🔥 Hot CPI? Watch whether yields agree before acting.

My conditional bearish-bond scenario needs two things: inflation above consensus and a sustained rise in long-term Treasury yields.

For traders watching the U.S.-listed $TBT
ETF, an illustrative plan is:

✅ After the regular U.S. session opens, mark the first 15-minute range.
✅ Wait for a later 15-minute close above its high.
✅ Look for a retest that holds before considering entry.
🛑 Define a stop below the retest low.
🎯 Only consider the setup if nearby resistance leaves room for at least twice the planned risk.

If yields reverse or TBT falls back into the range, reassess.

TBT targets −2× its Treasury index’s daily return. It is not a direct bet on the CPI number, and multi-day results can differ substantially.

Pre-release scenario—not an active signal.

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