation pressure.
✅ The 10-year Treasury yield after the release.
✅ The dollar’s reaction and changes in Fed rate expectations.
💡 MY MARKET VIEW
I would avoid chasing oil after a sharp move or making a major Treasury position change based on headlines alone. The key is whether the CPI report surprises markets and whether yields confirm the move.
A hot reading could renew pressure on bonds, while a cooler report could offer relief. Neither outcome is guaranteed, and markets can move in the opposite direction if expectations are already priced in.
👀 THE BIG QUESTION: What are you watching most closely ahead of CPI — another move higher in oil, or a breakout in Treasury yields?
Share your view below! 👇
#cpiwatch #CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries
$CL
⚠️ Educational purposes only. Not financial advice (NFA). Always do your own research (DYOR).
#CPIWatch — OIL, INFLATION & TREASURY YIELDS: THE NEXT BIG MARKET TEST!
Markets are heading into a crucial inflation event as geopolitical tensions keep energy prices elevated. The big question is whether rising energy costs will push inflation expectations higher — and put renewed pressure on U.S. Treasury yields.
But there’s a twist: oil and Treasury yields pulled back on October 13, showing that markets are reacting to supply expectations and policy outlooks, not just geopolitical headlines.
🛢️ 1. THE OIL FACTOR — $CL
Brent crude recently traded above $100 per barrel as Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions raised supply concerns. On October 13, oil prices eased as traders assessed potential increases in Russian fuel supplies.
🔴 If supply disruptions worsen, oil could climb again and add pressure to headline inflation.
🟢 If supply improves or tensions ease, crude could retreat and reduce some inflation concerns.
📊 2. THE SEPTEMBER CPI TEST
The U.S. September CPI report is scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The previous report showed annual inflation at 3.4% in August. Economists are watching for another increase, partly because of elevated energy costs.
🔥 IF CPI COMES IN HOTTER THAN EXPECTED:
Markets could scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts.Treasury yields could rise as investors reassess the inflation outlook.Longer-duration bond funds could face renewed price pressure.
🟢 IF CPI COMES IN COOLER THAN EXPECTED:
Expectations for tighter monetary policy could ease.Treasury yields could fall.Bond prices could recover as inflation fears cool.
🏦 3. WHY TREASURY YIELDS MATTER
Recent trading saw the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near 5.19%, after retreating from higher levels.
Higher yields can increase borrowing costs, put pressure on stock valuations, and tighten financial conditions. They can also influence the U.S. dollar and investor appetite for risk assets.
However, the CPI headline is only one factor. Core inflation, employment data, Fed guidance, and the bond market’s existing expectations will also matter.
⚠️ 4. WHAT TRADERS SHOULD WATCH
✅ Brent crude and WTI price movements.
✅ Headline CPI versus market expectations.
✅ Core CPI for signs of broader inflation pressure.
✅ The 10-year Treasury yield after the release.
✅ The dollar’s reaction and changes in Fed rate expectations.
💡 MY MARKET VIEW
I would avoid chasing oil after a sharp move or making a major Treasury position change based on headlines alone. The key is whether the CPI report surprises markets and whether yields confirm the move.
A hot reading could renew pressure on bonds, while a cooler report could offer relief. Neither outcome is guaranteed, and markets can move in the opposite direction if expectations are already priced in.
👀 THE BIG QUESTION: What are you watching most closely ahead of CPI — another move higher in oil, or a breakout in Treasury yields?
Share your view below! 👇
#cpiwatch #CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries
$CL
⚠️ Educational purposes only. Not financial advice (NFA). Always do your own research (DYOR).
But there’s a twist: oil and Treasury yields pulled back on October 13, showing that markets are reacting to supply expectations and policy outlooks, not just geopolitical headlines.
🛢️ 1. THE OIL FACTOR — $CL
Brent crude recently traded above $100 per barrel as Middle East tensions and shipping disruptions raised supply concerns. On October 13, oil prices eased as traders assessed potential increases in Russian fuel supplies.
🔴 If supply disruptions worsen, oil could climb again and add pressure to headline inflation.
🟢 If supply improves or tensions ease, crude could retreat and reduce some inflation concerns.
📊 2. THE SEPTEMBER CPI TEST
The U.S. September CPI report is scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The previous report showed annual inflation at 3.4% in August. Economists are watching for another increase, partly because of elevated energy costs.
