If one CPI print can wreck your entire investment thesis, inflation might not be your biggest problem. Your position size might be.
The bond market has already moved. Has your risk management caught up? đ
The attached TradingView snapshot for October 13 shows:
âą US 10-year yield: 5.217%, versus 4.032% a year ago.
âą US 30-year yield: 5.563%, versus 4.630% a year ago.
Thatâs roughly 119 and 93 basis points higher, respectively. Markets havenât been sitting around waiting for Septemberâs CPI.
My view: a good portion of the inflation concern is already priced in. That doesnât mean all of it isâor that every move in yields comes from inflation.
I still lean toward higher Treasury yields and further pressure on existing fixed-rate bond prices. A softer CPI print could challenge that view in the short term.
But I donât believe a long-term investment plan should need rewriting every time inflation lands or oil jumps. Persistent changes in the fundamentals deserve a rethink. Every nervous candle doesnât.
If your plan only works when every number comes in friendly, how solid was that plan?
What would actually change your thesis after CPIâand what would merely test your nerves?
Source: TradingView US Treasury yield curves, October 13, 2026.
#CPIWatch #Treasuries #Inflation
The bond market has already moved. Has your risk management caught up? đ
The attached TradingView snapshot for October 13 shows:
âą US 10-year yield: 5.217%, versus 4.032% a year ago.
âą US 30-year yield: 5.563%, versus 4.630% a year ago.
Thatâs roughly 119 and 93 basis points higher, respectively. Markets havenât been sitting around waiting for Septemberâs CPI.
My view: a good portion of the inflation concern is already priced in. That doesnât mean all of it isâor that every move in yields comes from inflation.
I still lean toward higher Treasury yields and further pressure on existing fixed-rate bond prices. A softer CPI print could challenge that view in the short term.
But I donât believe a long-term investment plan should need rewriting every time inflation lands or oil jumps. Persistent changes in the fundamentals deserve a rethink. Every nervous candle doesnât.
If your plan only works when every number comes in friendly, how solid was that plan?
What would actually change your thesis after CPIâand what would merely test your nerves?
Source: TradingView US Treasury yield curves, October 13, 2026.
#CPIWatch #Treasuries #Inflation