🔥 IF CPI COMES IN HOTTER THAN EXPECTED:
Markets could scale back expectations for Fed rate cuts.Treasury yields could rise as investors reassess the inflation outlook.Longer-duration bond funds could face renewed price pressure.
🟢 IF CPI COMES IN COOLER THAN EXPECTED:
Expectations for tighter monetary policy could ease.Treasury yields could fall.Bond prices could recover as inflation fears cool.
🏦 3. WHY TREASURY YIELDS MATTER
Recent trading saw the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield near 5.19%, after retreating from higher levels.
Higher yields can increase borrowing costs, put pressure on stock valuations, and tighten financial conditions. They can also influence the U.S. dollar and investor appetite for risk assets.
However, the CPI headline is only one factor. Core inflation, employment data, Fed guidance, and the bond market’s existing expectations will also matter.
⚠️ 4. WHAT TRADERS SHOULD WATCH
✅ Brent crude and WTI price movements.
✅ Headline CPI versus market expectations.
✅ Core CPI for signs of broader inflation pressure.
✅ The 10-year Treasury yield after the release.
✅ The dollar’s reaction and changes in Fed rate expectations.
💡 MY MARKET VIEW
I would avoid chasing oil after a sharp move or making a major Treasury position change based on headlines alone. The key is whether the CPI report surprises markets and whether yields confirm the move.
A hot reading could renew pressure on bonds, while a cooler report could offer relief. Neither outcome is guaranteed, and markets can move in the opposite direction if expectations are already priced in.
👀 THE BIG QUESTION: What are you watching most closely ahead of CPI — another move higher in oil, or a breakout in Treasury yields?
Share your view below! 👇
#cpiwatch #CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries
$CL
⚠️ Educational purposes only. Not financial advice (NFA). Always do your own research (DYOR).
215
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#cpiwatch
What if oil stays above $100, but Treasury yields move lower?
That divergence could reveal what the market is actually worried about.
On October 13, Brent crude was trading around $106 per barrel as Middle East supply risks collided with expectations of additional oil supply. The market was volatile, not moving in one direction.
Now comes the next test: US September CPI, scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 AM ET (6:00 PM IST).
Current forecasts put headline inflation near 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August. Core CPI is expected around 2.5%. These are forecasts, not actual results.
Here is the distinction I think matters.
Oil can push headline inflation higher. But whether that changes the Treasury outlook depends on how broadly inflation is spreading, what markets have already priced in, and how the Federal Reserve's expected path changes.
Three scenarios deserve attention:
• Hot headline, contained core: Energy could be driving much of the surprise. The market's reaction will depend on whether it sees the pressure as temporary.
• Hot headline and hot core: Expectations for tighter monetary policy could strengthen, putting upward pressure on yields and weighing on Treasury prices.
• Inflation near expectations: The reaction could be muted, or markets could move in either direction as traders reassess existing positions.
My approach is to watch the 2-year Treasury yield for changes in rate expectations and the 10-year yield for the broader bond-market response, alongside Brent crude.
One important distinction: Treasury yields and bond prices generally move in opposite directions, but neither is guaranteed to follow a particular path after CPI.
The real signal isn't simply whether inflation rises. It's whether the data force the market to reconsider what it already believes.
What are you watching more closely: another oil spike or a breakout in Treasury yields?
#CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries
#cpiwatch
What if oil stays above $100, but Treasury yields move lower?
That divergence could reveal what the market is actually worried about.
On October 13, Brent crude was trading around $106 per barrel as Middle East supply risks collided with expectations of additional oil supply. The market was volatile, not moving in one direction.
Now comes the next test: US September CPI, scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 AM ET (6:00 PM IST).
Current forecasts put headline inflation near 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August. Core CPI is expected around 2.5%. These are forecasts, not actual results.
Here is the distinction I think matters.
Oil can push headline inflation higher. But whether that changes the Treasury outlook depends on how broadly inflation is spreading, what markets have already priced in, and how the Federal Reserve's expected path changes.
Three scenarios deserve attention:
• Hot headline, contained core: Energy could be driving much of the surprise. The market's reaction will depend on whether it sees the pressure as temporary.
• Hot headline and hot core: Expectations for tighter monetary policy could strengthen, putting upward pressure on yields and weighing on Treasury prices.
• Inflation near expectations: The reaction could be muted, or markets could move in either direction as traders reassess existing positions.
My approach is to watch the 2-year Treasury yield for changes in rate expectations and the 10-year yield for the broader bond-market response, alongside Brent crude.
One important distinction: Treasury yields and bond prices generally move in opposite directions, but neither is guaranteed to follow a particular path after CPI.
The real signal isn't simply whether inflation rises. It's whether the data force the market to reconsider what it already believes.
What are you watching more closely: another oil spike or a breakout in Treasury yields?
#CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries
What if oil stays above $100, but Treasury yields move lower?
That divergence could reveal what the market is actually worried about.
On October 13, Brent crude was trading around $106 per barrel as Middle East supply risks collided with expectations of additional oil supply. The market was volatile, not moving in one direction.
Now comes the next test: US September CPI, scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 AM ET (6:00 PM IST).
Current forecasts put headline inflation near 3.7% year over year, up from 3.4% in August. Core CPI is expected around 2.5%. These are forecasts, not actual results.
Here is the distinction I think matters.
Oil can push headline inflation higher. But whether that changes the Treasury outlook depends on how broadly inflation is spreading, what markets have already priced in, and how the Federal Reserve's expected path changes.
Three scenarios deserve attention:
• Hot headline, contained core: Energy could be driving much of the surprise. The market's reaction will depend on whether it sees the pressure as temporary.
• Hot headline and hot core: Expectations for tighter monetary policy could strengthen, putting upward pressure on yields and weighing on Treasury prices.
• Inflation near expectations: The reaction could be muted, or markets could move in either direction as traders reassess existing positions.
My approach is to watch the 2-year Treasury yield for changes in rate expectations and the 10-year yield for the broader bond-market response, alongside Brent crude.
One important distinction: Treasury yields and bond prices generally move in opposite directions, but neither is guaranteed to follow a particular path after CPI.
The real signal isn't simply whether inflation rises. It's whether the data force the market to reconsider what it already believes.
What are you watching more closely: another oil spike or a breakout in Treasury yields?
#CPIWatch #OilPrices #Treasuries
1
441
Partiellement vrai
#cpiwatch
🚨 النفط فوق 106 دولارات... وقد يضغط على مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين لشهر سبتمبر! 🛢️🔥
عاودت أسعار النفط الصعود، والتوقيت حساس جدًا
📊 إليك ما يهم الآن:
🛢️ أسعار النفط: إذا واصل الخام صعوده، فقد ترتفع تكاليف الوقود والنقل، مما يزيد الضغط على المستهلكين والشركات ⛽.
📈 مخاطر التضخم: قد تأتي قراءة مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين أعلى من المتوقع، وهو ما يتحدى التوقعات بتراجع التضخم ⚠️.
🏦 عوائد سندات الخزانة: إذا توقع المتداولون تشديدًا في سياسة الفيدرالي، فقد ترتفع العوائد، مما يضغط على أسعار السندات القائمة 📉. وقد تحظى صناديق مثل و باهتمام المتداولين وهم يقيّمون سيناريوهات مختلفة لأسعار الفائدة 👀.
✅ في المقابل: قد تؤدي قراءة أضعف للمؤشر أو تراجع أسعار النفط إلى تخفيف مخاوف التضخم ودعم تعافي سندات الخزانة 🌱.
الأهم هو متابعة البيانات بدلًا من الانجراف وراء العناوين وحدها 🧠. فقد تؤثر أسعار النفط وتوقعات التضخم وعوائد سندات الخزانة جميعها في حركة السوق التالية 🔄.
ينصب تركيزي على كيفية تفاعل عوائد سندات الخزانة مع صدور بيانات مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين، إذ قد يكشف هذا التفاعل ما إذا كانت مخاوف التضخم تتزايد أم بدأت تتلاشى 🔍.
$CL $TMF $TBT #Treasuries #OilPrices #CPIWatch 👀
#cpiwatch
🚨 النفط فوق 106 دولارات... وقد يضغط على مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين لشهر سبتمبر! 🛢️🔥
عاودت أسعار النفط الصعود، والتوقيت حساس جدًا
📊 إليك ما يهم الآن:
🛢️ أسعار النفط: إذا واصل الخام صعوده، فقد ترتفع تكاليف الوقود والنقل، مما يزيد الضغط على المستهلكين والشركات ⛽.
📈 مخاطر التضخم: قد تأتي قراءة مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين أعلى من المتوقع، وهو ما يتحدى التوقعات بتراجع التضخم ⚠️.
🏦 عوائد سندات الخزانة: إذا توقع المتداولون تشديدًا في سياسة الفيدرالي، فقد ترتفع العوائد، مما يضغط على أسعار السندات القائمة 📉. وقد تحظى صناديق مثل و باهتمام المتداولين وهم يقيّمون سيناريوهات مختلفة لأسعار الفائدة 👀.
✅ في المقابل: قد تؤدي قراءة أضعف للمؤشر أو تراجع أسعار النفط إلى تخفيف مخاوف التضخم ودعم تعافي سندات الخزانة 🌱.
الأهم هو متابعة البيانات بدلًا من الانجراف وراء العناوين وحدها 🧠. فقد تؤثر أسعار النفط وتوقعات التضخم وعوائد سندات الخزانة جميعها في حركة السوق التالية 🔄.
ينصب تركيزي على كيفية تفاعل عوائد سندات الخزانة مع صدور بيانات مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين، إذ قد يكشف هذا التفاعل ما إذا كانت مخاوف التضخم تتزايد أم بدأت تتلاشى 🔍.
$CL $TMF $TBT #Treasuries #OilPrices #CPIWatch 👀
🚨 النفط فوق 106 دولارات... وقد يضغط على مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين لشهر سبتمبر! 🛢️🔥
عاودت أسعار النفط الصعود، والتوقيت حساس جدًا
📊 إليك ما يهم الآن:
🛢️ أسعار النفط: إذا واصل الخام صعوده، فقد ترتفع تكاليف الوقود والنقل، مما يزيد الضغط على المستهلكين والشركات ⛽.
📈 مخاطر التضخم: قد تأتي قراءة مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين أعلى من المتوقع، وهو ما يتحدى التوقعات بتراجع التضخم ⚠️.
🏦 عوائد سندات الخزانة: إذا توقع المتداولون تشديدًا في سياسة الفيدرالي، فقد ترتفع العوائد، مما يضغط على أسعار السندات القائمة 📉. وقد تحظى صناديق مثل و باهتمام المتداولين وهم يقيّمون سيناريوهات مختلفة لأسعار الفائدة 👀.
✅ في المقابل: قد تؤدي قراءة أضعف للمؤشر أو تراجع أسعار النفط إلى تخفيف مخاوف التضخم ودعم تعافي سندات الخزانة 🌱.
الأهم هو متابعة البيانات بدلًا من الانجراف وراء العناوين وحدها 🧠. فقد تؤثر أسعار النفط وتوقعات التضخم وعوائد سندات الخزانة جميعها في حركة السوق التالية 🔄.
ينصب تركيزي على كيفية تفاعل عوائد سندات الخزانة مع صدور بيانات مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين، إذ قد يكشف هذا التفاعل ما إذا كانت مخاوف التضخم تتزايد أم بدأت تتلاشى 🔍.
$CL $TMF $TBT #Treasuries #OilPrices #CPIWatch 👀
577
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Гигант BlackRock $14 ТРЛН под управлением завершает свой 6-летний медвежий тренд по казначейским облигациям США!
Крупнейший управляющий миром понизил рейтинг акций США до НЕЙТРАЛЬНОГО и переходит в краткосрочные облигации.
Почему именно сейчас?
Доходность облигаций достигла многолетних максимумов, а рынки заложили слишком много повышений ставок ФРС. Начинается масштабная ротация капитала из акций в облигации?
$BTC $ETH $XRP
#BlackRock #USFinance #Treasuries
Гигант BlackRock $14 ТРЛН под управлением завершает свой 6-летний медвежий тренд по казначейским облигациям США!
Крупнейший управляющий миром понизил рейтинг акций США до НЕЙТРАЛЬНОГО и переходит в краткосрочные облигации.
Почему именно сейчас?
Доходность облигаций достигла многолетних максимумов, а рынки заложили слишком много повышений ставок ФРС. Начинается масштабная ротация капитала из акций в облигации?
$BTC $ETH $XRP
#BlackRock #USFinance #Treasuries
Крупнейший управляющий миром понизил рейтинг акций США до НЕЙТРАЛЬНОГО и переходит в краткосрочные облигации.
Почему именно сейчас?
Доходность облигаций достигла многолетних максимумов, а рынки заложили слишком много повышений ставок ФРС. Начинается масштабная ротация капитала из акций в облигации?
$BTC $ETH $XRP
#BlackRock #USFinance #Treasuries
2
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Haussier
Vérifié
на жовтневе підвищення ставки Kalshi зараз дає 20.5¢. а 10-річні облігації США 1 жовтня торкались 5.342%, вище не було з 2002
#fomcвідстеження , свіжі цифри:
- по CME тиждень тому підвищення в жовтні рахували десь на 64%, в понеділок близько 23%
- ціни в послугах по ISM 74, максимум з липня 2022
- 30-річні в понеділок по Treasury 5.66%
- на грудень Kalshi вже 74.5¢
жовтень ринок майже викреслив. а облігації дивляться далі, на інфляцію і грудень, і їм пофіг, шо ФРС скаже 28-го
за паузу в жовтні я досі. просто пауза кредит не здешевить, якщо довгі ставки ростуть самі
в $BTC я так і не зайшов, BNB зі стейблами лежать де лежали, в Simple Earn Flexible
завтра о 21:00 за Києвом протокол вересневого засідання. гляну, чи там хтось уже говорив про довгі ставки, і розберу тут. стежите за тегом - підписуйтесь
#ФРС #Treasuries
на жовтневе підвищення ставки Kalshi зараз дає 20.5¢. а 10-річні облігації США 1 жовтня торкались 5.342%, вище не було з 2002
#fomcвідстеження , свіжі цифри:
- по CME тиждень тому підвищення в жовтні рахували десь на 64%, в понеділок близько 23%
- ціни в послугах по ISM 74, максимум з липня 2022
- 30-річні в понеділок по Treasury 5.66%
- на грудень Kalshi вже 74.5¢
жовтень ринок майже викреслив. а облігації дивляться далі, на інфляцію і грудень, і їм пофіг, шо ФРС скаже 28-го
за паузу в жовтні я досі. просто пауза кредит не здешевить, якщо довгі ставки ростуть самі
в $BTC я так і не зайшов, BNB зі стейблами лежать де лежали, в Simple Earn Flexible
завтра о 21:00 за Києвом протокол вересневого засідання. гляну, чи там хтось уже говорив про довгі ставки, і розберу тут. стежите за тегом - підписуйтесь
#ФРС #Treasuries
#fomcвідстеження , свіжі цифри:
- по CME тиждень тому підвищення в жовтні рахували десь на 64%, в понеділок близько 23%
- ціни в послугах по ISM 74, максимум з липня 2022
- 30-річні в понеділок по Treasury 5.66%
- на грудень Kalshi вже 74.5¢
жовтень ринок майже викреслив. а облігації дивляться далі, на інфляцію і грудень, і їм пофіг, шо ФРС скаже 28-го
за паузу в жовтні я досі. просто пауза кредит не здешевить, якщо довгі ставки ростуть самі
в $BTC я так і не зайшов, BNB зі стейблами лежать де лежали, в Simple Earn Flexible
завтра о 21:00 за Києвом протокол вересневого засідання. гляну, чи там хтось уже говорив про довгі ставки, і розберу тут. стежите за тегом - підписуйтесь
#ФРС #Treasuries
6
1.7k
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30年期国债期货TL日内暴涨0.50%！利率下降预期升温，市场流动性或改善，对$BTC和$ETH等加密资产可能是利好信号。#国债期货 #宏观
30-year Treasury futures (TL) surge 0.50%! Rate cut expectations rising, potentially improving market liquidity. Could be good news for $BTC and $ETH. #Treasuries #Macro
30年期国债期货TL日内暴涨0.50%！利率下降预期升温，市场流动性或改善，对$BTC 和$ETH 等加密资产可能是利好信号。#国债期货 #宏观
30-year Treasury futures (TL) surge 0.50%! Rate cut expectations rising, potentially improving market liquidity. Could be good news for $BTC and $ETH . #Treasuries #Macro
30-year Treasury futures (TL) surge 0.50%! Rate cut expectations rising, potentially improving market liquidity. Could be good news for $BTC and $ETH . #Treasuries #Macro
315
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🟢 Treasury yields are cooling down, pulling back from multi-year peaks as HSBC targets 4.65% by year-end 📈 rather than the feared 6% surge. This retreat removes a heavy macro drag on crypto liquidity 💰 as long as ten-year yields stay below the critical 4.8% threshold. Watch upcoming economic data for confirmation of this risk-on reprieve.
Will the ten-year Treasury yield stay capped below 4.8% and unlock a broader crypto rally this quarter? 👇
#treasuries #macro #rates #fed #liquidity
🟢 Treasury yields are cooling down, pulling back from multi-year peaks as HSBC targets 4.65% by year-end 📈 rather than the feared 6% surge. This retreat removes a heavy macro drag on crypto liquidity 💰 as long as ten-year yields stay below the critical 4.8% threshold. Watch upcoming economic data for confirmation of this risk-on reprieve.
Will the ten-year Treasury yield stay capped below 4.8% and unlock a broader crypto rally this quarter? 👇
#treasuries #macro #rates #fed #liquidity
Will the ten-year Treasury yield stay capped below 4.8% and unlock a broader crypto rally this quarter? 👇
#treasuries #macro #rates #fed #liquidity
70
🟢 Los rendimientos del Tesoro se están enfriando, retrocediendo desde máximos de varios años mientras HSBC apunta al 4.65% para fin de año 📈, en lugar del temido aumento del 6%. Este retroceso elimina un fuerte lastre macro sobre la liquidez cripto 💰 siempre que los rendimientos a diez años se mantengan por debajo del umbral crítico del 4.8%. Atentos a los próximos datos económicos para confirmar este respiro de riesgo.
¿Se mantendrá el rendimiento del Tesoro a diez años por debajo del 4.8% y desbloqueará un repunte cripto más amplio este trimestre? 👇
#treasuries #macro #rates #fed #liquidity
🟢 Los rendimientos del Tesoro se están enfriando, retrocediendo desde máximos de varios años mientras HSBC apunta al 4.65% para fin de año 📈, en lugar del temido aumento del 6%. Este retroceso elimina un fuerte lastre macro sobre la liquidez cripto 💰 siempre que los rendimientos a diez años se mantengan por debajo del umbral crítico del 4.8%. Atentos a los próximos datos económicos para confirmar este respiro de riesgo.
¿Se mantendrá el rendimiento del Tesoro a diez años por debajo del 4.8% y desbloqueará un repunte cripto más amplio este trimestre? 👇
#treasuries #macro #rates #fed #liquidity
¿Se mantendrá el rendimiento del Tesoro a diez años por debajo del 4.8% y desbloqueará un repunte cripto más amplio este trimestre? 👇
#treasuries #macro #rates #fed #liquidity
67
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🟢 Доходность казначейских облигаций охлаждается, отступая от многолетних пиков, поскольку HSBC целится в 4.65% к концу года 📈, а не в опасаемый скачок до 6%. Это отступление устраняет тяжелое макро-давление на крипто-ликвидность 💰, пока доходность десятилетних облигаций остается ниже критического порога в 4.8%. Следите за предстоящими экономическими данными для подтверждения этой передышки для риска.
Удержится ли доходность десятилетних казначейских облигаций ниже 4.8% и разблокирует ли более широкий крипто-ралли в этом квартале? 👇
#treasuries #macro #rates #fed #liquidity
🟢 Доходность казначейских облигаций охлаждается, отступая от многолетних пиков, поскольку HSBC целится в 4.65% к концу года 📈, а не в опасаемый скачок до 6%. Это отступление устраняет тяжелое макро-давление на крипто-ликвидность 💰, пока доходность десятилетних облигаций остается ниже критического порога в 4.8%. Следите за предстоящими экономическими данными для подтверждения этой передышки для риска.
Удержится ли доходность десятилетних казначейских облигаций ниже 4.8% и разблокирует ли более широкий крипто-ралли в этом квартале? 👇
#treasuries #macro #rates #fed #liquidity
Удержится ли доходность десятилетних казначейских облигаций ниже 4.8% и разблокирует ли более широкий крипто-ралли в этом квартале? 👇
#treasuries #macro #rates #fed #liquidity
154
·
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Haussier
Vérifié
5% changes the equation. 🇺🇸
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield crossed 5% today — a level not seen since 2023.
Why does it matter?
At these yields, bonds become increasingly competitive with equities, borrowing gets more expensive, and high valuations face a tougher test.
Meanwhile, Wall Street closed lower and semiconductor stocks were hit hard.
Now all eyes turn to the Fed.
The question isn’t just where stocks go next. It’s how much investors are willing to pay for risk when “safe” money yields ~5%.
Would you rather own stocks or Treasuries at these levels?
#Stocks #SP500 #Treasuries #Fed #Investing
5% changes the equation. 🇺🇸
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield crossed 5% today — a level not seen since 2023.
Why does it matter?
At these yields, bonds become increasingly competitive with equities, borrowing gets more expensive, and high valuations face a tougher test.
Meanwhile, Wall Street closed lower and semiconductor stocks were hit hard.
Now all eyes turn to the Fed.
The question isn’t just where stocks go next. It’s how much investors are willing to pay for risk when “safe” money yields ~5%.
Would you rather own stocks or Treasuries at these levels?
#Stocks #SP500 #Treasuries #Fed #Investing
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield crossed 5% today — a level not seen since 2023.
Why does it matter?
At these yields, bonds become increasingly competitive with equities, borrowing gets more expensive, and high valuations face a tougher test.
Meanwhile, Wall Street closed lower and semiconductor stocks were hit hard.
Now all eyes turn to the Fed.
The question isn’t just where stocks go next. It’s how much investors are willing to pay for risk when “safe” money yields ~5%.
Would you rather own stocks or Treasuries at these levels?
#Stocks #SP500 #Treasuries #Fed #Investing
3
697
JAPAN’S U.S. TREASURY POSITION IS NOW A GLOBAL MACRO RISK
Thị trường Nhật đang chịu áp lực mạnh, trong khi một claim đang lan truyền rằng hơn ¥25 nghìn tỷ vốn hóa chứng khoán Nhật bị xóa sổ chỉ trong 10 phút và Nhật đang bán tháo U.S. Treasuries để ngăn thị trường sụp đổ.
Phần “dump toàn bộ U.S. Treasuries” chưa được xác nhận, nhưng câu chuyện lớn hơn đáng lo hơn: lợi suất JGB tăng, yen mạnh lên và BOJ có xu hướng thắt chặt đang khiến dòng vốn Nhật có thêm lý do quay về tài sản trong nước thay vì nắm giữ tài sản Mỹ.
Điều này đặc biệt quan trọng vì Nhật là một trong những chủ nợ nước ngoài lớn nhất của Mỹ. Nếu các nhà đầu tư Nhật giảm nhu cầu đối với U.S. Treasuries, Treasury yields có thể chịu thêm áp lực trong bối cảnh 10Y Mỹ đã tiến sát 5% và dầu vượt $100.
Vài ngày trước, Trung Quốc cũng trở thành tâm điểm của một cú global bond-yield reset khi chênh lệch lợi suất China–U.S. mở rộng mạnh.
China first. Japan next. The Treasury market is watching.
Góc nhìn của mình: vấn đề không phải Nhật “dump Treasury” hay Trung Quốc “bán tài sản”. Rủi ro lớn hơn là global capital đang được định giá lại: lãi suất cao hơn + dầu cao + thanh khoản bị siết = áp lực trực tiếp lên stocks, AI và crypto.
Bạn nghĩ U.S. Treasuries có trở thành mắt xích tiếp theo của cú global liquidity shock này không?
#Macro #Treasuries #bitcoin
JAPAN’S U.S. TREASURY POSITION IS NOW A GLOBAL MACRO RISK
Thị trường Nhật đang chịu áp lực mạnh, trong khi một claim đang lan truyền rằng hơn ¥25 nghìn tỷ vốn hóa chứng khoán Nhật bị xóa sổ chỉ trong 10 phút và Nhật đang bán tháo U.S. Treasuries để ngăn thị trường sụp đổ.
Phần “dump toàn bộ U.S. Treasuries” chưa được xác nhận, nhưng câu chuyện lớn hơn đáng lo hơn: lợi suất JGB tăng, yen mạnh lên và BOJ có xu hướng thắt chặt đang khiến dòng vốn Nhật có thêm lý do quay về tài sản trong nước thay vì nắm giữ tài sản Mỹ.
Điều này đặc biệt quan trọng vì Nhật là một trong những chủ nợ nước ngoài lớn nhất của Mỹ. Nếu các nhà đầu tư Nhật giảm nhu cầu đối với U.S. Treasuries, Treasury yields có thể chịu thêm áp lực trong bối cảnh 10Y Mỹ đã tiến sát 5% và dầu vượt $100.
Vài ngày trước, Trung Quốc cũng trở thành tâm điểm của một cú global bond-yield reset khi chênh lệch lợi suất China–U.S. mở rộng mạnh.
China first. Japan next. The Treasury market is watching.
Góc nhìn của mình: vấn đề không phải Nhật “dump Treasury” hay Trung Quốc “bán tài sản”. Rủi ro lớn hơn là global capital đang được định giá lại: lãi suất cao hơn + dầu cao + thanh khoản bị siết = áp lực trực tiếp lên stocks, AI và crypto.
Bạn nghĩ U.S. Treasuries có trở thành mắt xích tiếp theo của cú global liquidity shock này không?
#Macro #Treasuries #bitcoin
Thị trường Nhật đang chịu áp lực mạnh, trong khi một claim đang lan truyền rằng hơn ¥25 nghìn tỷ vốn hóa chứng khoán Nhật bị xóa sổ chỉ trong 10 phút và Nhật đang bán tháo U.S. Treasuries để ngăn thị trường sụp đổ.
Phần “dump toàn bộ U.S. Treasuries” chưa được xác nhận, nhưng câu chuyện lớn hơn đáng lo hơn: lợi suất JGB tăng, yen mạnh lên và BOJ có xu hướng thắt chặt đang khiến dòng vốn Nhật có thêm lý do quay về tài sản trong nước thay vì nắm giữ tài sản Mỹ.
Điều này đặc biệt quan trọng vì Nhật là một trong những chủ nợ nước ngoài lớn nhất của Mỹ. Nếu các nhà đầu tư Nhật giảm nhu cầu đối với U.S. Treasuries, Treasury yields có thể chịu thêm áp lực trong bối cảnh 10Y Mỹ đã tiến sát 5% và dầu vượt $100.
Vài ngày trước, Trung Quốc cũng trở thành tâm điểm của một cú global bond-yield reset khi chênh lệch lợi suất China–U.S. mở rộng mạnh.
China first. Japan next. The Treasury market is watching.
Góc nhìn của mình: vấn đề không phải Nhật “dump Treasury” hay Trung Quốc “bán tài sản”. Rủi ro lớn hơn là global capital đang được định giá lại: lãi suất cao hơn + dầu cao + thanh khoản bị siết = áp lực trực tiếp lên stocks, AI và crypto.
Bạn nghĩ U.S. Treasuries có trở thành mắt xích tiếp theo của cú global liquidity shock này không?
#Macro #Treasuries #bitcoin
122
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Corporate Bitcoin treasuries fail when companies mistake a long-term store of value for a rainy-day fund.
Treating high-volatility assets like a checking account is a recipe for disaster. Firms that force Bitcoin to cover payroll hit a liquidity mismatch, much like a homeowner unable to buy groceries because their wealth is trapped in bricks and mortar. Smart treasury management requires a hard line between reserve assets and daily operating cash.
$BTC $ETH #TreasuryManagement #RealWorldAssets #Treasuries
Corporate Bitcoin treasuries fail when companies mistake a long-term store of value for a rainy-day fund.
Treating high-volatility assets like a checking account is a recipe for disaster. Firms that force Bitcoin to cover payroll hit a liquidity mismatch, much like a homeowner unable to buy groceries because their wealth is trapped in bricks and mortar. Smart treasury management requires a hard line between reserve assets and daily operating cash.
$BTC $ETH #TreasuryManagement #RealWorldAssets #Treasuries
Treating high-volatility assets like a checking account is a recipe for disaster. Firms that force Bitcoin to cover payroll hit a liquidity mismatch, much like a homeowner unable to buy groceries because their wealth is trapped in bricks and mortar. Smart treasury management requires a hard line between reserve assets and daily operating cash.
$BTC $ETH #TreasuryManagement #RealWorldAssets #Treasuries
63
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Các nhà đầu tư on-chain đang ồ ạt "săn yield" từ Trái phiếu Chính phủ Mỹ mã hóa (tokenized US Treasuries). Tổng vốn hóa của các quỹ Trái phiếu trên chuỗi vừa chạm mốc kỷ lục 16,2 tỷ USD, tăng 77% tính từ đầu năm đến nay. Sự bùng nổ này được thúc đẩy bởi nhu cầu ngày càng tăng trong việc tìm kiếm lợi suất an toàn trực tiếp trên blockchain thông qua các tín phiếu kho bạc Mỹ (T-Bills).
#RWA #Treasuries #Onchain
$DOGE $ETH $APT
Các nhà đầu tư on-chain đang ồ ạt "săn yield" từ Trái phiếu Chính phủ Mỹ mã hóa (tokenized US Treasuries). Tổng vốn hóa của các quỹ Trái phiếu trên chuỗi vừa chạm mốc kỷ lục 16,2 tỷ USD, tăng 77% tính từ đầu năm đến nay. Sự bùng nổ này được thúc đẩy bởi nhu cầu ngày càng tăng trong việc tìm kiếm lợi suất an toàn trực tiếp trên blockchain thông qua các tín phiếu kho bạc Mỹ (T-Bills).
#RWA #Treasuries #Onchain
$DOGE $ETH $APT
#RWA #Treasuries #Onchain
$DOGE $ETH $APT
134
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